JarJarJedi
Streamlined derailments and counteridea reeducation
User ID: 1118
JarJarJedi
11d ago
The reason states don't board planes in mid-air is because it's dangerous and murder / reckless endangerment is bad.
Lukashenko essentially managed to pull this off (well, not exactly this but something very close to it): https://apnews.com/article/journalist-belarus-dissident-sentenced-4c4c0c21838f79ab98b44b97366af379 Of course, it works only once, then the planes would just route around your country, and pulling this off outside of your borders is practically impossible.
JarJarJedi
11d ago
I would like to know what makes this different than piracy, if anything.
It's a state action. Piracy is not. In fact, the main differences between a privateer and a pirate is a state authorization. The state itself, obviously, has its own authorization, and thus can not be a pirate. If you are going to engage in the argument "this can looks like a thing that is described by a word that we think is bad", I recommend https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yCWPkLi8wJvewPbEp/the-noncentral-fallacy-the-worst-argument-in-the-world
Countries commit hostile acts against each other all the time. Sanctions, blockades, embargoes, seizures, tariffs, whatever. Of course, if state A attacks state B's ships, state B could also do something else to state A. Or ask another state C to help them. Unfortunately for Venezuela, Russia is not willing to defend them, and Guyana also not a huge factor, especially as the ship doesn't even belong to them.
Economic sanctions usually mean, "I won't do business with you," can a sanction mean, "I won't let you do business with someone else, and if you do I'll seize your vessel in your waters?"
Yes, of course. That's called an embargo, or a blockade.
At what point is a sanction a war with fancier language?
At the point the other side fights back.
Will the US have boots on the ground in Venezuela in a year?
Maybe some, but not likely many. Drug trade, unlike fundamentalist islam, is a business. Having war with a strongest army in the world, supported by the biggest economy in the world, is a bad business. So there's nobody in Venezuela that could do the same things that happened in Iraq. Venezuela as a country won't be able to resist US military - if the order is given - more than a couple of days, and it only will take this long because going fast would lead to casualties - not because of enemy action per se but because shit always happens, especially when boomy things are involved. More likely scenario is Maduro evacuates to Russia and then... who knows what happens. Certainly making it less of a shithole would be a titanic task, and I am not sure Trump is either capable or interested in that. Or maybe Maduro gets over himself, kowtows to Trump and Trump declares yet another Yuge Victory. What happens to the drug trade? They will adapt and find other ways to US market, as they always do.
JarJarJedi
11d ago
I don't see the point in this rule-lawyering. They are sovereign countries. They want to take Russia's stuff because Russia is behaving badly and Russia already took their stuff. As sovereigns, they can. Of course, other sovereigns may dislike that and this may cause problems - like them in turn taking European stuff, or behaving toward Europeans in a hostile way - but Russia is already doing all of that, and nobody else is seriously threatening that on behalf of Russia. So while it is in a good taste to sign proper papers in proper places before taking stuff (to limit agent abuse, corruption, etc.) I don't see where there's an actual problem with that.
JarJarJedi
12d ago
I'm sorry but "if you didn't personally verify the wiring layout of your phone therefore all your concerns about phone software are invalid" doesn't sound like an expert-level argument. I know "expert" doesn't mean what it used to mean anymore, but this approach is ridiculous whether the person advancing it considers himself an "expert" or not.
JarJarJedi
12d ago
I think the discussion is descending into ridiculousness at this point. No, I don't know that the whole cell phone thing is not just one giant CIA mind control operation aimed at stealing my precious bodily fluids, and I don't care about it. So I don't think there's a point to continue here.
JarJarJedi
12d ago
This is a very convincing argument about physical microphone switch being completely impossible. As somebody who never designed a phone, I have to completely defer to your expertise. Except for one small thing: phones with physical microphone switches actually exist. Example: https://puri.sm/products/librem-5/ Must be using some kind of unholy black magic, because is also costs less than many of those phones where there's absolutely no way to do it, both physically and legally. As people should not associate with unholy black magic, I guess we'd have to agree this is just not possible.
