FtSoA
2mo ago
I did know that, and it is a funny fact.
Though it's still radicalizing to see one's ancestral homeland devastated by communism and presumably have family and friends directly affected.
FtSoA
2mo ago
Dear god man read the news.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cg7y0579lp8o
Millions of people are in the streets.
The regime didn't turn off all telecommunications nationwide because of a few tens of thousands of people.
These protests are being described as the largest since 1979.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025%E2%80%932026_Iranian_protests
FtSoA
2mo ago
Mossadegh was not in power very long.
He was arresting political opposition and emergency powers, but I'll grant you he was not bloodthirsty. He basically was a monarchist himself, it's just he had family ties to the preceding monarchy to the Pahlavis.
Of course, under the Shah, Mossadegh was sentenced to three years in solitary confinement and then house arrest for the rest of his life.
A lot of the people the Shah arrested and executed were communists or Islamists. So I have a hard time getting worked up about that, and also it explains why the Left hates him so much.
So I have to be an apologist for the Shah against the leftist-dominated polite discourse on him being a tyrant, even though he was actually not that bad compared to either rightwing or leftwing comparisons of the day, let alone the mullahs who took over.
FtSoA
2mo ago
You do realize that the populace of Iran has been largely incapable of reading those posts because their tyrannical government has shutoff the internet, right?
The "stand with Iran" posts are for the foreigners. The Iranians already know what's going on and what the stakes are.
FtSoA
2mo ago
The regime will not be removed by air attack.
They will be removed by a mass uprising. And a mass uprising with air support is that much more effective.
Some in this thread seem to be operating from the perspective that the mass uprising is not already in place and that this is a question of "could the US simply destroy the regime from the air in short order?"
FtSoA
2mo ago
That is what the regime hopes, yeah.
The protestors are, at a minimum, holding out for promised US support. That does seem to be what Trump has done at this point.
FtSoA
2mo ago
So you just support, by default, the dynamic where the undemocratic guys with the guns can mow down the protestors?
Can you see why it's hard to take seriously that the issue is "democracy"?
I mean if you're a committed isolationist/noninterventionist, then great. I can't argue with your consistency.
FtSoA
2mo ago
Is Saudi Arabia not very rich because of oil? Is Turkey (the closest comparison to Iran) not pretty well off without oil?
Iran could have been the combination, and may yet turn out to be.
Economically, the Shah was far, far less incompetent than many of his contemporaries and definitely his successor.
His main flaw in terms of holding power was probably that he was insufficiently ruthless. For example, they let Khomeini go of to France to plot when they could have simply jailed or executed him.
You could argue "he should have been more like the Saudis" and perhaps he should have.
FtSoA
2mo ago
In Iran, we don't have a bunch of Islamists waiting to take over.
The Islamists are already in charge.
It's just a completely different country than Libya.
FtSoA
2mo ago
I appreciate that you can model the way this could work, even if you don't support it.
It's just "shock and awe" revolutionary edition. The security forces need to be scared to operate, and ideally think they'd be better off switching sides. That's true with or without air support, but air support would sure make it easier.
FtSoA
2mo ago
Yeah, the Bay of Pigs.
And Marco Rubio, Trump's Supreme Global Overlord of All Things
FtSoA
2mo ago
FtSoA
2mo ago
Some significant faction do want a constitutional monarchy.
Basically impossible to know how popular that truly is.
FtSoA
2mo ago
You're conflating "on the verge of victory" with "on the verge of starting a serious revolution."
If they were already so close to the success, then we'd just let them succeed. It's the beginning of the beginning of a revolution, not the beginning of the end.
FtSoA
2mo ago
I love that you had to specify "thousands" and "on American soil" to exempt Iran and Russia killing or facilitating the deaths of thousands of Americans other places. And confusing willingness with capability.
Here's a funny twist you might not be aware of: There were allegations before 2003 that Saddam had supported Al Qaeda. That wasn't true.
But it is true that Iran has been hosting Al Qaeda in Iran for years at this point.
For the overwhelming majority of American history, the US stayed out of Middle Eastern conflicts and miraculously during that time never had to fear the risk of conflict with Iran or Syria.
Ever heard of WWII? The Cold War? We stopped being isolationist a long time ago. The Islamic regime chose to make us an enemy.
FtSoA
2mo ago
I'm really not though.
There's a huge difference between saying "Mossad supports Iranian dissidents" and "Mossad is the reason these protests are taking off and people are willing to die."
