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JarJarJedi


				

				

				
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joined 2022 September 10 21:39:37 UTC

Streamlined derailments and counteridea reeducation


				

User ID: 1118

JarJarJedi


				
				
				

				
2 followers   follows 1 user   joined 2022 September 10 21:39:37 UTC

					

Streamlined derailments and counteridea reeducation


					

User ID: 1118

The US has historically led a coalition of developed nations that was fairly biased towards US interests

Historically, yes. But is it still the case? Europe is increasingly being taken over by the green-red alliance, and it's not entirely clear why the US should keep financing Europe's security while Europe is rebuilding itself as a woke socialist caliphate. It'd be nice to get the old, Western-civilization-aligned Europe back, but the US can not enact this change. Only Europeans can. And they do not seem to be able or willing to.

I am not a huge fan of Trump's "bull in a china shop" diplomatic style, and it does not seem to be practically effective that much - at least, I am not seeing a huge improvement in the terms of improving US standing and achieving US goals by diplomatic means. His only major success so far that I can identify is freeing the Israeli hostages from Hamas (which is extremely close to my heart personally but I suspect is not super high on the US priority scale) and some advancement on the Abraham accords (even though it is compensated for by increasing radicalization of Turkey). Beyond that, I can hardly name any diplomatic win attributable to him. Stuff like getting rid of Maduro sound a big win to me (at least so far) but there was not a lot of diplomacy involved there.

But while I am skeptical about his methods, I recognize that his approach of trying to get more favorable arrangements makes sense. If EU or Canada put tariffs on US goods, why the US should be fine with it? I think it makes sense to act towards achieving more friendly arrangements. The problem is it seems like Trump is very good in getting into the fight, but less good in figuring out how to end the fight in a way that achieves the goals that the entire fight was about.

undermining US hegemony in a bid for marginal revisions in an already highly favorable status quo is a questionable strategy

Unfortunately, the hegemony is coming into question whether we want it or not, for the reasons I named above. When the fundamental values of the countries are misaligned, the alliance can be maintained either by the US spending huge piles of money - pecunia non olet - or by US aligning more with the woke green-red alliance. The Left has no problem with either part of this, but the Right does. So the realignment is inevitable as long as the US does not succumb to the same alliance. The question is what form that realignment would take.

यः धर्मम् परित्यज्य श्रिसुखम्हितेच्छय स दुःखं गच्छेत् न संशयः अष्तबहुभर्तामुढयथा

Google Translate produces:

He who abandons righteousness and desires the welfare of prosperity and happiness will undoubtedly go to suffering, as you have married eight many husbands

Which kinda sorta in the same direction, but hilariously inaccurate and converting Octopodes to "marrying eight husbands" takes it into yet another hilarious realm.

I don't think it's accurate to say central bank policies have no effect. I've heard a lot of talk about zero-interest-rate phenomena and its influence on the tech market scene, for example, and I think that has a lot of basis under it. If you give people access to infinite money with the condition on "give it back some time later, maybe" it will have an influence on the economy, how could it not? I do not deny government spending and taxation has its effects too - I mean, we're talking trillions here, how could it not, and I think nobody would ever deny taxation directly influences economic behavior, and so does subsidizing.

That said, I think the idea that the Fed is only interested in pegging inflation to 2% and nothing else matters is naive at best. The Fed is seen as the steward of the economy as a whole, whatever is meant by that - I am sure they have enough charts for everybody - and the government would reach out to them (either quietly or flamboyantly, in Trump's case) if they want some economic policy to happen. I think that has been the case for a long time, one can call it by whatever term they want, but the government and the Fed have some ideas how the economy should look like, and they use all their tools to achieve it, and the inflation is only one measure among many.

I feel Russia got a bit tamer since 1990s with Alan Chumak, Kashpirovsky, and so on. At least now it's more mainstream, cross-cultural superstitions, not something on the verge (and sometimes over it) of mass hysteria.

Something needs to fill that God-shaped hole.

Race is one of the most important aspects of one's character, according to the Left, and it is unchangeable, just ask Nkechi Amare Diallo. The logic is as much the subject to the ideology as anything else on the Left. That's how doublethink works.

Believing and defending unpopular things

But not really unpopular things, just low-risk things. You don't get fired from your job for talking about capricorns - though you could be if you talk about mass immigration in a wrong way.

I don't mind if the writer uses AI as much as they want in the research. But if they just work as a meat proxy between LLM and myself, then the added value is close to zero. I can talk to an LLM directly when I want to. If I pay for something - and increasingly, that includes paying attention - I want to have added value that is not available in LLM prompts. If somebody does not want or is not capable of providing it, surely I am not going to pay for it.

I would probably buy (as in, subscribe to) a non-shitty magazine about any of my interest areas, given a reasonable cost. Having something to read on the can is great. I am only partly joking here - since I spend most of my waking working hours behind the screen, a change of scenery when I am resting really feels nice to me. It's not about efficiency now but about the feel. However, I would not pay for a crap magazine that has 60% ads, 30% AI slop and the rest maybe interesting to me once in a blue moon. It must be consistently good. I don't know whether there are enough people like me to sustain a publication - maybe not. But I personally would.

