NunoSempere
No bio...
User ID: 1101
NunoSempere
14d ago
Most vaccine candidates against bird flu are reliant on fucking eggs for production. It's kind of a good idea to use mrna.
Oh noe.
NunoSempere
16d ago
If living hostages could be divided up I'm sure they'd try that.
A 25% chance of giving back a hostage as decided by two fair coin throws by the Patriarch of Moscow
NunoSempere
16d ago
Some headlines for discussion:
4 Palestinians die after the storming of a UN food warehouse in Gaza. A distribution center from a group that agreed to work with Israeli restrictions meant to prevent aid being diverted or controlled by Hamas was also overrun. The head of this later group also resigned
Iran may pause enrichment for a year and ship off its highly enriched uranium in exchange for the US to recognize its right to enrich uranium for its civilian energy program and unfreeze funds.
Israel receives new U.S.-backed Gaza truce proposal: state media-Xinhua
Malta announces plan to officially recognize Palestine
Cholera outbreak in Sudan kills 172 in one week
Amnesty says over 10,000 killed in two years in Nigeria
Trump used offers of trade access to broker India-Pakistan ceasefire, claims U.S. Commerce Secretary
Eric Schmidt warns against China bombing US datacenters
UK announces $1B investment in cyber warfare
Ethiopia reports first mpox case
Trump admin cancels $766M in funding for moderna.
NunoSempere
19d ago
Thanks!
NunoSempere
21d ago
Geopolitics
Americas
US launched its second ICBM test this year
Africa
Christians in Africa are being prosecuted somewhat systematically, particularly in northern Nigeria by Boko Haram. "In 2024 alone, over 4,500 Christians in 12 countries across the Sahel region were killed for their faith, 114,000 Christians forcibly displaced, 16,000 homes destroyed, and over 1,700 churches impacted"
Sudan's army chief names former UN official as new prime minister
U.S. will impose sanctions on Sudan for using chemical weapons
Middle East
Russia's Hmeimim airbase in Syria is under attack. I remember thinking that Lisa thought this was important
Iran
Israel 'preparing strike on Iran's nuclear facilities'
Oil prices rise on signs of faltering U.S.-Iran nuclear talks
U.S. media reports: Should U.S.-Iran nuclear talks fail, Israel is prepared to quickly strike Iranian nuclear facilities.
Gaza
14,000 babies could die in Gaza within 48 hours without aid: UN
Israel allowed some aid into Gaza
Britain, Canada, France condemn Israel's blocking of aid in Gaza, threaten sanctions
Gaza reports 326 malnutrition deaths, more than 300 miscarriages due to lack of essentials
New Gaza offensive
Yemen
Yemen's Houthis target Israel's Ben Gurion Airport, 3rd missile strike in 24 hours
Houthis declare naval blockade of Haifa port
Asia
China is integrating civil and military networks. "By connecting high-tech enterprises and facilitating data-driven collaborations, the platform accelerates the matching of military needs with available resources, resulting in timely and effective responses to various challenges. The platform features a comprehensive database that includes over ten thousand high-tech companies, hundreds of thousands of skilled personnel"
United States Develops "Orbital Aircraft Carriers" Endangering Space Safety, says China
Accelerate the building of China's independent military knowledge system. Another article in a similar vein as above.
China says ready to boost military-to-military ties with Russia
MEMRI warning about "China's Imminent Invasion Of Taiwan"
House Select Committee Warns: "The Window to Deter War with China is Closing Fast"
Oropuche virus rapidly spreading in Latin America; over 20K infected individuals ince late 2023
Riding the Waves! Full Throttle Live Fire Drill with Missile Speedboats
A squadron of missile boats from the Navy of the Eastern Theater Command has recently engaged in a comprehensive live-fire training exercise. This high-intensity session included a variety of drills such as maritime search and rescue operations, fleet patrols, and missile attack simulations, all aimed at enhancing the operational combat skills of the soldiers involved.
