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User ID: 1101

NunoSempere


				
				
				

				
0 followers   follows 3 users   joined 2022 September 10 10:19:29 UTC

					

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User ID: 1101

UN declaration of famine

The FRC considers the analysis team’s current classification (IPC Phase 5 Famine with reasonable evidence) to be plausible

While it is possible that based on the data available as of 15 August, the food entering in August may meet the estimated 62,000 MT threshold of needs, this remains unclear. Even so, this would still not be sufficient to reverse the catastrophic levels of hunger and suffering, given the many months that this threshold was not met prior.

Wheat flour has seen major price fluctuations—up to USD 30 in June and coming back down to around USD 15 in July.

Food utilization in terms of preparation remains extremely hampered by the complete lack of fuel and cooking gas to prepare food, forcing households to increasingly rely on burning rubbish across all governorates, particularly in Gaza Governorate (73%).37 No cooking gas has entered the Strip since February 2025.38 Staple foods, such as lentils and wheat flour, if poorly cooked are not well digested by the body, reducing the body’s ability to fully absorb and use the nutrients

My best guess:

  • Technical threshold of IPC level 5 (2 deaths in 10K people) probably not met
  • Effects of declaration of the technical threshold met unclear. If the UN was widely respected and trusted, it could have been a Schelling point. Israel disputes it.

North Korea has a secret base near China with missiles that could reach the U.S., a new report from CSIS says

Massacres in eastern Congo cast doubt on U.S. mediated peace deal

Belarus says it is looking at how to arm its missile systems with nuclear warheads

Sweden to build more nuclear plants with US or UK technology

A Russian military drone crashed in Eastern Poland during the night, causing an explosion that residents reported but resulted in no injuries. Radar systems did not detect the drone

Russian military drone crashes and explodes in eastern Poland, defence minister says

Putin demands Ukraine quit Donbas, drop NATO plans in peace proposal

Italian police arrest Ukrainian man over Nord Stream pipeline attacks

This is a good point. I consider the above an early draft, with fewer signposts, mostly pointers to the primary sources I'm using, because The Motte can take it. Maybe you might derive other interpretations from the primary sources than what I am getting out of them. The final polished version, read by about 3K people, is here.

A Chinese navy ship collided with a Chinese coast guard vessel while pursuing a Philippines coast guard boat. Subsequently, China claimed to have expelled US warships from “Chinese territorial waters” in the South China Sea.

The link under "claimed" links to a more neutral source, because in this case it remarks:

Beijing has also pushed back what it calls infringement of its airspace and maritime waters by the US and its allies, while the latter claims it flies and sails its military assets in international airspace and waters.

Yes, I'm quoting Chinese military news

Thanks.

XD, thanks

Stuff I'm looking at this week:

Geopolitics

Americas

Court paves way for Trump to yank billions of dollars worth of foreign aid, concluding that aid groups lacked standing to bring the case.

US offers $5m bounty for Haitian warlord 'Barbecue'

Terrible health conditions at Alligator Alcatraz prison

US appeals court says Trump administration can cut billions in foreign aid

Europe

Musk chatbot Grok says it was 'censored' after suspension from X over Gaza posts

Children dying of hunger in Darfur's el-Fasher city

Attempted coup in Mali

Russia Has an Arsenal of New AI Drones Built with Smuggled Nvidia Chips (old news tho)

Zelenskyy: Ukraine won't cede land for peace amid US-Russia summit

European leaders unite behind Ukraine as Trump-Putin meeting nears

Europe says U.S. and Russia cannot decide on Ukraine land swaps at this week's summit

Migrants swim from Morocco to Ceuta as officials say enclave 'overwhelmed'

Middle East

Ireland intends to pass bill to ban the import of good from Israeli settlements despite US pressure

Iran

Where Next for Iran's Supreme Leader? Another review of his unstable grip on power.

Iran arrests 20 Mossad spies, executes nuclear scientist for providing classified information.

WWIII: Palantir CEO Alex Karp Says 3-Front War With Russia, China And Iran 'Very Likely'

Gaza

Israel strike kills Al Jazeera journalists in Gaza due to allegations of his leadership of a Hamas cell involved in rocket attacks.

Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly in talks with South Sudan to take Gazans

Gaza Sees Five Starvation Deaths in 24 Hours

11 more die from malnutrition in Gaza, Hamas-run health ministry says

Israel faces growing global condemnation over its plan to take over Gaza City

Gaza terrorists caught using emblem and vests of the World Central Kitchen.

