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Chrisprattalpharaptr

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joined 2022 November 15 02:36:44 UTC
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Chrisprattalpharaptr


								

								

								
								
								

								
							
					
 
				


				
Ave Imperaptor

				
				
				

				

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					joined 2022 November 15 02:36:44 UTC
				


				
					

					
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				Small-Scale Question Sunday for February 15, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Real OGs were playing UMS on brood wars, and it's gone f2p.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of February 2, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


Poopgate is just the natural result of the claims that Trump wears suit jackets with large tails so he can hide evidence of soiling himself. The story was, and is, that he's not just Evil, he's also dementia-riddled and hence losing control of his bowels.




Did you watch the video? Someone was having a bad time. I don't have Trump's soiled diapers to rub in your face, but even if I did, you wouldn't believe me then. /shrug




Though I do note how you wove in that last sentence about Trump's mental faculties: are you claiming the Poopgate et al. videos are true, or is it simply a case of "who cares if they're true, so long as the stick beats the dog?"




Again, the video itself is 'true' insofar as it exists and isn't doctored by AI to my knowledge. The point of the last line is that Trump could deteriorate fairly quickly in the next few years similarly to Biden. I'm not sure why you'd leap to insinuating that the point is to undermine the public's confidence in Trump, why my point is that the ground truth could be mental decline.




Looking at your linked map, for instance, there's an odd clustering on the Connecticut/New York state border. And the areas with low immunisation include New York state, whereas West Virginia has high immunisation coverage. Minnesota, that impeccably Blue state, also has low coverage. So "voted for Trump" does not seem to be correlation, much less cause.




Looking at the state level is misguided. Every red state has blue urban centers, and every blue state has red rural counties. More granularly:




The Northeast, Midwest, Northwest, and Pacific coast had high MMR vaccine uptake, and clusters of high coverage were concentrated in the Northeast and Upper Midwest. Low coverage was seen in West Texas, southern New Mexico, northern Arizona, parts of Mississippi, and the rural Southeast.






At the state level, county-aggregated estimates ranged from 61.6% in New Mexico to 79.1% in Massachusetts (median, 71.3%). County-level estimates showed even wider variation, with a median uptake of 71.4% (range, 35.8% to 86.8%). Counties with the lowest uptake were mainly in Georgia, Mississippi, and Texas, with the highest coverage in parts of Indiana, New York, and Oregon.






So, uh, let's blame those Ukrainian Mennonite Mormon Trump voters?




I grant that they aren't garden-variety Trump voters, but do you think Mennonites vote for Harris?


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of February 2, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


What counts as "corrupt" is open to a lot of discussion, but I don't think the institutions have always been this incompetent. Just look at NASA.




HIV was discovered in the early 1980s, a few years after AIDS was recognized as a disease. The first drug was AZT 4 years later (6-7 years after the pandemic started), and that was a stroke of luck in that they repurposed an oncology drug that just happened to have activity against HIV. The first protease inhibitor (something designed specifically to target an HIV protein) was mid 90s, or ~15 years later.


Contrast that to COVID-19, where we had a bajillion genome sequences within months of the virus spreading, RNA-Seq datasets from infected patient lungs which led to a number of therapeutic trials (unfortunately didn't pan out, but still good shots on goal). We had paxlovid (a COVID-19 specific protease inhibitor) within a year. We had mRNA vaccines in a similar timeframe, which were more effective than anything we'd seen prior and outperformed anything the Chinese could do - how many other American institutions can say the same? That's about a 10x compression in timelines for identifying, characterizing and developing drugs to an emerging virus.


All of this, pearls before swine. Hundreds of thousands? Millions? of man hours by people like me all so some retard on twitter can go viral (no pun intended) for writing some hysterical slop about how the mRNA vaccines are going to cause mass infertility/blood clots/insta-death (how did all those predictions pan out?). The public has no idea how much effort is expended on things you would never think of - pharmacology, every manufacturing/storage/distribution step, toxicology and safety, in vitro and preclinical models. The public is ignorant of how far we've come, and the oceans of sweat and tears and grinding in the lab that have built this edifice to improve their lives.


Half the country saying the FDA moved too quickly, mRNA vaccines are dangerous, blah blah blah. Other half saying they have the blood of hundreds of thousands on their hands. Half the country saying lockdowns are ineffective (as if China didn't exist), the other half that the government doesn't care about their safety and people are dying. Maybe in addition to the internet, the other thing that's changed is everyone with a twitter account feels entitled to weigh in on every issue.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of February 2, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


Can you sit down and read an RCT and determine if it has fraudulent data?




