FirmWeird
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User ID: 757
FirmWeird
Randomly Generated Reddit Username
1mo ago
Note also that Trump isn’t demanding a loyalty test
He actually is demanding a loyalty test - but for loyalty to Israel rather than the USA.
FirmWeird
Randomly Generated Reddit Username
1mo ago
Dr. Tao is justified in complaining about the stick and I applaud him for it.
Actually, Dr. Tao signed a letter asking for the stick to be deployed against his classroom. He put his signature on a letter talking about how maths classrooms are actually bastions of white supremacy which need to be dismantled. If he was a principled apolitical actor who just wanted to do his research, then he would be justified in complaining about the stick - but even if we take your criticism seriously and make sure the stick is avoidable if you remain apolitical he still needs to get whacked.
FirmWeird
Randomly Generated Reddit Username
1mo ago
I ended up coming back.
Not because my work succeeded, but because I couldn't use the time I normally spent on the motte in a terribly productive way anyway (my employer owning the copyright to my offensive motte posts written on the clock is totally fine, my employer owning the copyright to my serious attempt at fiction is not).
FirmWeird
Randomly Generated Reddit Username
1mo ago
I know and see plenty of leftists online who say similar things in the way you're saying now.
If I started beating my wife to the point that she snaps and starts physically assaulting me while holding a gun, am I able to then accuse her of "underdog bias" and talk about how I'm actually the one being attacked when she strikes back? Are you sure she's not just failing to see the ways her own side holds institutional powers/firearms unfairly?
FirmWeird
Randomly Generated Reddit Username
6mo ago
This isn't really a question, but I'd like to announce that I'm effectively retiring from the Motte. I'm not doing this because I don't like arguing or haven't enjoyed my time here, but simply because I've started working on a personal creative project that's going to be taking up the time that I would have spent reading and responding to posts on here. As I'm still working a day job, I don't think I can maintain my presence here as well as pursuing what is effectively a second career. That said, if it proves to be a big success and I can retire from my day job, I'll likely come back - or alternatively if it turns out to be a massive failure and I become a bitter, jaded recluse I'll also come back.
FirmWeird
Randomly Generated Reddit Username
6mo ago
There were over 10M illegal immigrants under Biden, so that would need ~4k daily deportations for the entire presidency to undo. Seems unlikely/impossible to happen.
I believe a statement like this would technically be illegal in large parts of the world as it would effectively constitute holocaust denial. You probably don't want to go on the record as stating that it is "impossible" for governments to remove millions of people in a few years.
FirmWeird
Randomly Generated Reddit Username
6mo ago
Paraconsistent is right - I was referring to the USS Liberty incident. Ukraine to the best of my knowledge hasn't killed US servicemen, just US journalists and citizens (not that many people care about Gonzalo Lira). That said, I do think it plausible that several of the US "mercenaries" serving in Ukraine would have been killed for reasons of friendly fire or corruption - it's just that there won't be any way to confirm those rumors until the war is over, and legally they aren't actually actively serving.
FirmWeird
Randomly Generated Reddit Username
6mo ago
The 2001 AUMF is actually still in effect and gives the President total authority over who qualifies as a target. If you want to claim that there's something unprecedented about the use of wartime powers in supposed peace you're just flat out wrong - Trump wasn't involved in politics at all when the 2001 AUMF was put in place, and previous governments have used it to justify the warrantless surveillance of the entire American population. There are over two decades of precedents for this kind of behavior! I actually agree with you that this is bad, but you just look uninformed if you think that this is some brand new abuse of power.
FirmWeird
Randomly Generated Reddit Username
6mo ago
None of what you said applies at all to the story of Hind Rajab and what happened, but you don't seem to understand the source of a lot of those sickening images. The Hind Rajab foundation, for instance, works almost exclusively by archiving and publishing the posts made by IDF soldiers on social media - this isn't Hamas uploading brutal images to shock the west, but the IDF uploading recordings of their own actions with pride.
If you want to keep talking about this I'd be happy to, but your post seems like a reflexive response to the issue as a general theme rather than the specifics. If you think that what you've said is in anyway an appropriate description of what happened to Hind Rajab, Mohammed Bhar or countless other stories I think you should take a long hard look at yourself. Of course, you don't need to switch sides - as I've stated on here before, I simply prefer talking to Israelis who admit that their goal is ethnic cleansing and genocide rather than trying to spin a transparently false tale about what's happening.
