FtSoA
4hr ago
Just about everyone is doing "a lot better" than Iran, since they have hyperinflation and water shortages.
The debated point was, "How much is that a result of US sanctions vs. mismanagement?"
I was pointing out Germany was a funny example to bring up since they have managed to royally fuck up their economy the last while with unforced errors.
FtSoA
4hr ago
Why do you think in any way it's a good idea to directly compare mass protests and regime change in Iran to Russia's invasion of Ukraine?
Those are not analogous scenarios. You've essentially provided a Gish Gallop of incredibly wrong military analysis.
It's actually something of a prevalent myth that strategic bombing in WWII didn't have a major impact on the outcome of the war, but that's also not an analogous situation.
I love that you leave out "China" when discussing the Korean War.
The prior Israeli and American bombing of Iran did nothing, there was no significant military or political effect.
I don't know what evidence I could possibly provide here to change your mind, given all the available evidence you've presumably had the chance to encounter.
Bombing Iran more aggressively is the surest path to them nuclearizing.
Seriously? I thought they didn't want weapons? What are they waiting for?
Russia and China will support Iran to inflict costs on the US
Where were they last June?
If you think the regime might be collapsing and is totally unsustainable then why bomb, why should the US not just do nothing and save a lot of effort, risk and blood?
Ensuring victory of the opposition and reducing the chance of protracted conflict and bloodshed.
This recent Venezuela campaign seems to be totally incoherent.
Imagine if you will how you would feel if Venezuela had been undergoing mass, violent protests?
At least when people bring up Libya they're conceding that air power in support of on-the-ground opposition can be quite effective at regime change.
FtSoA
5hr ago
Do you live in the Middle East?
Because that was the geographic context of the response. They don't control territory anymore, but they still do attacks worldwide.
FtSoA
6hr ago
No real prospect of overthrowing the regime
Weird that the regime has taken the nationwide comms blackout to a new level and been gunning people down then.
I can't really think of an explanation for the way the protesters are acting except to conclude that they're being intentionally lured by Mossad
Ah yes, your inability to reason clearly about a fairly straightforward incentive structure is better explained by the Iranians being fooled by the crafty Jews.
The Iranians know the score. The regime has been in power for nearly 50 years. Nobody doesn't know the risks.
FtSoA
6hr ago
Oh, I think Iran and Russia are just as much enemies of the American people as Al Qaeda is.
Regardless, can we do the math on how many people was Assad killing? I think it was more.
There's no great option here.
FtSoA
6hr ago
You're right that it "could be" the case that Iranian-Americans were willing to conduct terrorism on the Islamic regime's behalf. That rate is infinitesimal, empirically.
Presumably Shakeri thought the FBI wasn't going to publish the fact of the interview. I don't know the logic of why the FBI did what it did.
There's a well-documented history of Iran conducting operations against Jews worldwide over decades.
People love to mistake Iranian incompetence for "ah they didn't actually want to hurt anyone." "They couldn't be that irrational." Like the time they wanted to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to the US in Washington DC. Or like the time they fired ballistic missiles at US forces in Iraq and didn't do much, so the explanation among nonsensical people was "clearly it was all for show." For their part, the Iranians believed the MSM lied about the casualties they had actually caused, because they knew their missiles hit the geocoords. (We did have troops in bunkers get TBIs from the impacts.)
I've personally got to witness Iranian efforts to kill Americans and Jews, so I know not to confuse their incompetence with malicious intent.
FtSoA
6hr ago
Assad is a major ally of Iran and Russia, traditional enemies of the US.
So far the Al Qaeda guy seems better than Assad.
FtSoA
8hr ago
Sure, it's not nothing. They could sell oil to China at market prices instead of at a discount, for example.
But, as with Cuba, sanctions a supporting factor.
Also, lol, consider how shitty Germany's economy is without any US sanctions.
FtSoA
9hr ago
Counter anecdote: It's the exact opposite of what I was seeing on Twitter as it was happening.
FtSoA
9hr ago
No, sanctions are not responsible for decades of Islamic socialism driving the economy into the ground and hyperinflation via mismanagement. Don't take it from me, take it from Iran's president.
The dire economic situation is the underlying reality that triggers mass discontent, but there have been plenty of mass protests before for democratic reforms (not regime change).
FtSoA
9hr ago
Team work makes the dream work imo.
We have complimentary capabilities in intelligence and air power. My understanding is the rate of Israeli strikes was only possible due to direct logistics support by the US.
FtSoA
9hr ago
Would Iran, with its half-million strong diaspora in America, able to call upon thousands of Shiite Muslim Americans to do their bidding
Come on man. Think about it. They came to America. They are not regime fans.
I have some "lived experience" with Iran assassination plots and I can tell you it's real.
You're assuming he knew he was talking to the FBI when he gave up that information. You'd be surprised what people will say if they think you're in the know.
Iran has a documented history of using criminals, foreign and domestic, to conduct assassination operations because they have leverage and plausible deniability. (See how easy it was to get you to believe there's no way it could be Iran?)
FtSoA
9hr ago
Both parties have interventionists and noninterventionists, hawks and doves. Both parties will sometimes flip based on negative polarization of the other party being in charge.
Plus, foreign policy is by default less likely to be a Culture War topic.
