No_one
Underemployed Slav. Likes playing Factorio.
User ID: 1042
No_one
5hr ago
I think Krugman is full of shit because there's a vast difference between 'fax machine' and people doing research being able to access practically everything interesting that's ever been written.
At least with software development internet enabled cooperation increases productivity by a big factor.
No_one
1d ago
The list apparently includes a former twitter head of AI-safety.
Using my cynical glasses derived from living in eastern Europe, probably the person who was supposed to develop automated opinions suppression mechanisms for Twitter.
Europe has a very different history with antisemitism than the US does.
No, it really doesn't. Before and during WW2, antisemitism was common across the present 'western world'.
In a 1938 poll, approximately 60 percent of the respondents held a low opinion of Jews, labeling them "greedy," "dishonest," and "pushy."[42] 41 percent of respondents agreed that Jews had "too much power in the United States," and this figure rose to 58 percent by 1945.[43] Several surveys taken from 1940 to 1946 found that Jews were seen as a greater threat to the welfare of the United States than any other national, religious, or racial group.[44]
Government attitudes to Jews in Europe also varied wildly, even among German allies. Finland told Germans to pound sand. Italy refused to hand over their Jews -that 30% of Italian Jews were members of the Fascist party had something to do with it & transports started only after the German occupation.
I'm going to once again recommend "The Eternal Front" by Walter Blaire.
Technically it's a mildly hard mil-sf but the war is just the setting. Yes, there are fights, but mostly the novel is more of a mystery/spy/political story.
It's very well written for a self-published work and quite novel, to me.
All the constituent parts have been re-worked and put in an arrangement that is arguably original.
As in, vastly better than the typical technothriller tier writing most SF has.
I once wrote a nice message to the author, saying it's on the level of how Iain Banks wrote when drunk. He really liked it. Hard to judge, but I don't think I'm more than mildly wrong.
Most books - like e.g. 'Bobiverse' are painfully contemporary. You've got SF trappings, but everything else - language, ethics etc feels like modern day West.
This book - the SF trappings are minimal, 99% of stuff used during the plot is pure electric age tech, or even late steam era. It's set on the fringe of a rapidly declining colony that started with cca 22nd century tech level - AIs, fusion power, 'reasonable' nanotech etc.
The languages spoken by the various groups are all recognizable modern English - but style / vocabulary wise feel alien. However, unlike Star Wars, it's 'actually sf' in that it tries to be internally coherent, cares about historical, political and technological constraints and so on.
People have their own odd ethics. The colonists, Haphans, culturally seem like a weird mix between 19th century Britain (social mores) and North Korea (politics). They're described as pretty much human, but clearly from a 'prepped*' population. There's no mention of Earth whatsoever in their history, or of other non-Hapha humans, although Earth clearly exists within the setting because there's one oblique reference to it - a Hebrew derived name in a minor, outsider character.
The natives ancestors were human once but aren't, anymore. They're descended from someone's 'plausible' idea of a supersoldier race. There's a small bit of 'art major biology' in the book, but most of the stuff is within bounds of physics and biology.
They're savants at fighting - much more accurate, fast breeding, love fighting, vastly better reaction time, far less likely to die from injury, immune to disease, a second grafted on nervous system preventing combat fatigue or undue fear of death, a whole set of instincts related to weapons and looks like also primitive armament production. Neurologically problematic for them to tell a lie. And so on. Interestingly, linguistic drift is also what they're missing entirely.
They seem about as intelligent as Haphans, who seem pretty normal, but the feral supersoldier heritage causes problems - e.g. engineers or scientists killing each other due to disagreement is a frequent, not very rare risk. By themselves, they only ever achieved high middle ages technology.
*Quote from Iain M Banks' Algebraist (spoilers):
Prepping. A very long-established practice, used lately by the Culmina amongst others, is to take a few examples of a pre-civilised species from their home world (usually in clonoclastic or embryonic form) and make them subject species\slaves\mercenaries\mentored. so that when the people from their home world finally assume the Galactic stage, they are not the most civilised\advanced of their kind (often they're not even the most numerous grouping of their kind). Species so treated are expected to feel an obligation to their so-called mentors (who will also generally claim to have diverted comets or otherwise prevented catastrophes in the interim, whether they have or not). This practice has been banned in the past when pan-Galactic laws (see Galactic Council) have been upheld but tends to reappear in less civilised times. Practice variously referred to as Prepping, Lifting or Aggressive Mentoring. Local-relevant terminology: aHuman & rHuman (advanced and remainder Human).