JarJarJedi
14d ago
Best quote in the show.
Agreed, and I think that whole arc was the peak of the show, and explains why DS9 is so great - it deals with real meaty hairy questions, that leave you thinking about them for a long time after, and it does not shy away from the sucky parts. And I think Roddenberry would probably not let this happen - from what I saw in his work, he'd find some creative way out of this Kobayashi Maru, and all others, to let the good guys win and remain the good guys.
JarJarJedi
14d ago
In my opinion, DS9 is the best Star Trek, and it's not even close. I rewatch it regularly, and it always delivers.
JarJarJedi
14d ago
you don't trust the microphone notification because you're not able to look at your notification bar
No, I don't trust the notification because I don't see any mechanism that prevents microphone from working while not displaying the notification, those are completely different systems, and the only thing linking them is software. Which is extremely fallible. If I break the electric circuit, I'd trust the laws of physics to prevent the microphone from working.
This claim requires that Facebook et al have a backdoor that's never been detected in all these years.
Doesn't have to be Facebook, could be google feeding some data into one of a myriad of data aggregators, and ad platforms just using the end result of that.
a switch which may not do anything
That's become known pretty quickly I imagine, it's not hard to open it and verify, I opened my phones several times despite being complete ignoramus in electronics. And it's easy to prove too, so for a phone manufacturer going through all the expense of making a fake switch would be pointless, especially given as phone manufacturers aren't those who profit from ads. OTOH, phone manufacturers do not control the software, and making fallible software is cheaper than making secure one.
JarJarJedi
14d ago
Why a physical switch isn't possible? Looks like very basic thing, just interrupt the circuit.
JarJarJedi
14d ago
Nobody checks any notifications bars when your phone is in your pocket or sitting on your table. A tiny green dot is hard to miss. Also, I am not entirely convinced there's no way to turn on the microphone (hardware) without showing the green dot (software). It's be very easy to lay all these doubt to rest - make a hardware microphone mute switch, that physically (electrically) disconnects the microphone hardware. I'd trust that. Nobody does it though.
JarJarJedi
14d ago
Does this difference actually matter? 99.99% of users will click "allow" on any permission a "trusted" app (like facebook or browser) would ask them for, and would never realize any of those deep technical aspects.
JarJarJedi
14d ago
I've had a bunch of "weird" occurrences like discussing some thing with my wife that we haven't ever mentioned before and suddenly we start getting ads about this exactly subject, but I can't call it a conclusive evidence, as it could be either of us looked up something related before or during talking about it and just forgot about it. I'm pretty sure it's not too hard to make a clean experiment if one wanted to, but I am too lazy to do anything like that.
JarJarJedi
15d ago
Should I mentally prepare for president Newsom to bomb shipwrecked sailors, lead trade wars, deport illegals to foreign megaprisons, and accept fantasy prizes from corrupt sports officials
Absolutely. In fact, past Democratic presidents already bombed weddings, initiated many trade and kinetic wars, deported illegals and accepted various funky prizes. There's absolutely zero reason to assume Newsom - which has already demonstrated he is at the very best no better than an average politician - wouldn't do it, if only it would seem necessary to him. And I am sure, that when it happens, you will find for yourself and excellent explanation why this time it's completely different.
JarJarJedi
15d ago
from a card issuer's perspective, you don't want to be making money off your problem customers
If you are Home Depot, sure, that's not why you are issuing a card. If you are a fintech startup staffed by people who did exploitative extraction of financial advantages their whole career, why wouldn't you want it. Ideal Home Depot customer and ideal trashy gambling card customer are not the same person.
and then eventually either consolidate or default out of your portfolio.
