Eetan
36m ago
It seems to me that for all Martin's talk about what is Aragon's tax policy, he really didn't think very hard about the details of his world building.
If JRRT was economics nerd instead of linguistic one, the trilogy would definitely have 50 page appendix about Sauron's tax policy and full org chart of Mordor internal revenue service. Be careful what you wish for.
Eetan
8hr ago
American defeat was well outside my model, so this is "winning too much", as it were.
Yes, you trusted the experts, as we all did. Nothing to be ashamed of.
Eetan
2d ago
The "stealth" satellites are not stealthy, their orbits are well known and their mass is roughly estimated. You can observe them yourself with rather modest equipment.
What is unknown is their capability and their mission.
Eetan
2d ago
"Partheniae"
Mostly mythical event "at least three distinct traditions", and not rebellion - sending excess populaiton overseas to found new city was SOP at the time. None of the traditions say that Partheniae wanted to get laid, but to get land of their own.
"Sabine women"
Pure mythical event.
"Nian Rebellion"
From your own source:
"Their slogan was "'kill the rich and aid the poor.". Not: "Let's get laid!"
"Crusades"
Economic motive for crusades is completely discredited by modern scholarship - crusading was never profitable, emarking on crusade ruined both ordinary nobles and great kings, but they persevered for centuries, as if they really believed in Holy Land. And sex motive was never ever proposed by anyone.
If lack of sex is common motive for revolutions and urprisings, you would be able to cite numerous examples from well documented history, where well fed and comfortable people go set the world aflame just because they can't get laid.
Eetan
3d ago
And another culture (and shooting) war event happening right now, event of more importance than the pathetic one in Montreal.
After a year (lightning speed for justice) events that happened during protest at ICE detention center in July 4, 2025 were resolved.
In rather unexpected way, by maximum possible prison sentences.
Benjamin Song, who fired the gun at the police officer, was sentenced to 100 years in prison. Song was convicted of attempted murder of an officer of the United States, as well as firearm and explosives charges. He was also convicted of riot, providing material support to terrorists. He faced anywhere from 20 years to life in prison.
Zachary Evetts, Autumn Hill, Savanna Batten, Elizabeth Soto and Meagan Morris were sentenced to 50 years in prison. Maricela Rueda, another demonstrator, was sentenced to 70 years in prison. All six were convicted of riot, providing material support to terrorist, and explosive charges. Rueda was also convicted of corruptly concealing a document or record.
Ineffectiveness of your resistance is no longer an mitigating circumstance, and using Signal is highly aggravating one.
The judge openly said that the sentences are meant to "send a message".
As expected, Xitter celebrates while Bluesky mourns. We will see if this is one time occurance, or Trump's promise to crack down on Antifa was meant seriously.
Eetan
3d ago
And since there is no trace of "high agency competent people" in incel movement, incel revolution is, so far, cancelled.
Eetan
3d ago
"A far wiser man than either of us once noted that the principled application of left-wing equality and classism rhetoric results in sexual justice for incels."
Well, left winger would answer that sex is not necessity like food and shelter, and historically aware person would answer that lack of sex is not revolutionary force, that all historically documented revolts and revolutions were triggered by shortage of food, not sex.
Eetan
3d ago
Well, were we have a winner of "most ineffective terrorist of the week". This event pushed the total tally of "incel" terror attacks worlwide in the last decade to about dozen.
Overall, incels have long way to go to be true menace.
Eetan
3d ago
"one core reason Marxist movements will always fail"
Strange that failure of IRL Marxism (after brilliant success after success that culminated in Marxist governments controlling one third of human race) had nothing to do with this "core reason".
No one opponent of Marxism, whether outside or inside Marxist states, ever cited lack of sex as reason why Marxism is wrong.
Eetan
3d ago
Assuming known physics is all that is out there, you are right.
There ain't no stealth in space, you can do many things in space, but not hide.
Of course, there is no guarantee that we really reached the bottom of science tree and there are no unknown unknowns out there.
Eetan
3d ago
What is the latest UAP craze about? You are right, it is strange and sus. Even veteran UFO researchers are bewildered what is it about.
Non exhausting list of possibilities:
1/ Slow disclosure.
Aliens are real and USG is ready to disclose it to the public, in slow drips to prevent muggles from panicking.
