JarJarJedi
Streamlined derailments and counteridea reeducation
User ID: 1118
JarJarJedi
2d ago
An exercise company named "Sore Necks"? Hmmm....
JarJarJedi
3d ago
I think you are right. I am going to Reddit exclusively for a handful of niche communities - and those could have existed on any platform. But they exist on Reddit because it's the default place, so I have to go to Reddit to read them. I'd happily not go there because the rest of Reddit is a toxic dump, but I have no choice.
JarJarJedi
4d ago
the ones that have disgust-forward personalities and conventional morality (we're talking Kohlberg 3/4s)- to throw out the survey.
That's the big difference, right here. Cults can be very selective. They only need 0.01% to join to survive (in fact, much less - in a nation of hundreds of millions, typical cult size is probably dozens). Totalitarian regimes can't thrive on 0.01% success. That's why crimestop is the technique that works on 99% of people - because it's designed for mass control. Cult filters, on the other hand, are completely fine with rejecting 99% of people - as long as the remaining 1% is a good match.
JarJarJedi
4d ago
As I understand, if you get it from inhaling vapors from a broken vial, it'd be 100% pneumonic. One gets the bubonic one via an infected insect bite, and the way of ingress defines how it goes - if it's the bite, it goes to the closest lymph node, settles there and you have a bubo. If it's inhaled, it settles in the lungs, thus pneumonic. You don't need to modify anything between one and the other, it's just how it got in that matters.
JarJarJedi
4d ago
The best guess is a common, regular, run of the mill Russian fuckup. A low-paid under-trained lab worker, in a lab neglecting basic safety protocols because nobody's got time for that elaborate shit, breaks a vial with live pathogen. Not wanting to get chewed up by the superiors, cause trouble, and maybe get docked some pay for causing trouble, she never reports it. When she feels bad, she goes to the regular local hospital. In the hospital, nobody has any idea about who she is and why she's there, so she is treated as anybody who'd show up with respiratory symptoms in the beginning of the flu season. Except it doesn't go like flu at all, instead she dies quickly and horribly. People start checking and find out where she'd been working. Major "oh fuck oh fuck oh fuck" flags start going up, and people start bouncing it up the chain of command, which automatically engages "lie, deny and hide" strategy, but it's obviously too big to be handled like that now. So the real containment protocols - which existed in Russia since the Tsar's times, it's not their first rodeo by far - start activating, and that's where everybody learns about it.
The plague control labs have existed in Russia since forever, and not only for plague, for other diseases too. Those labs deal with monitoring, defending against, etc. various pathogens occurring naturally, including the plague. There were also weaponization efforts, including in Russia, but as far as it is known, Irkutsk lab hasn't been any part of that system. Of course, there's always possibility of something that we don't know coming up, but so far the best guess is the lab fuckup, followed by multiple chained safety protocol fuckups.
JarJarJedi
4d ago
I disagree. Crimestop is designed to prevent a rational consideration of undesirable matter - because considering it may lead a person to conclusions or thought patterns that are disapproved by the Party. However, the cow question, if pondered seriously, would most likely lead people to become disgusted and more entrenched in the value of their current culture - "we normies have our faults, but at least obsessing with questions like that isn't one of them". It's not a slippery slope, rather it's the opposite of it - the more you try to go there, the more all of your instincts scream at you to turn back. Except, of course, for the rare few that are really into it. Crimestop is not designed to guard against a rare few freaks - it is designed to control the masses. This question is designed to filter for certain kind of freaks.
JarJarJedi
4d ago
If the experience with gun control or drug control teaches us something, it's how hard is to prevent people from doing something they want to do. And how much control does it require to have even a limited degree of success in it. Imagine a world where only ISIS and the Sinaloa cartel has the true AI... And the CIA/NSA of course but we don't talk about it. OTOH the regular citizens ae required to have government monitoring software on any device smarter than a thermostat.
JarJarJedi
4d ago
Is anyone arguing for "give Eliezer and Scott full exclusive access to prompting the first ASI instead of Sam or Dario"?
It's not personally Scott and Eliezer. It's the Oversight Committee (there's always a committee). But who do you think will influence forming the committee and who do you think the members of the committee would look for guidance when faced with tough decisions? Wouldn't it be the folks that convinced the government that the committee is needed in the first place? Or at least folks aligned with them?
but he is not in the position to do that and will never be.
He personally may be not. But some more savvy, slick and energetic politician taking cues from him might be. Marx or Gramsci did not personally take power.
Eliezer is not a critical stakeholder with whom one needs to coordinate.
