FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
And every gimmick hungry yob
Digging gold from rock n roll
Grabs the mic to tell us
he'll die before he's sold
But I believe in this
And it's been tested by research
He who fucks nuns
Will later join the church
User ID: 195
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
3mo ago
The Senate was designed from the beginning to give outsized representation to small populations. The House was designed to give proportional representation based on population. Making the House into a Senate with one extra step buggers that design.
But also just look at the numbers for New York State circa 2000 to 2010, in just one census. Percentage wise the fastest growing counties grew by 10%, the fastest shrinking ones shrank by 10%, by raw numbers +50k vs -30k. Take that over a very long time frame and you would have absolutely bonkers districts.
The bigger problem with redistricting is that before we get into crass political motives there are a whole bunch of different ways that people want the congressional districts to be drawn. Everyone wants geometrical simplicity, the smallest number of lines and vertices possible to delineate an area, else they mock the complicated shapes drawn by the map makers. Everyone wants demographic consistency, we should feel some commonality with our fellow voters. Everyone wants geographic defensibility, the district should constitute a defined region that is used in common understanding and not a random slice of people, the line shouldn't run right through a neighborhood. Basically the ideal in people's heads is square districts that contain a clear common identity.
And that's basically impossible while also achieving the same population, but also changes over time. When I was born my neighborhood was much less developed and more rural, people around here felt more in common with the areas north and west of us, went to the same John Deere dealerships and farm shows as the hicks. Now, after decades of homebuilding, the same area has a population that has more in common with the city to the east of us, going to the same coffee shops and yoga studios. A steady district containing the same geographic area would fail on multiple fronts over time.
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
3mo ago
So what's the deal with the National Guard deployments? I've seen a lot of reporting around whether the cities want the Guard, whether Trump will deploy the Guard, whether the courts will force Trump to pull the Guard out, etc.
But I haven't seen much reporting on the impact that Guard is having where it is deployed. Is crime down, even anecdotally? Are the streets safer? Have National Guardsman shot or beat up or detained anyone?
Was it a good idea? What are the early results?
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
3mo ago
I mean it depends on the hypothetical scenario, right? You can draw this beer debate up any number of ways. I should note that the argument started with the complaint, more true years ago than it is now, that every white collar office had at least one Marathon Guy who wouldn't shut up about his marathon running, while if one talked about one's squat one was considered a declasse meathead weirdo. My interlocutor argued that a marathon was something you bragged about because it was a real accomplishment that not everyone could do, where a big squat was easy.
If you're in the Big Bad John scenario where your path is blocked by a single large object and you can't break it apart, you need to be able to lift up the beam all at once, breaking it into pieces isn't an option.
Or if I'm rolling in BJJ with someone stronger than me but who has worse cardio, if I don't have sufficient strength to stop him from passing guard and submitting me before he runs out of gas, it doesn't matter how much better my cardio is because he wins before I can outlast him. I need enough strength to stay alive and wear him out so I can take advantage of his lack of conditioning.
To be fair, while I think I won the bet by default, my mind was changed by the end of it, and I'm pretty sure most of what I said leading into the bet was wrong. The actual experience of completing a marathon with no training pretty much disabused me of the notion that it was easy or just a casual thing. I was destroyed afterward, despite the slow speed, my feet and back were killing me afterward, it was days before I was walking normally.
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
3mo ago
Just wanted to say, thought of you: here's another example of a billionaire signing over his assets and power of attorney to a shady financial adviser who might have been his gay lover.
So you were right, I guess it's happened at least twice. I suppose I should update away from Epstein conspiracy theories.
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
3mo ago
No.
I think Trump would very much dislike having a loss on his record as president, and bounces back and forth on whether that means he needs to push negotiation at any cost, or that he needs to keep Ukraine from losing, or if he can just blame the whole thing on Biden and pretend the USA didn't lose.
It's pretty similar to the gyrations of Nixon and Kissinger during the Vietnam war and the Decent Interval combined with bombing Laos and Cambodia.
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
3mo ago
I've outlined this at length before, but I have a lot of trouble seeing how an open minded reading of the OT makes it reasonable to expect God to do anything in particular with the Israelites on any particular day. God throws them back and forth constantly in ways that make sense to him and maybe to the Israelites themselves, but are rarely easily diagnosed by outsiders.