2/ Blue Beam scenario.
Aliens are not real, but USG plans to fake alien contact to establish New World Order(TM). When ayyys tell the masses to live in pods and eat bugs, the muggles better to comply.
3/ The flying tictacs are red.
Aliens are not real. The objects in the sky are real and are Chinese Star Trek tier technology developed in secret. USG is panicking, desperately searching for countermeasures and in the mean time tries to prevent panic among muggles.
4/ The flying tictacs are red, white and blue.
Aliens are not real. The objects in the sky are real and are US Star Wars tier technology developed in secret. Were you thinking that the trillions of dollars spent on GWOT were really wasted in Iraq and Afghanistan?
These superweapons are reserved for final struggle with China, and USG is trying to deceive China in the mean time, so they will come as complete surprise.
5/ Wilderness of mirrors
No one know what is real and what is not, least of all USG experts. It is all some complicated inside game muggles have no hope of understanding.
6/ One big nothingburger
It's not real, there are no conspiracies, just grifters, scammers and mentally ill people doing things for their own purposes. Nothing to see there.
Eetan
4d ago
This belief, objectively far more deluded and delusionary than literal flat earthism, is not so uncommon, and not only among not very bright and curious people who learn about the world they live in only by random watching of TV and tiktok.
See this giga self own of aspiring rationalist from last year.
Eetan
5d ago
Yes, with enforcement akin to any other breach of international law. This figures.
Eetan
5d ago
'Sold out' implies getting something in return.
We do not know what, if any, backroom negotiations and deals, whether official or unofficial, were involved (unless Mottizens are much more elite and well connected human capital anyone could imagine).
Eetan
5d ago
Granting US citizenship to current Israeli citizens would be legally easy (politically nightmarish and unthinkable, but that's different question) as one time special and exceptional act that does not have to conform with normal US immigration laws and practices.
@Celestial-body-NOS was talking about non-US, non-Israeli Jews. Israel was established as safe haven for all Jews in the world. To duplicate this, US would have to also establish Law of Return and credibly promise to keep it for all eternity.
In such situation, US immigration authorities would now have to decide who is a "Jew" for the purpose of return, easy to understand why even the most philosemitic person would not want to go there.
Eetan
5d ago
I am also reading Roadside Picnic by the Strugastky brothers. I'm actually really enjoying it so far. The main character going from being a young man with all that entails, i.e. not caring as much about the future, not caring about engaging in daring adventures to becoming more settled as he has a wife and a child is quite relatable to me. I am not at the child part but life at the end of your 20s with a GF is very different to my early 20s. You mostly don't have to care as much when you're younger? It's very nicely written, the Zone is described in a very compelling way and the characters seem real. You notice it was written in the Soviet era but that's charming more than anything. Halfway through but it's very enjoyable. Can see why it had such a long tail as a literary work (the Stalker movie and later games).
Notice that in order to be compelling, the story is set in some unnamed capitalist country.
In USSR, "stalkers" monkeying with incomprehensible alien stuff for private profits would not be tolerated, and writing about brave and competent Soviet scientists selflessly exploring the zones for common good just would not be believable in 1972.
Eetan
2mo ago
The problem is that the movement here has become utterly unmoored from reality. In the case of the UK, the left broadly got what it wanted.
Well, Phoebe O’Brien certainly does not feel she is living in paradise. Neither would any representative of historical "left" before about Clinton times.
There are sweeping laws against almost every leftist bugbear, there are gender equality rulings that means female cashiers have to be paid the same as male warehouse workers
And neither are paid very much.
taxes are incredibly punitive at the top end
And are they spent on anything that benefits Phoebe in any way?
the UK has worse pay compression than the Soviet Union (!!!).
And like in Soviet Union, it does not matter, because the real elite benefits are not things you can buy in shop with pieces of paper or plastic.
Yea, Phoebe O’Brien is angry. And you admit that there are many good reasons to be angry in today's UK and today's world.
Yea, Phoebe's anger is misdirected. Yea, Phoebe is ignorant, badly miseducated and misinformed. Now, instead of laughing at her hair, what would you tell to her? Who is her real enemy, who should she be angry at? If it's not the men, the billionaire class, Keir Starmer, Donald Trump and Israel, who is it?
