JarJarJedi
Streamlined derailments and counteridea reeducation
User ID: 1118
JarJarJedi
27d ago
Some orthodoxes (many actually) serve in special units, and I imagine this can be extended. But many are also much more trouble than it's worth and the army doesn't really need many of them, so many of them could be just low-key dismissed - not in bulk, as it has been done before, but on the individual level. So I imagine it'd be the combination of the two - a bit more (or bigger) orthodox units where the facilities are set up to accept orthodoxes and for those that don't want out too badly, and those who do want out too badly, after suitable harassment to not make it too easy, they'd be let out. Some will also go to the National Service (Sherut Leumi) - the non-military service alternative - which has already accepted Haredi - primarily Haredi women, but also some men - and probably can accommodate more. What is the proportion of who goes which way depends a lot on the wishes and needs of the Army, logistics and politics. E.g. they could figure out a deal where some Yeshivas would do some services that the state needs and would in exchange be classified as part of Sherut Leumi, and so the students there would be in the same position as before, except for doing some other work for a couple of hours every day, for example - it's not the case now, but nothing in the law prevents it. Could be other solutions too. But I don't foresee either all the Army converting to Orthodox practices (both logistically near impossible and the Army just won't do it, and nobody can force them) or the Army pressing Yeshiva students into regular service without any accommodations, since nobody needs a soldier that thinks it's his duty before God to run away. There would be some kind of a deal that would leave Haredim less happy (they'd like to keep the current arrangement obviously) but still happy enough.
JarJarJedi
1mo ago
Israel wouldn't likely do anything in Lebanon unless Hezbollah does something spectacularly stupid - and they have repeatedly shown that they want to keep it low-key for now. Israel hates the low-key harassment campaign and wants to decisively put end to it - but if they choose when to start, doing it while having their forces occupied in Gaza seems pointless. However, the official "take control" part of Gaza plan seems to be coming to completion, and once that is done and it moves to the "periodic cleanups" phase, Lebanon could very well be the next step. So I'd say not yet right now, but very possibly pretty soon, unless some unexpected development happens.
JarJarJedi
1mo ago
Russia is in no shape to come in anywhere right now, they came to NK because they need all those shells NK has been stockpiling since forever, since the ones USSR has been stockpiling evidently are running out. They came to get, not to give - why would they want to mess with SK? Korea has never been in traditional Russian sphere of influence, so they'd feel zero obligation to do anything about it.
JarJarJedi
1mo ago
They may threaten, but would they ever deliver on their threat? I'd assume they hate Trump much more than they disagree with Biden, so at the end they'd do what they are supposed to do and vote Dem. They may sacrifice some low-level congressmen if needed (it's pretty low cost since Reps have the majority anyway) but the Presidency is too important. I don't deny some voters may move to the other camp, eventually, but not just for day-to-day matters. So, frankly, I don't believe the leadership is scared of those fractions. I'd rather believe they are doing what they wanted to do anyway, pretending they are scared by the fractions, to save face for everybody involved - and if they weren't going to do it anyway, they don't.
JarJarJedi
1mo ago
More zero information extremely lazy people voting? Not sure how it would solve any of the problems.
JarJarJedi
1mo ago
Republicans seem to have an easier time banding together behind a single candidate even if they have personal issues with them, whereas Democrats seem more likely to either not vote for or at least suffer significant mental anguish about making political compromises by voting for someone who even slightly diverges from their ideal platform
Is it true though? There's significant "nevertrumper" movement, for example, but I never heard about "neverbidener" or "neverclintoner" movement. I remember recent competitive Republican primaries, including Trump's first one, but I don't remember much meaningful competition on the Dem side once Obama settled the question against Clinton whose turn it is now. In fact, do we have any estimates of how many Dems really abstained from voting D because of political disagreements, rather than threatening it and then voting D anyway? Mental anguish doesn't count - it's what they do, like 90% of their platform is feeling mental anguish about one thing or another, nothing exceptional there.
JarJarJedi
1mo ago
But wouldn't Rs benefit from "vote for Freedom McSovereigncitizen but put Square A. F. Establishmentor Sr. as your second choice" somewhat too? There are some very colorful right-wing fringes too, maybe not as colorful as antifa, but still they exist.
JarJarJedi
1mo ago
How did that get started?
I don't know but I haven't seen any popular discussion of it that didn't call it that. So I'm not about to piss against the wind here...
JarJarJedi
1mo ago
they have only ran a very limited conscription scheme
They used the prisoners massively. But this resource is not infinite, and even now it's not enough - conscription already happens, just not where it can be easily seen.
Right now the Russian army has a clear upper hand in fighting and reportedly a steady stream of volunteers. Meanwhile an incredibly disquieting amount of press gang/abduction style of conscription videos are coming out of Ukraine.