The training took place around the clock and involved multi-subject scenarios, systematically validating and improving the readiness of the naval forces for potential maritime combat situations.
India/Pakistan
3/4th of India's population at 'high' to 'very high' heat risk: CEEW study
Airlines Prepare for Nuclear War
Europe
Poland intervenes after Russian 'shadow fleet' ship detected near Baltic Sea cable
Russia stops Greek tanker leaving Estonia in tit-for-tat Baltic move
Bio
A paper in Nature looks at an outbreak of multidrug-resistant dysentery from 2021 to 2023 in Mexico
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has called for increased American involvement and support for the Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)-led administration in Syria to prevent its potential collapse
Study shows that the 2022 mpox outbreak started in 2014
Tech and AI
xAI’s Grok 3 comes to Microsoft Azure
VEO 3 generates some pretty nifty videos
veo3 is a new model by Google that is able to create convincing (and addictive) video
Misc
Chances of a mega-tsunami hitting California about 15% over the next 50 years?
Also covered here
Briefing to the UN on the state of the protection of civilians in armed conflict
Netanyahu press conference
NunoSempere
26d ago
Here is the more polished "global risks brief" my team creates from the items above (and others). The executive summary is:
Moody’s downgraded the US credit rating as the US budget deficit grows and US borrowing costs rise. House Republicans are advancing a budget that would increase the deficit further. Meanwhile, China is reducing its holdings of US Treasuries and its dependencies on foreign components in its supply chains as it seeks to de-risk its economy from the US and the West.
Google announced a new coding agent, AlphaEvolve, that has creative problem-solving abilities. Gulf states agreed to more than $1T in US investments and joint enterprises during a visit by Trump to the Middle East, including joint AI ventures. Forecasters estimated a 28% chance (range, 25-30%) that the US will pass a 10-year ban on states regulating AI by the end of 2025.
Negotiations between the US and Iran continue. Iran has signaled willingness to limit uranium enrichment and allow inspections in exchange for sanctions being lifted. Forecasters estimated that there is a 46% chance (range, 40%-50%) that the US and Iran will sign an agreement about Iran’s nuclear program by the end of August.
The ceasefire between India and Pakistan is holding. The Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in Turkey has officially disbanded. Israel has launched a new, major offensive in Gaza. Putin did not attend the first direct ceasefire talks with Ukraine since early in the war.
NunoSempere
26d ago
I thought this thread was illuminating; thanks all
NunoSempere
27d ago
The issue is that it no matter how many kms of regions Russia wants to demand the ukrainians turn over without fighting, it will still be in the Ukrainian interest to make Russia pay the resources they are willing to spend fighting km by km, rather than let Russia have both kms and the resources to conquer more.
Oooh, this makes sense, thanks
NunoSempere
30d ago
Some headlines below for your consideration, focused on risks. The high level overview is that Trump's Middle East trip is going well, India/Pakistan situation not that worrying. I was also surprised that the PKK announced its disbandment. Generally things seem less tense than a couple weeks ago.
Satellite images show Russian military buildup near Finnish border
Cotton Introduces Bill to Prevent Diversion of Advanced Chips to America’s Adversaries and Protect U.S. Product Integrity
Kurdish militant group, PKK decides to disband and end armed struggle with Turkiye
On May 14, a formation of Chinese Coast Guard vessels patrolled the territorial waters around my Diaoyu Islands.
PM Modi outlines harder stance against terrorists. Says that any terrorist attack on India will be met with a strong and decisive response; that India will not tolerate "nuclear blackmail" and will respond with precise strikes; that there will be no distinction between terrorist groups and their sponsors
Türkiye Says It Is Closely Monitoring PKK Disbandment to Secure Peace
Did Pakistan agree to ceasefire after IAF bombed nuclear assets in Kairana Hills? Did it cause leak of radiation?
