LateMechanic
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User ID: 1841
Well this was the next in the line of huge-budget remakes of their mega classics on the level of these, which had actually been insanely successful for disney (including Aladdin's 1 billion which I'm surprised you describe as not working):
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(2014) Maleficent - $750M, budget $180M
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(2016) The Jungle Book - $970M, budget $175M
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(2017) Beauty and the Beast - $1.26B, budget $160M
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(2019) Dumbo - $350M, budget $170M
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(2019) Aladdin - $1.05B, budget $183M
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(2019) The Lion King - $1.66B, budget $260M
- (2023) The Little Mermaid - ~$400-550M (expected end result), budget $250M
There are also some smaller ones, and a maleficent sequel, but The Little Mermaid was expected to be on the Aladdin/Lion King/BatB level.
So it was definitely expected to be doing far better, and not at all the case that 'nobody wants' these. One argument is that peoples' appetite for these remakes has finally dried up, and that this movie's box office is paying for the lion king's sins of being weird looking. And that this was the first of these without major star power. But the negative/international feedback does seem to heavily center on the race-swap ('she doesn't look like ariel from my childhood') and on the creepy realistic animal friends.
LateMechanic
1yr ago
The archives of those pages are linked in the first Revolver article, which shows the FBI had been updating the /wanted/capitol-violence page as each person's status changed (leaving each person's 'photograph number' the same). They were putting big red "ARRESTED" labels on everyone and leaving their picture up. The day before that July 1st update of quietly removing Epps, the top 50 people on the page had over 60% marked 'ARRESTED', while only two numbered suspects had been removed (Suspects #36 and #37, and then Epps #16 was removed the next day).
So the removal was clearly not just triggered by a successful identification. Moreover, based on looking at those red Arrest labels, it seems like their priority was roughly similar to the order of 'photograph number', where being Suspect #16 was close to the top (not many marked arrested in the 250-400 range at that time).
LateMechanic
16d ago
Hence the panic, because deplatforming just looks desperate and villainous. So it comes down to a bet about what is truly more popular/populist, for whether you'd want to signal boost it or not. And I'd suppose that it's actually pretty likely that a majority of people watching minneapolis and LA protestors trying to impede ICE/FBI/DHS might be fantasizing about an even more aggressive response by the cops like OP. It's at least pretty popular among young normie dudes.
If you're saying that @Hadad's confessed opinion in detailed written motte-form is probably so extreme that it would turn people off, I still wouldn't bet on that.
LateMechanic
16d ago
My second thought is to reply, 'Say it louder, and into the microphone, please.' Seriously. Go hop on Fox News and give an interview about how you want to shoot protestors and cruelty is the point and God praise Donald Trump. Write your angry, impotent screeds and spread them as widely as possible - under your real name if you can. There's really nothing better for democratic electoral odds than platforming people like you.
I think he might just get accused of trying to copy Asmongold, who appears to have become one of the most popular streamers & youtubers right now with pretty similar commentary (maybe not quite as violent of fantasy, but in that similar direction). And rather than the democrats wanting to smugly signal boost it, they are in a panic over how to counter that popularity.
LateMechanic
28d ago
Remember that weird moment when Colbert announced that Comey had been fired by Trump? The audience cheered, before being corrected by Colbert that Comey was now a good guy and was to be lionized if you're anti-Trump (the updated narrative which went on for the next month or so in the media).
So it potentially helps Elon to some extent, to make a more dramatic break from Trump with big WWF promos cut from both of them. It depends on how the media plays it, but this could be the same kind of whiplash that erases a fair amount of elon derangement among democrats and lets him slip out of washington with a bit more independent posture intact.
LateMechanic
2yr ago
The nights were pregnant with pre-millennium tension; we ran riot because we had been promised a new century to become adults in, because we were sold on a vision of rebirth through numerology, and we knew what came next would be better than everything that had come before. It turned out that that was untrue, and we never got over it.
Go look around at the way the world looked in 2002. Everything looked like shit. The fashion was worse. The music was worse. The country was worse.
