NunoSempere
No bio...
User ID: 1101
NunoSempere
11mo ago
Congrats! I'm intrigued. Where are you from originally? Whats' your startup about? Do you have funding?
NunoSempere
11mo ago
Thanks! I mean, there is definitely a problem of talking too much, but talk does allow people to coordinate better as well.
NunoSempere
11mo ago
I'm on Twitter, @NunoSempere!
I'm very unsure about what would rock your boat, here are three clusters:
- @TylerAlterman, @visakanv, @KeturahAbigail, @shagbark_hick
- @alexandrosM, @zackmdavis, @EgeErdil2, @Domahhhh
- @dick_nickson, @rsalame7926, @wagieeacc, @real_lord_miles
NunoSempere
10mo ago
Very neat. But, might you give a worked example of how to use an equivalent measure to solve Allais' Paradox?
NunoSempere
9mo ago
Do people have any thoughts, questions on forecasting stuff?
Some things I'd love to have some back and forths about:
- How to model the chance that North Korea will detonate a nuclear bomb by end of year?
- Chance that monkeypox will spread to the West? Distribution of expected deaths?
- How to model the spread of conflict? How to model which states matter in the world?
- What will happen with Bangladesh?
- Some states are three families in a trenchcoat. What's up with that? Particularly in the case of Pakistan: it's a nuclear state, but it also just has a lot of difficulty projecting power into rural areas...
NunoSempere
9mo ago
Yes, the overwhelmingly most likely case is as a test.
Monkeypox is currently mostly an STD, especially between men, right?
Nope, this was the previous strain. This one seems to be spread by close contact as well, e.g., in families, corpses, etc.
Exporting technological and social innovation is another factor I care about. E.g., the Germans experimented with tanks in the Spanish civil war, and this affected the next war; similarly, I'm thinking about how much to care about Ukranian advances, or about conflicts in Africa developing strategies that are then exported to other conflicts.
NunoSempere
9mo ago
Geopolitical Alpha by Marko Papic
Thanks!
NunoSempere
9mo ago
Ehhh...
It's in some spectrum between Ebola and smallpox. Largest than the largest Ebola outbreak, much smaller than smallpox.
NunoSempere
9mo ago
The DRC had 2,662 cases over the past week, 25 of them fatal. Of cases this year, 58% occurred in children younger than 15,
From: https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/mpox/mpox-escalates-africa-officials-launch-response-plan
NunoSempere
9mo ago
Write a million words.
NunoSempere
9mo ago
Here is a dump of some stuff I'm keeping track of; happy to get thoughts on any of it. Warning that these can look pretty worrying when joined together, but stuff of similar severity happens about every week. The context for these is that I'm trying to anticipate crisis that could spiral out of hand, and I have alerts and software that processes large amounts of news and highlights some of the more worrying ones.
A United Nations statement by the UK https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/the-increased-military-cooperation-between-russia-iran-and-dprk-poses-an-unacceptable-threat-to-global-security-uk-statement-at-the-un-security-cou
Pagers exploded, killing many Hezbollah terrorists https://x.com/HilzFuld/status/1836051026673119719 https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/9/17/dozens-of-hezbollah-members-wounded-after-pagers-explode-in-lebanon Here are some expert opinions: https://freebeacon.com/national-security/what-experts-make-of-israels-ingenious-hezbollah-pager-attack/
Israel has been re-establishing deterrence since it was badly undermined last Oct. 7. Like the recent assassinations in Lebanon and Iran, and Israel’s attack on some Iranian air defense sites in April, this attack is meant to remind Hezbollah of Israel’s technical sophistication and its willpower. Israel is trying to make it clear to Hezbollah and Iran that it does not fear escalation. Hezbollah will respond, but this attack will make them realize they are more vulnerable than they think
Initially 2k, now up to 4k. https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1836097128747151422 Images: https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1836061232433930309 Iranian ambassador to Lebanon also injured Here is a video in a hospital: https://x.com/WachtelDan/status/1836038754756145515
WhiteHouse meeting on mpox https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/09/16/readout-of-white-house-convening-on-mpox/ https://www.state.gov/digital-press-briefing-u-s-government-support-to-the-global-response-to-mpox/
Big google could hack https://www.techradar.com/pro/security/researchers-uncover-rce-exploit-in-google-cloud-millions-of-servers-at-risk https://www.tenable.com/blog/cloudimposer-executing-code-on-millions-of-google-servers-with-a-single-malicious-package
https://www.thepoultrysite.com/news/2024/09/czech-republic-reports-avian-influenza-outbreak H5N1 outbreak in the Czech republic. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/czech-republic-reported-bird-flu-outbreak-farm-woah-says-2024-09-16/
Reuters on secret service https://www.reuters.com/world/us/new-apparent-trump-assassination-attempt-highlights-secret-service-strains-2024-09-17/
Putin to increase size of Russian army https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-orders-russian-army-grow-by-180000-soldiers-become-15-million-strong-2024-09-16/
In a decree published on the Kremlin's website, Putin ordered the overall size of the armed forces to be increased to 2.38 million people, of which he said 1.5 million should be active servicemen.