Iran 'ready to make nuclear concessions'
Amazon will work with AI company recently launched by Saudi Arabia’s ruler to invest upwards of $5 billion-plus in building an AI Zone in Saudi Arabia
Genocide in Syria: Jihadists Massacre Druze, Christians, 'Infidels'
Nvidia sending 18,000 of its top AI chips to Saudi Arabia
Trump, Saudis secure $600B investment deal to include billions in US defense weapons
Similar to a 600B number earlier this year
Taiwan military conducts its first live-fire test of American-made HIMARS, military expert says: its survivability is very fragile.
Nigerian state, Borno, with 6M people, bans the sale of petrol in order to reduce the mobility of jihadist militants
EU finalizes 17th sanctions package targeting Russia's shadow fleet and defense sector
German police arrest three men over alleged Russian parcel bomb plot
Inside Putin's New Kill Squad: Russian Dictator Launches 'KGB 2.0'
Amid beating from India, Baloch rebels also claim 71 attacks on Pakistani forces
No radiation leak from any nuclear facility in Pakistan, says IAEA amid buzz after Indian claims
Macron open to deploying French nuclear weapons in Europe
Estonia tried to detain vessel from Russia's shadow fleeet, did not succeed
NunoSempere
1mo ago
I applied for an org that was 50% the same objective 50% emergency response. I am very unlikely to join FRI so they do a good job; if I quit my current thing I'm more likely to go into the private sector
NunoSempere
1mo ago
The stated reason was that at the time we also had an emergency response team, which reportedly was less of a fit for forecasting specifically. The actual reason is complicated/less discernable, but I get the feeling that they took a look at me and said: nah.
NunoSempere
1mo ago
I am very frustrated at this $10M grant. I think I could do the part about "foundational research into the methodological challenges of existential risk forecasts, as well as applied research on estimating such risks, and on the identification of early warning signals" well, if not better. In fact I have been obsessing about that cluster of problems for the last several years. Yet I was rejected by the organization making the grant a few months ago. Feels bad man.
NunoSempere
1mo ago
My roundup for last week:
- India and Pakistan have agreed to a ceasefire, and despite initial breaches, it now seems to be holding.
- The Trump administration and China agreed to reduce tariffs for 90 days while talks continue. Markets rejoiced.
- The Trump administration continues to look into ending due process for immigrants to be deported and is making arrangements to deport undocumented immigrants to many countries around the world.
- Israel is set to start a major operation in Gaza soon.
- The nonprofit OpenAI will retain control of the for-profit arm after restructuring.
NunoSempere
1mo ago
Thanks!
NunoSempere
1mo ago
ranked quite highly on PopePredictor
Do you have a link?
NunoSempere
1mo ago
Prediction markets didn't see itn coming, which I thought was interesting.
NunoSempere
1mo ago
Yes but it needs taste. Go is nicer than C, python is nicer than perl and bash and php. Command line apps are blazingly fast.
Slack is built upon a tower of abstractions and it does have more functionality than IRC. It could have been better but the tower of abstractions means it was created faster.
NunoSempere
2mo ago
Cleaned up version of this comment into a brief here: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/global-risks-weekly-roundup-152025
NunoSempere
2mo ago
Yes, which is why it's interesting that he has backpedaled on this.
NunoSempere
2mo ago
I'm also curious about to what extent he changed his mind vs got pressured to make noises he doesn't agree with.
