TheDemonRazgriz
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User ID: 3577
TheDemonRazgriz
8d ago
Do we know for sure that the recent Liverpool one was an “attack”? Is there a known or accused motive? I admittedly have not paid much attention to the story but my first impression when it happened was that he might’ve just been very drunk.
TheDemonRazgriz
9d ago
till my death I will point to elevatorgate as the crystallization of feminism+racism+mental issues in the social justice caucus
What is "elevatorgate"?
TheDemonRazgriz
12d ago
If i were a US rival i'd be buying up lots of farmland around US military bases and industry
China has indeed been doing that.
I would give a strong endorsement to The War Zone (twz.com), although they’re more news than analysis, really, and so maybe not quite what you’re looking for. A lot of defense industry news and more technical articles as well. They do have their biases (in the current conflicts that’s fairly strongly pro-Ukraine and mildly pro-Israel, if memory serves) but they generally keep them in check and provide very detailed and thorough reporting. I’ve been reading them for a long while now and they rarely disappoint. In the early days of the Ukraine war they were probably the single best source for a picture of what was going on, even breaking some events first at times, and they’ve built up a good level of access to officials and industry types (especially considering they’re an independent outfit) to get interesting stories.
TheDemonRazgriz
19d ago
Based on the circumstances of the arrest (carrying his ID, the weapon, and a mini-manifesto) I think he DID want to be caught. I suspect he came up with an escape strategy as part of his original plan, but then after going through with the act decided here’s rather be famous than get away with it.
TheDemonRazgriz
22d ago
Im sure DC spends big amounts of money on security for the Israeli embassy
Notably this attack did not take place AT the embassy. The staffers were shot leaving an event at the Jewish Museum.
TheDemonRazgriz
30d ago
You weren’t even a real customer, you didn’t buy anything! She could’ve told you to piss off and make space for paying customers. You could have been a journalist (honestly this is much more likely than the reality of you just being some guy who was curious), and if she was quoted or her store was mentioned in an article she could get in trouble with corporate. And who really wants to talk to a journalist at work anyway? Especially right at the start of a shift.
My opinion of the average current-year-plus-ten starbucks barista is not that high either, granted, but you were not helping yourself here. If you really wanted an answer, you should’ve ordered a small black coffee (or whatever) and asked your question while she was ringing you up.
TheDemonRazgriz
1mo ago
Having gone through engineering school pretty recently, I would say that it is different, just perhaps not as different as you’d probably like it to be.
TheDemonRazgriz
1mo ago
I didn't know India used Meteors, thanks for that -- so they do have range -- but yes the AESA seeker radar is what I believe gives the PL-15 its edge over India's air-to-air arsenal. I'll confess to not having much knowledge of how modern radars actually work in detail (I know what AESA means conceptually but not much about the implications in context) but my understanding is that it gives a significant improvement against countermeasures compared to older weapons.
TheDemonRazgriz
1mo ago
Yeah I'm a little too young to sell that one, lol. Although, funny enough, my family computer growing up was a Mac...
Yes, my initial skepticism was... well, not exactly unwarranted, but neither was it correct. French intelligence now confirms one Rafale was shot down (and at least one or two other Indian fighters are being reported shot down in increasingly-credible media), and the use of the PL-15 missiles (for the first time in combat, incidentally) is separately also confirmed -- I suspect those two things are connected. Pakistan's increasingly close relationship with China seems to be paying off for it (and China is surely getting some valuable combat performance data as well).
I would continue to emphasize caution when seeing the stream of wreckage photos (I recall in particular seeing one photo of a crashed Indian jet yesterday that was actually from a previous round of India-Pakistan fighting) but Pakistan does seem to be asserting a meaningful technological edge in the air, thanks to their Chinese purchases.