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
3mo ago
Wouldn't it pretty clearly be angling at a Divine Taboo: even questioning Israel or talking with someone who might cause you to question Israel is so offensive to the Almighty that he might smite you early just to be safe.
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
3mo ago
I had a climber friend who was super into endurance running, I was pretty into weightlifting, we were jawing back and forth about which one was harder/more impressive. His argument was that running a marathon was much harder because it took much longer and much more effort, one is destroyed after running a marathon where one is just fine after a 1rm. I argued that a big back squat was more impressive as if you can't squat 300lbs, you just can't squat 300lbs, where if I wanted to run a marathon today I could, it would just take a while, give me enough time and I can travel 26.2 miles on foot today no problem, but if you can't squat 300lbs in the morning you won't squat it in the evening either.*
So this bet formed where I would run a marathon, and then he would attempt a back squat at a weight set as a percentage of the world record equivalent to the percentage of my marathon speed relative to that world record.
He basically thought there was no fucking way I would ever finish a marathon without any training, so he was safe.
Ultimately I did finish the marathon, but he welched and started trying to argue about needing to do the squat as a percentage of the world record at his weight class, which I said was stupid because I didn't get the advantage of running a marathon at the 195lb record. Then that argument kind of ended the thing.
I would say that while I did finish 26.2 miles with no training and just guts, it sucked way worse than I thought it would. So we both kinda had a point.
*My argument ignores the option of breaking the 300lb object into smaller pieces, or needing to run the 26.2 miles per hour at a certain speed to avoid something catching you
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
3mo ago
In this edition of pissant goals I'm working towards, I'm taking my first step towards my long term plan of finishing a century ride on my bike. I haven't gone much farther than 20mi in a single ride before, so my plan is over the upcoming months to set goals of first a metric half century, then an imperial half century, then a metric century, then a full century.
This weekend I'm going to attempt a metric half, down at the Jersey shore. This was where I had previously done my eponymous five hour marathon to settle a bet, in the early or late off-season the shore is ideal for self-planned endurance events in that it is A) Empty, B) Pretty, C) mild weather-wise, D) Relevant flair there's a Wawa every so often that is open 24 hours a day I think there's seven on my intended 50km route, creating natural aid stations where I can get a drink or a Snickers or a band-aid rather than packing all that stuff in, E) It's easy to convince my wife to go there with me for a couple days, F) Navigation is easy as the barrier islands are very long and narrow with mostly grid-layouts, so as long as you know where the sun or the water is it's pretty much impossible to get lost, and finally for cycling it is F) flat. Worst case scenario and I crash or injure myself, I call my wife to come get me. Best case scenario, I call her to meet me at the end for our brunch reservation in Cape May.
It's funny, because I know that this is a truly irrelevant distance for anyone who is even a modestly serious cyclist, but it is also a reasonable challenge for me in that I haven't attempted a distance this long before. I'm excited to try something I've never done before, with what I find to be the right degree of planning and preparation, which is to say less than most people would recommend but enough that I think I can get it done safely. If I do ok on 35 miles, I might try to do a 50 mile next month, but after that I'll have to spend the winter working on getting faster. I've yet to really fail on endurance anywhere, but I struggle to keep any tempo over ~60 for very long, which limits my ability to climb and go very fast, and I think I'll need to sustain 18mph to credibly finish a century. Any slower than that and I don't think I'll be able to stay in the saddle long enough to finish. Then I'll target a metric century in early spring, and a full century in late spring, or if that doesn't work out this time next year. Or I might actually seek out a real event for a century ride.
I suppose I'll need a new username if I finish, but SevenHourCentury just doesn't sound right.
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
3mo ago
Oh it's absolutely effective for calorie restriction without counting too much or overly punishing yourself in social situations ("I don't eat after 8pm" is an easier thing to explain than "I don't eat a long list of foods based on a logic you may or may not agree with").
I just find it amusing that "skip breakfast and avoid snacking late at night" is like grocery-store-checkout women's magazine tier advice, classic weightwatchers stuff. While "I do intermittent fasting on a strict schedule" is optimization bro Huberman-pilled advice.
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
3mo ago
Not to critique our Gungan friend, but 8pm isn't an early dinner.
Like, 10am-4pm would probably be the longest window that is really intermittent fasting, and it's more classically 12pm-4pm. Once it gets to 12pm-6pm you're just skipping breakfast and not snacking, any bigger window than that you're barely doing anything unusual.