NunoSempere
2mo ago
News on my mind this week:
Trump/China trade war intensifying. S&P 500 breaks. I was regretting not buying the dip. Trump/China trade war intensifying
Trump threatens Iran if talks don't go well
Iran and the US having talks on the nuclear file through Omani mediation
Satellite imagery shows US aircraft carrier in proximity to Iran
90% of Rafah's residential neighborhoods destroyed by Israel, Gaza authorities say
Trump to not prosecute crypto fraud
Treasury imposes sanctions on enablers of Iran's nuclear program
New Sanctions Targeting Iran's Nuclear Program (another gov source)
Israel would be 'leader' of strike if Iran doesn't give up nuclear weapons program, Trump warns
Israel's Ambassador Expelled from African Union Conference Amid Tensions Over Gaza Conflict
Israel's Smotrich says 'not even a grain of wheat' will enter Gaza
B-2 Stealth Bombers Deployed To Diego Garcia Have Been Striking Targets In Yemen
Houthis attack US and Israeli forces, mostly ineffectively
INDOPACOM boss warns PLA is conducting 'dress rehearsals' for Taiwan invasion
Taiwan fears that PLA drills may escalate into real attack 'with no time to respond'
US to revoke all South Sudan visas over failure to accept repatriation of citizens: Rubio
Zelensky says at least 155 Chinese citizens are fighting for Russia in Ukraine
Bangladeshi court sends 70 pro-Awami League lawyers to jail, on seemingly trumped up charges
Ethiopia on the brink of war?
Is War Between Ethiopia, Eritrea Brewing In Tigray?
US producing new nuclear weapons faster
Squirrels might be natural reservoirs for mpox
RFK Jr. endorses measles, mumps and rubella vaccine
Petraeus: A US strike on Iran wouldn’t stop at nuclear sites
US Space Command wants orbital weapons for 'space superiority'
Republika Srpska, the Serbian part of Bosnia , might try to secede again and join Serbia.
Islamic terrorists kill over 300 villagers in Burkina Faso
NunoSempere
2mo ago
Mmmh, thanks.
the voluntary come from very poor regions and receive significant sign on bonuses.
Is this still true? My sense is also that they were also mislead/pressured.
NunoSempere
2mo ago
I don't know, but these are good questions.
NunoSempere
2mo ago
The big item this week seems like the Trump tariffs. Smoot-Hawley tariffs contributed to the start of ww2 and the deaths of tens of millions of people, says a friend. An argument in favor is that the numbers aren't meant to be taken literally not seriously, and are just there to force a negotiation. The initial formula seems pretty straightforwardly wrong (it disincentivizes e.g., Vietnam sweatshops from producing clothes for cheap). I liked this piece from Varoufakis defending what he views as Trump's plan. I'd particularly welcome steelmen and defenses of the tariffs.
Besides that, a rough list of items I've caught, particularly focused on things that could pose large risks (if you want a cleaner version of this you can check here in a couple of days):
Cholera epidemic claims over 300 lives, spread to 16 out of the country's 21 provinces.
Chinese scientific research/spy ship spotted off coast of South Australia
China Eastern Theater Command Releases Military Operation Themed Poster "Closing In"
Mali, Burkina, Niger foreign ministers due in Moscow for talks
At least 322 children killed and 609 injured in Gaza following breakdown of ceasefire: UNICEF
Hamas agrees to release five hostages in renewed ceasefire, Israel counters
Iran threatens to develop nuke weapons should U.S. attack
An adviser to Iran's supreme leader warned on Monday that if the United States or Israel were to attack Iran under the pretext of nuclear concerns, the country would be compelled to pursue the development of nuclear weapons, according to the official news agency IRNA.
Israel issues wide-ranging evacuation order for southern Gaza
UN Agency Closes Its Remaining Gaza Bakeries Amid Israel's Ongoing Aid Blockade
ARMED Forces of the Philippines (AFP) Chief of Staff General Romeo Brawner has directed the Northern Luzon Command (Nolcom) to prepare for the possible invasion of Taiwan.
China 'closes in' on Taiwan with large-scale military drills
China Launches Large-Scale Military Drills Around Taiwan
Chinese forces encircle Taiwan on three sides during drills - World
Military chief says Philippines 'inevitably' involved if Taiwan invaded
Google deepmind AI strategy
China large-scale drills
Some incredibly dumb tariff maths
Another Chinese military poster
https://imgmil.gmw.cn/attachement/png/site2/20250402/f44d305ea6dd2956e78044.png
Military drills response to separatism, mainland official says
All bakeries supported by World Food Program in Gaza closed due to lack of flour, fuel
Israel hails Hungary's decision to exit International Criminal Court
Israel's Netanyahu says army to establish new security corridor in Gaza
The Eastern Theater Command has organized forces from the army, navy, air force, and other branches to conduct joint exercises around Taiwan Island.