'It's a horrible picture': Gaza faces new threat from antibiotic-resistant disease

Gaza health system 'catastrophic' with hospitals overwhelmed and medicines running out, WHO warns

Yemen

Yemen's Houthis say they launched 3 drone strikes inside Israel

Asia

Morning Brief: US Coast Guard Commissions First New Icebreaker in Over Two Decades; US, China Trade Accusations Over Panama Canal at UN Security Council

China's Chikungunya Outbreak Surpasses 10,000 Cases, Spreads to Taiwan

Chinese Authorities Mandating Blood Tests, Releasing Lab Mosquitoes to Fight Chikungunya Outbreak (although Epoch Times is not generally a reliable source)

A U.S. destroyer illegally entered the territorial waters of China's Huangyan Island; the Southern Theater Command lawfully and according to regulations warned and expelled it.

On August 13, Navy Colonel He Tiecheng, spokesperson for the Southern Theater Command of the People's Liberation Army, announced the unauthorized entry of the U.S. Navy destroyer "Higgins" into the territorial waters off Huangyan Island. This action was described as a serious violation of China’s sovereignty that undermines regional stability and breaches international law. The Southern Theater Command's naval forces responded by tracking, monitoring, and ultimately expelling the U.S. vessel to assert their legal authority and maintain security in the area.

Key points include the assertion that the U.S. military's activities threaten both China's sovereignty and the peace of the South China Sea. The Chinese naval forces remain vigilant and prepared to defend national interests, emphasizing a continual state of readiness against foreign military actions.

Bangladesh Braces For Potentially Devastating Dengue Outbreak As Cases Surge. The country has documented 101 deaths and over 24,183 infections so far this year

India/Pakistan

Australia To Recognise Palestinian State At UN In September

Germany invites Trump, Zelenskyy, NATO, EU leaders to virtual meeting before Trump-Putin summit

Indian court orders removal of thousands of stray dogs from Delhi region, responding to concerns about rabies. India is facing the highest rabies toll in the world, with approximately 5,700 deaths annually according to government statistics, while some estimates suggest numbers could be as high as 20,000. The stray dog population in Delhi has surged, increasing from 60,000 in 2012 to close to 1 million.

Africa

Over 2,500 cholera cases, 103 deaths recorded in Sudan's North Darfur

Nigeria Emerging As Hub For 22 Islamic Terror Groups

40 dead in Darfur as worst cholera outbreak hits Sudan

FYI there was a pretty terrible famine in Darfur in 1998

US approves potential $346 million weapons sale to Nigeria to bolster security

US imposes sanctions on Congo armed group, mining firms over illicit minerals

Tech and AI

OpenAI gold at the IOI

Some items I'm looking at this week:

Geopolitics

Americas

Trump and Putin to meet in coming days, Kremlin says

Haiti Armed Violence Kills Over 3,100 in 6 Months in 2025

National Weather Service to rehire after deep DOGE cuts – NBC 5 Dallas-Fort Worth

Some items from the Trump administration:

  • Excluding illegal immigrants from census?
  • Semiconductor tariffs announced, but extent unclear
  • 25% tariff on India over Russian oil imports

Europe

300 sick children from Gaza to be evacuated to the UK

Trump's Deadline For The Kremlin Looms But Putin Shows No Sign Of Making Concessions

Middle East

Hezbollah to treat Lebanon's disarmament decision 'as if it does not exist'

Hezbollah warns it will resume firing missiles at Israel if it ramps up operations in Lebanon

Iran

Iran sets up new defence council in wake of war with Israel

This is what Khameini losing power might look like?

Gaza

Jordan, Egypt, UAE deliver more humanitarian supplies to Gaza

Netanyahu says Israel intends to take control of all of Gaza (1:10), in order to, he says, liberate the people of Gaza from Hamas, and pass control over to a civilian government that is not calling for the destruction of Israel.

Israeli military chief opposes Gaza war expansion

Israel Security Cabinet Clears Netanyahu's Plan to Occupy Gaza City

'Occupy entire Gaza or resign': Netanyahu tells IDF chief, reports Israeli media as talks with Hamas stall

Over 1,000 packages airdropped over Gaza in 2 weeks-Xinhua

Indonesia to treat 2,000 injured Gazans on Galang island

China opposes Israel's 'dangerous' plan to occupy Gaza

How much aid has entered Gaza?