Speculations about how they did this https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1836113607572230358
WHO flags limited mpox testing in epicenter DRC https://www.voanews.com/a/who-flags-limited-mpox-testing-in-epicenter-drc-/7784829.html suggests that actual number of cases is higher
Israel says missile from Yemen fell in central Israel https://www.yahoo.com/news/israeli-army-says-missile-yemen-052624033.html
First conviction under Hong Kong's new national security law for wearing "seditious" T-shirt https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/first-conviction-under-hong-kongs-new-national-security-law-wearing-seditious-t-2024-09-16/
Iran hanged Baloch liberation group leader https://www.foreignpolicyjournal.com/2010/06/20/iran-executes-jundullah-founder-abdul-malik-rigi/
Follow up attacks with walkietalkies https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/lebanon-pagers-explode-hezbollah-israel-09-18-24-intl-hnk/index.html
Militants in India's Kashmir are proffessionalizing https://tribune.com.pk/story/2497064/iiojk-intensified-militancy-and-the-bewildered-indian-army
UNICEF aiming to fundraise 58M https://reliefweb.int/report/democratic-republic-congo/unicef-global-mpox-preparedness-and-response-children-september-2024-february-2025 salhattab@unicef.org
North Korea test-fired ballistic missiles in latest military display, neighbors say https://apnews.com/article/north-korea-ballistic-missile-tensions-af75c31d24dc53b0ae0db7260458563b
Meta and Youtube ban Russia Today https://countercurrents.org/2024/09/meta-platforms-and-youtube-ban-rt-worldwide/
Gavi to buy 500,000 mpox vaccine doses from Bavarian Nordic https://www.yahoo.com/news/gavi-buy-500-000-mpox-084946643.html
More details on the exploding pagers https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/18/world/middleeast/israel-exploding-pagers-hezbollah.html
NunoSempere
9mo ago
Things I'm tracking (besides Lebanon)
Geopolitics
Iraq also attacked Israel https://www.palestinechronicle.com/iraqi-resistance-drones-attack-israel-in-first-sirens-heard-in-bisan/
China seems to be producing drones for Russia https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-has-secret-war-drones-project-china-intel-sources-say-2024-09-25/
Hezbollah launched a ballistic missile to Tel Aviv. It was intercepted https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/lebanons-hezbollah-says-it-launched-rocket-targeting-mossad-base-near-tel-aviv-2024-09-25/ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/09/25/israel-hamas-war-latest-news-hezbollah-64/ https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/9/25/hezbollah-fires-missile-at-mossad-hq-near-tel-aviv
UK sends troops to Cyprus https://www.reuters.com/world/britain-urges-nationals-leave-lebanon-2024-09-24/
Bio
India confirms mpox clade Ib case https://www.aol.co.uk/news/india-confirms-first-case-dangerous-152803698.html?guccounter=1
NunoSempere
9mo ago
Lebanon thread. A summary statistic is that Polymarket is at ~49% at the time of this writting that Israel will invade Lebanon. https://polymarket.com/event/will-israel-enter-lebanon-before-November
NunoSempere
9mo ago
Looked into it, doesn't seem like the market has really priced recent developments. But at the same time, the US is trying to avoid an invasion. Not sure what to think.
NunoSempere
9mo ago
Makes sense
NunoSempere
9mo ago
Things are gettin' spicy.
I know right
NunoSempere
9mo ago
Yes, definitely.
I also recently refreshed my mind by looking at Cyprus on a map: https://www.google.com/maps/place/Cyprus/@34.4816366,29.3321508,1004982m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m6!3m5!1s0x14de1767ca494d55:0x324c3c807fc4146e!8m2!3d35.126413!4d33.429859!16zL20vMDFwcHE?entry=ttu&g_ep=EgoyMDI0MDkyNC4wIKXMDSoASAFQAw%3D%3D
It's just placed very conveniently. Makes sense why Turkey would invade it.
