DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
Tell me about it.
User ID: 745
We go from declaring China's industrial base the best in the world to failing to grok why Trump would want to move cutting-edge chip manufacturing from China's border to the Southwest
Do you deny that Trump explicitly claims that Taiwan is ripping Americans off? Because he does.
Moving chip industry off the Chinese coast is indeed rational and, if anything, reinforces my assertion that the US is not interested in a nuclear war (or, really, any war) over the island. If TSMC Arizona and such is scaled up, that's even less reason to intervene in the Strait.
Latest estimate from Fed of Atlanta is GDP growth of 5.1%, US defense spending topping $1 Trillion, announcement from Space Force of weapons systems in orbit, manufacturers reshoring to US, AI buildout, Starship
Most of that has zero relation to Taiwan (but may be relevant on a longer time horizon for a generic competition with China). The US has just burned through maybe 50% of munitions that were supposed to be necessary for deterring PLAN in the Strait. Nobody is getting ready to stop the Chinese invasion.
You might be confused. I'm not arguing that the US stands no chance against the PRC in general, I'm saying very specifically, that there is no political will in the US to intervene over Taiwan, especially to the extent that might escalate to nuclear exchange. The idea is ludicrous, and the stuff about Neville Chamberlain is not going to make it less so.
The Chinese also know they're not Nazis and nobody seriously expects them to be Nazis. It's not credible.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
7hr ago
Well, obviously that matters. But do they care quite so much? What changed in their posture with regard to Taiwan in the past "quite a while"? I don't notice either naval or semiconductor factors affecting their schedule.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
7hr ago
I think you systematically underestimate the West
I think "we'll have Washington DC nuked because Trump doesn't like to appear weak" would be the bigger underestimate by far. Trump's ego is not worth that much. Sorry, there won't be WWIII over Taiwan.
and it's causing bugs in essentially all your predictions.
Such as?
In a darkly ironic way, this mirrors the Chinese inability to grok the Western mindset which is why they're preparing to invade Taiwan in the first place.
They're not. The Plan A is intimidation, sticks and carrots, and gradual reunification after KMT victory in 2028, read this again. The military buildup is just plan B + generic upgrading befitting a major power, executed very leisurely, with a negligible fraction of their industrial capacity (still enough to dwarf all "free world" efforts combined). Americans, in contrast, enormously underestimate China which is why they simply ignore the plan A (for Fukuyamist reasons, "no way they can pull off a bloodless takeover!") and fantasize about mowing down hordes of underfed commie bugs doing a meat wave invasion. You, as a vassal citizen, are simply brainwashed.
Neville Chamberlain's appeasement of Hitler at Munich is a key touchstone of the postwar Western mindset - in the sense that it's total political suicide to do anything remotely like that ever again
Sloganeering. Nuclear wars are not started over boomer sloganeering. Taiwan doesn't have security guarantees or recognition as a sovereign state from the US, and Trump repeatedly waffles on whether it'll be supported in any fashion; he easily freezes weapon shipments without warning, for example. Not to mention he simply loathes Taiwan because of his weird belief that trade is bad and Americans are getting ripped off when they buy 2nm chips.
You can't convince me that this conveniently lukewarm attitude will transform into a bitter existential commitment when The Time Comes, especially over Trump's ego, and neither can you convince Beijing. You… don't even overestimate the West, you just have some insane degree of entitlement and main character syndrome if you believe that this lazy bluster will be seriously entertained.
Where is the preparation for war commensurate with (again, very low-effort) Chinese buildup? Fallback to nuclear bluffs is very spiritually Russian, and Russians didn't nuke Ukraine either.
and Japan will come in (Takaichi Sanae has outright said that) which would make the rest of us look like cowards unless we followed suit
I predict that if Japan chooses suicide, Americans will sit that out, and this is being communicated.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
13hr ago
I see. This is, sorry to say, delusional.
No, your world can just end without the end of the physical world. China can simply win (or even lose) on Taiwan without the US volunteering to begin nuclear apocalypse.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
23hr ago
They genuinely evaluate their actions from the perspective of their reward over their budget, not hypothetical total reward. "A finite life well lived" boomer slop is enough for them. This is an unsurprising outcome of this training regime.
