FarmReadyElephants
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User ID: 2869
FarmReadyElephants
3d ago
What makes discord and reddit similar is that there is a discussion of enthusiasts available on any topic you are interested in. If I want to learn Ableton or discuss the Byzantine empire, I know I can find that on reddit. It just comes with BLM and LGBT propaganda and ban-happy leftist mods.
FarmReadyElephants
3d ago
I think Reddit is more important than people realize. It’s long been one of the most valuable datasets on the internet, even before LLMs. I would google a question about health, products, or general interest with a “site:Reddit.com” at the end to get thoughtful commentary from real people. And now that it is LLM fuel, it’s influence will only grow
And it is entirely captured by the left fringe of the Overton window. It is one of the more progressive San Francisco companies. I’ve eaten more bans there than anywhere else on the internet. I’m not a particularly inflammatory poster! But their Overton window doesn’t extend very far to the right.
I’m troubled by this and I am a computer programmer. How to overcome Reddit’s massive network effect? I’ve thought that the Motte would be a good place to build from. We have a high quality audience. Could we start subforums dedicated to special interests and build slowly? It would give mottizens a place to have high quality conversations on issues other than the culture war without having to venture into reddit. But that probably deserves a top-level post of its own
In some respect all circumstances are unique. But gaining access to seaports on the Baltic and Black Sea were foundational to Russia’s concept of itself as a modern state. Losing its Black Sea territory would be a humiliation for them that would be setting them back to before the 1700s.
I understand that is probably the goal of US foreign policy - dismantling Russia into a pre-modern medieval rump state around Moscow. But Russia also understands that is the goal and they have 100 million people and the world’s largest nuke supply to prevent it. Personally, I think we should just trade with each other and get along. I doubt ending the modern Russian state as such will make the world a better place
Ukraine had been Russian for a very long time. Longer than the USA has existed. Much longer than Florida has been a state. These things matter. We are blessed with the world’s largest moat so we have little sympathy for other countries who are faced with the prospect of losing territory.
For us, I imagine our first realistic national humiliation will be when Hawaii is taken by China. I imagine we will fight very hard against that
FarmReadyElephants
6d ago
The US didn't really put all that much effort into taking out Assad. Turkey did.
Nah, the US oil sanctions were pretty decisive. You can see GDP per capita dive as they go into effect. US support for various jihadists also didn't help. But it was the sanctions that were the killer. I was hopeful that Russian aid could Assad hold on, but it wasn't enough.
IMO the post-Cold War USA record in the Middle East is a giant humanitarian tragedy, and it has wiped out most of the remnants of a Christian culture going back 1900 years. Many other people have made the case, so I'll spare both of us repeating it.
FarmReadyElephants
7d ago
Calling it a partition is a little odd, since there never was a Ukrainian state until the 20th century. It’s not like the partition of Poland, where something that exists was split into pieces. And the area currently encompassed by Ukraine isn’t a coherent nation, but an agglomeration of several peoples with distinct heritages
I've watched people I identify with (Orthodox Christians) be ethnically cleansed out of the Middle East in my lifetime. The priest who taught me chant fled to the US after having ISIS kill 6 members of his parish in Syria. The USA spent decades aiming to bring down Assad, and for what? What was so bad about Assad? Assad was not Orthodox, but neither was he a persecutor of us.
Russia wanted Syria to be stable so that Christians would be protected and so that they could earn oil profits together. The USA wanted Jihadis to overthrow the Syrian government in order to... in order to...
You know, I'm not sure what the point is. As far as I can tell, it's to line the resumé of some apparatchik in the State Department. Too bad thousands of people have to die and an ancient culture has to be wiped out for that.
I get tired of praying for my friends' family members who are in mortal peril due to US policy choices.
Oh that's sad, and kind of recent too. I disagree with Trace's manipulation of Libs of TikTok, but it looks like he regrets it too. And that commenter was an asshole to bring it up on an unrelated thread.
It's sad to see Trace ragequit. He's a good poster, a shining example of the kind of person that keeps me around the rationalist-adjacent sphere. I worry about the motte's inability to retain quality centrist and left-of-center members, even though myself I am far right.