NunoSempere
9mo ago
other examples elsewhere I could list if requested
Yes, would love some other examples.
Also, how much of a fad is BSW?
NunoSempere
8mo ago
Stuff I've been tracking this week so far:
The US approved $110M worth of radar & other equipment to Romania
...as Romania's top court bans a pro-Russian candidate from running in the presidential election next month
Russian arms dealer is attempting to broker a deal with the Houthis
The Japanese Prime Minister suggested a Japanese base in Guam, to the dismay of the Guam population.
Over 3000 Sunni scholars praised Khamenei over Iran’s military action on Israel. This is relevant because it shows religious unity and consensus building, which is predictive of further actions in the same direction.
Israel expands offensive against Hezbollah in south Lebanon. As seems to be the pattern in recent conflicts, initial incursions and special operations later expand, such that there is no clear line for "full-blown conflict"
Israel also kills Hassan Nasrallah's successor
Kazakhstan to build nuclear power plant
Hezbollah rockets hit Haifa
More than 130 projectiles fired into Israel on anniversary of Oct 7 attack
A dispute in Nigeria seems small scale now but in the worst case scenario could snowball into a civil war. Details are unclear but the dispute seems between the central government of Nigeria, controlled by one party, and the governorate of an oil rich region, controlled by another.
Mpox spreads in a DRC megacity, Kinshasa (formerly Leopoldville, with 17M inhabitants, largest city in Africa)
An interview with John Sullivan, former US ambassador to Russia, has this snippet on Putin's possible use of nuclear weapons:
I’m not a nuclear weapons expert, but I did spend a lot of time in Russia, observing Putin and his government and how they approach this war. And I also spoke to military experts in the US while I was Ambassador. The use of a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine isn’t in the interests of Russia. A tactical nuclear weapon destroys things. Putin would be destroying territory that he says is part of Russia.
The only time I thought he might use an unconventional weapon was in the spring of 2020 when you'll recall, the Russian military surrounded Mariupol, an important port. And there was a large Ukrainian military contingent in a large steel factory. They were dug in. The Russians had expended a huge amount of resources [and] personnel to try to crush the Ukrainian resistance. I thought Putin might use chemical weapons the way Assad used chemical weapons in Syria to kill those who were resisting so that he wouldn't have to spend the lives of as many Russians as it would take to ultimately dig out those Ukrainian resisters. Huge Russian casualties [and] even then, he didn’t use a nuclear weapon.
The way I think of it, Putin has to be threatened personally. And there was a moment last year with [former Wagner mercenary chief, Yevgeny] Prigozhin. Instead of it being Wagner, Russians who were committing what they characterised as a mutiny against the Minister of Defence […] imagine that’s the Ukrainian armed forces and they’re marching north toward Moscow, the capital of the Russian world. If Ukrainians were threatening that, that’s where I would not rule out the possibility that Putin would use or threaten in a much more overt, destabilising way – through a nuclear test, for example – nuclear weapons. But it would have to be a threat to his regime in the Kremlin, not battlefield losses in Ukraine or even public support starting to diminish in Russia.
A BBC documentary claims that on 8 June 1967, during the Six-Day War, America considered launching a nuclear attack against Egypt
Saudi Arabia under MBS is carrying out around 200 executions a year
The mayor of a city in southwest Mexico was beheaded
Dominican Republic starts mass deportations of Haitians and expels nearly 11,000 in a week
Rwanda introduces partial travel ban to fight Marburg spread
Doctors without borders warns that Israeli mass evacuation orders are creating catastrophic conditions
Mongolian police seize around 290 dead marmots, in effort to stop spread of bubonic plague. Although hunting marmots is illegal in Mongolia, many locals regard the rodent as a delicacy and frequently disregard the law.
China seems to have hacked the mechanism that US telecoms use to assent to US court-authorized wiretaps.
NunoSempere
8mo ago
Thanks! I'm basically doing this professionally now, and the infra behind that list is kind of insane.
I haven't given much thought about whether this one will turn into a civil war or remain as a political dispute; at this point I'm just flagging it to keep an eye on it.
NunoSempere
8mo ago
Very nice!