FirmWeird
Randomly Generated Reddit Username
6mo ago
Come off it. You can argue that invoking war powers in peacetime is technically legal, but it is definitely unprecedented.
Are you familiar with the 2001 AUMF? There are 24 years of precedence, including the use of this authorisation to justify the NSA's warrantless surveillance.
FirmWeird
Randomly Generated Reddit Username
6mo ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia_Giuffre
Nice dodge on the other points though.
FirmWeird
Randomly Generated Reddit Username
6mo ago
I'd expect big box stores to be much less likely to employ illegal immigrants.
I freely admit to ignorance on this front - I'd heard multiple stories about the employment of illegal immigrants by larger companies, especially in hardware and convenience stores. I was under the impression that a HR department would actively encourage the employment of illegals given the policies of the Biden/Obama/Bush regimes, but if I'm wrong I'll accept that.
I see plenty of zoomers working cash registers in my area.
I don't - but this is just an anecdote, and I don't think this sort of thing would be evenly distributed. There's a decent chance that my area is just low in children and high in Indians, but I just can't accept that the vast increase in the number of Indians working low-paid jobs hasn't had an impact on the hiring market for the young people who used to work those positions.
FirmWeird
Randomly Generated Reddit Username
6mo ago
Politely claiming that discussions of Israel/Jews on The Motte are low-quality wouldn't have been against the rules,
And if that's what he did I'm sure that he wouldn't have been banned. I've made plenty of posts that would get me banned if I decided to be maximally offensive too.
FirmWeird
Randomly Generated Reddit Username
6mo ago
Have you heard the story of Hind Rajab? There are mountains of evidence with regards to the brutality on display, and multiple international prosecutions of the people involved. IDF members are now frequently unable to holiday in a large number of countries because they posted the war crimes they committed on social media for everyone to see. I personally have seen some of the most sickening images of my life come out of the conflict, and it actually does make me upset that my government supports what's happening (and the manufacture of the bomb delivery mechanisms that blew up those innocent people).
FirmWeird
Randomly Generated Reddit Username
6mo ago
more time is spent psychoanalysing your opponents than engaging with them.
Are you suggesting here that one of the ways to detect a conversation heading downwards is that you spend time psychoanalysing your opponents rather than engaging with them? For example, if someone said "My position is correct and anybody who doesn't agree with it is obviously stupid" that would be a sign that they're lowering the quality of the discourse, no?
FirmWeird
Randomly Generated Reddit Username
6mo ago
I simply don't believe the Gen-Z has it worse story. I can remember when I was in High School and everyone wanted a job at the local hardware store because it paid really well and wasn't that difficult if you had some level of real interest in, well, hardware stores
And now there are no kids working at the local hardware store, because the local hardware store ran out of business and got outcompeted by a big box that employs illegal immigrants for below-minimum wage. If you don't think the current generation has it worse I simply do not believe you have an accurate understanding of the world as it currently exists. I'm not Gen Z and while I could tell that I had fewer opportunities and conditions were worse compared to my parents, the employment market they're graduating into is fucking dire. Every single public-facing job I interact with that was previously done by a highschool kid is now done by an Indian adult.
FirmWeird
Randomly Generated Reddit Username
6mo ago
As a side note, the Trump administration seems to REALLY hate US assistance to foreign countries and they're doing their damndest to shut it off.
This isn't actually true. The Trump administration LOVES giving assistance to foreign countries, even foreign countries that actively murder US servicemen and is even willing to send US forces to die in order to make sure those foreign countries can continue to violate ceasefire agreements. This might sound glib, but I feel like pointing out that it obviously isn't foreign aid itself that Trump is objecting to - there's clearly some other criteria being used here, otherwise policy towards Israel and Ukraine would be very different.
FirmWeird
Randomly Generated Reddit Username
6mo ago
Are you serious? Blackmail is the most logical motivation behind having a media room which records powerful people having sex with children (which we know was happening), and the most likely reason for the government to refuse to release the incredibly well documented evidence that Epstein kept of what went down with all the other travelers on the "Lolita Express". But if you are really allergic to logical inference you can just replace "blackmail operation" with "child sex procurement operation" and the question still stands.
FirmWeird
Randomly Generated Reddit Username
6mo ago
The call to "release the Epstein files!" is basically a desire to second guess prosecutors and form vigilante lynch mobs to do an "independent investigation."