No_one
2d ago
With AI, the odds of automating zersetzung are approaching 100%.
It's much less disruptive than jailing people, and probably cheaper.
No_one
2d ago
I'd not really fear SV that much, but what D.C. gestapo contractors and their opposite numbers in China are going to do.
No_one
4d ago
What about.. the supply part of the army ? Driving trucks, working in logistics. Any part of that <100 km can be fatal on a bad day if a drone spots it and it's deemed a good enough target.
No_one
2d ago
He seems extra pissed at anonymity and posting how it's bad. Very incongruous with the rest of the stuff he is loud pn-
I suspect he was getting trolled real, real hard by some sociopaths, probably left wing. (bigger, smarter group of his enemies )
No_one
4d ago
When the word 'gooning' has been not only coined but escaped containment to the point fossils like Norman Finkelstein are aware of it, yeah, it's way past time.
Impaired brain development/functionality
Erectile dysfunction in <35 men has gone up from 2-5% to 20-30% in recent years.
Really no substitute for giving it a try. Just get a good hentai game(youtube link,sfw) and a free afternoon and find for yourself.
No_one
4d ago
It's true for some people, at least, or possibly much easier for some people than others, same as alcoholism.
However, there's only something like 12 scholars publishing on it worldwide, and most of the research is very bad of the type "we handed out a bunch of surveys to a 60% undergrad female body" or evaluation of an "online survey".
No_one
3d ago
So I get downvoted because some Japan tier messed up porn genres, ones I haven't even heard of are.. not allowed on Steam.
Got it.
No_one
4d ago
The extreme difficulty of getting adult content published on major distribution channels like Steam or the Apple/Google app stores
Difficulty publishing porn on steam? I find that doubtful.
No_one
4d ago
I prefer to err on the side of the wisdom of crowds and see 'past winners' continuing to buy 'winning' tech. Lazy and reductive, but its not like the history disfavors it.
I mean...do you? Look at WW2. Past winners prepared for a trench war. Especially in wars, looking at what used to win is just weird. There's been no good environment to establish what actually works and what doesn't.
As I understand it, NATO doctrine is really not well prepared for what's going on in Ukraine
In any case S400 has been directly used by Russia in Syria already, which is right next to Israel which has had F35s in the air since 201?, so the live data aspect should already be known to them
Russia is not firing them at Israeli war planes. Don't know what the etiquette is at locking targeting radars on IAF, but I imagine it's also not done there for obvious reasons (in a war zone, the logical thing is for someone to fire an anti-radiation missile the other way) so Israelis in F-35s wouldn't know if they're being acquired.
Later I thought of another reason for it : trying to pressure arm Turkey into buying Patriots or other NATO system. Looks like it's much more complicated:
https://warontherocks.com/2019/07/the-tale-of-turkey-and-the-patriots/
Turkey has been trying to build Patriots, but wanted some technology transfer to occur. Americans said no, won't let an ally license . So then they threatened to buy Chinese SAMs. Eventually bought the S-400.
No_one
4d ago
It’s even funnier to think the US wouldn’t have air superiority against the joke of Russian capabilities we’ve seen.
I guess you haven't been paying attention to Russia destroying US 'smart' munitions, in flight, repeatedly.
No_one
5d ago
If you have less than a day of storage, you need back up power plants because calm winds easily last up to a week.
No_one
5d ago
Point to how good multilateration is vs stealth please.
You want me to give you the kind of data that'd get you into ADX Florence or whatever its Chinese equivalent is ?
I think people are just full of shit. And when there's billions at stake, the incentive to deny and lie and hope it somehow works out gets irresistible.