Looks like you are right, while Dewey has been compared to Hitler all the time, with Eisenhower it was more like "he is a great man but since he's a Republican, he's still a captive of the right wing, who as we all know are literally you know who, so..." But yes, Eisenhower is an exception, but both before and after him everybody has been.

I mean, if there's no party they could ally with that would allow them to do anything meaningful - which seems to be the case right now - then what's the point of forming a coalition which would continue more of the same and prove AfD is as incapable of delivering on their promises as everybody else? At least staying outside allows them not to accept responsibility for the shit that's happening, once they are nominally in power, the responsibility is theirs, and will be used against them next time when nothing changes.

Spain may well have a right-populist government in the near future

We'll see. It doesn't yet. If that happens, I'll be happy, the current state of Spain is extremely sad.

It is fascinating how various "skeptics" immediately lose all skepticism and start taking everything at face value when the source is IRGC, Bin Laden, Al Qaeda, Putin, Xi or some other source with equally excellent record. Yes, US government lies, but other governments lie too, and usually at least as much. Any other source for severe damage to USS Lincoln besides IRGC evidence-free claims?

As I understand, AfD is the only non-woke, non-pro-civilizational-destruction party in Germany, and the only one with chances of winning something in Western Europe in general. Which of course makes them literally Hitler, as anything that threatens woke powers is. Every single Republican candidate has been literally Hitler since literally Hitler, and every non-woke European party will get the same treatment. Especially one that has any chances of winning any votes. This is just how it works.

That said, it's only one state, and they didn't even get the majority - they are the largest party, but only 39 out of 83 seats. I am not sure what could they do with such setup - likely, a lot of heat but not sure anything could change. Most of Germany's problem will need federal policy change, as I understand, and a plurality in one state does nothing.

Oh, I know what Nvidia's moat is, that's not in question. HF though seems to not have much. I mean, I am sure Nvidia guys have good case for it, but I doubt it gives Nvidia a lot of control over AI ecosystem. Anytime any major player would feel restrained by whatever HF is doing, they can implement a clone very easily. And most software would trivially adapt (as easy as changing an URL prefix, likely).

I did the numbers in CA a while ago, and with electricity there being very expensive and progressively more expensive as you consume more, with decent financing arrangement it made total sense. In other places where the electricity is significantly cheaper financially it probably makes much less sense, though there's the self-reliance aspect for some people too. It all hinges on electricity prices (especially pricing structure - does it get more expensive?) and what you can do with excess power - would the utility buy it? How much they'd pay for it? It all needs to be carefully calculated, solar is not at the place where it makes sense everywhere for everybody, but in some circumstances it does.

That said, what's the moat for HF, at least in this usage? I mean, if Amazon or Google (or even any other second-tier provider) wanted to compete with them on model storage, what would be the obstacles they'd need to overcome? Storage and delivery of massive byte arrays - even at a very large scale - seems like a problem that a lot of companies can successfully solve. There's an incumbent advantage, but it can be overcome relatively quick.

Now that you said it that sounds like the best possible explanation. I was wondering about that too and I haven't even considered this aspect. For a guy who is freshly divorced (or filed for divorce) - with all the consequences to his ego, sex life and general mental wellbeing - I wouldn't find going to a sex worker something that paints him in a particularly bad light. But the manner of it certainly raises some questions.

leading to quality beneath the dignity of a hundred-millionaire

As opposed to the spectacular quality of Ohio trailer park, I presume?

US has several places with legal brothels, and even more places where they are technically not legal but everybody knows. And countries surrounding the US on both sides have the similar kind of deals - catering in part for US tourists - too.

Maybe the thing on Wikipedia is itself bullshit

A lot of things on Wikipedia are bullshit. Anybody can write anything there, and it's only corrected if somebody else comes and corrects it. Sometimes there's nobody interested, and the nonsense stays up there for a long time. Russian Wikipedia (and any smaller wikis) is more vulnerable just numerically - less people participate, less coverage, less chance to fail to notice some bullshit somebody inserted there for lulz. If Claude does not trust Wikipedia, it's a point to its favor.

The movie American Fiction is essentially that. I quite enjoyed it.

I wonder what is the true nature of the Democrat opposition, as a party - do they want the tech bros to bend the knee, hire unionized trans-minority illegal immigrant workers and everything will be ok (as long as they pay the danegeld consistently) or do they want the whole industry to just go away (likely, to China), out of sight, out of mind - as many other industries did? I mean, the hippie wing definitely wants the latter, for them bread appears on the shelves of the supermarket by government magic, but what is the established position here?

So if there's no economic benefit, why the tax breaks? Is it just plain bribery, i.e. the tech guys bribing the local government? Because if there's little local benefit, why give them the tax breaks at all? Somebody must be getting something from this deal, otherwise why not tax them as much as possible - they'd have to build somewhere anyway, and if nobody gets any benefit locally, then nobody should be giving them the tax break. I suspect there's some benefit at least to somebody here. Is that just the bribery benefit or there's more to it?