It doesn't actually do the math,

  • Higher end: 84 trucks per day * 90 m^3 per standard truck * 1000 liters per m^3 * 8000 kcal per liter (caloric density of oil) / 2.1M Gazans = 28,000 kcal per person per day

  • Lower end: 84 trucks per day * 18 m^3 per van * 75% full (?) * 1000 liters per m^3 * 700 kcal per liter (caloric density of grain) / 2.1M Gazans = 405 kcal per person per day

Can we get better bounds?

Yemen

Asia

Microsoft Used China-Based Engineers to Support Product Recently Hacked by China

Severe outbreak of mosquito-borne chikungunya virus infects 8,000 in China

Bird flu confirmed in six-year-old Cambodian girl

A series of reports witnessing the practice of the "steel arteries" serving the strengthening and prospering of the military in the new era. China integrates its railway system more with military logistics.

China looking into ways to disable the Starlink constellation

Chinese and Russian naval fleets complete maritime exercises, transition to joint sea patrol on August 6

Indonesia's Mount Lewotobi Laki Laki erupts again, spewing giant ash plumes miles away

China (potentially) Faces EU Sanctions over Secret Drone Shipments to Russia's Military

Bangladesh teeters between hope and deadlock a year after Hasina's fall

Mobile Internet blackout across Balochistan amid rising security threats

India/Pakistan

Bangladesh: 121 Killed, Over 5,000 Injured in 471 Political Violence Incidents Since Yunus Took Office

Africa

Sudan: El-Fasher faces famine as supplies cut off, UN says

Sudan accuses UAE of bringing in Colombian mercenaries to support RSF

Sudan military destroyed UAE plane carrying Colombian mercenaries

South-East Nigeria rocked by insecurity, healthcare crisis

Study finds militant Islamists have killed 22,307 in Africa over the last one year, gained significant territory

Islamists have killed over 22,300 in Africa this last year

Pentagon: U.S. Counterterrorism Efforts Have Failed Africans

African armies turn to drones with devastating civilian impact

Rwanda: Ceasefire in Doubt As Rwanda-Backed Rebels Kill Hundreds in Eastern DR Congo

Bio

Antibodies for Strep A

Ghana approves breakthrough malaria drug for babies — but research is 'on ice' amid US funding cuts

How mRNA Vaccine Cuts and Egg Dependency Leave the U.S. Exposed to a Bird Flu Pandemic

Tech and AI

Open Source release of gpt

Trying to steal TSMC trade secrets

Users who bonded with GPT-4o complaining it's going away

Global Economy

Trump tariffs on semiconductors

Misc

Associated Press Runs Sympathetic Story Checking On Hezbollah Terrorists Injured In 'Grim Beeper' Operation

Positive states of being are psychologically healthy

you can only be altruistic by improving yourself to be more than self-sufficient, so it's a kind of inverse parasitism.

mmmh!! top points, thanks

I mean, we want people to be prosocial, provide public goods, play cooperative games, coordinate around positive outcomes. But you don't want this to be suicidal. Not sure if that's just a restatement. of what you are saying.

You are making points without the knowledge of what is already been discussed on the topic. Go google "avoiding EA burnout" and you'll find a plenty of stuff on this front.

I think you are empirically wrong on this. E.g., if you go to one of the most upvoted such essays you will see my comment at the top. But it's been a while. Maybe there is much that I have forgotten.

strawmanning of EA in general

I think EA does have a fair share of pure altruists. I know of at least four people that have gone celibate over the last few years as a result of being too concentrated on their jobs (and I claim they could have had romantic success if they had chosen to). I think coordinating around "we are doing the most good" also has an easy attractor in pure altruism.

the Soviets did not rely on charitable giving to fund their efforts

The thing I was pointing at is that the job of the apparatchiks was to nominally be pure altruists towards the population of Russia as a whole, and this predictably failed.