India does have conventional superiority through sheer force of numbers, yes, but I wouldn't call the margin gigantic necessarily -- a significant amount of Indian forces are located away from the Pakistani border, and Pakistan does have some technological advantages with modern Chinese and semi-modern American missiles and radars that can outrange Indian kit, at least under certain circumstances. This appears to have come into play already -- French intelligence has confirmed that one Rafale fighter was indeed shot down, and it's looking increasingly credible that at least one or two other Indian jets were shot down during the Indian strike mission and/or in air-to-air fighting over Kashmir, as well. Relatedly there is strong evidence that Pakistan deployed Chinese-made PL-15 missiles as part of their counter-air operation, the first use of the type in combat -- these are more or less state-of-the-art missiles, at least comparable to the American AMRAAM and quite possibly superior, including modern radar/seeker tech that is supposed to be more effective against countermeasures than older weapons. They are likely superior to anything India can field and, at least on paper, represent a qualitative jump from Pakistani capabilities in past conflicts.
So, I do think India would win pretty decisively in a truly full-scale war, but Pakistan may think they can bleed India enough on the way up the escalation ladder that India will get off the ladder before the war reaches the scale where India's numerical advantage comes fully into play. This is not a gamble I personally would bet my country on, but Pakistan's government is notably a dysfunctional autocracy and the public appears to be swept up in nationalistic war fever (and the same applies to India, albeit a bit less dysfunctional and a bit less autocratic); these are not conditions that lead to cautious decision making.
Notably, as of now Pakistan is still publicly vowing to retaliate for the Indian retaliation -- if they choose to escalate with a more deadly counterattack it is very hard for me to see India backing down absent a concerted effort from foreign countries (or perhaps the UN) to bring the two sides to the table. The US has halfheartedly warned India to "exercise restraint" but has been generally staying out of it; the UN has issued boilerplate calls for restraint and negotiation but nothing more; Chinese officials have been meeting with the Pakistani government in Islamabad, but it is not clear what they were discussing and China has not made overt public declarations of any formal stance on the war.
Edit: actually, while the majority of Pakistani statements have continued to vow further revenge, the defense minister did at one point make a statement saying essentially that Pakistan was ready to cease hostilities if India was. It is not clear, at least to me, if this is supposed to imply they will be ready for a ceasefire after a retaliatory strike against India or instead of such a strike; I am also not sufficiently keyed-in to Pakistani media to be confident if this implies some kind of disagreement within the Pakistani government or if it is entirely compatible with their otherwise-bellicose posture. But there does seem to be some hope of cooler heads prevailing in Pakistan.
em-dashes
This is not relevant to the larger discussion here, but I truly hate that em dashes have become a potential signifier of AI slop. I love em dashes! They’re not a mere substitute for parentheses or commas or semicolons, they’re a useful punctuation mark in their own right — they break up a sentence in a unique way, creating a certain flow that other punctuation doesn’t replicate. I used them all the time for essays in school and college, and I still use them in reports for work.
It galls me that a piece of my personal writing style has been co-opted years later by a robot, and now the robot gets all the credit for it.
TheDemonRazgriz
1mo ago
I heard it was a Mirage 2000...
Ha! One more for the list then. It's still possible that no aircraft was shot down at all, too.
TheDemonRazgriz
1mo ago
I wouldn't say they're angling for nuclear war, exactly, but I do think they believe they'd win one if it came to it. The political situation in both countries makes it very unlikely that either will back down, not this early in the conflict at any rate. India's Hindu-nationalist government absolutely cannot be seen to take a targeted anti-Hindu terror attack lying down, and has been putting out a lot of rhetoric about national strength (think of the "India superpower by 20XX" memes). At the same time, their chosen method of retaliation was quite restrained, and optimized for the appearance of strength: it was flashy and geographically-expansive but does not appear to have actually caused much damage. So it can satisfy the voters' need for blood while also giving Pakistan every opportunity to still back down. The Pakistani government, for its part, has been through a lot of internal turmoil in recent years and, on top of the general autocratic impulse/need to look strong for the audience at home, would surely appreciate a chance to rally the public against their hated foreign enemy as a simple distraction. It is possible that Pakistani intelligence encouraged, or even orchestrated, the Kashmir terrorist attack as a deniable means of starting a conflict -- but even if they didn't the government will not be too broken up about the situation.