And these people are absolutely correct to second guess the prosecutors - we're expected to believe that Epstein and Maxwell's blackmail operation, which made a substantial amount of money and had detailed customer records had no clients whatsoever. As one twitter use put it, Ghislaine Maxwell was thrown in jail for trafficking children to ...nobody, apparently.
If you don't want people second-guessing prosecutors, the prosecutors should actually prosecute people who commit incredibly serious crimes with extremely dangerous consequences (i.e. acquiring illegal leverage over influential figures in business and politics). The real reason why they won't release those files is twofold - there are too many powerful people who would be taken down, and the damage to Israel's reputation would be far too great.
FirmWeird
Randomly Generated Reddit Username
6mo ago
If they were willing to prove Western technology was unable to intercept it, they could launch a single one at a US carrier battle group covered by land-based interceptors under ideal conditions for both parties and see what happens, but they haven't done that, so until they do I will remain convinced that it is likely very difficult to intercept but likely not impossible.
If they actually did this it would be the start of a nuclear war which ends global civilisation. Why exactly would Russia just blow up a carrier group unprovoked? If I said that body armor doesn't protect against powerful firearms "Well if that was true why wouldn't you just go shoot an antimateriel rifle at the local SWAT team?" would not be a very compelling argument.
I think you've slightly overstated the capabilities of hypersonic missiles.
In this situation it is actually Vladimir Putin you're accusing of overstating the capabilities of hypersonic missiles. Whatever else you can say about the man, I believe he's quite knowledgeable about the capabilities of Russian weapon systems.
Maybe they are, but maybe they aren't, and there are reasons to think that they aren't quite.
I don't see how the combination of hypersonics and throwing large numbers of cheap crap along as well can't defeat any modern missile defence system. Both of these are known weakpoints, and I don't quite understand how it'd be possible to overcome the two strategies in combination.
The only aircraft carrier that's been hit lately was by a cargo vessel. I've been over this with people on here before, everybody gangster about hitting aircraft carriers until you lose all of your orbital ISR assets.
The US has denied it but the Houthis claimed that they managed to damage an aircraft carrier recently. The houthis seem substantially more trustworthy than US officials to me, but I think we'll have to wait and see for more information on this one. The last time the houthis claimed to have hit an aircraft carrier and the US denied it, the carrier then left the region. For the record I doubt this was an actual direct strike - I think the damage in this instance would be caused by a delayed interception that lead to some minor damage rather than a direct hit. As for ISR assets I wasn't aware that Yemen had a space program.
Of course, if you're talking about the Russian space program, that would be followed shortly afterwards by the destruction of the western satellite surveillance system and everyone is worse off. I don't think there's any real way to prevent a modern nation from shooting down satellites just yet, especially surveillance satellites directly above their heads.
I dunno why you would say that. The Houthis have tried to hit US ships several times, and have failed.
The US Navy went in to bomb the Houthis in order to stop the Houthi missile attacks. The Houthi missile attacks did not stop, and the US navy left. I can't see any more likely motivation for the US to have left the area without achieving their goals. What other reason would they have to run away like that?
FirmWeird
Randomly Generated Reddit Username
6mo ago
In this sense, I'm evaluating these in terms of power first, particulars second; you seem to be saying "war of conquest" is the first or maybe only filter. Medium vs small conflicts, war of conquest or not, are part of the natural course of history and of only incidental and practical concern to the big powers.
No, I'm disagreeing with your entire premise. Your perspective here is fatally flawed and I can sum that flaw up in two words - proxy war. To use an older example where passions have cooled and the fog of war has largely lifted, were you aware that the US was never technically a party to the Vietnam war? You can go look it up - there was no actual declaration of war by the US congress. Sure, US soldiers and conscripts were fighting and dying, using US military equipment, but technically the US wasn't involved and so there was no norm violation. This is the kind of situation I was talking about when mentioning hypothetical Russian support for the conflict - in the alternative world where they abided by your norms, they would simply use the same strategy the US did in the Vietnam war. Absolutely nothing on the ground would change, but your norm would be satisfied. This is why I make the claim that it has to be universal or not at all - because we have already seen the gigantic loophole left in there to allow the US to continue to wage war largely unrestricted.
Similarly, China merely announcing support for a separatist Taiwanese party is not in and of itself a violation. They still have a mostly-functioning democracy, it could always backfire, and if they genuinely decide to join China it's a massive mistake but their right, I suppose.