There is a philosophical problem regarding whether pure altruism is conceptually possible; if you help someone, and you receive in exchange nothing but the satisfaction of having helped someone, then haven't you received something of value, thereby rendering the altruistic act "impure"? What if you don't even feel good about it, could it be pure then? But then, how were you motivated to help in the first place if you didn't even feel good about it? Regardless of how we answer these questions, I believe we can put the idea of absolute pure altruism to the side, because if it exists at all, it surely encompasses a minority of human interactions--source

I have a different perspective here, where a) I think it's conceptually possible, b) the interesting question is whether people who say they are are really only doing the pure altruism. I first encountered the term pure altruism in two papers by James Andreoni, from 1989 and 1990. In them, Andreoni lays out a model of altruistic giving, where agents contribute to a public good both because they value it in itself, but also because they get a private benefit, a "warm glow". He has some nice academic results, like a quick mechanism for indexing one's own altruism (if one was taxed one dollar less, or a thousand, how much more would one donate?), and other observations (taxation may not produce warm glow, and as a result increasing taxation by some amount doesn't reduce donations by that amount; when parents get a warm glow from giving to their children, children are incentivized to be more "spoilt" in a technical sense).

Are people who are saying they are doing pure forms of altruism actually doing so? Often not so. There are aspects of the EA community that just don't make sense by considering its participants as pure white cherubs of innocence and selflessness, although each particular case will be uncertain and ambiguous, and although pointing the discrepancy is tricky.

One of the biggest bets Open Philanthropy—a large philanthropic foundation I'm acquainted with—is making is in its own people. 161 people, earning say 150K to 250K salaries, with overhead of 20% to 40% (?) is 30M to 52M/year—probably higher than any one of their grants in 2024 and 2025. This does not include the cost of their office, another cool 16.5M. This leads them to have a class interest: they are invested in that form of doing philanthropy—rather than anonymous part-time rotating grantmakers whose funds under management grow or shring depending on their evaluated success (like the Survival and Flourishing Fund).

Trotsky's The Revolution Betrayed outlines how this happened with the apparatchik in Russia. The apparatchik are in charge of the wellbeing of the Soviet Union and ended up reallocating ressources to themselves. Some of my experience is that the grantmakers just want to be sucked up to, their ideas confirmed, their egos upheld, their strategies validated, their personalities admired. But at the same time they are selected for not rocking the boat in a deep way. More mundanely, people get grants from projects that don't work out, and don't pivot, because they think that would involve losing their jobs. EA seems like a failed Schelling point to me, because it advertises itself as doing pure altruism, but the actors end up fighting for their own self-interest, sometimes in quite obvious ways.

Is pure altruism selected out? If you do something for someone such that you don't get something out of it, can you continue doing that into the future? What is the mechanism? I think this is a key question that leads to rederiving some form of non-naïve form of altruism. Or alternatively, it leads to exploiting the pure altruism until its ressources are exhausted. One of the first guys to think about this ended up killing himself.

On the other side, pure altruism can be understood essentially as a mating display because it's a costly signal of strength, and it. The underlying purpose of ideology X isn't ideology X, it's displaying that you can still be a well-adjusted person even with its iron around your neck. Some version of this is fine by me, but the problem becomes when people really believe their ideologies and do cripple themselves for real, as happened with Germany's industrial economy as a result of their terrible energy policy. This matters to me, I made a heavily real, non-fake investment in learning German. I passed the C1 exam but probably at some point did have a C2 level in German. Now I just do business with Americans instead. I also do find it aesthetically distasteful when people do something which is nominally about, e.g., helping the homeless in a way that makes the problem worse, partly because nobody taught me how to do the Straussian reading.

At the same time, how do you coordinate around public goods? One cool answer is dominant assurance contracts but in practice this hasn't been implemented much, perhaps because the people who could have jobs as grantmakers they would rather preserve, but also because part of the problem of setting up a new project is just distribution, and you have a chicken an egg problem here (you could do a dominant assurance funding model if only you had already built the distribution funnel for your thing, but that's a big part of the job).

Anyways one answer here is to try to get people in man vs. nature games because man v. man conflicts are just fucked up.

The forum was one that was trying really hard to be heterogenous in terms of opinions and also to be nice and moderating it was a nightmare ... A: Here's the troll who comes by only to post egregiously offensive "go kill yourself [list of slurs]",

B: Here's the more subtle troll, who keeps toeing the line as much as he can get away with.

C: here's the user who is not a troll. They actually do participate in discussion and are clearly trying to be a part of the community. They're also abrasive and/or obnoxious and/or inflammatory.

D: And then here's the final type of user that's problematic as a mod: They're a sensitive snowflake. Honestly they need to be sub-divided further, because some of them are just born snowflakes that can't handle any opposition to their viewpoint at all, and others are retaliatory snowflakes, because if I got a ban for three days for saying this opinion is dumb then that guy also needs to get a ban for three days for saying this other opinion is dumb.