He's a big fan of the block function on twitter, along with plenty of other large accounts. I wonder why he didn't avail himself on that more on TheMotte.
FarmReadyElephants
7d ago
There are Trace haters here?
FarmReadyElephants
7d ago
They're bad at risk evals and self-awareness.
IMO Putin errs on the side of caution. For Russian security, he really shouldn't have let the US get 8 years to fortify Ukraine before the invasion. He's a patient leader, to a fault.
Russia projects power over its direct neighbors and a few allies in its neighborhood. We helped overthrow a democratic government on the other side of the world. Well, many actually. I think its weird that we wouldn't expect a large state like Russia to have some influence over its neighbors. And in times of peace, it is a non-issue. It's only something we trot out when the war machine needs a few $trillion and people at State are getting bored.
And for what it's worth, Russian influence seems more benevolent than US influence. It's pragmatic and non-ideological in the post-Soviet era, focusing on mutual economic benefit and security. On the other hand, I lose track of which Jihadis are the good guys that we are using to spread democracy and which are the bad Jihadis that maybe used to be the good Jihadis and etc, etc.
FarmReadyElephants
7d ago
Kiev was part of Russia from 1667 to 1991, barring a two-year interregnum during the Bolshevik Revolution. It is also the founding city of all Rus civilizations and cultures. Personally, I can't tell the difference between the two languages.
Kiev was taken by the Russians in 1667, only a little over a hundred years before the United States existed.
I imagine if New York broke away in a moment of national weakness. We might allow it. But if then China started installing military bases there and buying out the politicians, we would undoubtedly find it galling and invade.
FarmReadyElephants
7d ago
Nice so in 2014 we got strong allies in the region
Not at all. Ukraine was still pretty divided internally between vehemently anti-Russia and pro-Russia factions, with lots of less dedicated people in the middle. It was conceivable that the pro-Russia faction could have gained the upper hand again eventually.
I think what is novel after 2014 is that US war material starts moving into the country. So maybe the pro-Russia faction would have been forcibly suppressed if it looked like they were going to win another election. But it would have been messy
Personally, I think it served US interests just fine to leave Ukraine as a border state. The war has been very costly in men and treasure, and the US seemed to be in the driver's seat in starting it.
FarmReadyElephants
7d ago
Ironically, there's a far stronger natural argument for defending Ukraine against Russia than there is for defending a rogue Chinese province from its sovereign government
This is a hilarious way to compare an anti-communist Western-backed nation that has existed since 1949, versus a province that was ruled by Russia for over 300 years up to 1991 and remained a pretty neutral border state up until 2014
Well, given the history of the USSR and Russian Empires, I’d say your priors are improperly calibrated
My main point is pretty much that the strategic situation Russia faces today is nothing like the strategic situation the Soviet Union faced in 1945 when they had overwhelming military force, favorable demographics, a vital pan-national ideology, neighboring countries which had been hollowed out by war, a neutral-to-friendly United States, and a regional power vacuum.
So yes, I did consider the Soviet Union and it is precisely that consideration that makes slippery slope arguments seem farfetched
I don’t know how you can observe the last 3 years of war and think Russia would roll over a NATO country
Yeah, and the Ukrainians didn't have a great time. Which is why they're trying pretty dang hard to avoid that fate.
Some Ukrainians didn’t have a great time. Which is why some Ukrainians try pretty hard to avoid that fate. Of all its neighboring countries, Eastern Ukraine is by far the closest linked to Russia
Ukraine is not a NATO country and more deeply integrated into the Russian culture and economy than any other country. The strategic situation is quite different and there is enough delta between the ease with which Russia could take and rule Eastern Ukraine and anywhere else that I don’t find the slippery slope arguments convincing.
Many people in Eastern Ukraine are interested in joining the western bloc for greater economic opportunity. But if they are conquered by Russia and NATO-Russia relations eventually normalize, they will learn to say mnohaja leta instead of mnohaja leeta and get on with their lives.
It would take an immense investment of manpower for Russia to occupy any other Baltic state and crush the resistance. But a good chunk of Ukraine is not just Slavic but also descended from the Rus, with a long and recent history of being ruled by Moscow. If Russia can take it, they will keep it without much trouble
Ukraine was ruled by Russia for 300 years before independence. Eastern Ukraine and Russia are both Rus-descended cultures with a shared heritage. The invasion itself has given nationalism a shot in the arm, but it’s a rather different situation than South Korea or Taiwan.