That's what happens when you match a totalitarian country with a non-totalitarian one. On one side, you only see what the regime wants you to see, on the other side, you see what people are really worried about. So, Russia turns out to be the victorious superpower with people itching to join the glorious Red Army while Ukraine seems to be a collapsing mess which nobody wants to defend. Just as in 1930s you could hear all about how USSR economy is steadily advancing towards communism while Western economy is utterly collapsing. And nobody would talk about what's actually happening in the USSR at that time.
there won’t be ever real conscription for this war in Russia.
"real" is doing a lot of work here. Of course Russia powers would do the most to make it not "real" for as long as possible - so far, they use marginal populations - prisoners, people from far regions who nobody has heard about, etc. - how many could point on the map where Buryatia is? They have 100x loss rate from the war compared to Moscow. Nobody cares, because nobody would care if every single adult age male there disappeared at all - except, I presume, Buryats themselves, but who'd even ask them. There are many such regions. The places like Moscow and SPb are affected much less, so it's not "real" - and won't be "real" for a while yet, because they have a lot of resources to feed from.
JarJarJedi
1mo ago
Something I recently noticed - increased push to implement ranked choice voting everywhere. What is more strange, it always seems to be Dems promoting it and Republicans opposing it. My question is - why? First of all, why push it now, and second, why the partisan divide? I mean, if it, say, gave advantage to the minority party, then you'd expect minority Rs push it too somewhere. But it's not what I am seeing.
JarJarJedi
2mo ago
The attacker was able to get a lot of trust so quickly because significant part of modern digital infrastructure depended on a library no one cared about.
I think "depended" here, while true in certain technical sense (as "being on the list of libraries the code is compiled with") in broader sense it is actually the main reason that enabled this failure. There's no technological reason for per se for SSH to use "xz", as far as I can see, it was merely added to make it work with another component. And while SSH, being sensitive component and a primary gateway to most systems, is scrutinized thoroughly, the dependencies may be softer. There's also no good technological reason why systemd needs xz and why it doesn't do whatever it needs to do with xz in a separate component isolated from the component that is needed for interacting with SSH. This is just lack of foresight, laziness and preferring convenience to security. I am not saying it is some outstanding failure - I probably have done decisions like that numerous times, knowingly or unknowingly, over the years of my own career. This particular one led to a very significant breach, and if people were more austere and security-minded in their designs, this likely wouldn't happen - but most people aren't. But I feel like the picture at xkcd, while being both hilarious and true, is not reflecting this particular case entirely accurately - neither systemd not SSH weren't destined to fail that way by any good technical reason, and probably nothing would happen to them - except for tiny amount of inconvenience for a tiny number of people - if these dependencies were removed.
JarJarJedi
2mo ago
I told exactly nothing about my preferred strategy, so you should not feel bad about not getting anything right about it. The reason I didn't is because I don't need it already, and hadn't needed for a long time, and the only person it is useful for is me. So telling about it is kinda useless, except for bragging - but I even have nothing to brag about, I just got lucky once. Best I could do is some very generic pointers that may help somebody else who is like me in many aspects to find where to look for their strategy. Yes, I know it's disappointing - the 1-2-3-4 guaranteed works advice looks much better and inspires much more confidence. It's just that over my lifetime, I've had such advice, and I've had to deal with the consequences of it failing, and it's not pleasant. If I can make somebody's potential landing softer - my work is done. If your plan works and I end up looking stupid - no problem, I'' be fine with that too.
JarJarJedi
2mo ago
This. Isn't. Talking. To. People.
For you, it isn't. For some others, it is. And that's why I found it necessary to add to your advice - because from what you said it seems to me that you do not understand how people that are very different from you work, and seem to view the way they work as some ridiculous performance bordering on stupidity.
OP is literally asking for ways to get better at dating
True. But sometimes the best way to the goal is not rushing at that direction headlong, but instead walk some roads not taken. Lifting weights is not dating. Expanding your horizons is not dating. Both may - not guaranteed, but may - lead to better dating.
What was the first thing for which you used your face hole to send sonic vibrations to her?
Not telling you that. It's a funny story, but embarrassing enough for me that I won't tell it in public. Fortunately, my (future at that point) wife shares my weird sense of humor and she found what happened hilarious, and it kinda warmed her up to me more (and she knew, from prior communication, that I am not actually a doofus I made myself look as at the moment). Could've gone other way, you never know.
All good self-improvement advice is a variant of "you're going to have to do things that aren't comfortable, but then things will improve for you."
