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Eetan


				

				

				
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joined 2022 September 04 22:19:45 UTC
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User ID: 208

Eetan


				
				
				

				
2 followers   follows 2 users   joined 2022 September 04 22:19:45 UTC

					

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User ID: 208

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Imagine it is mid 2026 and you wake up to a final victory by one side or the other, say in the top 90% percentile plus of favourability, however you wish to define it.

Total Ukraine Victory or Total Russian Victory?

As you said, both options are unlikely, but one (TUV) is by several magnitudes more unlikely than the other. Realistic end of war, that could be predicted when the three day special operation failed (and was predicted by sharp observers), is permanent cease fire and permanent DMZ around the current front line.

Best solution for Earth, imagine 1500-2000 km long and 20-50 km wide ruined and abandoned zone that will revert to nature and becomes wildlife paradise.

Now, back to your question: TRV or TUV, what one should we prefer?

It depends how you feel about Global American Empire of Rules Based Order.

In TRV world, GAERBO is defeated and thoroughly humiliated. In TUV world, GAERBO is strenghtened and emboldened to do whatever it wants.

Whatever was the war about in the beginning, it is now whether GAERBO is still the biggest, strongest and sharpest shooting cowboy on the corral.

In the end, it is turning into a debacle for Piers Morgan. As the dust settles, he comes across as the evil defender of a decrepit regime going after some dude’s dad. He was forced to pretend to not understand basic statistics, causing him to appear either stupid or malicious, depending on your gullibility. In many ways, he was the perfect heel employing dirty tactics to get an edge.

Yea, imagine some Soviet apparatchik in late stage of really existing socialism defending the system in open, unscripted debate with dissident, even crazy one (or just ordinary disgruntled citizen).

For long time, failures of the system were masked by fact that Western world was legitimately the only game on the planet, the best place to be despite all faults. If USSR liberated the workers of the whole world and imposed its system everywhere, it could also easily swat away any criticism "What are you complaining about? You live far better than medieval serfs!".

Not any more.

Now you can ask: "Why in Dubai or Shanghai people have the same wealth and comfort as in Western cities, and in addition complete safety, where they can walk the streets at any time unmolested and being stabbed or shot by deranged drug addict is as thinkable as being eaten by tiger. Why can't we have it too?" And the system has no answer than "But we have democracy and human rights!" (not much talk about "freedom" these days)

And ancient grudge against Russia. The Great Game is over, fear the the bear will waltz down through the Khybert pass towards India is gone, but the grudge remains.