If Eliezer does not matter, then it doesn't matter who says what about him. I am fine with this outcome, where whatever he says and does is immaterial and he has no influence on the outcome of things. I am afraid however it's not entirely the case, as a lot of people who are very knowledgeable in the industry and are at least adjacent to its control levers are significantly influenced by him (either personally or by the ideology he embodies). Maybe I am worrying for nothing, I'd be happy with that outcome too.
JarJarJedi
4d ago
Are they paranoid about China or is their only problem with China that they think they can control the US government easier than they can control the CCP? Imagine if CCP told them "you know what, we decided you are right and we're pausing our AI research, but we are kind of concerned the US would gain unfair advantage. So we need you to, you know, sabotage US a little - not a lot, just to maintain parity, nobody is going to get hurt and everybody wins!" Would they take the deal? I know a lot of their ideological predecessors took the similar deal with the USSR and the nukes...
JarJarJedi
5d ago
You have DoW directly saying that EA and all that it stands for is anti-American
Are they wrong? I mean, I don't know if there's a pure-rational EA-based case for patriotism and American exceptionalism, but I certainly didn't notice a lot of people in EA circles looking for one and trying to build one up. I suspect if somebody seriously and earnestly did so, they'd be expelled from a lot of EA spaces. I mean, I understand there could be a very different view about what "American" is about, but if we talk about what a middle ground conservative working for DoW understands about it, how much the EA movement is his friend and how much it is his enemy? I am not asking who is right and wrong between them, but if we stand on the position of DoW, what would be the correct evaluation of EA from their side?
JarJarJedi
5d ago
While Scott is a blogger that writes thoughtful and occasionally entertaining blog posts, I certainly couldn't care less about where he stands in relationship to donkeys, NASCAR or juvenile justice, unless he chooses do discuss one of these topics on the blog. HOWEVER, if he comes forward as a part of a movement that claims them - or people selected by them, or people selected by the process influenced by them - need to receive extraordinary powers which will possibly control the destiny of humanity for millennia forward - and while I don't know if it's true or not, they certainly claim it is true - I think I am entitled to apply strict scrutiny here. Weird deviant blogger is not a threat to me, and I am fine with having dozens of them around without feeling the least bit unsafe. Weird deviant cult vying for absolute control over one of the most important technologies in the history of humanity - hey, that's maybe not what I am fine with. And if they proclaim they can align the AI, maybe it's time for me to ask - align AI with what exactly, and do I really want the AI to be aligned with that?
JarJarJedi
5d ago
And it wasn't a particularly good job either, according to the experts: https://futurism.com/artificial-intelligence/real-monet-ai-chaos
JarJarJedi
5d ago
Twelve Caesars by Mary Bird. Contrary to my initial expectations, this is not the book about Roman History per se (though it features as a background) and not about the famous work by Suetonius (though it is present on the background too) but about the "Twelve Caesars" as a cultural meme and in general, about how Romans (mainly prominent, high-born Romans, of course, nobody cared about others) have been depicted in European art and culture over the centuries, and which part of this is supported by actual verifiable historical facts (spoiler: less than we'd like to). It turned out more interesting than I would expect from this description, I do not regret spending time with it.
JarJarJedi
5d ago
I think https://ai-2027.com/slowdown#slowdown-2028-03-31 might be that pitch. It pretty much openly promises Vance the crown if he joins the movement. The real power will belong to the Oversight Committee, of course, but he can have whatever is left of the remainder of the earthly power, after all, somebody needs to keep the lights on.
JarJarJedi
5d ago
"How do we make sure people are taking us seriously and do not just think we're a bunch of deluded nutcase hippies?" - "Oh, I know! Let us compare ourselves to Jesus! I mean, literally! Let us seriously claim we are the modern day Jesus and if you ever been Christian you must do what we say!".
JarJarJedi
8d ago
Yeah, he's now in the hands of UAE security, so "extremely painful" will likely describe his experience for a while.
JarJarJedi
8d ago
He was certainly a very valued technical specialist (just as Von Braun or Heisenberg or Porsche were), but that was all he was, he didn't have any "hand" in higher (or, deeper) circles. I am not saying this to somehow praise or excuse him, but rather to emphasize it's quite a common phenomenon - there were a number of highly capable specialists working for that horrible regime, and when that regime had been destroyed, they continued to be valued.
JarJarJedi
8d ago
Hitler's former right hand man
That's really swinging it far. Skorzeny was a warrior who happened to be German (well technically Austrian but you know...), so he ended up fighting on the wrong side, but he wasn't anywhere in the top Nazi hierarchy and as far as I could see, played zero role in setting any plans or policies or ideology. So "right hand man" is not a very proper description. He AFAIK also wasn't implicated in any atrocities or "final solution" type programs, so the decision to employ him is no stranger than the decision to use, e.g., Von Braun. There are moral questions with both, for sure, but neither are "Hitler's former right hand men".