Somebody asked last time I posted a list like this what the background was. I'm coming from an EA/forecasting background, but then realized that although there might be something to being worried about catastrophic risks, reponses to this were top-down, trying to conceptualize risks long beforehand. I grew very unsatisfied with this, particularly for AI, and ended up raising some money to run a foresight/fast response team. We produce weekly minutes here, and the below feeds into that.
Some general topics:
- Will NK detonate a nuclear weapon? When?
- To what extent is ww3 a good level of analysis for global conflicts?
- I used to not worry that much about climate change, but 100-1k people killed in my own backyard (Spain) makes me a bit more worried
- On the one had, a terrorist cooking ricin is a bit alarming. On the other hand, it shows that Al Qaeda doesn't have the chops to do anthrax or bottox. Thoughts?
- Is the WHO's global emergency corps bullshit? Seems like it's a "reserve of experts"
- I didn't know that France depended on Rosatom for nuclear fuel. Lol.
- We've been seeing mpox coming to developed nations for a while, but it's still striking to see the 1st london case.
South Korea’s military intelligence agency told lawmakers Wednesday that North Korea has likely completed preparations for its seventh nuclear test and is close to test-firing a long-range missile capable of reaching the United States.
An article looks at the growing alliance between China, Russia and other powers
Jamie Dimon, the head of the financial giant JP Morgan, makes the argument that we are already in a WW3.
Animal testing of H5N1 gives some data about how well it's adapting
Russia launches exercises simulating retaliatory strikes
Pakistan vows to emphasize military ties to Russia, and collaborates on anti-terrorism exercises.
At least 100 people have died so far (and about 1000 are "disappeared") in flash flooding of Spain’s Valencia. Bridges collapsing, and overall very striking videos on social media. The city got what would have been a freak tornado, but such events might become more common as climate change continues changing up weather patterns.
A teen who went into a murderous rampage was also cooking ricin.
Israel ordered a whole Lebanese city evacuated
Geneva convention rules are being weakened, and civilians aren't being shielded from the worst harms in Ukraine or Gaza.
Finland seized Russian assets over compensation linked to invasion of Crimea
A Boeing satellite exploded into 500 pieces. The worst case scenario in events like this is Kessler syndrome but so far reporting doesn't point to something like this, though early simulations don't look great
The US and China are fighting over dominance in the depths of the South China sea
The WHO activated the global emergency corps to deal with monkeypox. Implications unclear, as it seems more like a "reserve of experts that advise" and less like a "reserve of nurses and doctors"
A cyberattack from Iran hit an Israeli bank, and maybe credit card users generally, blocking users off.
Cyberattack against French Internet Service Provider
New agreement between Germany and the UK will tighten cooperation
Ballot box arson attacks in Oregon.
More cyberattacks in Australia
Fire in UK shipyard which builds nuclear submarines
The 2025 geomagnetic storm season might be pretty big
France depends on Russia for nuclear fuel
Some Russia military bases are empty. Some experts suggest this is for sabotage operations in the Baltics
First case of mpox Ib clade in London
Floods also caused havoc in Africa
Putin launches drills of Russia's nuclear forces simulating retaliatory strikes
India is expanding nuclear capabilities with fast breeder reactor
The US CDC issued an alert for "walking pneumonia"
A man with 120 guns and 250,000 rounds of ammunition in his home was arrested for shooting at a Democratic Party office
in Tempe
AI "Will Enhance" Nuclear Command and Control, Says nuclear command general
North Korea likely to ask for nuclear technology from Russia in exchange for troops, South Korea says. This would mirror an agreement between Iran and Russia.
The US army is preparing for a possible confrontation with China
Hezbollah new leader might agree on a ceasefire
More coral bleaching
Israel is using AI tools with little oversight to determine whether an individual is a Hamas operative.
North Korea conducted an ICBM test.
H5N1 detected in pig. Previously only in cows
NunoSempere
8mo ago
Why doesn't monkeypox excite you? It could fill in the niche that smallpox previously had.
NunoSempere
8mo ago
I think I'm mostly focused on terrible outliers, and the mortality for H5N1 just doesn't seem that high. Say 0.05x to 3x covid, something in that range. You then have to add long-term effects, which are hard to estimate &c, but it just doesn't seem very existentially threatening.
This is not clear to me. My sense is that you could construct a scheme where you can do this. For instance, by a) not using corporate structures, b) using your own money supply, which you mint and control. And worse comes to worse, c) using a different jurisdiction.
...but then you could still be charged with something like racketeering or creating some sort of conspiracy? I don't know.
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