Very broadly, this is true. However, thing being uncomfortable doesn't mean a) you can actually do it and b) it will effectively lead to the goal. For somebody like me, it probably wouldn't. Heck, I even started lifting weights only after I got married. I guess my point here is it's not easy, but it's possible if you persist and don't give up if one way doesn't work but try another instead.
I will await your reply wherein you tell me "Well it must've worked! - I'm married!"
No, that was pure luck in my opinion. Or God's providence, if you're inclined that way.
JarJarJedi
2mo ago
It's hard to give "best" explanations without knowing the facts. Like, do any those people actually want to murder John? Have they tried to do it already, or have he been accidentally CCed on an email with the subject "Re: Plan to murder John, Phase 2" saying "so far everything proceeding as planned, keep doing as discussed in the last meeting, we're close"? In that universe, is it common for people getting murdered by coworkers? Does John know anybody who has been murdered by coworkers, and did it happen because the coworkers were too annoyed by that person heating up a smelly fish in the microwave and incessantly complaining about work schedules and parking spaces? Is John a diagnosed schizophrenic? Does he have some other condition that could influence their cognition or decision making? Is John a sociopath and does accusation of murder bring him some benefits he otherwise can not attain? Too many variables.
That depends a lot of what you mean by "said". We communicated online for quite a while before we met physically, and even longer before we decided that we belong together. Of course, it was the time before Twitter, when people actually had conversations online :)
I am not implying the advice is given with bad intent - just that one must be careful that it may not apply to everyone, and if it doesn't work for somebody, it doesn't mean they are even more of a loser than they thought - but that there are other ways that would be better for them. Like, for example, find communities online where once could practice talking with various people. Maybe even with people of female persuasion without trying to score with them ;) It doesn't mean never talking to meatspace people - just maybe not jump right into that if that's not what you're comfortable doing.
JarJarJedi
2mo ago
If it's about money, how about staying in the house and getting housemates? (I assume the house if big enough for that - I don't know DFW market but $380k sounds like it should buy some decent space?) Once you marry and ready to start that adventure in a new house, you can sell this one, or keep renting it out - by then you'd know if it works for you.
JarJarJedi
2mo ago
There's an obvious flaw in this model. If all you need is a shag, why pay the middle-man? If what you need is long-term, how do you expect to sustain it once Cyrano is out of the picture? Of course, if you're just bad at passing the initial nutcase filters, it could help, but the prerequisite would still be to be able to survive the first date in person.
JarJarJedi
2mo ago
Start by making short observations at checkout lines.
I am an introvert. Note, I am happily married and do not need any dating advice, but this one sounds to be a bit like: "want to get strong? It's easy - start with bench pressing 300lbs and then do it every other day for 6 months and you'd be golden". I'm sure for some people that sounds like a reasonable advice, to me it looks so remote from my world and my character as a proposal to take a nice quick walk to the moon. I suspect it'd sound the same to many other introverts. My problem with it is not that it might not work - some people do bench 300lbs, so it might work for them - but that you make it sound like it's trivial for every normal person to do it, so when a person for whom it is not trivial reads this, they would only think it's because they are some kind of special extra-hard strength loser that go below even normal definition of loser. And that's just not the case.
JarJarJedi
2mo ago
Since as it seems virtually nobody cares for both Russians' privatized victory day and their shenanigans on that day - at least the mentions of it in Western press seem to be rather scarce - then paying attention to whether or not they successfully performed those shenanigans would also be counter-productive. In this particular matter, ignoring them seems to be the best course of action. Of course, declaring the new large weapons shipment to Ukraine would be a better reaction, but that seems to be beyond hope now.
JarJarJedi
2mo ago
Clearly the buyer's agent wants to steer the buyer to a more expensive property
It's not clear at all. The buyer, if they have any sense at all, would already know the state of the market and how much, in broad terms, houses they look for cost. Not precisely, but in certain boundaries. Sure, the agent could show them houses that are a little cheaper and a little more expensive, but the marginal gain would be in hundreds of dollars, while the price of the whole deal is for them in tens of thousands. So the incentive of the agent is to make a deal. It is true that it's not always correct incentive for the buyer (since the agent focused on making a deal first may push for the buyer to compromise on things they wouldn't otherwise compromise) but it much, much better for the agent to get a deal at a slightly lower price than to lose a deal at higher price. So the buyer agent would steer you enthusiastically to any property they think you could potentially buy, but the marginal incentive of showing you only the expensive ones - unless you are so rich the price is obviously not an issue at all for you - would be quite small.
I've been shopping for houses in the US a number of times, both successfully and unsuccessfully, and I didn't notice a lot of drive to only go for top expensive properties. Of course, price is correlated with quality and desirability, so the agent won't show me a half-ruined cheap house while they could show me a pristine new one for slightly more, but I did not notice the overt push that often. There are a lot of agents that understand the above, and if a particular one prefers to lose tens of thousands to gain hundreds, then you get a smarter agent instead.
