JTarrou
2d ago
It's just bait. Most kids aren't that enjoyable for most adults to interact with, plenty of exceptions of course. You're not supposed to say it because society has a guilt complex over how anti-natal we are. Here's the basic truth, so long as the kids are fed, clothed and housed reasonably well, not sexually or physically abused, the parents have done their job. Decent parenting isn't this crazy life-destroying thing that people make it out to be as if "tiger momming" was a good idea. You don't have to spend thirty-six hours a day enriching your kid. All that bullshit is posturing for other parents, not for the kids.
JTarrou
4d ago
There's another big one: Our military speaks spanish and doesn't speak the six thousand dialects of the middle east. Having reliable communication with the locals is a pretty big deal.
JTarrou
4d ago
Did the bombing of teh Iranian nuclear facilities start a general war? Trump has ordered a fair few military actions, but none of them so far have lead to a wider conflict. Every time he does this, or engages in some sabre-rattling diplomacy, everyone shrieks that he's starting WW3 and wasn't he supposed to be anti-war?
Well, can't know what's in Trump's head. What we can know is the track record. I oppose a general invasion of Venezuela and hope that isn't Trump's plan. As far as a night of bombing and snatching a foreign head of state? It's cool if you get away with it.
The fundamental question seems to be whether prediction markets are basically gambling or basically banking. For prediction markets to work at scale, they have to be on the gambling side. The question is whether people's innate risk-aversion leads them to treating it more like banking, which ruins the point of a prediction market in the first place.
The whole point of a prediction market is that people with inside knowledge will exploit it, thus leading to shifts in the odds line, thus leading to that insider information being communicated to all of us, anonymously through the price signal.
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