Not if they just make up or fudge the numbers. In my field I can catch most of the bullshit that isn't outright lying. If it's far enough outside my wheelhouse, almost certainly not.




Thus people have to fall back on cruder heuristics such as "do I trust this institution." Keeping that trust is part of the institution. And, well, if an institution explodes its institutional trust it's pretty fair to assign at least some of the blame for the resulting fire to the institution for deceiving people.




When half the country is panicking and wants lockdowns, and half the country is enraged and fedposting about civil liberties, how exactly is an institution supposed to maintain credibility with the entire population? If Fauci had noped out day one and been replaced by a COVID mega-dove, you still would have burned credibility with half the country. We'd just be having this conversation with inverse valence.


I maintain that:


    

  1. The lockdowns were popular in the beginning.
    2. 

  2. Institutions have historically always been this level of corrupt/incompetent, and all that changed was the internet.
    3. 

  3. It's nevertheless still optimal on the societal and individual level to largely trust the institutions.
    4. 



				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of February 2, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


Overall I would say July-August is when the oh-shit moment comes and it becomes obvious they could lose the eastern half of the country.




Alright, we'll see if I remember to check back in this summer.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of February 2, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


You're an actual expert on this stuff.




The bitter lessons of COVID were that my colleagues and I aren't epidemiologists, our actual specialty is worthless for making predictions in the real world and internet autists with sufficient time and motivation are at least as knowledgeable about the literature. At this point, a literate caveman with GPT terminal debating me about the literature would be like watching stockfish demolish a grade school chess class.




But the common rebuttal I've seen from right-wingers is that Canada is seeing a proportionally worse increase with no RFK. The "other" factor they point to that both nations have in common over the relevant time frame is mass immigration from nations with much lower overall vaccination rates.




I was actually unaware of the outbreak in Canada. Seems like I was wrong and @The_Nybbler was right, it's the mennonite communities in Canada/Texas and apparently 'Slavic' (Ukrainian? Russian? Apparently services are held in both) immigrants in South Carolina. Not really your garden variety Trump supporters. Mea culpa.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of February 2, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


If we had a vaccine that reliably stopped influenza (instead of the bullshit yearly one people try taking which misses 75% of the time)




Supposedly it reduces symptoms more than prevents you from getting sick in the first place, but I haven't dug into the clinical literature.


As for the rest - I was joking. I am pro MMR.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of February 2, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Sorry, I was actively looking at the thread I had in mind and just forgot to link it. It's this one.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of February 2, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


I was personally very saddened to learn that the FDA is going to begin cracking down on compounding pharmacies offering products which mimic branded pharmaceutical products.




I haven't taken the time to properly verify, but I have heard that the compounded forms of the oral GLP-1s are worthless. GLP-1 peptides are too large to cross the gut and just get degraded, you need an additional mix of chemicals to essentially irritate the gut and let some of the peptides through. Even then, the bioavailability is trash.


The injected forms may suffer from QA issues, I wouldn't know.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of February 2, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


In 1964 there were 458,000 measles cases, and 421 deaths, over a smaller population, no lockdowns.




How barbaric. Our ancestors were truly uncivilized.




There has been a small general drop in vaccination, but it's not clear if it has had a significant effect.




It's...not? I mean, I guess I don't have healthcare records for every measles patient, but are you genuinely going to make the argument that a nearly 100x increase in measles cases, centered around political strongholds for the vaccine-skeptical party and away from population centers, is due to some other factor?  What would that be?




The general drop you can blame on government overreaction to COVID.




No, I think I'll blame the people who choose to not get vaccinated instead. Unless you'd like to make the argument that vaccine-skeptics lack the mental capacity to be assigned agency?


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of February 2, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
A number of stories I vaguely follow have largely been ignored by this space. To start discussion:


Ukraine


Back in November, there was discussion about the imminent fall of Pokrovsk, encirclement of Ukrainian troops and collapse of the frontline:




Going by the aphorism 'If you're reading this, it's for you', it looks like the American press is preparing the public for a closing act of the majestic capeshit arc that started with the Maidan massacre. Ukrainians are generally eager to negotiate, nobody believes in winning anymore




It seems like the capeshit arc rages on, and yet another prediction of Ukrainian (or Russian, for that matter) collapse goes in the dustbin. Deepstatemap shows the UA holding onto a corner of Pokrovsk, the ISW map doesn't seem to have moved significantly, there haven't been any MSM news articles on Pokrovsk since December (?!), Russian economic collapse seems yet to materialize. Does anyone have more insight?


Measles makes a comeback in the US - who wants some lockdowns?