The major change is Trump as a person and MAGA in general have a strange, not always coherent, set of foreign policy instincts. Iran hawks wanted to pull out of JCPOA, kill Soleimani, bomb Iran's nuclear program, and foster regime change. Trump, bit by bit, seems to be going along with that agenda. I'm seeing indications we're taking a harder line on Russia, and we just did the Venezuela op. (Little Marco is getting stuff done.) But Trump also likes to shit on NATO more than seems ideal, and then there's the whole Greenland issue. Oh, and Trump has been soft on China it seems? I don't understand it.
If either Vance or Rubio becomes president, I think there will be a much more consistent foreign policy than Trump's vibe-based approach.
FtSoA
10hr ago
about how Israel completely dismantled Fordow
Israel?
THAT’s why Trump leaned on them to stop. It was becoming unsustainable without major US military action in support of Israel chucking nukes.
What a wonderful alternative theory of events. We had to hold Israel back for their own good.
risking a giant fiasco in the Middle East over a shot at toppling the Iranian regime.
Some would argue the giant fiasco in the Middle East is not toppling the Islamic regime. Do you know how much easier Iraq would have been without Iranian interference? Syria? Yemen? Palestine? Lebanon?
the leadership will start throwing everything they have at Israel in retaliation
Israel knows and they seem fine with it. Solve the problem once and for all, you know? They've been advocating for more strikes before these protests kicked off.
FtSoA
10hr ago
You are correct. The protestors know this. They know the IRGC will, almost certainly, have to be forcibly removed.
The IRGC was designed to be an ideologically aligned military arm of the Islamic regime, as the name makes clear. They are very much the system that protestors seek to overthrow.
FtSoA
10hr ago
Those are better comparisons for sure.
Syria is a case of a LACK of Western intervention, however. Assad got a ton of support from Russia and Iran, which is why he really started losing when both of those countries had to focus on more immediate problems.
Libya is pretty different from Iran in a host of ways. For one, Gaddafi wasn't a major thorn in our side at the time. The Islamic regime is an ongoing threat that could be removed.
In my essay, I talk about the risk of separatism. You can't have a perfect future guaranteed. The most successful military intervention the US ever did, according to most anyway, was WWII. Which ended up leading to the Cold War with the USSR as our primary enemy, and then the rise of China. Whoops.
In my view, this case seems fairly straightforward once you consider the possible outcomes relative to baseline. The Islamic regime is really bad for Iran and the world.
FtSoA
10hr ago
the likelihood of a real boots-on-ground invasion
Now do Greenland, lol [cries].
FtSoA
10hr ago
You are correct that it's not about taking out one person.
Iran is generally ruled by committees of senior officials and advisors, with the Supreme Leader ultimately signing off. It gives him the ability to blame whoever advocated for a course of action if things go poorly. The Supreme Leader has ultimate authority, but is shielded from any direct accountability. Classic "good Tsar, bad Boyars" government design.
Basically the entire reason for the Iranian president is to be the fall guy for economic policies failing. You can vote him out.
What would matter is taking on the security agencies, such that they stop performing effectively at killing protestors and begin switching sides. Just the very act of intervention would probably have a large impact on people's views on the ultimate outcome. Gotta get a preference cascade started.
FtSoA
10hr ago
Not that I'd advocate for it, but Delta probably wants another try at a major Iran op, just out of unit pride.
FtSoA
11hr ago
You can't really have "a rival faction" when the police state kills those off immediately in the normal course of business.
But also a mass uprising is a mass uprising, and you're just making up something about a "rival faction." These are the first protests where regime change, not reform, is the explicit goal. Millions of Iranians are risking their lives to take out the regime. They might succeed on their own. They'll almost certainly succeed with some shock and awe backing them up.
FtSoA
11hr ago
We've already done a recent intervention in the Middle East that went pretty well.
Namely, we bombed Iran's nuclear program (and supported Israel bombing other targets). There were decades of handwringing about Iran's weapons program and the downsides of intervention and it turned out most of that was needless concern.
Here's another one: Heard much about ISIS lately? Probably not, because we blew the fuck out of them.
That's the great thing here: Bombing is low risk, and things are already so bad for the Iranian people it would be hard for them to get worse.
Even a humanitarian disaster would be something chosen by the Iranians, and we take an enemy of Western Civilization out.
Knowing what we know now, we could have done the invasions in Iraq and Afghanistan and then simply left. We don't have to do "you break it you buy it" if our concern is removing enemies, and not nation building. (Noting that taking out Saddam wasn't a great idea for the general geopolitical reason that he didn't have a nuclear weapons program, and Iran did, and he was their primary enemy.)
Iran is in a far better position to succeed as a country if the regime is removed than any recent example I can think of.
FtSoA
11hr ago
Eh, Mossadegh was not actually that great at democracy since he violated the law to seize power and dismiss parliament.
One could also argue the US/West owe Iran a debt since we helped get them into this mess. (Which we did by basically facilitating Khomeini's return and believing his lies about running a democracy.)
FtSoA
11hr ago
What if there are no guarantees and Iran is not like Libya for a multitude of reasons?
FtSoA
11hr ago
Do you routinely hear people complain about the Iranian diaspora?
Something to that, I reckon.
Who's saying anything about an occupation?
I swear to god so many people have brainworms that any potential foreign intervention must be directly compared to the interventions in Iraq or Afghanistan. There are other ways to do things than occupying and nation building. (Also, Iraq is doing ok these days.)
Well, we can be very positive Al Qaeda won't be running things in Iran.
They presently have a Shia theocracy running things. That's a major reason they're a problem.
The opposition, in contrast, wants secular democracy.
More options
Context Copy link