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Goodguy  3hr ago (text post)   Edited 12m ago   1008 thread views

Midterms Megathread

Cause otherwise midterms discussion will be scattered around a bunch of separate Culture War thread posts. And it's nice to have more off-the-cuff rapid reactions in a dedicated megathread.

The first thing I've noticed so far: if the exit polls are correct, Americans are very pessimistic about AI.

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Assuming it is indeed a blue bloodbath, who we liking for 2028 Republican Presidential nominee?

Can I propose... Ron DeSantis?

He's the only Republican coming away from this looking good.

Democrat sweep over 99% on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/balance-of-power-2026-midterms

Knew I should have put some money down, perhaps I had too little faith in American voters (hard, I know)...

Soon, America will be just like Britain and India. Yay?

Unironically neither of those two countries are bad places to live once you understand how they function (and are decently skilled enough to avoid the worst types).

So @The_Nybbler, any good whiskey and cigar recommendations? Thinking of starting a habit.

Republicans won here in my state of florida, but damn so far Texas isnt looking hot.

Silly question - Americans talking about a big Democratic win in this election are using aquatic metaphors like waves and tsunamis. Whatever happened to the good old landslide?

Single races = land. Multiple races = water

So far this is looking like an absolute massacre.

You don't have to follow through on a promise to pay $5k to each voter following a Republican win if you instead make enough blunders that the Republicans lose.

Turnout was remarkably high in my (heavily blue) neighborhood when I went to vote tonight. My subjective impression was that it was actually busier than around the same time of night in 2024, and I overheard some of the volunteers talking about it too, so that may even have been true (doubtful, honestly, but still really surprisingly high turnout).

Just another little bit of anecdata in favor of my gut feeling that the polls are mostly right this time around and this is going to be a bloodbath for the GOP. We shall see…

Gina Hinojosa 88% to win Texas governor.

I was mentally prepared for Talarico to win, but this is going to potentially impact my day-to-day life. This is now a cope thread.

Do I need to buy a gun? Should I think about moving to Florida?

Texas is a huge market for business. What happens to stocks tomorrow?

All I know is that Talarico is very good. Scott Aaronson endorsed him which is enough for me.

What's actually going on with Abbott? I don't follow Texas politics at all so I have no idea, I thought Abbott had it on lock even though I expected Dems to probably take both the House and the Senate. Unlike the House/Senate map, in which prediction markets have had Dems doing well for a while now, the Hinojosa rise seems to just date back to... today.

I think it's the gas prices. Most people here drive pickup trucks.

Texas has had a Republican governor ever since George W. Bush defeated Ann Richards in 1994. People were ready to give the backup quarterback a few snaps so to speak.

It’s already a bloodbath with Nasdaq futures down 1.5 percent.

Democrat Annie Andrews favored to win South Carolina Senate. Some were predicting that the polls could be off and it looks like they were right: Dems are overperforming the polls.

Eh, i dunno -- AFAICT pretty much everywhere has been counting whatever forms of early/mail-in ballots they have first -- so you could be seeing some blue mirage action with only 25% counted and a pretty small margin?

Florida senate was leaning blue until like 80% counted!

Please be true. Prediction markets are looking very ugly for Republicans.

IDK, the SC margin seems like it's stretching as they count lol, so what do I know!

While it's nice that Florida came around, a two percent margin there seems a bit concerning?

Florida House results are looking interesting. The Republicans have avoided a dummymander by the skin of their teeth - based on current leads they are going to get a 17-11 split of the seats while winning both statewide races 51-49 or so. But a lot of districts which were drawn as safeish R are ending up in recount territory.

On the other hand, so far it looks like congratulations to the NC GOP for a perfect dummymander. After multiple rounds of litigation they finally managed to draw a map which was supposed to be 11-3, but Dems are leading in all 14 districts according to CNN.

Ah, if it isn't the consequences of their own actions...

Decision Desk HQ projects Jon Ossoff wins the GA US Senate General Election #DecisionMade: 7:18 PM EST

Ladies and gentlemen, your 2028 Democratic presidential nominee.

Unironically I can see him as being presidential material. He looks kind, unlike pretty much all recent candidates since Obama/Romney.

He's Jewish, so it seems unlikely

No way he gets past Queen Kamala.

Kamala is not gonna be the nominee. When she actually faced a primary she dropped out before any votes were cast she was polling so low.

The black machine politicians who determine Democratic primaries don't want four years of President Vance, so Kamala is unlikely to be the nominee.

My prediction is that the polls will turn out to be pretty much correct, and it’ll be a disastrous night for Republicans. Not by any means a bold prediction, but I’ve seen an awful lot of right-wing hopium on this site over the past few days.

Polls are wrong, Dems are outperforming...

Not looking good for the GOP, one of the first races countrd is FL13 Ana Paulina Luna's district. Pre election polymarket had her at 75% amf she won in 2024 54-45 and similarly in 2022. She's about 2300 votes ahead tonight 49.4-48.8!

Momentous news. Guam has flipped R!

I want to see Trump float them as a state and, obv, not float Puerto Rico as a state

Do the Northern Marianas Islands get to vote?

What about Wake Island?

They get to elect a non-voting representative.

It's had a Republican governor about 50% of the time since it began having governors.

Where Guam goes, so does the nation

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