I had a similar experience. From your perspective I would have been C or D. From my perspective, the moderators were Dolores Umbridge equivalents, trying to keep the appearance of legitimate discourse but also not really being able to take legitimate challenges to the sensitive consensus. Eventually I just left when enough Bs left as well.

Some items I'm looking at this week, as always provided on a best-effort basis.

Geopolitics

Americas

Drug cartel operatives from Mexico and Colombia joined the International Legion in Ukraine to gain experience with first person view drone usage.

Trump says Russia has '10 days from today' to end Ukraine war, or face penalties

Europe

UK threatens to recognize Palestine as a state

UK prisoners are bringing goods into jail via drone

Niger signs a nuclear cooperation deal with Russia

Chikungunya spreads from Indian Ocean islands

Spain and Greece are facing a health alert due to rising cases of Crimean Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF), an illness with a mortality rate of about 30%

Middle East

Gaza

Israeli military announces 'tactical pause' to Gaza attacks amid mounting global pressure

At least 46 Palestinians killed by Israeli fire in Gaza, officials say, as hunger crisis grinds on

Aid trucks resume flow from Egypt to Gaza via Rafah crossing for 3rd consecutive day

Trump's envoy meets Netanyahu for Gaza aid push

Testimony of a former employee of the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation paints them as deliverately shooting into crowds.

Marjorie Taylor Greene labels Israel's actions as genocide

Egypt, UAE, Jordan airdrop aid over Gaza

Israeli army says 52 aid packages airdropped in Gaza

Famine threshold reached in Gaza

Yemen

Yemen's Houthis said on Sunday they would target any ships belonging to companies that do business with Israeli ports, regardless of their nationalities

Asia

Canada intends to recognise a Palestinian state in September

Taiwan is building up its drone capacity (but reporting doesn't point out how they will just be built by China)

Africa

Militant islamic groups have reportedly killed 155K people over the last decade

Cholera outbreaks in Africa

Attacks in Kordofan states (Sudan) cause hundreds of deaths, mass displacement and the collapse of essential services

Cholera Rampant Among Displaced and Refugees in Darfur and Eastern Chad

Bio

"Article looking at AI drug discovery. Much has been made about the potential for AI to produce pandemics, but they also make defense easier.

Tech and AI

Hierarchical reasoning might be a new architecture that does better.

New powerful open source models

Here is how the weekly review ended:

  • Geopolitical risks: Thailand and Cambodia exchanged fire, and Thailand sent some F-16s into Cambodia, but a ceasefire has already been reached. Israel is being accused of causing mass starvation in Gaza by the WHO and others. Zelensky faced his first large-scale domestic protests over a law weakening the independence of anti-corruption bodies.
  • Economy and trade: The US and the EU reached a trade deal that would tariff EU goods coming into America at 15%. A similar agreement was reached between the US and Japan, which will now also face 15% tariffs on its goods exported to the US.
  • Biorisks: A paper reports a method for genetically editing mosquitoes to make them resistant to malaria in a way that can be transmitted to subsequent generations, and a method for driving such mutations into mosquito populations. H5N1 continues to pose an ongoing risk.
  • AI: The White House published an extensive AI Action Plan, which seeks to accelerate investment and buildout and espouses a framework of a race against China, while also recognizing some potential dangers from AI and including some recommendations for research on controllability and safety. Anthropic is embroiled in a new trial over pirating IP; forecasters assign a 68% chance that the case will reach a jury trial, and a 56% chance that $1.5B damages will be awarded conditional on losing a trial, but only a 1.1% chance that Anthropic will be out of business by the end of 2026 as a result of the trial.
  • Gray swans: None detected this week.

Some items I'm looking at this week:

Geopolitics

Europe

Belarus threatens to shift Zapad-2025 military drills closer to NATO border

Spain participated in a Latvia NATO exercise.