Yes, the trick here is to extract more value than the difference between his debt ab initio and his debt sold to collectors is. However, I'm sure they think they can do it. And given as, again, the whole industry catering to bad-credit people exists, it's not impossible. It's not a nice business, for sure, but life finds a way.
Do you want to get a banking license? Because, if you don't want to partner with an existing bank, you need a banking license, and to get that you essentially need to buy a bank.
I haven't worked in fintech, so I don't know how, but this problem is for sure solvable - there are tons of credit cards around, and also tons of gambling outlets, including online. Somehow they find a way. You don't need all the bank license holders, you just need one.
JarJarJedi
16d ago
which is like $800 for the American Express card now
Amex gold is $325, Amex Platinum is $825. There are way more expensive ones. I regularly get mailers where they confuse me with somebody who would pay such amount of money for a card. And tbh, if I were twice as rich and led a completely different lifestyle, this kind of annual fees make sense - the value of the benefits, if bought at retail, and if I would actually use them, usually several times over the annual fee. It's just I wouldn't even need it. Though I do have a couple of $95 cards, because I do get over $100 value per year out of them. But this is completely different model - that's just prepaying stuff in bulk.
but having that because your business is lending to them is, as you say, less valuable.
Well, it's a different business, of course, but there is a whole industry built on exploiting people with bad habits and bad credit. Payday loans, subprime loans, title loans, all that crap. This is just the same business, but 2.0 with cellphones and algorithms.
JarJarJedi
16d ago
The part you are missing here is that interchange fees is not the only money maker. At least equally important, maybe more important, money are in people that over-consume credit, and pay absolutely humongous credit rates. You need to lure in those people, and abuse them to the max. Adding gambling addiction component fits very well - this is exactly the sort of people that tend to overconsume their credit in the hope of one day winning big. And unlike traditional gambling industry, which is by now pretty heavily regulated, you can put in whatever technology with whatever winning chances and algorithms optimized for maximum addictiveness, at least until the regulators catch up. That's the whole point - it's not targeted for regular "get my 2% and pay off the card each month" consumers. It's exploitative from the ground up.
because launching a credit card is an extraordinarily expensive endeavor.
That part I am not sure I understand. I mean, marketing expenses, sure. But otherwise, it's just bits in some config files somewhere in the existing systems. Why is it expensive? It's a mass industry by now, everybody has their own CC brand.
"yeah we have a credit card which is exclusively designed for gambling addicts, would you please underwrite us?"
Sure, a traditional bank probably won't want to be associated with a gambling business. But somebody runs all those gambling businesses, and they have money too. A lot of money, probably, so convincing them to invest into yet another way to exploit gamblers wouldn't be impossible.
JarJarJedi
17d ago
Combining shopping addiction with gambling addiction? That's not dumb. They don't need many people to sign up, marginal costs are near zero, and technically it's not even a casino. Or at least that's what their lawyers told them to tell the regulators. Whether or not regulators would believe that BS is entirely different business, but until they wake up, there could be some money to be made.
JarJarJedi
17d ago
Created by problem-solvers with expertise in derivative pricing, high frequency trading, and software engineering from Morgan Stanley, Hudson River Trading, Google, and Meta
If there is any group of people that I want to trust with my money and that I would absolutely believe do not want to exploit my weaknesses for financial gain, it's a bunch of people from HFT, derivative trading and Google/Meta.
JarJarJedi
18d ago
the Israeli Arabs aren't enthusiastic participants in the Zionist project.
Depending on what you mean by "Zionist project". Majority of Israeli Arabs are very happy to live in a relatively well-off Westernized country, with working courts, police, social lifts, opportunities and, not to forget, welfare. Now, they may claim they don't get a fair share of the pie (whatever that may be) and in some cases, they'd be correct (and in some other cases, it'd be their own fault). But they still are getting much better deal than many of their peers in Lebanon, Syria, Jordan or PA, to say nothing of Gaza - and they know it. Now, do they identify with the dream of Hertzl and Ben Gurion? Nah, not so much. But they are willing to work with what they've got. Of course, there are others that want Israel destroyed - but even of those most, if examined, would in fact wish something like "we'd like things to stay mostly the same, but with us in change instead of the Jews". Not many want to become Gaza or Lebanon.