A lot of people are mentioning 9/11 as the main material event that must have been what changed the overall feel and marks the end of the broad 90s. But I think there's something to what Freddie says here about goofy numerology putting something in the air that a lot of people felt. Even if we know rationally that it's arbitrary, it feels interesting psychologically being the last decade of the millennium, about to tick over to triple-zeroes and something new, Y2K. When that passed without incident (as it was bound to), some magic feeling was lost, and we just continued on with boy bands, survivor / american idol reality tv, frosted-tips, whatever.
I think the last faint echo of something like this mass psychology was in the run up to 2012, with the mayan calendar ending doomsday stuff, on the heels of the financial crisis and great recession, occupy wallstreet, the last of peak-oil doomerism before fracking, etc. People could indulge in some more dark fantasies of living in interesting end-times that are about to transition to something different, until january 2013 when it was time to go back to mundane reality.
LateMechanic
2yr ago
Just noting, this line:
hoping to curry favor with the person they expected would be the next American president
was referring to the foreign government looking to donate to the clinton campaign or maybe clinton foundation, not the FBI. Meanwhile in durham's reporting, apparently the FBI were intentionally 'tippy-toeing' based on the chance clinton would be the next president. So it's not quite as strong as you're describing. But an interesting takeaway from the Durham report regardless.
At least as of about 10 years ago, the classic example (by commons/piracy advocates) of rights-holders starting to target propaganda to children was the MPAA working with the LA Boy Scouts to make an anti-piracy merit badge, the "Respect Copyrights Activity Patch" around 2005/2006.
I haven't really followed the arguments in some time, but definitely noticed the same shift in younger normies on reddit over the years. It's hard to imagine that dorky propaganda was so effective, but I'd guess it makes a difference what you're hearing from a young age.
edit: And almost surely the huge victory was successfully getting people to lump copyright/patent/trademark law together under the name "Intellectual Property" since the nineties, which completely does change how you think of these. Thinking of 'property' gives people an intuition about stealing, whereas 'temporary government-granted monopoly publishing rights' doesn't. Seems like when broken down, most people strongly favor trademarks, strongly disfavor patents, and have mixed feelings about copyright.
As an aside, having multiple of my first 10 comments on this site related to Richard Stallman...well that was unexpected.
Even after the market didn't 'plummet' and just went sideways monday & tuesday, some basic news aggregators like yahoo news (don't ask, I'm masochistic and want to see what is being pushed to normie boomers) kept that Reuters article about futures from sunday on the front page for days, just because the headline was so juicy for them as anti-trump fuel, and it seemed like it was applicable at any point in time. People have given some reasonable pushback and alternative explanations, but you're also not wrong here.
LateMechanic
2mo ago
And what's the deal with "Critical Trade Theory?" Are trade deficits a good way to measure non-tariff trade barriers?
The premise must be that it's not really possible to calculate 'average' tariff levels, or the counterfactual amount of trade reduced by tariffs, as people were discussing here in a thread a few days ago. So they're just agnostically looking at the trade deficit level, and saying, if we have free floating exchange rates as the supposed global order post-bretton woods, this is supposed to (roughly) balance out naturally over time to equilibrate everyone's imports and exports. When a country sells more to the US than it buys from the US, that should push up their currency's value and push down the dollar, until the exports/imports from each are competitive with each other again.
If that trade balance doesn't (roughly) happen, it must be because the net-exporting country is devaluing their own currency against that of the net-importer country, by earning/buying the other currency and sitting on it. The positive ways of describing this are like "switzerland is fortifying their stockpile of foreign reserves as part of their monetary policy plan", or more neutrally "china is adjusting their target USD peg". The negative description would be "currency manipulation", which is what the trump team wrote in fine print on their big mathy chart that's being goofed on. Foreign holdings (may be a better chart somewhere) of USD reserves & treasuries is not the naive gut explanation "peasants lending money to the US", it's rather them buying & saving in our currency which happens to push on the exchange rate and make their exports more competitive in the US.