It is difficult for me to see either side backing down absent some sort of externally-brokered peace talks (which don't look very likely, at least not yet). But it doesn't need a conspiracy to cause a larger war, just good old-fashioned power politics, and there are many steps of escalation for the two sides to go through without resorting to nuclear weapons. Both sides seem confident that they can beat the other in a conventional, limited war. If that confidence holds on both sides then escalation is likely, since both sides know the other is willing to fight without breaking out the nukes.
TheDemonRazgriz
1mo ago
UPDATE Multiple Pakistani news outlets claim that Pakistan has shot down two Indian Rafael fighter jets. Some Indian news agencies are now reporting that a jet was downed.
I would caution against taking these early rumors too seriously. Propaganda claims and people just plain being wrong on the internet run wild in the early phases of anything like this. It is undoubtedly true that the Pakistani army is firing artillery across the border and that skirmishes are happening between the two sides in Kashmir, but the organized Pakistani retaliation has almost certainly not started yet. Their national security council was summoned this morning (that's morning their time, as in, just a few hours ago at most) for a closed door meeting and has not yet made public statements declaring or claiming a response (other than the vague ones I highlighted in my previous post).
For the shootdown claim specifically I am skeptical. In the initial Indian attack their jets used long-range weapons and did not cross into Pakistani airspace, making an interception of those jets unlikely. Any subsequent shootdown would have to be from further Indian attacks into Pakistan, which do not appear to have happened; as part of Pakistani air raids into India, which also do not appear to have happened yet and would more likely be part of a more organized retaliation operation which, again, has not yet happened; or from air-to-air combat over Kashmir which certainly could be happening, but would be a big deal compared to the usual (and confirmed) infantry skirmishes and artillery duels. I have seen this claim as "2 Indian Rafales shot down", "1 Indian MiG shot down", and "1 Pakistani JF-17 shot down". We don't yet know if any of these various claims are true.
I will say I am particularly skeptical of the specific double-Rafale-shootdown claim. These would be brand-new jets for India; they would both be relatively difficult to bring down and, more importantly, would almost certainly not be used in a high-risk situation this early into a conflict. It would be a pretty big deal if they were, and frankly it smacks of war-fever propaganda to me: "yeah, they hit us with some missiles, but we took down two of their best jets! Pakistan (still) strong!" Not to say it's impossible of course but both sides' media have incentive to lie about this kind of stuff, and a history of doing so.
We will know more soon.
three Pakistani army bases
From what I have seen (to be fair information is still hazy, but this much seems to be clear) India very deliberately did not hit actual Pakistani military targets. India claims to have only struck confirmed terrorist targets, and Pakistan claims they fired on civilian targets. The reported blackout in Muzaffarabad would imply at least some civilian infrastructure was fired upon but whether this was deliberate, or even if it is correct, is not yet clear.
All things considered the Indian retaliation here was quite restrained. Nine targets divided across three towns (showing ability and willingness to strike over a large geographical range, since not all the targets were near Kashmir); no actual Pakistani regular forces were targeted; and all missiles were fired from Indian territory or from aircraft which stayed within Indian airspace. To me it appears to be more of a demonstration of capability than actual intent to harm: “look, we have the ability to hit you but we’re choosing to hold our punches at this time.”
Essentially India is kicking the can back to Pakistan. They have retaliated for the terror attack but in a limited way, moving only very slightly up the escalation ladder. Pakistan now has the choice to back down or to escalate further. There are reports of artillery duels and skirmishes across the border kicking off shortly after the airstrikes but this doesn’t mean much given the baseline in the region. What might be more significant are the official statements of the Pakistani defense minister, claiming that the strikes were all targeting civilians and that “our response will be greater”, and of a Pakistan Army spokesman: “The temporary pleasure of India will be replaced by enduring grief.”
So, Pakistan will almost certainly retaliate for this retaliation. Their leadership, much like that of India, has put itself in a position where backing down looks like weakness rather than wisdom. The question now is, now that the ball is in their court, whether and how much they choose to escalate.
