FtSoA
1mo ago
At first, bombing facilities and leadership is a good start. So is denying air power to the regime.
Later, as the protestors gain control of areas, they can be protected from the air.
The immediate Schelling point is removing the regime from power. Any domestic opposition could only be very loosely organized in advance because Iran runs a highly effective police state. The exceptions are some separatist movements like they have in Kurdistan and Baluchistan.
So if this continues, the opposition will be organizing as it goes. Prominent figures who join from the regime, whether political or military leaders, could play an important role if they defect.
There is the former crown prince, who could serve as a transition figure to elections. Lots of controversy over how plausible that is.
FtSoA
1mo ago
You're right about material support.
But that's not the precipitating factor. Things like hyperinflation are.
FtSoA
1mo ago
Frankly, as with the Venezuelans, if you had Trump go to the Iranian protestors and go, "Hey, what's in this for me?" "Can I get back that oil value with interest?"
I think they'd sign on the dotted line without a second thought. After all, many of them are willing to pay with their lives.
Trump would be pro-Iraq War if we had just gotten more oil out of it. He's refreshingly pragmatic on the issue of foreign intervention. I'm more interested in the great power dynamics of taking out allies of Russia and China myself, plus unleashing the magic of capitalism for the locals.
Keep in mind that Mossadegh concerned the West for a number of reasons during the Cold War. And that, constitutionally, he was appointed by the Shah and could be dismissed by the Shah. Instead, he seized emergency powers and rigged an election. He was not very popular towards the end of his tenure. Operation Ajax was something of a counter-coup if you judge it fairly.
FtSoA
1mo ago
I'm not arguing this time they really are developing WMDs. Iran has long had an active nuclear research program with an at-least-latent weaponization angle. How close they are to break out capacity is hotly contested of course, after the Fordow bombing.
You were arguing that they would pursue the bomb if we intervene ... more than we already have of late. I don't think that's actually a real risk in that it's already baked in before this.
The opposition is not totally unknown in terms of its characteristics. They aren't Al Qaeda affiliates, for example. They aren't commies.
The US and Israel have a large number of potential options without a carrier group, FYI. I don't need to publish an OPORD to advocate for the basic idea of something we and Israel have a proven capacity to do.
We already have a good idea of potential blowback from Iran, since we just bombed them six months ago. They're worse off considerably than they were before.
We can also estimate the plausibility of various outcomes from toppling the regime and evaluate the costs and benefits.
You seem unwilling to do that in any reality-based way, since you lack a command of very basic facts about Iran in particular and military strategy in general. I think any objective observer who isn't suffering from Iraq Syndrome or a committed isolationist can see this is a good case for it.
Funnily enough, Iran also has a good deal of oil and gas. My point is just that in Venezuela Trump had Delta swoop in and rendition the leader, leaving everything else intact. Which is a strange situation! Will they get democracy? Who knows! In Iran, the mass protests for regime change are ongoing. If we were to assist with that regime change, the boulder is already rolling down the hill.
FtSoA
1mo ago
and deliver them American-Grade™️
Good thing I didn't advocate for that I suppose.
It's really fucking funny to point out they have less obesity than Americans during a period where food is exorbitantly expensive for them. In America, those we subsidize food for have an enhanced risk of obesity. In Iran, even the subsidized are skinny.
Iran doesn't have to be a theocracy to still be Islamic, is the thing. The Shah was a Muslim ffs. So was Saddam.
FtSoA
1mo ago
You don't have to convince me that the US should have taken strong action against the USSR and Red China, since obviously that went poorly for us later on.
And continues to. We got lucky the Cold War went as well as it did, and we have to hope our rivalry with China goes well.
(Of course, one major difference between WWI and WWII is that the Axis did attack us and declare war on us.)
I think WWII does come from the ashes of WWI--undoubtedly--but Hitler was a singular figure, a true Great Man of history. Without him, WWII was not destiny in a way that WWI kinda was from the alliances and ideas of the time.
Without Hitler, perhaps WWII would have been the West vs. the Commies over expansion in Eastern Europe.
FtSoA
1mo ago
The Shah is commonly regarded as a weak leader, even by his defenders, particularly compared to his father, Reza Shah. And, ironically, his sister (here we see the problems with hereditary monarchy). He was neither sufficiently brutal, nor sufficiently compromising; not enough love or fear. And he had cancer.
There is a great irony that left-leaning and anti-interventionist types love to harp on Operation Ajax overthrowing democracy and all that, but Mossadegh was simply a stronger strong man and descended from the Qajars--the dynasty Reza Shah overthrew a few decades earlier. Operation Ajax was actually a counter-coup, as Mossadegh was plainly in violation of the constitution to seize the powers he had and refuse to be dismissed. (The mullahs didn't like him either, so in a slightly different universe perhaps there still was an Islamic Revolution.)
The Shah was dealing with leftist and leftist-sympathies in the West, and denialism of Islamism as a risk, and he mismanaged the domestic politics situation at home. His military he lavished upon basically gave up on him.
Rapid economic growth and societal change is actually a risk factor for revolution. All those rural Iranians moving to the cities were more than a bit turned off by the vulgarity of it all. The college kids were listening to commies.
It's a tragedy that could have been avoided with either a more competent Shah, or a less insane West that was soft on leftism and Islamism.
FtSoA
1mo ago
Well, you could go read about those protests and the context in which they happened, and then make the comparison to the present one.
One notable factor is that hyperinflation wasn't crashing the economy before now.
Another notable factor is the level of violence, and the size of the protests despite that violence.
FtSoA
1mo ago
Were the Marines in Lebanon in combat?