FtSoA
2mo ago
Do you understand that it's not a valid critique to ask for something that couldn't be possible beforehand as a necessary variable?
There are numerous factions against the regime located outside Iran, Mr. Pahlavi being the most famous, and some separatist factions in Iran.
If the revolution takes off then things will get organized as they go.
FtSoA
2mo ago
North Korea is very, very different from Iran.
For one, it's next to China, its backer. For another, it's society is far, far more closed off from the rest of the world than Iranians are.
There's no history of mass protests in North Korea. In Iran, there is.
There's no history of modern living or any kind of open society at all in North Korea. There is in Iran.
FtSoA
2mo ago
Ukraine was in the middle of a civil war when Russia invaded
You continue to demonstrate you have no ability to understand reality.
You're still peddling "if we attack Iran they will really go for the bomb" AFTER the US and Israel attacked them six months ago.
You're still peddling "if we attack Iran they will get support from China/Russia" AFTER we've seen them do nothing to help Iran when it was getting pummeled six months ago.
You talk a big game about "sober analysis," but you are incapable of recognizing the use of the word "feel" in a context where I'm simply proposing you consider an alternate scenario. Instead of thinking about the posed alternate scenario--which would be inconvenient for you--you jump to a lecture on "feelings" not being a great way to analyze things.
At least the people who bring up Libya concede that air power in support of protests on the ground can be effective at toppling regimes.
FtSoA
2mo ago
Just imagine if it had ended up an oil-rich Turkey.
Also the Shah was mortally ill and had zero inclination to rule as a monarch and to raise his son to be his heir
Not sure where you're getting that. The West basically forced him to give up even before knowing about the cancer.
The population was being subjected to rapid cultural and economic change that it was unable to adapt to.
Some would say that's the issue facing the Islamic regime, but it is what is unable to adapt.
FtSoA
2mo ago
This is generally true. I think you're underestimating how much the IRGC dominates the economy, but very accurate overall.
You're missing a few key variables:
- Everyone knows the regime is defenseless against US/Israel aircraft, and that Israel believes it has unfinished business
- Everyone knows Trump has made noises about the regime killing protestors
- The rial is approaching ~0 value, as part of a general economic deterioration
- Estimates are now that 10k plus people have been killed
- The regime has said its giving the death penalty to most/all protestors it arrests
Absent external support or a preference cascade among security forces to stand down/switch sides, the regime might just simply kill its way out of this.
But if it does, it will still be weaker than it ever was before.
FtSoA
2mo ago
Well, we can be very positive Al Qaeda won't be running things in Iran.
They presently have a Shia theocracy running things. That's a major reason they're a problem.
The opposition, in contrast, wants secular democracy.
FtSoA
2mo ago
Just about everyone is doing "a lot better" than Iran, since they have hyperinflation and water shortages.
The debated point was, "How much is that a result of US sanctions vs. mismanagement?"
I was pointing out Germany was a funny example to bring up since they have managed to royally fuck up their economy the last while with unforced errors.
FtSoA
2mo ago
Why do you think in any way it's a good idea to directly compare mass protests and regime change in Iran to Russia's invasion of Ukraine?
Those are not analogous scenarios. You've essentially provided a Gish Gallop of incredibly wrong military analysis.
It's actually something of a prevalent myth that strategic bombing in WWII didn't have a major impact on the outcome of the war, but that's also not an analogous situation.
I love that you leave out "China" when discussing the Korean War.
The prior Israeli and American bombing of Iran did nothing, there was no significant military or political effect.
I don't know what evidence I could possibly provide here to change your mind, given all the available evidence you've presumably had the chance to encounter.
Bombing Iran more aggressively is the surest path to them nuclearizing.
Seriously? I thought they didn't want weapons? What are they waiting for?
Russia and China will support Iran to inflict costs on the US
Where were they last June?
If you think the regime might be collapsing and is totally unsustainable then why bomb, why should the US not just do nothing and save a lot of effort, risk and blood?
Ensuring victory of the opposition and reducing the chance of protracted conflict and bloodshed.
This recent Venezuela campaign seems to be totally incoherent.
Imagine if you will how you would feel if Venezuela had been undergoing mass, violent protests?
At least when people bring up Libya they're conceding that air power in support of on-the-ground opposition can be quite effective at regime change.
Can you think of reasons why this is not very much like the Bay of Pigs at all?
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