To repeat my point, I'm talking about China arming a separatist faction and providing support in the same way they provided support to the South Vietnam government.
More broadly... something I've been sitting on for a while and still don't quite have an answer to, is the idea of secession in general. It feels like 'we' (Western thought?) reached some kind of vague idea about when revolutions are okay-ish, but it doesn't feel like anyone (or any ideology) has a good answer to when secessionism is, and if so, what form it ought to take (or can be allowed to take).
The answer to this question is that secession is allowed when it is in the interests of the US empire, and condemned when it is not. That's the only dividing line in the moral condemnation provided, and I challenge you to find a counterexample that isn't completely irrelevant to US interests.
FirmWeird
Randomly Generated Reddit Username
6mo ago
do you think otherwise?
The Avangard is several years older, and in a completely different class of weapon. Why exactly would Putin make a big deal of announcing their newest weapon platform if it is inferior to the one they already demonstrated five years ago? They're claiming that western technology is unable to intercept it and they're willing to prove it, which I don't think they'd be willing to do if that wasn't true. I think that's actually fairly believable, given that the US is several years behind in hypersonic technology and isn't even able to test interception of these weapons because they can't even make them for themselves.
We've been discussing the technical capabilities of interception. My understanding is that the US Navy intercepted quite a few of the Houthis' rockets. I believe the Houthis' success over the US military is not in the technical realm but rather in the fact that they are using cheap weapons in great quantities.
They intercepted quite a few of the rockets and completely failed to accomplish their objective, before being forced to run away with their tail between their legs - there's no world in which this wasn't an embarrassment for the US navy. I explicitly mentioned that swarm attacks are another weakness of those missile interdiction systems. The only thing that matters in terms of military technology is effectiveness, and if these systems have a known failure mode that's easy and economical to exploit... do you think the Russians or Chinese are just going to play nice and not exploit the flaws in those systems? Those incredibly expensive aircraft carriers remain gigantic floating targets no matter the specifics of how their defence systems failed.
It's anybody's guess how effective these systems are but it's hard to hit what you can't see.
I mean, my guess is "ineffective" given that they very clearly haven't done their job so far.
FirmWeird
Randomly Generated Reddit Username
6mo ago
Here, here's the head of the US Missile Defense Agency saying that we can use the SM-6 (in production since 2013) against the new maneuvering hypersonics.
Posted on Feb 3, 2022
You mean against the OLD maneuvering hypersonics. There's two years and change between this announcement and the demonstration of the Oreshnik.
I don't think (and I think Admiral Hill would agree with me) that it's a comfortable capability, and the US is working on other tech to better handle the threat.
The SM6, to the best of my knowledge, was used to defend Israeli shipping efforts from the Houthi's rocket attacks, and the result is that Israel's most prominent port went bankrupt because the US was unable to deter the Houthis from blowing up and attacking shipping vessels. If it can't stop the Houthis I have significant doubts about its ability to stop the far more advanced Russians. I'm sure the US is working on other tech to better handle the threat, and I'm sure that one day the technology will be capable of stopping what the Russians can do right now. That's not going to be much use in a conflict that takes place before the US manages to catch up, and who knows how long that will take?
But if you are trying to hit a ship or other maneuvering object (which is part of the attraction of hypersonics, they are fast), you usually use radar or IR/visual guidance, all of which can be soft-killed.
I freely admit ignorance as to how a soft-kill system would work here, so I'll just take your word for it that they'd be able to stop some missiles - but I don't think they'll be able to stop enough missiles to make strikes with large enough numbers to get through uneconomical.
I always find people making mocking "Da Jooos" comments to be mildly annoying, and ultimately counterproductive when talking about cases like this. Nobody is alleging some kind of bullshit secret conspiracy here - the "conspiracy" is completely out in the open and not even being disputed in the slightest. You have an Israeli partisan for an attorney general, who was complained about massively before they were appointed, letting an Israeli official get away with extremely serious offences. They're openly proud about what they're doing and boast about it (well until they got attention for it and deleted their account) to boot. There's no need to mock people for being credulous antisemites in a case like this unless you want to make sure that absolutely nobody gives a shit about antisemitism in the future. After seeing people use "oh you think DA JOOS" are behind this too when people object to official actions by the Israeli government I just can't take people who participate in that kind of juvenile mockery of legitimate concerns seriously.
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