2025 recorded ~2500 measles cases in the US, and 733 recorded so far in 2026. This is the highest number of cases since about 1990, and for the 90s/2000s we saw low double-digit numbers of cases. A handful of children have died. Solely based on the numbers, I think you'd expect a case or two of encephalitis but I'm unsure. The biggest outbreaks are in Spartanburg county, South Carolina (Trump - 66% of the vote),  Gaines county, Texas (Trump won 91% of the vote) and Mohave county, Arizona (Trump won 77% of the vote). As far as I can tell, there are no real cities in any of these counties. We're seeing a remarkable inversion where historically infectious disease outbreaks would start in the cities and people would flee to the suburbs/countryside. Maybe my next startup idea should be a chain of sanatoriums (sanatoria?) in NYC or SF.


Trans identification decreasing?


Several months late to the party, but in October a study came out suggesting the number of trans students applying to Brown had roughly halved, yoy. I suppose it's early to be declaring victory given that the data/methodology don't seem particularly rock-solid, but I'm definitely chalking it as evidence supporting my claim that there is a hardcore group of genuinely trans people, while the significant increases were rebellious teens and some better way to rebel will crop up to replace it. At the least, it's evidence that the doomers and blackpillers claiming lines go up are wrong.


Anecdotally, I've heard gen Z college students get off on being offensive. In 15-20 years Millenials will be even more deeply uncool and taking the place of boomers, while the alphas and betas rebel and move leftwards to areas we can't even imagine (but get ready for AI girlfriends. They'll be called AI-Attracted Individuals, and I'm planting a flag in the AIAI acronym right now).


Poopgate


In the most momentous news since Biden fell off a bike, leftist social media has been circulating a Forbes video claiming to show Trump soiling himself at the 0:34 mark (you'll have to find it on youtube yourself, sorry - and turn up your audio). We've now been blessed with Yahoo News' headline 'No credible evidence Trump pooped himself during executive order signing', which is interesting given the video that millions of people have watched.


It will be interesting watching Trump's mental faculties evolve over the next three years. Biden was notably sharper in 2020 than in his disastrous 2024 debate performance. Presumably Trump won't tolerate handlers the same way Biden did, so it seems like a situation that could rapidly dissolve into a ahem shitshow.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of February 2, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


At risk of drawing mod ire for being excessively glib




I'm no narc, you can be as pedantic and annoying as you like.




no, the baby isn't expressing anything because it can't read and didn't pick the shirt.




Your babies are just dumb compared to mine.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of February 2, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


It matters if I am now expected to say, as Just Being Courteous Nothing More, that a biological father is, in fact, a biological mother.




So the whole legal discussion was just a sideshow for coming back to the main externality, which is that some people expect you to say a certain thing and you dislike that?




I may be a Catholic, but even I try to hang on to some shreds of accordance with actuality and physical reality. If I'm supposed to just shrug and go with the flow, then hell why not accept perpetual motion machines, phlogiston, healing crystal vibrations, and drinking bleach to cure autism?




I'm sure you could manage to construct a beliefs system that encompassed the holy ghost, transgenderism and your hatred of Kamala Harris while excluding perpetual motion machines, phlogiston, healing crystals and drinking bleach without too much cognitive dissonance.




In fact it is. The application for citizenship is on the basis of the biological parent who holds Irish citizenship. The mother (woman) isn't an Irish citizen or holding Irish citizenship. The person who fertilised the egg is the one claiming Irish citizenship and requesting it on behalf of the child.




Am I understanding correctly that the child could be granted Irish citizenship if either parent were a citizen? From your post:




Persons born outside of Ireland who have an Irish national grandparent born in Ireland may obtain Irish citizenship through registration with the Foreign Births Register, which is maintained by the Department of Foreign Affairs.






The woman further submits that she could have claimed to be the “father” of the child and “could have possibly obtained citizenship by descent that way”.




So in a hypothetical where an Irish man abroad who can't get it done the old-fashioned way uses an IVF clinic with his own sperm to impregnate his foreign wife, is their child eligible for citizenship? And/or if the subject of your post had filled out the paperwork as father (which, for the record, you would probably still have posted here as evidence of trans hypocrisy), her child would have been granted citizenship?


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of February 2, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


It boils my piss




That sounds unpleasant.




If you're going to smear a 'not insignificant' fraction of his fellow partisans in this community as misogynists, you better have everything cut and dry or I'm going to assume you're talking shit. Name names.




Her fellow partisans.


Naming names is either ban-baiting me or trying to start drama, but if you like, here are incidents where her piss is being boiled -


Here's her and sloot. Number of other comments in that thread.


Took me a while to figure it out, but here's her getting into it with 'The Mountain' guy on her previous account (you can follow her comments on his weekly posts if you like).