Or would you tell her to chill, stop GAF about anything and be content with her lot of life?
"Dear Phoebe, you live in the best possible world. Stop crying, stop complaining, be thankful you were not born as slave in ancient Egypt and enjoy your life. Do not forget to thank every day Israel and heroes working in quantitative finance who made it all possible."
Eetan
2mo ago
Charles Fourier wasn’t technically a communist, he was a different, unrelated branch of utopian socialist.
Context for Fourier's visions: This sort of utopia was not delusionary dream, it was extrapolation of cutting edge science of the time - agricultural science.
This time - late 1700's - early 1800's - was time of British Agricultural revolution time when plant and animal breeding was for the first time done in systematic, scientific way with astonishing results.
It was not unreasonable to ask: "If in mere 50 years, science can double size of swine and sheep's wool yield, what could be done in 500 or 1000 years?"
No surprise that utopian visions of the far future, genre common of the time, were of biopunk genre. Future where carriages are drawn by lions at breakneck speed, ships pulled by whales, menial human labor is replaced by trained animals, eagles tamed and bred so big they can carry riders.
Well, this future hadn't arrived, dirty grease and coal dust covered mechanics had other plans.
Eetan
2mo ago
The main problem of Soviet propaganda was it claimed the utopia was already achieved, lie as brazen as completely unnecessary.
She was right, the propaganda was so over the top it was counterproductive.
When, for example, farmer from Kansas saw on silver screen Soviet peasants living in mansions, eating luxuriously and visiting grand opera house, would he think "We should help our gallant allies, whatever the cost!" or "If Russia is so rich country, why they do not send aid to us?"
Eetan
2mo ago
"Vatnik" is East European equivalent of "redneck". Vatnik is heavy quilted jacket worn by people working outside in frost, snow, rain and mud. It began as slur, but was reclaimed by proud vatniks.
As opposed to "sovok" - this is Eastern European equivalent of "boomer", it means person nostalgic for USSR and/or person with strong Soviet mindset and (negative) habits. Stereotypical sovok is elderly rural person, but not always, easy to find 20 years old sovoks.
This word is seen as pure slur, no people call themselves "sovoks" willingly.
Eetan
2mo ago
This war is eugenic for both sides. It is final end of modernity and retvrn to 17-18th century when war was seen as the best way to get rid of criminals, beggars and assorted dregs. Frederic the Great explicitly banned "useful citizens" from being recruited into Prussian army, even if they wanted to volunteer.
In Russia, as you said, prisoners and rural people lured by promise of big bag of rubles are fed to the meat grinder. In Ukraine it is even more stark, the losers who can't flee the country or bribe their way out are dragged to the vans.
If this continues for several centuries, we would see in Eastern Europe the same eugenic process as happened in Western Europe. Feeding the criminals, poors, dumb (and small number of patriotic idealists) into shredding machine will produce superior race that will dominate the world.
Eetan
2mo ago
Why are Americans becoming more anti-renewable?
Because they monitor the situation, and see that world is getting more spicy and big boog is coming. And in boog times, dispersed renewable power sources are completely indefensible.
If you disagree, show your work, show your plan to protect solar plant or offshore wind farm from attack by drone swarms that are now common in Eastern Europe.
19th century technology is the answer for 21st century problems.
Germany considers ramping up coal power to avert energy crisis
Italy to push back coal plant phase out to 2038
Asian nations push for dirty fuels to ease energy crisis amid West Asia war
The future is not shiny happy solarpunk, the future is combination of cyberpunk, steampunk and gulagpunk. This is not the future you have to like, but this is the future you were promised.
Eetan
2mo ago
Scientific consensus? Nah, solid 19th century math and physics.
If you doubt it, you can at home repeat the experiments and redo the calculations of Joseph Fourier , Eunice Newton Foote, John Tyndall and Svante Arrhenius.
Or you can go reject all of it, spit at life work of the finest European scientists and go full flat earther, your life your choice.
None of this matter at this time, the train is not stopping, it is going straigth to Paleocene and speeding up. Get on higher ground and enjoy the ride.
Not originally, but classical regency romances now need massive appendices explaining the social and economic structure of vanished world of early 19th century Britain, world as strange and foreign to 21st century as Shire or Gondor.
Reading the Regency
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