FeepingCreature
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User ID: 311
FeepingCreature
1mo ago
As I understand it, there may be genuine self-induced brain damage in play, so probably no.
FeepingCreature
1mo ago
Yeah I gave him a lot of credit, but the evidence he got online right brainfried is rapidly mounting.
FeepingCreature
1mo ago
Personally speaking I don't think about it because I believe AI kills us first.
FeepingCreature
1mo ago
To me it's not a matter of category but scale. And micro-secessionism does not affect the rest of the country, whereas fucking with the election does.
FeepingCreature
1mo ago
It had been previously established that it was entirely acceptable for mobs to declare themselves sovereign from local, state and federal law enforcement, and to enforce this claim by burning police stations and courthouses, denying access to the actual police, arming themselves with rifles and shooting people in the street.
I think there's still a big difference in kind between effectively micro-secessionism and fucking with the election. One is an attack on one area of a city, the other is an attack on the entire country.
FeepingCreature
1mo ago
The normal way you beat a network effect is by providing an alternative that is sufficiently compelling to a subset of high-value users that they jump first and bring the rest of the network with them later.
You know what? Make a good fandom wiki! The current sites are a confused, ad-riddled mess, getting worse all the time, and Wikipedia has explicitly kicked them off. They're up for picking.
FeepingCreature
1mo ago
Giving him 22 years for seditious conspiracy would make sense were he say, a National Guard colonel whose troops arrested the entire senate and occupied the building for days.
Okay, I honestly agree with the rest of the comment, but if there's anything that a state should have a death sentence for, surely it's that. Like, at that point it's not even a question of law and order but of naked self-preservation.
I guess the argument would be that life creates an incentive against killing the senate? Hard to say where the stand-off factor is there. This is not exactly a common occurrence, so maybe going all the way to maximal deterrence is fine actually.
FeepingCreature
2mo ago
However, nonetheless, even when you think somebody's position implies something you shouldn't say that they believe that thing. I think that's in the rules? And humans don't really work that way to start with.
FeepingCreature
2mo ago
It's not a tell. For instance, it's so common in, say, German, that even German Wikipedia does it. "The Ukraine is a state..."
FeepingCreature
2mo ago
Personally, I mostly read forum quests and fanfic on my phone. I don't think there's anything special about books in particular.
It's so weird to me, because it's like a minimum coup. Not even a minimum viable coup, because it clearly isn't. It's not doing your enemy a small injury, it's like slapping your enemy in the face with the broad of your sword, then running away. Are you trying to start shit or not? It's like they themselves didn't know if they wanted to start shit or not. Like a child's drawing of a coup: all the parts are there, the march, the violence, the fraudulent scheme, but they're just executed with zero skill or coherence, basically at random. I think that's why it causes so much division. It's like your neighboring country rolls a tank over the border, but it's made of cardboard, plops out one sad shell and falls apart. Now you don't even know if you're supposed to be at war.
It's a coup done by a person who just doesn't know how to do one. So do you let it count?
FeepingCreature
2mo ago
The only thing I ever saw Apple commenting on is the first one. Did they say it's technically unfeasible to build a surveilable phone anywhere? Cause that's dumb.
FeepingCreature
2mo ago
The disagreement is: having made a phone that works this way, it is now technically infeasible to search it. It was not technically infeasible to build the phone another way, but Apple also never claimed that. After all, they did this deliberately, as a sales pitch.
FeepingCreature
2mo ago
FeepingCreature
3mo ago
I just had this comment in the "The Motte needs your help" report queue. Obviously it's in the wrong spot, but also I can't flag it as "this needs a moderator to move it maybe" because the report queue doesn't show context, and on its own this is a perfectly normal comment. Bit of a weakness, idk.
FeepingCreature
4mo ago
I mean, that kind of sounds like you're saying it's provably not a 1:1 simulation of a human brain.
What you're describing is measurable evidence of new physics. Every physicist in the world would want to buy you a beer.
FeepingCreature
4mo ago
I'd say do at least 3.5 Sonnet and whichever model of o1 is out by then. Sonnet is the best "classical" code llm (imo!), though you may have to prompt it pretty hard to get it to try a oneshot. But o1 is designed for oneshots and is the only one that may be a paradigm shift in ai design. It's been worse than sonnet at some tasks, but this may play to its strengths. Also if adding a Python interpreter, implore the models to add timeouts. :)
FeepingCreature
4mo ago
I mean, I'm not proposing a model but an empirical observation. If the Republican machine could replicate trump to replace him they would have, considering how much they dislike him.
I don't think that "charisma matters in politics" is news. Plenty of American presidents have had mass appeal, just for instance Obama. But the Dems cannot produce Obamas anymore than the Reps can produce Trumps. If that's solved -- sure, but there's no reason to me to think that Trump moves us closer to solving it. American politics has had centuries to codify charisma and hasn't managed to do more than come across it in the wild.
FeepingCreature
4mo ago
No because Trump is an outlier. Trump-style populism relies on his charisma; it's not replicable at scale. Not even Trump could build a machine that produces Trumps; and his party is not interested in doing so at any rate.
FeepingCreature
4mo ago
I think it's vibe-based. Culture doesn't have enough room for more than one bit, or more than one direction on the lever. Because trans is left and anti-trans is right, moving the lever towards trans moves it in a leftist direction (pro women), and moving the lever against trans moves it in a rightist direction (against child grooming).
From that perspective, "I am against trans participation in women's sports but for 18+ transition and cautiously in favor of puberty blockers given parental approval or a three month waiting period or idk" would simply have too many bits; no serious politician would dedicate that much cultural mindspace to the topic. "Against trans to protect women's sports" is already relatively nuanced. (Yes, the mind weeps, but that's how it is.)
FeepingCreature
4mo ago
To a first approximation, liberal = trans because "my body, my choice". "Bad for society, thus should be prevented" is usually the illiberal take.
FeepingCreature
4mo ago
Compromise: Move MLK day to October and put the election on it. I'm sure the Reverend would be fine with it. Republicans are happy because it doesn't create a new holiday and also it reduces the stature given to a black guy, Democrats are happy because black people and minorities get time off to vote and also it ties MLK even more tightly into the civic mythos, plus they can put pictures of him up in the voting room.
FeepingCreature
4mo ago
National election day!
FeepingCreature
4mo ago
Well sure, but it's still wrong to say that baptists are pro-smuggling.
Rationalist here. Timeless decision theory was never explicitly designed for humans to use; it was always about "if we want to have AIs work properly, we'll need to somehow make them understand how to make decisions - which means we need to understand what's the mathematically correct way to make decisions. Hm, all the existing theories have rather glaring flaws and counterexamples that nobody seems to talk about."
That's why all the associated research stuff is about things like tiling, where AIs create successor AIs.
Of course, nowadays we teach AIs how to make decisions by plain reinforcement learning and prosaic reasoning, so this has all become rather pointless.
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