US opposes China's military exercises around Taiwan, warns against 'destabilizing behavior'. Back in the day they would have done a freedom of navigation exercise
Sudan's RSF confirms retreat from Khartoum, eyes 'stronger' return
A NYT investigations reveals that at times, the US was running the back office of the war for Ukraine. It also tells a story of envious Ukranian generals leading to incompetent counteroffensives. (summary here)
a New York Times investigation |reveals| that America was woven into the war far more intimately and broadly than previously understood. At critical moments, the partnership was the backbone of Ukrainian military operations that, by U.S. counts, have killed or wounded more than 700,000 Russian soldiers. (Ukraine has put its casualty toll at 435,000.) Side by side in Wiesbaden’s mission command center, American and Ukrainian officers planned Kyiv’s counteroffensives. A vast American intelligence-collection effort both guided big-picture battle strategy and funneled precise targeting information down to Ukrainian soldiers in the field.
One European intelligence chief recalled being taken aback to learn how deeply enmeshed his N.A.T.O. counterparts had become in Ukrainian operations. “They are part of the kill chain now,” he said.
Putin plans to conscript 160,000 more Russians for war with Ukraine
British Columbia man, Mohammad Jawaid Aziz, accused in conspiracy to obtain US technology for Pakistan's nuclear weapon's program
Construction of private bunkers in Spain rises 200% as fears of war in Europe grow
Germany stationing troops in Lithuania, and considering conscription
Two-year-old girl from Andhra Pradesh, India, has died after contracting H5N1 bird flu
Mpox activity in Africa on pace to pass 2024 total. Inconsistent with reporting from the WHO last week about cases waning
I generally don't like to report on announcements, but: OpenAI plans to release open-weight language model in coming months
Some news items this week:
AI generated video might be directly optimizable for attention, in a way that is more scary than Tiktok
Statement from U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick on Transforming the U.S. AI Safety Institute into the Pro-Innovation, Pro-Science U.S. Center for AI Standards and Innovation
^ Sad day for black swans
AI required by court order to save logs?
Chinese couple charged with smuggling a biological pathogen into the U.S.
Floods in Nigeria kill over 150 people
Iran FM preparing response to potential nuclear agreement, holds call with IAEA head.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Rejects U.S. Nuclear Deal Offer
Interesting brief, similar to Sentinel
Israel strikes Syria after projectiles fired, holds Sharaa responsible
China's 'Silent Hunter' laser gun shooting down Ukrainian drones
US Simulates Missile Strikes on Warships at China Choke Point
'Corpses rotting in the Nile' as cholera tears through Sudan – Dominican Republic Post
Sudan's New PM Dissolves Caretaker Government One Day After Taking Office
Death toll in Nigeria jumps past 200
Ukraine and Russia agree to swap dead, wounded troops but report no progress toward ending war
'Balochistan, KP remain epicentres as Pakistan records 85 attacks in May'
'New red line': India, Pak generals exchange warnings at Shangri-La
Al-Qaida affiliate attacks Mali army bases as junta struggles to contain jihadist threat
Indonesia's health ministry issues warning over COVID-19 surge in Asia
Niger Flood: Death toll rises to 150, Tinubu asks NEMA to activate Emergency Response Centre
Trump Asks Congress to Rescind $8.3 Billion in Foreign Assistance
Trump on Musk
Elon and Trump fighting
Who detected vaccine-derived polio in samples from children in Morobe (Papua New Guinea)
US vetoes UN Security Council demand for Gaza ceasefire
NB.1.8.1 covid variant
EpochAI database of datacenters
Whatever happened with this?
A nuclear strike on Britain is a real possibility. Here's what we need to do. Grr
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