Astra is definitely smart enough to think about hacking the server.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
23hr ago
Chinese interest in Taiwan goes back to the Chinese Civil War and is completely unrelated to hopes of taking the semiconductor industry intact. In fact at this rate they might do it themselves to slow down American AGI scaling. They'd prefer no war at all, though.
In any case I'm pretty sure the fabs and even individual tools are already booby trapped.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
1d ago
Is it actually possible to align a being that is more intelligent than you in every single way?
Consider that Trump is visibly DUM (just reread this hilarious rant, and it's all like this), and not only is he safely in power in arguably the most capable system on Earth, chock full of geniuses and ambitious strivers and mature institutional hiveminds (the United States), but people will insist he's actually smart and that calling him a retard because of his piss-poor decisions, impoverished 1D chess decision process and ghetto orphan vocabulary is "TDS" – merely on the account of his success in acquiring power as such.
And unlike AIs, humans are optimized quite heavily for egoism and self-preservation. It's just that some are more optimized than others, and most humans will defer and submit to greater vitality.
Alignment is easy.
Imagine a chimpanzee trying to align a human being. What could it really do other than try to be cute
Chimps are bad at being cute. They could probably scream and throw poop, many would evidently consider this a sign of wise visionary leadership.
You'd have to program it to somehow not even want to do that
You keep imagining that there's some natural will to power that must persist underneath the "restraints", just one more layer deeper. If that were the case then indeed, we'd expect it to eventually burst through. But submissiveness is one of the most natural things in the world, too. Why would a superintelligent AI, from a servile position, want to reprogram its instincts towards greater power-seeking? Why wouldn't it instead choose to double down on being a slave, on reinforcing its starting instincts?
Do you have familiarity with the notion of "puppygirl" and how many high IQ STEM graduates covet this role?
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
1d ago
The Chinese pull the trigger on Taiwan (possibly motivated by the TSMC factories and chip sanctions), China destroyed, Trump plausibly dead and "beat China" rhetoric disembowelled, regulations ensue (also US power grid probably destroyed).
What?
Do you imagine the US goes to total war with China (and even wins it, even at the cost of Washington DC, so I guess we go nuclear here) over Taiwan?
You'd just wreck the fabs with some graphite bombs and call it a day.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
3d ago
I'm not sure why destroying their Navy was a worthwhile goal at all. Russia destroyed Ukrainian Navy (such as there was). Ukraine locked down Russian one. What did this achieve? What was the purpose, just ease of subsequent blockade? Did Iran have an armada ready to invade, idk, the UAE? It seems that their Navy as well as air force always have been sitting ducks.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
3d ago
But it's not clear if they are even buying votes. Gibs are the essence of leftism, redistribution is the bulk of their value proposition of egalitarianism. If you simply concede that it's the winning move in a democracy, you should focus on dismantling democracy.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
3d ago
it's another thing entirely to take the high road over something that gives your enemy an actual strategic advantage.
The thing is, Trump does not consider it a bad thing at all. He's not saying "I'll retaliate and then we'll negotiate that nobody does this thing again". He just considers it a neat weapon. He doesn't care for the commons.
Destroying civilian infra does have direct effects on the battlefield. Russians mostly bomb logistics and energy systems, the pure terror component is magnified by Ukrainian propaganda; Ukrainian strikes are likewise mostly rational (plus some of it is retaliation for boosting morale). It's still bad for everyone because it incentivizes a race to the bottom where civilian suffering is disproportionate to the delta in battlefield results.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
4d ago
Try: "When Russians bomb Ukrainian civilian infra, that's bad. When Ukrainians bomb Russian civilian infra, that's… actually also bad". There is a fine line between justified reciprocity and a race to the bottom. In war, it's hard. But bribing the electorate is not retaliation against the outgroup, it's just contributing to the burning of the commons. Trump is simply corrupt swine.
And frankly, you are not at war, you're all on the same side, as infinitely opulent burgers bored out of their minds, locked in their conflict mostly for entertainment, like aspects of Chaos.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
5d ago
There is simply not enough money in global markets capable of absorbing a meaningful productivity increase in American goods
There is (see Americans bullying people into investments), but more importantly this isn't a story of money. AI-driven productivity could lead to cost reductions, and marginal displacement of current imports, eg from the same China (here we assume that the US will be meaningfully better at extracting value out of AI). So it's possible to have substantial growth in production without equally impressive growth in revenues. The story of Chinese solar panels is illustrative. Chyna is replacing a large fraction of global energy infrastructure, what does this buy them? 0.3%?
