Clavicular
4d ago
I don’t actually think the war was over. I was linking to a comment that had said it was 100% over.
Clavicular
4d ago
That’s a good point on Iran thinking he might just do another TACO. But if they think he may attack after the midterms, then their best strategy imo is to kick it off early and embarrass Trump and ensure a historic defeat. Making attacking them a political suicide is in their best interest. But maybe their intelligence thinks they have done enough. Interesting on the Polymarket odds. That makes me lower my estimate. I hadn’t seen those.
Something very strange is going on. Iran is negotiating its surrender. The war is over and Iran has lost.. I have been assured that the United States has destroyed Iran's ability of their proxies to project power in the Middle East.
At least 12 people were killed and over 300 injured in a Houthi missile attack on King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh on Saturday, October 10, 2026. This marks the third strike on the facility in one week and the deadliest attack in a Gulf Arab country since the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran began in February.
So to summarize, it looks like the war is expanding, Iran's proxies continue to be able to strike US allies, and Iran's proxies are escalating the conflict instead of backing down.
With early voting opening up soon for many states, what are the chances Iran has an October surprise in store for Trump? Trump has stated that the U.S. will not resume military strikes on Iran before the November 3, 2026 (midterm election). The U.S. military is deploying roughly 9,000 to 10,000 additional troops to the Middle East, including the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group and the USS Makin Island amphibious readiness group, which departed San Diego on October 4–5, 2026. This surge brings the total U.S. military presence in the region to over 60,000 personnel and establishes three aircraft carrier strike groups in the theater for the first time since April 2026.
So Iran knows that Trump wants the Iran War to quiet down before the Midterms, but he is preparing to escalate once it is over. Why would they play along with this? I believe there is a good chance they will escalate and cause Trump and Republicans political embarrassment soon. But maybe this doesn't matter, because for some reason, the Houthis don't count. So I guess everything is going according to plan. So this all could just be nothing.
Clavicular
4d ago
Funny that the Catholic Church had no problem burning women at the stake for wearing male pants when they were powerful. Now they are weak so they cry about this because they would be irrelevant otherwise. This guy should have been killed years ago. He deserves no dignity because he gave none to his victims. Just shoot him behind closed doors without any fanfare and be done with it.
Clavicular
5d ago
I think you are misunderstanding his point. He actually is making more of a Moldbug style observation. He uses some historical examples showing public executions undermine a regime’s authority by generating sympathy for the condemned, provoking riots, and exposing the regime's brutality. This is actually in the first few pages if you want to read his arguments.
What he was saying was that moving punishment behind closed doors made state power less visibly violent and potentially more effective. His thesis is that modern imprisonment wasn't simply moral progress but a shift toward subtler, more pervasive forms of surveillance and social control. People don't want to see how the sausage is made (Palantir, Flock, public executions, etc.). I don't even think he could have anticipated how predisposed leftists are to sympathizing with criminals today.
So I actually agree with him 100%. Another example is deportations. People support deportations until you have to use violence to remove criminal illegal aliens. It's harmful for the regime to do this, which is why the Trump admin stopped making it a spectacle. Maybe reading some Foucault would have made them aware of this. His observations about the intersection of knowledge and power are also spot on, and all right wingers should be red pilled on Foucault.
Clavicular
6d ago
This makes me think of Foucault and Discipline and Punish. Ironically, I think this will backfire spectacularly on the Trump admin. As Foucault points out, this will make people sympathetic to the condemned. It is better for the regime this is done behind closed doors.
I made a prediction that Iran might step up attacks before the midterms. Looks like that may be happening and the rates of attacks are up:
Two ships sink near Hormuz after being hit by projectiles amid surge in attacks
Container ship hit by projectile sinks in Strait of Hormuz, Singapore says
The decision to pause the war by Trump remains puzzling to me, and it suggests a lack of conviction in the war effort. A side confident of success would act immediately rather than grant Iran weeks to strengthen its defenses, plan retaliation, consult its allies, and position its assets. One thing it certainly isn't doing is helping with inflation:
Consumer prices rose 3.7% annually in September as gas prices skyrocket
Trump seems to have a plan though, although it is not popular even among Republicans:
Bipartisan group of senators call on Trump to rescind Russian diesel deal
Polling numbers and prediction markets also paint a pretty bleak forecast for the Republicans.
From Nate Silver:
If things go as they seem, we are about to witness the end of the age of Trump. If we get a Blue Tsunami -- and I believe we will -- Republicans are going to turn on him. Why wouldn't they? What can he offer them at this point but big fat L's. The only question now is what comes next on the Right, because it's certainly not Trumpism.
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