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NunoSempere


				

				

				
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joined 10 Sep 2022

				

User ID: 1101

NunoSempere


				
				
				

				
0 followers   follows 0 users   joined 10 Sep 2022

					

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User ID: 1101

The linked post seeks to outline why I feel uneasy about high existential risk estimates from AGI (e.g., 80% doom by 2070). When I try to verbalize this, I view considerations like

  • selection effects at the level of which arguments are discovered and distributed

  • community epistemic problems, and

  • increased uncertainty due to chains of reasoning with imperfect concepts

as real and important.

I'd be curious to get perspectives form the people of the Motte, e.g., telling me that I'm the crazy one & so on.

Regards,

Nuño.

Highlights:

Highlights

Highlights:

  • PredictIt vs Kalshi vs CFTC saga continues

  • Future Fund announces $1M+ prize for arguments which shift their probabilities about AI timelines and dangers

  • Dan Luu looks at the track record of futurists

Highlights

I'd prefer comments or questions here on account of themotte.org site being pretty young. Long live The Motte!