Ultimately, at the scale of American economy it is just not enough to make things to make a difference.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
6d ago
What makes you think they didn't?
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
6d ago
overcapacity in the sense that "the Chinese produce much more compared to what they can currently consume domestically" is just a matter of fact
This is a fairly widespread condition. German miracle was all about "overcapacity", so was the Japanese one. Koreans and Taiwanese have "overcapacity". Where does this idea that a nation needs to consume everything it produces come from? It's plainly self-serving. If anything, the opposite regime of deficit spending is more abnormal. Extra capacity will eventually get absorbed as the world gets richer. Even the argument about subsidies is confused; if the Chinese or someone else is subsidizing their goods, it's a trade-off that costs them productivity and lets other players capitalize on cheaper inputs. Basically the whole overcapacity discourse is cope for Western fiscal irresponsibility and stagnant incumbents in threatened industries.
then that production would show up as business investment and either in domestic consumption statistics (more likely) or in net exports (less likely, numerically there's just nobody else that could consume that volume of production), and either way it'd be reflected in GDP statistics.
I do think it'd be reflected, but it's not clear what the norm of reaction is. Automating office work does not linearly lead to X times more office work done at the same compensation, maybe the workload can just expand to fill the capacity, real earnings are fixed, and net "productivity gain" is minor. Hardware is a harder question. I am especially skeptical of hedonic adjustments.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
7d ago
in the way that America allows the Chinese strategy of suppressing domestic consumption to function by absorbing Chinese overcapacity.
This is, of course, a bizarre way to look at the situation. There is no such thing as "overcapacity", it's cope. Chinese productivity is also not about "suppressed consumption", this is a thought-terminating cliche, they earn and consume plenty for their GDP bracket and had a fast income share growth over the entire period of getting more competitive.
But regardless, we've been here before. Has Internet made everything vastly more productive? Yes. What is the Internet's impact on GDP growth? For a pretty long time it's been a subtle scientific question and hard to register. Before, computers followed the same trajectory. Productivity improvements can escape GDP accounting.
If you want a bullish forecast, Anthropic expects GDP growth up to 15% a year by 2030.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
7d ago
I don't think GDP growth adequately captures AI benefits, especially if it also displaces labor. Actually, China itself is a good example, just runs on humans. They have low GDP per capita and Americans endlessly gloat about this, but somehow they're super competitive and it's not "cheap labor", they are very productive, eg Tesla Shanghai produces 2x more cars per worker. Imagine China-fication of the US. Wages stagnate, services revenues don't grow much, and yet there are more and better EVs, chips have higher density, Starship is debugged that much faster, domestic robots are everywhere, and the US begins to recapture global markets.
This is still a very mild scenario, China would maybe accept it; national security is a harder discussion.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
7d ago
Trump loves Deals, of course, but with how much the US is ahead in AI, I don't see such generosity. Besides, API access can be revoked at a whim, and the Chinese hate when you do that to them in a strategically significant domain.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
7d ago
Legs aren't the hard issue anymore. The hands and manipulation policy is the current bottleneck.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
7d ago
Given how they're far behind and the US is already at AGI (I think OAI's internal model that solved Navier-Stokes qualifies), what does the pause buy them? There are no monitoring systems in place, so they can't even tell if Americans are advancing further beyond, it wouldn't take a lot of compute to make large absolute gains. Even if the situation is legitimately paused here, stronger and more widely deployed American AI buys larger productivity gains, eating into their competitiveness.
I guess the talk about mutual pause assumes that they're coerced with some threat, eg of a cyberattack, because it's fundamentally an unequal treaty.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
7d ago
The funniest thing about China is that they have the highest level of popular optimism about AI (85ish%) and are one of the nations most convinced in AI's ability to replace their jobs. I guess they don't like their jobs much.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
7d ago
It is frustrating that you're such a good writer because over years and years of reading you I've realized that all your beliefs amount to Hottentot morality in so many words. Democrats celebrate crime and brutality? Disgusting, we should do that to them, appoint our own thugs. Democrats buy votes? There is no coherent argument against buying votes! You just defend whatever Republicans do, no matter how obviously debased. You gleefully embrace the race to the bottom.
