Clavicular
22d ago
I am able to drop the usual model that any reality below the observable works the way the observable one works. Humans are probably incapable of understanding how the universe truly works. I don't think that's a controversial way to model the universe.
But then why the Christian God? I can get to A, but I can't go from A to B.
Clavicular
22d ago
I don’t have theory of mind for an educated person in the 21st century who believes in the Garden of Eden. My reaction is like Dawkins to Mehdi Hasan when Mehdi says he thinks Mohammed flew to heaven on a winged horse and split the moon. I know there are people who believe it, but I’m incapable of understanding how. I don’t want to rehash New Atheism either. I am mostly skeptical of adult converts, especially former rationalists and new atheists. People born into it I actually understand somewhat. I’ve read apologetics too like mere Christianity, and I just don’t get it.
Clavicular
22d ago
If they try to shut it down, could the board just get rid of them? Otherwise, I think you are right. Google and Meta could just hire people who don't care about alignment and pass them fairly quickly. How many weeks/months are they behind Claude and OpenAI?
Clavicular
22d ago
Do the religious people on here actually believe in Christianity? Like do you actually believe that Christ rose from the dead, Garden of Eden, Jesus is the son of God, the Trinity, virgin birth, etc? Or is more Deism and you like the community from going to church? I have a hard time believing most adult converts i.e. JD Vance actually believe these things, but I'm curious if I'm wrong here.
Clavicular
22d ago
This just says to me that black people don't take advantage of the easy opportunities afforded to them, and non-black women do.
Clavicular
22d ago
And if/when the Democrats win, which they are predicted to do? Then what?
Clavicular
22d ago
Is it possible for Trump to lose to you? I'm dead serious, what is a Trump loss to you in the Iran war. You will never make a prediction that you can be held down on. You just declare anything a victory and you can never lose! You do realize you actually have to win a war to win it right? The war isn't over yet, so nobody has won yet. It's tautological. Define an explicit loss scenario for Trump on the Iran War, please. I suspect you won't respond to this with one. You will just say Trump won.
Clavicular
22d ago
I’m just basing it on the past. Trump is the most hawkish on Iran we’ve ever had. Obama did the JCPOA. I’d rather deal with Democrats than Trump in Iran’s shoes. They might be cooked though either way. Like you said, Democrats probably won’t give in to their maximalist demands either, but they may get a better deal. They can’t be seen as being too weak though, so they have their own constraints.
Clavicular
22d ago
That’s why I added the caveat that Iran’s regime is still in tact and that it is a Blue Wave. At least I think I did. I’m just responding on my phone. So what I’m saying is if it is a historically bad defeat AND Iran’s regime is still in power. There are a ton of confounding variables here, but I still would like to see them respond to this. I’ve asked him to make concrete predictions before and he just ignores me. I want him in the record with a condition that would be an L for Trump. Still nothing yet after multiple attempts.
Clavicular
23d ago
We don’t have the answer to this question yet. The war is still ongoing. If Iran’s regime is still in power and attacking shipping after the midterms and the Democrats take the Senate and House will you update or will you still claim that it was an obvious victory for Trump?
Clavicular
23d ago
Democrats winning is objectively better for Iran. They are much more sympathetic to Iran and less so to Israel.
Clavicular
23d ago
Trump ran on this! Do you want me to quote him? He’s your guy that you’re defending. He said it not me! Or is he just a liar (obviously) or incompetent? Or is he too old to even remember what he even says? I believe in free trade and fiscal responsibility. I’m a libertarian. Of course I think Trump’s policies are trash. I’m going to laugh my ass off when plan trusters see his policies get Republicans wiped out on the midterms. I hate Democrats but I can’t say it won’t be fun to watch. The bond market agrees with me. Incoming fed rate increase. I could go on.
Clavicular
23d ago
Going from very high inflation Going from very high inflation to 3% means the rate of price increases has slowed. It doesn’t reverse the cumulative price increases, and 3% is still above the Fed’s 2% target. Trump also got elected on decreasing prices and has made it worse through stupid decisions like tariffs and Iran. Also, saying lowest inflation since 2021 is the MAGA version of there’s more right wing terror attacks than Islamic ones since September 11th. Also completely ignores Trump’s disastrous Covid response to persistent inflation. Trump’s economic policy is not good. This doesn’t take into account his fiscal irresponsibility.
Clavicular
24d ago
Indeed. If you are like me and think inflation is essentially a tax, then this war directly increased the taxes on every American. Not to mention adding to the debt.
Clavicular
24d ago
I followed your instructions and every LLM said with 99% certainty you were trolling and acting in bad faith.
Clavicular
24d ago
The Iran War cost isn’t just their salaries. We’ve spent 37.5 billion so far according to Hegseth. Do you think all those advanced weapons they’ve used are free?
Clavicular
24d ago
This is obviously a troll post. We don’t even know that that’s actually a response from ChatGPT or any LLM. It could have taken 20 responses to get this answer. People have gotten LLMs to agree with their psychotic delusions. I could (and did) get ChatGPT and Claude to say there’s a high likelihood you are trolling. Can you explain why ChatGPT and Claude both think you’re trolling? Why would it give that response if you weren’t trolling?