Here's what I thought would be the next flameout.


I would call the viewpoint that women are lesser, less agentic, less intelligent, less capable (excluding less physically strong) misogynistic. I don't think these arguments are particularly rare around here. Would you disagree with either point?


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of February 2, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


The government should not assert that the male person who fertilised an egg is the child's mother




But who fertilized the egg is not what is being asserted, and outside of hospitals and genetics studies, 'who fertilized the egg' is not equivalent to 'father.' A baby wearing a shirt saying 'I love my two dads' isn't engaging in science denialism, it's just an expression of their relationship with two same-gender parents. Ditto for children of a remarried widower calling their father's new partner 'mom.' Gattsuru has other examples above.


				

				

						

							

								
    
									
									
									
									
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				Culture War Roundup for the week of February 2, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Careful, you're going to trigger the libertarians.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of February 2, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


Now, I've been gently chided by other commenters on here about my attitude regarding transgender activism. It's only a few edge cases and nothing to do with the reality of trans people's lives, I get told.




Indeed. The pro-trans lobby here is vicious, I'm not surprised you were mauled for daring to bravely express your skepticism of trans activism.




what I do care about is precedent that "trans gender you identify as is now the same as your biological sex, now if you're a trans woman you're a mother even if you're the father because calling you the father would be offensive, even though you are a father not a mother" for future cases. If the precedent is set, it won't be limited to "parent of child wishing to be identified as legal mother not legal father".




Why? What does it matter to you if the state calls her a woman or man, mother or father? At least in the women's sports and prison rape questions I can see the negative externalities, here I don't see how it affects your life at all other than People Are Doing Things You Don't Like. You seem to agree that the child should legally have a right to Irish citizenship so presumably the outcome will be the same either way.




I think my main objection here is the twisted logic on show: "You can't call me a 'father', I'm a woman! women are not fathers!" Yeah, but people with functioning male reproductive systems that are capable of getting cis women pregnant can be women. Uh-huh.




In a future where genuine SRS is possible and she could have first extracted sperm, then either grown a womb or implanted with an artificial one, would you call her a woman? What's your threshold?




But remember, it's just a few crazy college kids, it's only edge cases, and none of this will have effects on your life, straight cis people! It's just asking to be allowed to use the bathroom aligned with their gender identity, nothing more!




Again, I fail to see the effect on your life besides you getting angry about a news story and complaining on the internet.




Years back when I was asking "but what about if someone abuses this?" and was being assured (in a rather patronising manner) that nope, that would never happen ever. Slope, slippery, what that? We can dismiss that happily as just a fallacy, nothing that will ever occur in the real world.




How is this an abuse of the system? The kid is going to get citizenship either way if I'm understanding correctly, it's just a question of what gender/sex the state recognizes this individual as?




Is anyone surprised I'm a cynic?




Not particularly; some not insignificant fraction of your political allies in this community are genuine misogynists who think women have the intellectual fortitude of children and should mind the house. You're attracted to this place because you like complaining about the trans people and the abortions, but you flame out when the leopards inevitably start eating your face.


The modern major general one was good though, can we do that again?


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Friday Fun Thread for January 30, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


I mean, sure, if I absolutely had to, maybe I could have stretched and gotten way less house for way more money with a far worse mortgage a year or two later and been "fine".






Instead I'm great, and it's a hell of a snowball effect.




Glad things worked out for you, and I don't know the specifics of your housing market. At least here, open houses in 2022-2023 had ~50-100 groups swarming them and you needed to be prepared to waive every contingency, plus have 20-40% down and also offer anywhere from 10-20% over asking to be in the running with the final sale often being 30-40% over asking. And even then, sometimes a developer swoops in with a case offer and blows you all out of the water.


Rates were higher in 2024-2025, but houses were only getting 1-2 offers (depending on the price point), and usually around asking. I shudder to think of what's going to happen if rates go back to 2.5%...


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Friday Fun Thread for January 30, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Where would all your peers get the money to push you out of the market? Do you mean literally buy this year or be priced out forever?


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Friday Fun Thread for January 30, 2026
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I made the same argument at the same time, but bought a bit later than you for life reasons. And then recently had to spring for a new one because my 3bed/1 bath wasn't large enough for the family.


Thing is, it mostly turns into a zero sum game. When rates were low, people could make crazy offers on houses because their monthly payments were so low. Now that rates are high, there's less competition and prices...well, they didn’t go down, but they also didn’t go up as much. And you can just refi in 5 years. I think you would've been fine buying a bit later.


My brother, on the other hand, who bought in the early-mid 2010s has seen his home triple in value...