The linked post seeks to outline why I feel uneasy about high existential risk estimates from AGI (e.g., 80% doom by 2070). When I try to verbalize this, I view considerations like
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selection effects at the level of which arguments are discovered and distributed
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community epistemic problems, and
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increased uncertainty due to chains of reasoning with imperfect concepts
as real and important.
I'd be curious to get perspectives form the people of the Motte, e.g., telling me that I'm the crazy one & so on.
Regards,
Nuño.
Highlights:
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PredictIt nears its probable demise
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American Civics Exchange offers political betting to Americans using weird legal loophole
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Forecasting community member Avraham Eisenberg arrested for $100M+ theft
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Forecasting Research Institute launches publicly
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Blogpost suggests that GiveWell use uncertainty, wins $20k
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Contrarian offers $500k bet, then chickens out
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Walter Frick writes a resource to introduce journalists to prediction markets
Highlights
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Nuclear probability estimates spiked and spooked Elon Musk.
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Council on Strategic Risks hiring for a full-time Strategic Foresight Senior Fellow @ $78k to 114k
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Markov Chain Monte Carlo Without all the Bullshit: Old blog post delivers on its title.
Highlights:
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PredictIt vs Kalshi vs CFTC saga continues
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Future Fund announces $1M+ prize for arguments which shift their probabilities about AI timelines and dangers
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Dan Luu looks at the track record of futurists
Highlights
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CFTC asking for public comments about allowing Kalshi to phagocytize PredictIt’s niche
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$25k tournament by Richard Hanania on Manifold Markets.
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pastcasting.com allows users to forecast on already resolved questions with unknown resolutions which hopefully results in faster feedback loops and faster learning
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Hedgehog Markets now have automatic market-maker-based markets
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Jonas Moss looks at updating just on the passage of time
I'd prefer comments or questions here on account of themotte.org site being pretty young. Long live The Motte!
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