I don't think many leftists actually want it. Not least because the Palestinians would lose.
That's the point. They want the war which Palestinians would not lose. And this war can only look one way. We saw that way on October 7, 2023. And the left massively confirmed, by their own volition, that this is exactly what they wanted.
JarJarJedi
18d ago
I wish... I am much-more-that-sixteen-years old, in perpetual self-doubt and have very limited free time. Sigh.
JarJarJedi
18d ago
I'm not sure how that works. If somebody drove by my house and called me anything, I'd never know - it's impossible to hear such a sound from inside the house, especially from the driving vehicle. And my house is pretty modest with a small front yard. If the Governor's house has a front yard even a little bigger, and Waltz is not spending his days standing at the edge of his property attentively listening to whatever people in cars passing by might say, this is physically impossible.
This is Governor's residence: https://mn.gov/admin/governors-residence/ - I don't think it's even possible to "drive by" it it a way that somebody inside would even notice you. I assume he also might have a personal house, as he must have lived somewhere before he became the governor? I am not sure how to find how it looks like, but he should not be there now anyway I assume?
Of course, the simplest version remains that he is lying, and not even bothering to make it sound plausible? Why bother? His tribe will believe anything he says, and the other tribe will believe nothing. No reason to spend extra effort polishing a lie.
JarJarJedi
18d ago
derives solely from their overall anti-colonialist tendency
Not solely. "Anti-colonialism" is part of it, even though the idea that Jews, who lived in that land literally before recorded history became a thing, are somehow "colonizers", and Muslims, who arrived much recently, many - more recently than Europeans arrived to Americas and Africa - are "indigenous", is supremely idiotic and counter-factual. But that has never been an obstacle for the Left. However, Israel and Jews are subject to a special type of vitriol which is not seen towards, say, Belgians or English or French or Dutch. Who actually colonized and subjugated massive amount of people and countries, and some of them continue to keep colonies (same can be said about the US, tbh, I mean Puerto Rico? Hawaii? Samoa?) - and yet you don't see Belgians demonized around the planet because of that they did to Congo. You don't see Japanese vilified because of what happened in China and Korea. I'm not calling for all that to happen - I am just observing, that Israel is definitely being singled out, and any Jew who is not actively working for the Party - and some that do - is subject to attack for it. And the conclusion is unescapable - the "anti-colonialism" is at best a convenient excuse. The reason must be deeper.
JarJarJedi
20d ago
another way I would formulate their point is "the 'trans cult' is not relevant to the average trans person
Trans cult is relevant to the society and thus to the trans person as part of that society. Yes, "internet crazies, goofy academics" etc. are not the only part of the debate - but also the "trans cult" is way bigger than a couple of crazies and some goofy professor in some obscure classroom. It's something that dictates day to day policy on the ground - and very successfully at that, I am not seeking that stuff out specifically and yet I read about various scandals related to trans issues pretty much every week. If I were a female, the question of "if I go to a locker room, will I encounter there a bearded man with his penis out looking at me undress" would be a very practical question for me now, and a question of "if I am a female athlete, is the second place the best I can hope for now, and how soon before it becomes fifth place or I get seriously hurt" is a practical one too. And none of these questions are really answered by "yes, there's such a condition as gender dysphoria".
Well, what would you expect - a cage match to first blood? Most people, if they find themselves in a common social situation with somebody whose views you may not respect, would politely smile and behave, that's the norm of the society. You could avoid going to places where you could encounter people like Chomsky (or Bannon) but if you are politically and socially active, you may end up in the same room with them and maybe even discover you have friends in common. What then?
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