It'd be hard to fix the incentives completely, since а fixed-price agent would be as interested in getting to the deal as quick as possible. I guess one should get an agent that would be able to keep themselves in check and work for the client.
JarJarJedi
5mo ago
Not really, it just needs to have the same set of vulnerabilities as legitimate governments, or at least a sizeable subset of them.
JarJarJedi
6mo ago
I don't think there will be something that looks like full-blown war, because there doesn't seem to be any western targets there for Houthis to strike beyond ships, and the US wouldn't go into a full scale invasion there, especially not in an election year. Some bombings would be enough to show Biden still has some cojones left, and I don't think it would go beyond that. More likely, there would be a repeat loop of what is already happening - Houthis attack some ships, the West does a dozen of warnings, then bombs something, rinse, repeat.
JarJarJedi
6mo ago
That is an obvious lie, Israel spent a lot of effort, lives and diplomacy to implement a separation solution. There would be absolutely no reason to do all that - from Oslo agreement to Gaza evacuation to creating Palestinian Authority to other measures - if Israel indeed wanted to eliminate Palestinian presence. All these measures - which constitute Israeli policies for three decades now - are completely contrary to that goal. You basically ignoring everything that actually happened in service of your insane hatred.
Israel is a genocidal project by definition
The definition of Israel is a state of Jewish people. There's absolutely nothing "genocidal" in it, you lie again.
JarJarJedi
6mo ago
Israel isn't going full auschwitz solely
That's a libelous statement by itself - Israel is not going not only "full auschwitz", but neither 1% or 0.001% of it. There are no camps designed for massacring any Arab population, there are no official program of eliminating Arab population, there is nothing of the sort. There is a war, truly, and a war among dense built area where the other side doesn't bother with conventional things like uniforms or military identification (a war crime by itself, but Hamas is committing every war crime in a book, none excluded, so of course they do this too) and using schools, mosques and hospitals as military outposts - of course it will bring some casualities, and given that, as I mentioned, the only figures are coming from Hamas, and they don't bother with formalities, everybody except senior leaders which are officially known as Hamas are called "civilians". Hamas membership is not exclusive - it's like being a communist. You can be a doctor and a communist, a journalist and a communist, a truck driver and a communist. Only with Hamas, you can be a doctor in the morning and keep Israeli hostages in the evening. You can be a "journalist" in the morning and a drone operator in the afternoon. You can be a farmer and one of you farms would host rocket launchers shelling Ashdod and Tel-Aviv. That's all "civilian" population and that's what the IDF is dealing with now.
Any honest assessment of sympathy for goy/Palestinian civilian life in the greater Jewish/Israeli public results in basically nothing.
If by "honest" you mean "completely false and libelous". Nothing can be further from the truth - a lot of people in Israeli society are bothered with Palestinians, and presenting Jews as some kind of genetics-obsessed community that treats everybody with wrong genes below animals (there's an active animal rights community in Israel too) is an utter bullshit. The level of blood libel bullshit. You obviously know absolutely nothing about Israeli society and what the dominating opinions there are. Yes, Israel population supports war with Hamas. No, nobody in Israel talks in the terms you are implying.
That said, if we call the Armenian Genocide a genocide I don't see what is so different about Gaza.
Everything. Armenians did not attack Turks and did not gruesomely rape and murder thousands of them, Hamas did. Turks did put as their goal destroying Armenian population, Israel does not. Pretty much every aspect of what is happening in Gaza, bar none, is different.
But even with Jewish subversion of the American government
Oh, you are one of those people....Basically, everything you ascribe to the evil Jews, you'd see in a mirror - it's you who are obsessed with racist genetics and view everything through the lens of the ethnic conflict. And of course, you are possessed with irrational, but flaming hate of Jews. I am sorry I just noticed it now. I am done spending time on you.
Yes, there are. Depending on how bad the person wants out, there are several ways one can avoid being conscripted (or get out if you're already in), though it usually costs certain opportunities and carries certain stigma. Just as in the US it was possible to dodge the draft at certain costs, it is in Israel too, though not too many people do it. The army does not make it easy, but it definitely makes it possible, and sometimes even refuses to accept certain categories of people (Arabs, criminals, drug addicts, people deemed "political extremists", etc.). The question of drafting the Orthodox exists not because the army has a critical lack of manpower, but because of the political implications of the wide segment of people visibly taking money from the state but not contributing back by being part of the military service. Once this setup - which is a source of frustration for many political movements in Israel - is gone, nobody is going to watch over every single Yeshiva student to ensure what happens to them, so I am sure some solution will be found that is workable both for the Army and for the Orthodox leadership.
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