In Ukraine, we helped the anti-Russia faction gain power in 2014. Taiwan and South Korea have been die-hard against Chinese rule for generations.
FarmReadyElephants
30d ago
Yes, we commonly treat those who have just arrived in this world as a part of their family unit. You are born into this world with very little, except the moral and often legal right to demand the resources of those who bore you. I am conflating the mother and the child because it is what our world always and everywhere already does.
The child comes into the world with the strongest sense of belonging to a tiny nation - that of his biological family. On a larger scale than that, he belongs as a junior member, by virtue of his parent's membership, into whatever web of belonging they belong to. Thus, a Hebrew boy was taken to be circumcized and named on the eighth day of life.
They do not have the liberty to exist on our soil, because their family does not have the right to exist on our soil, and we would be wise not to dismember the tightest and tiniest of nations.
FarmReadyElephants
1mo ago
My ex-girlfriends have been put on hormonal birth control in their teenage years for acne and period pain. For some doctors, it seems like the default to get every pubescent girl on birth control, without any discussion of the drawbacks.
FarmReadyElephants
1mo ago
Anyone who gives birth on our soil, after no matter how short a period and with no matter how temporary a status, gives birth to a US citizen. Surely, justice demands there must be some quantity of sweat expended over some period of time before we recognize a deep tie of kinship and mutual responsibility?
FarmReadyElephants
1mo ago
The Trump name will be enough to get them instantly top 2 in any statewide primary. They wouldn’t need too much talent to have a political career if they want it, though capturing the Presidency is a difficult feat
As a Desantis supporter, I was disappointed by the power of the Trump name with your typical chud Republican. But nevertheless it exists
FarmReadyElephants
1mo ago
Pretty common is an overstatement, but it's a behavior I've seen around AGP/sissy spaces. I used to be AGP. Not all trans people are AGP, but it seems that a greater portion of AGP people are going trans nowadays than back when I was into it.
In the broad sense, getting turned on by behavior the person associates with feminity is the most common and defining AGP behavior, and that is not rare at all. The trans redditors call it "gender euphoria" nowadays, to avoid calling it a paraphilia.
FarmReadyElephants
1mo ago
Now I want to know whether "being forced to find the derivative of an integral" is someone's kink. Surely not?
The mind of AAPs are completely alien to me, so who knows? Maybe one of them is hot and bothered by roleplaying Grigori Perelman.
I've also noted one instance of an AAGP in the wild (a woman who wanted to be a man who wanted to be a woman). Human culture has no end of oddities.
FarmReadyElephants
1mo ago
There seems to be a large cohort of fairly far-left educated millennial voters that frankly scare me a bit. Call it the Reddit generation. It's the same group that powered Bernie Sanders into stardom. They have the politics of university campus but they are larger than in the past due to the expansion of college education and they keep ideological coherence longer into adulthood due to reinforcement over social media.
We rely on older voters to notice when their policies are going off the rails and elect center-left liberals to clean up their messes. But boomers are a scarce resource and overall it seems like the ideological mix of the American voter is heading in a bad direction, with Mamdani as the latest symptom. The more ideological voters seem to be indifferent to how their policies affect their city or economy. Politics is a badge of righteousness rather than a tool for governance.
FarmReadyElephants
1mo ago
That predictably leads to social deficits and-- guess what-- trans people report high levels of social isolation and loneliness (This figure includes FTM trans people too, which aren't what I'm talking about with autism, but I'll get to that later). Meanwhile, estrogen increases oxytocin and oxytocin reducing autism symptoms and oxytocin decreases the felt impact of social isolation. So immediately, there's a pretty compelling link between autism->feeling lonely->taking estrogen->feeling better that explains the "success" of the trans phenomenon, including the high rates of treatment satisfaction.
Part of this satisfaction could also be gaining a new social group. You might find similar rates of satisfaction among people who joined a church, or who in past generation may have joined a music subculture (goth, emo, punk) instead of becoming LGBTQ++.
Obviously I think the culture here is much higher quality than .win would be
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