Israel is accused of 'mass starvation' as 100 charities blast aid blockade: At least ten people 'die of malnutrition' in 24 hours

Gaza faces 'man-made' mass starvation due to Israeli aid blockade, World Health Organization says

Russia |launches| major military exercise 'july storm' in the Baltic Sea

Middle East

US looking into reports American citizen killed in Syria's Suwayda

Syria evacuates Bedouin from Druze-majority city

Iran

Donald Trump warns that US could strike Iran's nuclear sites again 'if necessary'

Iran says nuclear program will recover after US-Israel strikes

Iran says it will continue uranium enrichment despite U.S. strikes on nuclear facilities

Fires in Iran; Iran accussed Israel of sabotage

Gaza

Belgian King slams Gaza killings as 'disgrace to humanity' (ironic)

Asia

China starts construction of world’s biggest hydropower dam in Tibet; could dwarf Three Gorges Dam

China is acquiring high-end weapons systems and equipment 5–6X faster than the United States

Thailand |deploys fighter jets| as border clashes erupt with Cambodia

Tensions between Thailand and Cambodia have escalated following a significant military confrontation, where Thai fighter jets targeted Cambodian military| installations, representing one of the most serious conflicts in recent years. This escalation was precipitated by a prior incident in which a Thai soldier was injured by a landmine near the disputed border area, further straining relations that have long been marred by territorial disputes. Reports of direct clashes between troops from both nations and resulting civilian injuries have intensified fears of broader hostilities.

Thailand Deploys Fighter Jets as Border Clashes Erupt with Cambodia

Thai and Cambodian forces clash at border

Africa

Mozambican Opposition Leader Venancio Mondlane Charged Amid Tensions Over Post-Election Unrest – Medafrica Times

At least 1,000 people killed in a day South Sudan Ethnic Clashes

Cholera and other epidemics are side effects of endless war in Sudan

Mozambique seeks to prosecute opposition leader over post-election unrest

Bio

Scientists resurrected the 1918 “Spanish Flu” virus

Tech and AI

US nuclear weapons agency reportedly breached in Microsoft SharePoint attacks

Starlink is down

Chinese hackers breach US Nuclear Agency in Microsoft SharePoint cyberattack

This looks like a really good piece, although we'll see what the commentariat comes up with. But, how would you feel about picking some of that to use on my Sentinel brief?

Strongly in favor. In particular, if you become good at it it's a good chip to impress people with. I've also found it a good way to dump my need for cognition when needed.

Should have been https://www.chinatalk.media/p/xi-rumors , thanks

Relatively quiet week this time:

Anthropic has a $200M contract with the US DoD , as have a few other companies

A good roundup of rumours about Xi

OpenAI agent

Israel bombs Syria

Africa records over 4,200 cholera, mpox deaths in 2025

Gunmen Kill 1,111 Nigerians, Abduct 276 in June

Syrian troops accused of executing civilians in Druze amid Israeli strikes

IDF Ordered To Strike Syrian Regime Forces Invading Druze-majority Suweida

Syria Druze reach ceasefire with central gov, though a previous one fell. Israel also fired on the central gov in Damascus

They have been negotiating with the Islamist-led authorities in Damascus since the fall of Bashar al-Assad in an attempt to achieve autonomy but have yet to reach an agreement that defines their relationship with the new Syrian state. ...reports The Guardian. Btw, the Spanish federal system, where the central government defines foreign policy, and some formerly rebellious provinces (the Basque country) don't pay federal taxes and have special priviledges (fueros) could be a good model here.

Almost 300 killed in wave of violence in Sudan's North Kordofan

Israeli-linked ringleaders and elements arrested in southwestern Iran, says Iran's news agency

Israel launches airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon's Bekaa valley

US demands to know what allies would do in event of war over Taiwan

the ADIZ extends like a rectangle up into China proper

Thanks, I didn't know that!

My impression is that the numbers you are mention... aren't that high; Israel is probably willing to spend many more of its own lives in this conflict.

For reference, if we adjust the 150K to 500K deaths[^1] from Russia's war in Ukraine from Russia's population of 143M to Israel's population of 9.757M, we get 10K to 34K, and remember that we are talking about deaths here. So there is room for a 10x here easily.

This doesn't really speak to your point of whether Hamas' fighting capabilities have been degraded. But Israel has been fighting a war with many fronts, in which Iran has been taken out of the picture, Hezbollah has been disabled in Lebanon. Recently the Israeli army claimed that they had operational control of 65% of Gaza, which is congruent with your perspective.

[^1]: Recent reports say 1M dead or injured, but use the confusing term "casualties" for this, to make it look bigger.

Some items I'm looking at this week:

OpenAI to release web browser

Nearly 700 civilians killed in Israeli attacks on Iran

The new Bangladeshi government has an audio recording of the previous leader, Sheikh Hasina, ordering her forces to use lethal force. They will use this in her trial.