Clavicular
24d ago
Even if they are fought back quickly, unless they are defeated permanently, then the US is going to have to stay and down billions to keep the oil flowing. The current cost of crude is massively subsidized by the US tax payer. Think about how much additional money each barrel of oil costs right now from the US military having to escort it through. What’s the actual cost when you include interest in the debt?
Do you think white women get a bigger boost than blacks in affirmative action? Look at test scores at elite institutions and who is getting the biggest bump and disabuse yourself of this obviously incorrect leftist talking point. There would be almost 0 black men there without AA and DEI.
Clavicular
24d ago
I asked chat gpt and it told me you are wrong if I make it think of the most charitable interpretation of my argument. That is literally what your argument is. If I wanted to do that I would just talk to chat gpt myself. I feel like what you are doing is performance art because there’s no other explanation for why someone would come on here and do that. You want me to argue with chat gpt with you as a proxy.
Clavicular
25d ago
This is terrible foreboding for the future. People saying look Claude says my interpretation is reasonable. What’s funny is it isn’t even a good argument. Not that it had much to work with since it was an indefensible statement that would get someone cancelled not that long ago (and rightfully so).
Clavicular
1mo ago
He is the head of the Republican Party and can whip Senate and House into doing this or at least actually attempt to. Or build the wall or long term immigration reform or anything that will help this country long term (things he ran on). Democrats will also never cut entitlements their winning issue is MORE healthcare, entitlements, etc. Trump officials also have another reason to win the midterms and the White House and that’s to not go to prison. Which honestly I hope happens because maybe they will see how serious this is instead of fucking around grifting billions and renaming stuff.
Clavicular
1mo ago
The war is unpopular because Trump is incompetent and just did it instead of making the case to the American public. So that is 100% on him. The media hates Trump so he has to take that into account when waging an unnecessary war. Of course, he didn't because he thought it would be a short war (was wrong) and here we are.
And yes the point of winning elections is to do stuff. But you want to do stuff that is actually a good idea and leads to your side winning and getting more of what you want. Not sure how spending all your political capital on an Iran War helps there. If he wanted to do something that is unpopular but has to be done, cutting entitlements or the debt would be a good place to start instead of another war.
Inflation is obviously up since the start of the Iran War i.e. gas prices etc which is clearly what I meant. This isn't even debatable. But sure, it's not the worst ever so I guess count that as a win. But even if it wasn't, people perceive it as up which is all that really matters when you live in a democracy. And they blame Trump for that.
Love it or leave it, but woke.
This weekend, The University of Texas played The Ohio State University in Austin, TX. A screen shot went viral on Twitter showing a crowd of Indian students celebrating the victory.
"Heritage Americans", the dissident right, the Woke Reich, or whatever you want to call them went crazy, pointing out the massive demographic changes in Texas that are happening. This is true. Anyone who has been to Texas knows whites are a minority here in any medium sized and larger city. The changes have been stunning and within 30 years, it is unrecognizable.
Critics rightfully pointed out that they were pretty much just being racist. You talk about integration, and here are immigrants and children of immigrants celebrating a victory in football wearing cowboy hats. What is more American than that? You clearly just don't like Indian people.
An Indian politician said that this is what Texas is. If you don't like it, LEAVE! There is some truth to this. This is what Texas is now, but historically the South Asian population has been tiny. This is a very recent development. Is 20 years all it takes for Texas to become something new? If you are 30 and above, you probably grew up with almost no Indians. Now this is what Texas is and you have to leave if you don't like the changes?
This reminds me of the UK. Pre-Windrush, the UK was 99.9% white. As recently as 1991, it was 95% white. Now though, if you complain, you are going against British values. For thousands of years, the UK was essentially 100% white. Within a few generations, it is a multi-cultural country and if you don't like that, LEAVE! We are not a white society, and actually never were. I could go on and on, but with the exception of Reform, that is the general consensus now.
Back to Texas. It's crazy how quickly this can happen. Mass migration can happen and within one generation, this is seen as the new default and any complaints about this are seen as against the new values. Of course, the biggest gatekeepers of this isn't the left. They really have no control over their outgroup other than canceling people and social pressure, but if you don't care what they think, what can they really do? The center-right has also rushed to condemn people criticizing the massive demographic replacement in Texas. People like Dan Crenshaw rushed to condemn the racism and call out this anti-Indian racism and essentially sided with the left, who hates them. They have essentially said the same thing as the left and that these aren't Texas values to be racist. So basically, love it or leave it, but woke. If you don't like the new Texas, leave.
But where will they go? You basically have to live in a state like Texas for access to the best jobs. schools, dating, etc. It's insane to me how fast we can accept something new that is unprecedented as the new normal without considering the consequences. Only weirdos and disagreeable people point this out, and by the time people start to see the consequences, it will be too late (assuming there are negative consequences, which should be obvious is my POV).
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