At the macro level, in 'real' terms of trade: your pile of goods & services that your country gets to enjoy are everything your domestic economy can create, plus everything you can import, minus anything you have to export. Exports are a real cost, where your country takes time/effort/materials to make something that someone else gets to enjoy. So we should all hope to be so lucky that anyone targets our country for their currency devaluing, allowing us to import more without paying for it with real exports. But that's at the macro national level. There are real losers on the micro level, like anyone trying to run an export business (who doesn't care at all who they sell their products to). Exporters can be very powerful & politically dominant in other countries, and maybe that's where we find Trump now, influenced by manufacturing business leaders (or trying to court/help their workers). Then there are also other potential motivations for going against the obvious economic benefit of maximizing import value, like the intangible value of maintaining a national manufacturing capability.
LateMechanic
7mo ago
Remember how it felt in July, that this was basically a guaranteed lost election cycle for the democrats, and the main question was who would step up and take it? (to save the downballot races from utter landslide territory if they left Biden in) Everyone at that time was looking past Kamala, as an obvious bad choice, and speculating about Newsom or other up-and-coming talent. But then there was the specter that looking past her would be a perpetual thorn in their side, where Kamala could always be on the outside saying 'told you so', 'my turn', or playing identity cards, fracturing support with stepped-on toes and 'what if' cases.
So it seemed that for the Obamas & party leadership, letting Kamala take this (likely) loss served to clear out Biden, Kamala, and Trump, all in one fell swoop, from the next 2028 cycle. I don't think it was quite at the level of the 'Harris as Jobber' argument -- they would still try to push her to victory. But her loss isn't necessarily theirs, and helps their future prospects in some ways.
LateMechanic
1mo ago
There's a clear different memetic impact depending on whether people mentally bucketed covid as 'a new potentially-deadly virus' or 'a new strain of the flu', so that was always an important territory to fight over.
LateMechanic
2mo ago
The US receives tons if money licensing IP that doesn’t show up in trade.
Are you sure that's not classified in the accounting as an export? There are tons of "invisible trade" services that are properly tracked as exports, like local tourism.
LateMechanic
1yr ago
Problem is, we’re going broke.
Since 2010, the fund that SSA uses to pay benefits to retirees has been paying out more money than it has been receiving in taxes. At the current rate, the fund's trustees estimate that it will exhaust its reserves in 2033 and be unable to pay full scheduled benefits.
As the annual trustees' report shows every single year, of the 4 trust funds, HI/DI/OASI all have exhaustion dates projected in the near future, but SMI always passes with "adequately financed indefinitely" terminology. Which is merely because of how they were set up differently, with SMI being able to be part of the normal government deficit. There's no reason the other three can't be changed in a similar way, which would be a bit awkward for doomsayers if the trustees report every year said a brief 'all funds are adequately financed indefinitely'.
For who points this out, I've only seen MMTers who are trying to show there's no real fundamental economic viability problem here, rather than an accounting & legal issue with how the rules are currently written. And also Cato writers who aren't big fans of the trustees' flowery language and want it to be more explicit about SMI's potential governmental deficit spending.
LateMechanic
1yr ago
What a weird take. That would be like "oh the joe rogan podcast, what a BIG deal, that's the guy from Zookeeper!" Carolla had one of the most popular podcasts in the world for like a decade and it still seems to be doing numbers in the last 5 years (though I already mentioned it may be dwindling). Looking at it, just within the prior 3 weeks before Hanania, they had Candace Owens, Tucker, and Vivek as guests, each pushing one thing or another, and getting more views to the extent that they're a draw.
I'm even subscribed to Hanania's channel, yet the only reason I knew he had a book out was due to stumbling across this particular mainstream appearance (hence my assumption that he had been doing normal rounds like this, and thus my surprise to learn that it's not the case - taking your word for it, I haven't been searching for him).