JarJarJedi
11d ago
It appears clear to me that the insurance market to handle AI product liability claim will emerge very fast. Just as other methods ensuring such liability will be limited to "reasonable" sizes - either by contract, or by lobbying, or by corporate lawyering (aka "don't sue me, sue this cardboard cutout that legally is responsible for everything") so the industry will find ways to deal with it. Also: If real genuine honest FSD ever appears, I think it will drop the accident volume very significantly, because most of the accidents are caused by people being distracted, tired, drunk, stoned, or plain stupid. If we can replace Joe who just wants to get home from the pub and is absolutely sober of course after only a mere sixpack of beer, and Joan who can perfectly drive, check her email, converse on facebook and film her latest tiktok, thankyouverymuch, with robot driver that has the danger level even of an average attentive driver, the rest of the accidents - caused by mechanical failures, road malfunctions, severe weather events, etc. - I think would be quite manageable. FSD doesn't even really need to be perfect - there just needs to be enough FSD vehicles around so that the likelihood of somebody behaving in a stupid way and requiring everybody else to be perfect is low. All current stats include drunkards and idiots. How would they look without them?
JarJarJedi
11d ago
I drove a hybrid, many times (which made little difference), but I don't think I've driven an EV. Probably need to figure out a way to practice on one in a safe environment, just in case...
JarJarJedi
11d ago
I hate paying $100/m for pretty much anything. If it's not consumable/renewable (like water, food, power) I'd rather buy it upfront. I know how much money I have now, so I can figure out if I can afford it, but the future is always risky.
JarJarJedi
11d ago
Waymos are totally awesome, I always use them in cities which have them. All the convenience of Uber without some annoying guy trying to chat with you. It's a bit pricey but so far I can afford it, fortunately, and sometimes wait times are a bit long in busy places, so not ideal but quite good.
JarJarJedi
11d ago
Speaking of Teslas: I've probably not going to buy a Tesla anytime soon, but I've been offered Teslas by rental shops several times and I've so far declined, because driving an unfamiliar car in unfamiliar environment is kinda risky. So I wonder what's the experience of people that did drive it - is there any adjustment from driving a regular car that is needed? Can I just start it up and freakin drive or do I need some adjustments? How easy/hard is to get a hang of it from 0 experience?
Also, if I try it as a rental, what about range anxiety? I sometimes need to drive up to ~100 miles or more in such situations, of course mostly through urban-suburban landscape so there's always a gas station within 5-10 mins drive, but I have no idea about changing a Tesla. I remember some years ago I was out on a trip with friends, and the guy responsible for transport picked an EV (not Tesla, don't remember which one) and it turned out a minor annoyance to change it because a lot of nearby chargers had some kinds of "guests only" or "clients only" policies. I wonder what's the score on that now.
JarJarJedi
11d ago
Started a long-run re-read (or, rather, re-listen, as I am using audiobooks for that) of Nero Wolfe series. I've read many of them (some in originals, more in Russian translations) years ago, and decided to go back. So far I got through: Fer-de-Lance, The Rubber Band and The Red Box. Skipped The League of Frightened Men for now as the audiobook wasn't available, plan to fill up later. There's a lot of them spanning 40 years of Stout's lifetime, so I expect it to take quite a while to go through all of them (and of course I'll be taking breaks for other books) but so far the first three had been fun. It's a bit slower paced than our twitter age made us used to, but that's fine. I'll probably also pick up the next Dresden book sometime next month, but Ghost Story was kind of intense (in a good sense) and I don't want to ruin the impression by getting through too much too soon, so I'll let it sit down for a bit yet.
Nah don't think so. US moved to the early Roman model, where the office holder, while they can have massive powers, only hold these powers while required by some substantial need, and surrender them at once when the need passes. Of course, it doesn't exactly work this way (neither did it for Romans) but at least that's the general idea. The alternative is that some random asshole, having beaten another random asshole by 17 votes, suddenly is some special semi-divine entity floating in the sky above well beyond mere mortal's reach. That's such bullshit. At least in Middle Ages there were real differences - the nobles were better clothed, better armed, better fed, better educated, usually healthier, often smarter, etc. so there was at least some basis to treating them differently. Obviously, that didn't always held but at least there was some logic in it. Now everybody is basically the same, not getting into the weeds of HBD, nobody has any claim on being better than anybody else. So what's the point?
I can understand blinging up the Head of State - we need to show those foreigners how rich and powerful we are, so they would respect us. But the mayor? Who cares about the mayor? Their task is to make sure the garbage is getting taken out and the buses run on schedule. Don't get me wrong, it's an important task, deserving of respect - but as a job, not as some kind of divine mandate.
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