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
3mo ago
Congratulations! May you be an example for us all!
I do find it funny/trendy when people label "eating a late breakfast" as intermittent fasting.
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
3mo ago
"Young" in this case is 18-40, adults working in a professional capacity.
I ran into this in my local Republican party, I was invited to join the Young Republicans and I laughed, saying I'm 30 and I'm married and I have a mortgage, I think I'm just a regular Republican. They said oh no it goes up to 40, and I was flabbergasted.
Is there anyone who thinks the Young Republicans is an important organization, and not a kind of hanger-on group that doesn't really achieve much if anything? It strikes me as an organization that exists within the party structure so that it doesn't not exist, and hierarchy-wise it gives you a few sinecures for minor apparatchiks working their way through the party, but I don't think the Young Republicans carry any real power.
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
3mo ago
Notably, Czechs and Slovaks retain the right of return, or just free travel, through each other's countries.
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
3mo ago
What really used to get me were the diminutives, which are not intuitive to an English speaker. Ilya doesn't naturally turn Ilushka in my mind.
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
3mo ago
So...is there any reporting whatsoever on the giant explosion that killed at least sixteen at an explosives factory in Tennessee?
The latest I can find on it seems to be treating it as most likely an industrial accident, but secondarily a "criminal" matter. The company website appears to have been turned into a flat landing page about the accident.
The early-morning Friday explosion at Accurate Energetic Systems, a manufacturing plant for military and demolition explosives, was a “devastating blast,” Davis said, noting responders were able to secure the site by late morning. The detonation – which was so large that it registered as a 1.6 magnitude earthquake, according to data from U.S. Geological Survey – left charred debris and mangled vehicles across the area. The blast set off smaller explosions, local officials said, and shook homes as far as 15 miles away while scattering debris over half a square mile. Accurate Energetic Systems called the incident at its facility a “tragic accident,” in a Friday statement. Davis described the event as one of “the most devastating scenes” he has ever seen. “It’s hell,” Davis told reporters Friday evening. “It’s hell on us. It’s hell on everybody involved.”
The NYT is treating it as an accident, headlining their work "Detonation Underscores Inherent Dangers of Manufacturing Explosives." This appears to be back page news across the country. I saw it reported in the paper, and a passing mention on CNBC.
But what shocks me is that the right wing news organizations aren't looking into it! Quickly glancing at the websites of FoxNews, OANN, and Breitbart at noon today, I didn't see one of them mentioning it on their front page. Instead headlines were devoted to such pressing issues as some kind of drummed up urban conflict storyline, a state department employee who mishandled classified documents, and Charlie Kirk. Breitbart in particular has their top article: Exposed: The CCP’s United Front Network in America’s Heartland, Part III engaging in extensive conspiracy theories about CCP influence in the United States. But WHY AREN'T THEY TALKING ABOUT THE REALLY REALLY LIKELY RUSSIAN SABOTAGE THAT JUST HAPPENED IN TENNESSEE KILLING 16 AMERICAN CITIZENS AND DESTROYING AN INDUSTRIAL DEFENSE CONCERN?
It seems really bleedingly obvious to me. We have the facts: that Trump announced publicly that he would offer targeting help to Ukraine and is thinking about adding Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine's quiver. Then, not a few days later, a defense plant in Tennessee blows up. Is it not clear that the latter is likely to be a consequence of the former? Russia covertly blows up a defense plant, to tell the USA "we can touch you, don't think we can't."
I might be tinfoil-hatting here. But what's making me tinfoil hat is that nobody else is tinfoil hatting! Even the people who are normally tinfoil hatting! The New York Times and the TurboLib MSNBC contingent has been seeing Russia's wicked hand everywhere since 2016, and more than ever since the war in the Ukraine began. Why are they ignoring the likelihood that Russia killed 16 American citizens? OANN sees wicked foreigners behind every corner seeking to undermine America, why aren't they at least floating the possibility that a foreign saboteur just undermined America's industrial strength? Breitbart doesn't have high standards for proof when reporting on possible foreign conspiracies, and they aren't saying anything!
What's going on here? Am I crazy?
The only explanations I can come to are that it was the Russians, and that's why it isn't being speculated in the news that it was the Russians. Either that the government is shutting everyone up quietly to avoid panic. Or that it was the Russians and they have enough pull with Breitbart to keep them quiet. Because I genuinely can't believe I'm not seeing speculation about this. Talk me off the ledge here guys.