Americans pointedly refused to even sell Turkey their F-35s because they apparently don't want it tested against it in a real environment.
https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/us-turkey-continue-talks-to-settle-f-35-dispute
S-400 doesn't phone home, no military system can afford to, so it's obviously they didn't want the problem where Turkish air defence troops find out just how good F-35 is. There's little justification for it. They just want to delay the inevitable.
No_one
5d ago
Well, the Biden admin has been the gift that keeps on giving. Money well spent if you're an accelerationist.
I didn't think they'd do the title IX thing with trans, but it looks like trans BS is as irresistible to democrats as abortions are to republicans.
No_one
5d ago
Wow. Imagine thinking US could do combined arms warfare in absence of air superiority.
No_one
4d ago
Yes, being able to occassionally hit targets inside of Russia with small plastic drones or sometimes even an ultralight plane means "Russia isn't controlling its airspace".
LLM tier understanding on display from you, so bye.
No_one
4d ago
They weren't 'outnumbered'. Russian invaded with 150-170k troops.
Outgunned, maybe not even that.
and are incapable of separating the US military being able to destroy a foe in a force-on-force engagement
The US military has performed very well whenever it has conducted force-on-force operations, in terms of both logistics and combat. We barely took a scratch.
?? Last time US managed to win a war against a peer enemy was WW2. And that was mostly because of massive material superiority. So making assumptions based on WW2, now, is a joke.
Yes, I know US navy is still based on ideas learned in WW2. That in itself is a big joke.
No_one
5d ago
Let's just ignore the reality of last years, that Ukraine is not winning but getting pushed back or that the US is unable to deal with an 80 IQ militia armed with a few Iranian missiles and assume it's 1991, it's always been 1991 and it's always going to be 1991.
And also let's pretend Ukraine is winning because you're giving them Stingers. Which you no can no longer make.
It's not a nothingburger. It was overhyped initially (as everything is).
Anyway, LLMs. Apparently you can prevent them from hallucinating and make them accurately give advice on the content of a textbook or manual. Or so says Steve Hsu, who founded a company that (he claims) did that. I haven't followed it up but supposedly they had an initial sale.
Looks like superhuman performance isn't going to happen through this architecture, as you can't do self-competitive play - what was done with games but incremental progress -people making the models reliable, useful, likely even assembling normal to middling smart human-intelligence agents, with a will -is likely in the near term (10 years).
So at the very least, within 15 years, we're looking at governments being able to use 'kinda dumb' spies, automatically flag problematic online, on the scale of an entire population.
To sum it up:
-call centres: likely a lot less employment
-increased productivity of at least software developers, lawyers, theoretically bureaucrats (lol no).
-automated spying on everything your write on an online device -but not very smart spying- almost certain. Combined with universal private messaging access by governments (EU -DC's sock puppet - wants this), it's likely going to happen. Even though 'chat control' the initial proposal was defeated, it's going to come back.. IMO I suspect having an app that is not broken might even be criminalised because 'Chyna'.
-social media is dead without independent ID verification. Automated, much better online astroturfing.
-good enough chatbots that waste time of troublemakers / get people to spend money on BS / troll
-textbooks that talk
-even more addictive porn in the 5 year horizon (people can overuse the porn to the degree they can find that one special thing that appeals to them. When that can be generated on the fly, crap..)
In 'other ML' news, autonomous killbots (ethical militaries will geofence them to combat zone) are 100% certain to happen.
100%, anyone who doesn't develop autonomous drone air fighters in is going to get absolutely wrecked by people who develop autonomous drones bombers. I'm talking machineguns vs cavalry style carnage on the ground. Developing a $1000, fast, evasive reusable FPV drone drop mortar bombs with pin-point accuracy is just a question of 4-5 good university aeronautics student projects. It'll zoom low across the ground at 50-100 kph, deliver a bomb, reload/swap battery, while getting target data from recon drones or troops. It's not even funny how brutal this is.
A countermeasure - autocannon with VT flak rounds costs $300k. And needs a vehicle. A vehicle that's vastly more expensive than an IR or optically guided missile.
Ray beams won't help you (at sea maybe) because of line of sight problems. Drones will spot them call in an missile strike. Poof.
More options
Context Copy link