Hamas gives 'positive' response to 60-day ceasefire proposal but says talks needed on implementation

Russia allegedly field-testing deadly AI drone powered by Nvidia Jetson Orin

Israel launches new ground incursion in Lebanon, raising fears for truce

Trump Ups Criticism Of Putin As He Releases Weapons, Considers Sanctions

No fewer than 500 Israelis killed in conflict with Iran — Iranian parliament speaker

Church leaders: It's time for Nigeria's Christians to defend themselves – Catholic World Report

Supreme court clears way for Trump to mass fire federal workers

Former Bangladesh police chief admits to crimes against humanity amid crackdown trial

Yemeni armed forces hit Ben Gurion airport, other Israeli targets with drones, missiles

Yemen's Ansarullah pledges sleepless nights for zionists after terrorist 'israeli' incursion

Gaza ceasefire talks begin in Qatar amid ongoing tensions

Iran president Masoud Pezeshkian says Israel attempted to assassinate him

Trump claimed victory against the Houthis in fight over Red Sea shipping. Now they are sinking tankers again

What to know as Yemen's Houthi rebels launch new attacks on ships in the Red Sea

Climate change made Europe's heatwave up to 4C hotter

Climate change tripled recent heat deaths in Europe, scientists say

North Korea quietly building chemical weapons for combat

China provided real-time intelligence to Pakistan during a recent conflict with India, according to India's Deputy Army Chief.

As bird flu evolves, keeping it out of farm flocks is getting harder

First round of indirect Israel-Hamas talks ends inconclusively, 'situation in Gaza likely remains grim for foreseeable future'

South Sudan's worst and longest cholera outbreak enters critical stage

India admits heavy losses in 'operation sindoor', to posthumously honour 100 soldiers

Iran Fatwa Fundraiser to Kill Donald Trump Raises Over $40 Million

[Iran International] |reported| that Mansour Emami, another cleric in Iran's West Azerbaijan Province, announced a reward of 100 billion tomans ($1.14 million) for anyone who killed Trump.

Israel defence minister plans to move Gaza's population to camp

Israel's Defence Minister has directed the military to devise a plan for relocating all Palestinians in Gaza to the southern territory, with plans for a 'humanitarian city' to accommodate around 600,000 initially, potentially growing to house the entire population. The relocation aims to secure the area against potential Hamas operatives, operating under a proposed ceasefire for construction. This proposal has been met with strong condemnation from human rights advocates and warnings from the UN regarding the legal implications of forcibly transferring civilians, which is classified as ethnic cleansing.

Iran's government says at least 1,060 people were killed in the war with Israel – The Frontier Post

Tribunal indicts Sheikh Hasina (in absentia)

Death Toll in Kenya's Anti-Government Protests Rises to 31

Haiti death toll hits nearly 5,000 in nine months as gang violence spreads

"Hong Kong citizens felt immensely proud visiting the Shandong aircraft carrier group."

The US military will test a "Joint War Zone Distribution Center" in Australia.

General Ronald Clark, Commander of the U.S. Army Pacific, announced during the 'Protector's Blade' exercise that the Army is testing a new logistics capability in Australia aimed at efficiently prepositioning equipment and supplies in the Pacific theater. This initiative supports the military's strategic readiness for potential long-term operations, focusing on establishing 'Joint Theater Distribution Centers' that can be crucial during military conflicts, humanitarian missions, or natural disasters.

These distribution centers are set to be established across the Pacific region, with the Army currently managing centers in the Philippines and Australia. The exercise, which involves around 35,000 troops from 19 countries, serves as a platform for developing logistics capabilities and testing the Army's new 'Mid-Range Capability' missile system, the 'Typhoon.' Clark highlighted the necessity of these centers to mitigate logistical challenges and emphasized their essential attributes, which include operational port capabilities and storage for various supplies.

Unusual USAF and Space Force Drills Near Taiwan

UN reports 798 deaths near Gaza aid hubs amid ongoing conflict

Hamas agrees to release 10 hostages during Gaza peace talks

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) reported that it currently exercises operational control over 65 percent of the Gaza Strip.

European heatwave caused 2,300 deaths, scientists estimate

Europe's freak back-to-back heat-domes killed 2,300 in eight days with temperatures 'reaching 48C', study finds

Here is a list of all the worrying things that China has done over the last year or so, as detected by my forecasting team, Sentinel. Not quite sure what I should do with this.

This is a good bit, thanks :)