LateMechanic
2mo ago
I just watched The Birth of a Nation (1915). Despite having a shredded attention span for movies typically, I found it pretty compelling and surprisingly watched it in just a few sittings (same thing I found with the Napoleon silent epic from the 1920s which was even longer). Just great expressive acting, scored well, with a story that flowed at a solid pace (and from a perspective that I can imagine inhabiting, but hadn't seen before). And I can guess how especially impressive some of it was for the time. Though the actors playing mulatto characters were maybe hamming it up too much as the villains, and seemed like they thought they were in a different movie (or maybe the director really wanted to sell that angle).
Given our forum members here, does anyone know of any heterodox witchy takes about the KKK? Are most people fairly accurate in seeing them as shallow dumb racist terrorists, lashing out while hiding their identities in cowardice? Or is that more like history being written by winners, where there was actually more to engage with, some higher theory of mind, like what this movie is trying to portray (revenge, fighting back, or maybe even beyond that)? Back in the day I had the basic high school AP US history, but apparently everything between the civil war and the great depression didn't make a lasting impression, because I find myself really not knowing anything about reconstruction, 'radical republicans', etc. In general I find that time period pretty interesting & appealing, with Monet impressionism, Dostoevsky & Arthur Conan Doyle books, and post-civil-war-set Westerns being most interesting. Just have no idea about the US South vs North around then I guess.
Or failing that, does anyone have any movie recommendations in any similar vein? I used to think of silent movies being mostly slapstick comedies which weren't even that funny, but these two epics I mentioned were great. Or related to this movie in other ways, I tried watching Gone With the Wind and Triumph of the Will, but got bored of both after 10-20 minutes (will give them another shot at some point). The 2012 spielberg Lincoln movie was great too, for DDL acting, and it seems like the Tommy Lee Jones character was rehabilitating the similar character in Birth.
LateMechanic
4mo ago
I would have recommended glenn greenwald (System Update), max blumenthal & aaron mate (The Grayzone), and matt taibbi (Racket News) as leftist journalists with good video/audio backlogs. But that may not be what you're looking for here, as these are the types who feel the modern left moved away from them over the last 10 years, and don't necessarily have many takes that the motte disagrees with. So it's largely critical of israel/neocons/neoliberals, and often defenses of trump against the establishment.
LateMechanic
2yr ago
I couldn't avoid searching 'richard stallman dancing' after reading that, and wasn't disappointed.
LateMechanic
2mo ago
Interesting, thanks. Yeah the wiki article on Reconstruction era referred to "the legal, social, and political challenges of the abolition of slavery and the reintegration of the eleven former Confederate States into the United States" and various laws & amendments being passed nationally, which sounded like what I remembered. But what stood out was looking up what marked the end, the supposed compromise of 1877, simply being when federal troops were pulled out (so it was all an 'era' characterized by gunpoint).
Union imposed governments were incompetent, corrupt, and full of radicals who didn’t particularly care how their ideas worked in practice.
That's the wild part to me, which I somehow never learned or got through osmosis. I always had the connotation of 'carpetbagger' as economic opportunist, northern capitalists coming down to make a buck, a la 'shock doctrine'. Never knew that apparently northern white & black republicans literally went south and became congressmen & governors for a decade. The people who would actually pack up and move to a southern city to try to run/organize politics and government -- that's a mindset I'd also like to see portrayed from the flipside. If it was something other than a naked power grab, I could imagine it positively portrayed as a moral SJW angle, a 'doing my part' missionary flavor, or a more general entrepreneurial spirit.
Much less is known about the first wave of the klan but vigilantism has a long history in the south
I was wondering if maybe in the initial wave they were trying to imitate the crusades with the outfits and talk of wizards & knights. Then the revival in the 20s after this movie came out seems a lot more like a fanclub secret society, either larping or wanting more agency of 'you can just do stuff'. Admittedly, the movie poster artwork does look fairly badass, and makes me want to play dark souls or something.