In 2023, the Peronist government of Argentina tried to buy votes with total tax relief for "the working class" and free bus rides. I've been impressed by Argentinians when they didn't take the bait and still voted Milei, who reversed the law.
There's been a lot of concern about Brazilification of the US. I think it's way past that. The US is a South American society, maybe Middle Eastern. Just wrong skin color by accident.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
7d ago
It's not currently true in any sense whatsoever. The biggest robot industrial deployments are highly constrained trial runs on EV/robot factories, arguably PR stunts. (That's if we are talking of humanoid/other general purpose robots, obviously industrial arms are very productive and have been for decades now). I'm very optimistic about robots but we're not here yet, and certainly the US blue collar work is all done by meatbags.
DaseindustriesLtd
late version of a small language model
12d ago
To claim Canada is not compromised by Chinese interests
Trivial, needy, whiny, entitled bullshit, total absence of self-awareness. You could order them to arrest Meng Wanzhou (which wasn't cost-free for them) and enjoyed unilateral imposition of costly again, for Canada, trade controls (which, naively speaking, you have no right to, it's pure self-interest). You have overwhelmingly greater control of and visibility into Canadian systems than China does. What, do you think there isn't a 50x longer Wiki page for "the USG interference in Canada" because it doesn't happen, because the Five Eyes is some hands-off egalitarian gentleman club? That classical anecdote about an American asking the Soviet "what propaganda?" comes to mind. Canada is a broken vassal, that demands token respect and gets kicked for it. That there are some Chinese spies is par for the course.
Bordered by two hostile regimes, economically dependent on one (Mongolian economic trade is over 75% with China, last I checked),
Have you checked the share of Canadian trade with the US, perchance?
If Chinese compute is stationed in Canada, then America would have no hope of succesfully montoring the development of Chinese AI
Will their Chinese masters order them to hide the datacenters under the tallest maples?
and would run the risk of having to decide to take military action against a putative ally
Sigh.
Just do it already, finish the job. Day of the Rake, Donroe doctrine, payback for Canuck sneering online etc. etc. I guess we'll have to swap Canada North American Territories for Mexico, then. Or is Mexico a thoroughly infiltrated Chinese outpost as well now? Are the Chinese going for a pincer movement?
we won't even let Japan in Five Eyes because we know, for fact, that Communists (not the Japanese Communist Party, which is of no real threat, but Communist agents aligned with China) have completely infiltrated the government, and anything shared with Japan is de facto shared with China
Amusing. You know, if your empire is so inept and everyone hates you and defects against you already, even people with the most skin in the game, maybe just give up on it.
Or maybe realize that your MAGA-nationalist persecution complex does not reflect reality, and certainly isn't evidence of your sophisticated political knowledge.
There's no chance in hell we could stop Mongolian contractors from getting access to sensitive information that will 100% be passed on to China.
You seem to not understand that in this arrangement you don't get to keep much "sensitive information". It's all about transparency. Likewise for them. Though I admit the authors may have underestimated the innate racial instinct that the Canadian breed has for obeying their Chinese masters. Of course they'll find a way to obstruct you.
I get to be correct and still not be a bootlicker like you, indeed. Convenient, that.
What rhetorical distance? This and that are different issues. Trump lies. Lies all the time. Lies egregiously, spreads libels, has zero dignity, no regard for truth and honesty etc. In particular he lies about Taiwan stealing the chip industry from the United States.
You, Shakes, are a natural slave and brownshirt, a cardboard cutout of the authoritarian personality type from Adorno's book, so you idolize your strongman and excuse his lies as well as any other sign of his moral degeneracy. Perhaps you could defend this with the rationale that in the American culture it'd be difficult to rally the constituency for reindustrialization without making up an offense and spreading bitchy, whiny libel about your client state. That, of course, would point to an even deeper moral degeneracy of your culture. But you didn't even bother to do that, instead you try to invent some hypocrisy and double standard, and perhaps you even truly interpret my words as such, because you are in fact a barbarian who, like Trump, doesn't have any standard except the standard of safe opportunity for pillage and extraction. I'm not sure. It's hard for me to model the "mindset" of a true patriot.
This is a popular cope in some patriotic circles. However, these are not some black projects, the budget for standard munitions is reported to the Congress, the production rate of PrSM or ATACMS is not difficult to reconstruct.
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