Edit to correct: I previously said all missiles were fired from Indian aircraft, in truth some appear to have been air-launched while others were surface-launched. The point that no Indian aircraft entered Pakistani airspace to conduct these strikes remains true.
They're not exactly "encouraged to enjoy sex with their spouse", that's new age degeneracy. It's better to abstain and pray according to the church fathers.
This is definitely not true, at least for Catholicism. My source is that I just recently went through the pre cana process (for those who don’t know, this is the Catholic marriage preparation, basically a retreat where you do various activities with your soon-to-be-spouse alongside other couples; it was a very good experience actually, happy to explain more to the curious) and they were very clear that a husband and wife are supposed to enjoy sex together. Sex is a hugely important part of romantic attraction and the general human experience, not to mention for procreation, and God made it feel good for a reason. You’re just not supposed to enjoy with people other than your spouse, or while using contraception other than cycle-tracking methods (of which the church offers a surprisingly robust suite of resources to help with, including services like biomarker tracking to help precisely identify a woman’s fertility cycle; they also included an array of secular scientific studies showing good success rates for the methods, I found it all very interesting). I admittedly can’t cite the biblical references off my head but I can tell you with absolute certainty that the Official Church StanceTM is that sex is good, actually.
Edit: reading further down the page I see that @urquan has included a key term I forgot to use, which summarizes the position and reconciles the attitude that “sex is good” with the attitude that “celibacy/chastity is good”. Marriage is, in and of itself, a vocation in the religious sense. There’s a reason it’s a sacrament after all. The priesthood, of course, is also a vocation. Priests are not “missing out” on something religious by being celibate and unmarried, nor are married couples “missing out” on part of the religion by not becoming priests and nuns instead. They are simply two different callings.
TheDemonRazgriz
1mo ago
I thought the last Daniel Craig film, No Time to Die, was surprisingly quite good. Not amazing or anything but very solid, some memorable chase scenes and action, good actors, good enough plot. Some people hated it because
TheDemonRazgriz
1mo ago
LGBT identification has risen among younger people, but so has social conservatism. This is seen in stats for young voters but there’s also no shortage of anecdotes floating around the internet of teachers complaining about their students seeming more openly right-wing in recent years (in fairness this also coincides neatly with the sharp rise in ideological progressivism among teachers).
I think the aggressive LGBT promotion toward children has a radicalizing effect, in both directions. Without such programs most kids, especially below a certain age, would simply not think about gay people (much less trans people) at all, unless they had personal experience, i.e. a gay relative or family friend. With the programs, they are forced to think about the issue, and some are attracted while others are repelled.
TheDemonRazgriz
1mo ago
It’s an exact quote of what Trump said when he was told Ruth Bader Ginsberg had just died.
TheDemonRazgriz
1mo ago
I’m curious what you mean by this (sincerely).
TheDemonRazgriz
1mo ago
Adding on to @grognard’s comment below, I recall hearing that the misconception of jannies having .gov emails came from a mocking tweet saying that a number of them had signed up with their “gov names [as in real names] and .edu emails”, which was misunderstood as “.gov and .edu emails”. Then, as the internet is wont to do, this more salacious rumor spread faster than the truth.
TheDemonRazgriz
1mo ago
What do they have to lose?
If it came out that a Ukrainian operation assassinated the US president, they would lose all remaining support from the US. I don’t think even the staunch pro-Ukraine faction (i.e. congressional Democrats) would stand for that, “don’t assassinate the president” is a pretty stark red line. And what would be the gain? Trade anti-Ukraine Trump for anti-Ukraine Vance?
I suppose I could see a lone-wolf mentally-unstable fanatic type trying to kill Trump out of some sense of revenge but an intentional SBU op seems absurd.
I’ve occasionally used ChatGPT as a glorified search engine to help find specific building codes, or to make suggestions for specific things like a roof cap suited for a certain CFM. It’s pretty effective, better than google for the kind of case where you know what you’re looking for but can’t remember where to find it. You just need to make sure to double-check what it’s saying, of course.
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