I suppose you believe we should have stayed out of WWII as well. Should we have resisted global communism? If you're a committed isolationist then I'm not going to be able to convince you otherwise.
FtSoA
1mo ago
I have a pretty good idea of what I'm proposing since I've spent some time in the Middle East, uh, working on US foreign policy.
Russia and China will not stick their necks out for Iran. Any support would be a mere token.
You have demonstrated you'll just throw analytic spaghetti at the wall even when it makes zero sense.
I don't think you grok my point about the Venezuela operation, were it to have been done in a context of a mass popular uprising.
FtSoA
1mo ago
Why all the mass protests in America or France?
You just obviously have no idea what you're talking about when you try to directly compare protests in the US or even France to those in Iran, before now or these ones. The dynamics are totally different when it's an actual police state.
Are you aware that Iran has half our suicide rate, one eighth of our drug overdose rate, a heavily subsidized and expansive healthcare system, and one third our intentional homicide rate? Probably not. Perhaps you’ll accuse them of cooking the books.
Ah, this is the "Maduro is the true conservative" perspective. Do you know what "cherry picking" is?
They have hyperinflation ffs, among many other critical economic failures. Trying to find a few metrics where Iran might have a good stat doesn't overturn the obvious reality that it's a shithole country because it's been held back by economically illiterate leadership for nearly 50 years.
you can’t ignore that Iran being Islamic is helpful for speaking with other Islamic nations.
Ahahahahahaha. Iran has been and continues to be hated and feared by nearly all of its Sunni neighbors. You're trying to cherry pick an instance of slightly improved relations with the Saudis to defend the insane proposition that Iran's version of Shia Islam makes it easier to deal with its Sunni neighbors. Gulf Arab states have collaborated with the US and Israel against Iran.
Did you know that Iran and the Taliban have nearly gone to war a time or two?
What's next? ISIS has an easy time dealing with other Islamic states thanks to Islam?
Protestant and Catholic countries have always had better relations due to Christianity as a commonality?
FtSoA
2mo ago
So, why then are there millions of Iranians calling for regime change? This is just the latest, most serious iteration in a series of protests calling for reform.
Logically, you're making a pretty circular argument.
"The regime is legitimate because it's homegrown. Homegrown protests be damned."
"Iran is a Shia theocracy because it's made up of Shias. It's not imposed."
FtSoA
2mo ago
He was actually afraid to use it.
The West told him to treat the opposition with kid gloves and facilitated Khomeini's return.
FtSoA
2mo ago
Basically consolidation of power. Worked, too.
They executed a lot of commies and other insufficiently Islamic co-revolutionaries. Lots of the country immediately regretted taking out the Shah. That was decades ago and things only got worse.
They don't need democratic legitimacy.
Ok, so you agree then that the present regime is imposing Shia theocracy on its populace?
With most of the people they have religious legitimacy
This hasn't been true for a long time.
FtSoA
2mo ago
Why did Iraq and Iran go to war in the 80s? What changed?
Does Turkey have a history of being a rival of Israel? What changed?
Why on earth did you leave out Saudi Arabia? Were they traditionally at odds with Iran? What changed?
FtSoA
2mo ago
Are you aware of the basic facts of the aftermath of the Islamic Revolution?
Familiar with buyer's remorse?
Capable of understanding its' been nearly 50 years and the theocratic regime does not have democratic legitimacy, since it's an illiberal, sham democracy?
FtSoA
2mo ago
We engineered the Bay of Pigs and then didn't provide air support.
Presently, there are organic mass uprisings where we could provide air support. In the 1950s, we didn't have precision-guided munitions and stealth aircraft.
It's not remotely the same situation at all.
FtSoA
2mo ago
This is so obviously not true.
Israel and Iran do not have natural reasons to be rivals, let alone enemies. The Islamic regime chose for ideological reasons the foreign policy it did that frames Israel and the US as its major adversaries.
FtSoA
2mo ago
You're seriously arguing that the Iranians are happier with Shia fundamentalism imposed upon them? Bold I must say. Why all the mass protests over the years I wonder? (Including some specifically over veiling.)
Are you aware that Iran already has a famously high rate of plastic surgery?
Are you aware Iran has a famously high rate of brain drain?
Are you aware the Islamic government actually instituted policies to decrease the TFR and increase female education? (Whoops.)
Are you aware that Persians are not Arabs?
Are you aware that the extremist version of Shia Islam the Iranian Islamic regime adheres to increases conflict with basically all of its Sunni neighbors?
"Approximately" is doing a hell of a lot of work in the "approximately sane" evaluation.
FtSoA
2mo ago
I think you're comparing apples to horses with the George Floyd protests. The situation in Iran is not remotely comparable to the situation in the United States.
These protestors want a revolution, not reform. The economy is in shambles. The regime is not considered legitimate by a huge portion of the population. Large-scale violence is already happening. They do not have a Second Amendment.
The Iranian security agencies have facilities, equipment, and leaders. They could be targeted from the air with precision. Doesn't even require coordination with the opposition.
If protestors seize control of certain facilities/areas, then they can receive protection from the air such that massed military formations can't attack them with impunity. Similarly, no-fly zones disallow the regime to use aircraft to attack the opposition.
We can also air drop weaponry and supplies.
All of this is very feasible.
FtSoA
2mo ago
You can argue we didn't intervene enough.
How much better off would the world be if Jimmy Carter hadn't been a leftist simp and he'd gone all in on keeping the Shah in power in 1979, instead of the Islamists and commies?
We should have done Operation Ajax 2.0 if anything.
ISIS would like a word.
It's not just 10%. Even before the hyperinflation of late the regime was very, very unpopular.
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