The 'vibe shift' also changed the equation somewhat. Some unabashed american chauvinism from an outside 'mirer in the mid biden years feels like a breath of fresh air, leaving many people saying 'you've got better spirit than a lot of my actual neighbors, hope to see you here soon bro'. Or at least respecting the contrarian take (especially framed as an argument with a more cosmopolitan/europhile girlfriend).
But right now and for the past few months, practically every day has already felt like christmas to an american chauvinist. So there's no longer much feeling of thirsty drought of that kind of spirit -- making it exactly the wrong time to air any kind of annoyed entitlement over the changes from the shift, based on taking the previous sentiments for granted. That exposes the cracks in the 'more american than actual americans' fantasy.
LateMechanic
7mo ago
https://www.donaldjtrump.com/agenda47/president-donald-j-trump-free-speech-policy-initiative So it's from Dec 2022, during the twitter files? Part of what seems strange is that he's aged appreciably since then, particularly after the shooting. Biden from 2-3 years ago also practically seems like AI when you're used to seeing him now.
LateMechanic
2mo ago
Yeah my experience whether on or off keto was that sucralose & sugar alcohols didn't disrupt my hunger/satiation. And I thought as of maybe 10+ years ago, the story was that while each of the artificial sweeteners have slightly different results with different people, they all had extremely low metabolic response compared to dietary carbs in general. The idea of your body being 'tricked' into producing a flood of insulin by the apparent encountered sweetness seems like some kind of psychological intuition that some people may find useful, but that wasn't backed by evidence.
And it's crazy to hear dentists saying 'luckily you're not a soda drinker' when looking at perfect teeth, whenever I'm drinking an impressively expensive amount of energy drinks instead of coffee.
LateMechanic
7mo ago
I can't fully remember the 2016 one, but Cenk had a solid 4 minute rant ripping democrats once the NYT needle got to about 85-90% last night, maybe 10-20 minutes before he went on the PBD show to take some lumps from a hostile crowd. But definitely different vibe from 2016 -- less utter shock or tear-shedding from over-investment in a candidate.
LateMechanic
8mo ago
The point I am trying to make is that "MAGA see Puerto Ricans as outgroup" is not priced in - if Hinchcliffe had said Haiti was a trash island it would have been a dog bites man story.
I'd think it's roughly the opposite of that (at least in reality, but maybe you're making a good case for why pundits would try to make this stick). Puerto Rico works as the punchline because it's a funny surprise, exactly because they're not a serious outgroup currently, but are a decent sub-population in NYC. They can take being roasted in 2024, especially when the bit is more about the 'island of trash' setup, and the punchline just needs to be [real place].
It would have actually sounded a lot meaner and out of place if he said "yeah, I think it's called Haiti". That's where other comedians would start saying 'woah did this just turn into a klan rally?'
Although subjectively explaining vote counts almost never works out, this one seems to make sense to me (as a lurker throwing around upvotes).
Your first post framed this as exasperated leaders at their wits end just honestly trying to get men to treat women as fellow humans, which apparently doesn't ring true or sound too compelling to people here. "What's wrong with the men these days that people think this is the only way they will behave?" as a question is totally dependent on the legitimacy & good faith of the premise "people think this is the only way", which is the main contention in most of the other top-level replies.
The_Nybbler seemed to cut through right to the key point, that attractive/desirable men are going to keep winning in online dating regardless of how many rules they follow or break. So making more punishments and penalties available to women to use against men they aren't interested in is continuing the same one-sided trend we've been in, which can feel unfair and avoidant of root issues.
Then you spun that into a long and somewhat interesting comment (though with about 3 too many links) about how we're screwed if we just let 'cheaters' win, which also characterized persistence in the most nasty way 'lying/manipulation/harassing to get laid'. But the point wasn't that we let cheaters win, it was that desirable men win online dating whether they cheat or not.
So to an average observer, it looked like you had perfect form and a great-looking swing, but you just whiffed the ball on both swings. Meanwhile The Nybbler had a bit of a lazier swing but nailed the ball square-on. Hence you not being downvoted to oblivion or anything, but just receiving merely mild internet reward points.
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