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
3mo ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_genocide?wprov=sfti1
I'll confess to knowing nothing about the Bulgarian case, and I'm not going to insult you by immediately researching it as pretending to. But the Turkish-Greek split was not without atrocities on either side.
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
3mo ago
My impression was that the pure Jewish birth rate was actually stronger than the Israeli Arab birthrate these days, though then you zoom in closer and it gets into different categories of Jew, though then there's an intra Jewish genocide question, idk it all gets pretty complicated and I'm not sure what we're talking about at a certain point.
But there's no viable contiguous Palestinian state that can be drawn without evicting large numbers of Jews, who show no evidence of wanting to go peacefully. The resources and transit aren't there. You can make a retarded botched abortion of a statelet, but I'm not sure that will really solve the problem anymore.
So you're left with somebody getting kicked out of the place they live.
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
3mo ago
Where has it been done successfully and without significant atrocities performed?
People mostly point to Europe, while ignoring the significant violent ethnic cleansing operations against Germans et al post WWII, and the whole context of WWII preceding it, and the EU framework that followed. India-Pakistan certainly wasn't peacefully, and still not entirely successfully. So, where?
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
3mo ago
There is no realistic two state solution that does not involve ethnic cleansing of Arabs and Jews both. The remaining areas allotted and allowed to Palestinians are so marginal and split up by settlers that there is no contiguous state possible without expelling large numbers of Jews. Otherwise a Palestinian state is unworkable and unviable, certainly not prosperous.
A one state solution is the only non-genocidal solution on offer. Recognize Palestine all they want, the West will lack the stomach to murder the Jewish settlers who drive wedges through any possible Palestine.
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
3mo ago
Recommend me any outside the box interpretations I can bring to book club to look smart l.
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
3mo ago
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
3mo ago
IMO this is likely the peak of Palestinian sympathizing as a media/cultural force.
You want to get out at the top, not ride your bit down.
Pre 10/7, Palestinian hard-liners found themselves being abandoned by their long term backers with no realistic path forward. Free Palestine on the western left was becoming a really niche bumper sticker, like Free Tibet or Zapatista tier. Arab powers were showing a willingness to make peace with Israel without reference to Palestine or even the Arab population of Israel. The Abraham Accords were a major step towards permanent defeat of the Palestinian cause. Israel was looking like a normal country with a thriving economy and no problems which would keep international investors out.
The goal of 10/7 realistically was to reopen the conflct, draw Israel into fighting, denormalize Israeli life and economics, isolate Israel on the international stage. At some point you've maxed out the effectiveness of using dead babies for propaganda, and further dead babies have a diminishing marginal return. And at some point, the destruction wrought onto Gaza is net negative for Hamas, the loss of life undermines their ability to govern and rebuild.
So at some number of dead kids and world outrage, they'll cash out and make peace-noises.
Or at least I think a lasting Israeli victory is the most likely to maximize happiness in the region for the Palestinian population if they cease agitating.
The only realistic solution that doesn't involve ethnic cleansing is one state, or effectively one state, containing most of the current populations. How one achieves that without destroying what makes Israel worthwhile is the problem.
FiveHourMarathon
Wawa Nationalist
3mo ago
Does the Charlie Kirk thing have legs? It's been the Current Thing in our newspapers since before the body was cold.
Not exactly a take or an argument, but there's a billboard in my town with Charlie's face on it and the phrase "Well Done Good and Faithful Servant, Well Done." And it's sponsored by a prominent local Republican family. And every time I pass it I'm deeply uncomfortable, like passing Dr. T.J. Eckleberg on my way to the Hamptons.
The phrasing is weird. Who is speaking? Was Charlie the servant of this local Republican family? Or are they speaking/writing as God? Because that's just so disturbing and arrogant, you don't write as God. And how is it appropriate to say Well Done to Charlie at this time? I mean, sure, say the guy was a good guy, you can even say he achieves more as a martyr (Joe Hill or Horst Wessel as your opinion runs], but it's just so off-putting to say "Well Done" for dying. This wasn't Charlie doing well, this wasn't what Charlie wanted, he wanted to be alive raising his kids.
And why is a private individual sponsoring it? It would be one thing for the local Republican party, or even a local evangelical church, to do it. But just a guy? It's weird and self centered.
I'm bothered by it every time I drive by it.
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