NunoSempere
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User ID: 1101
NunoSempere
15hr ago
Some items I'm looking at this week:
OpenAI to release web browser
Nearly 700 civilians killed in Israeli attacks on Iran
The new Bangladeshi government has an audio recording of the previous leader, Sheikh Hasina, ordering her forces to use lethal force. They will use this in her trial.
Hamas gives 'positive' response to 60-day ceasefire proposal but says talks needed on implementation
Russia allegedly field-testing deadly AI drone powered by Nvidia Jetson Orin
Israel launches new ground incursion in Lebanon, raising fears for truce
Trump Ups Criticism Of Putin As He Releases Weapons, Considers Sanctions
No fewer than 500 Israelis killed in conflict with Iran — Iranian parliament speaker
Church leaders: It's time for Nigeria's Christians to defend themselves – Catholic World Report
Supreme court clears way for Trump to mass fire federal workers
Former Bangladesh police chief admits to crimes against humanity amid crackdown trial
Yemeni armed forces hit Ben Gurion airport, other Israeli targets with drones, missiles
Yemen's Ansarullah pledges sleepless nights for zionists after terrorist 'israeli' incursion
Gaza ceasefire talks begin in Qatar amid ongoing tensions
Iran president Masoud Pezeshkian says Israel attempted to assassinate him
Trump claimed victory against the Houthis in fight over Red Sea shipping. Now they are sinking tankers again
What to know as Yemen's Houthi rebels launch new attacks on ships in the Red Sea
Climate change made Europe's heatwave up to 4C hotter
Climate change tripled recent heat deaths in Europe, scientists say
North Korea quietly building chemical weapons for combat
China provided real-time intelligence to Pakistan during a recent conflict with India, according to India's Deputy Army Chief.
As bird flu evolves, keeping it out of farm flocks is getting harder
First round of indirect Israel-Hamas talks ends inconclusively, 'situation in Gaza likely remains grim for foreseeable future'
South Sudan's worst and longest cholera outbreak enters critical stage
India admits heavy losses in 'operation sindoor', to posthumously honour 100 soldiers
Iran Fatwa Fundraiser to Kill Donald Trump Raises Over $40 Million
[Iran International] |reported| that Mansour Emami, another cleric in Iran's West Azerbaijan Province, announced a reward of 100 billion tomans ($1.14 million) for anyone who killed Trump.
Israel defence minister plans to move Gaza's population to camp
Israel's Defence Minister has directed the military to devise a plan for relocating all Palestinians in Gaza to the southern territory, with plans for a 'humanitarian city' to accommodate around 600,000 initially, potentially growing to house the entire population. The relocation aims to secure the area against potential Hamas operatives, operating under a proposed ceasefire for construction. This proposal has been met with strong condemnation from human rights advocates and warnings from the UN regarding the legal implications of forcibly transferring civilians, which is classified as ethnic cleansing.
Iran's government says at least 1,060 people were killed in the war with Israel – The Frontier Post
Tribunal indicts Sheikh Hasina (in absentia)
Death Toll in Kenya's Anti-Government Protests Rises to 31
Haiti death toll hits nearly 5,000 in nine months as gang violence spreads
"Hong Kong citizens felt immensely proud visiting the Shandong aircraft carrier group."
The US military will test a "Joint War Zone Distribution Center" in Australia.
General Ronald Clark, Commander of the U.S. Army Pacific, announced during the 'Protector's Blade' exercise that the Army is testing a new logistics capability in Australia aimed at efficiently prepositioning equipment and supplies in the Pacific theater. This initiative supports the military's strategic readiness for potential long-term operations, focusing on establishing 'Joint Theater Distribution Centers' that can be crucial during military conflicts, humanitarian missions, or natural disasters.
These distribution centers are set to be established across the Pacific region, with the Army currently managing centers in the Philippines and Australia. The exercise, which involves around 35,000 troops from 19 countries, serves as a platform for developing logistics capabilities and testing the Army's new 'Mid-Range Capability' missile system, the 'Typhoon.' Clark highlighted the necessity of these centers to mitigate logistical challenges and emphasized their essential attributes, which include operational port capabilities and storage for various supplies.
Unusual USAF and Space Force Drills Near Taiwan
UN reports 798 deaths near Gaza aid hubs amid ongoing conflict
Hamas agrees to release 10 hostages during Gaza peace talks
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) reported that it currently exercises operational control over 65 percent of the Gaza Strip.
European heatwave caused 2,300 deaths, scientists estimate
Europe's freak back-to-back heat-domes killed 2,300 in eight days with temperatures 'reaching 48C', study finds
NunoSempere
1d ago
NunoSempere
4d ago
This is a good bit, thanks :)
NunoSempere
6d ago
Yeah, SMOC reversal seems like a proof of concept for AMOC reversal.
NunoSempere
7d ago
Here are some topics I'm looking at this week; as a draft of the Sentinel minutes. Curious to get thoughts.
Geopolitics
Americas
Bill Gates warns about the lives lost because of US aid cuts, though he relies on a study on The Lancet
USAID programs now being run by State Department as agency ends operations
Mr. Abrego's Account of Torture at CECOT in El Salvador
Europe
Russian use of chemical weapons against Ukraine 'widespread', Dutch defence minister says
613 killed at Gaza aid distribution sites, near humanitarian covoys, says UN
North Korea to send 30,000 more troops to help Russia fight Ukraine
Over 210,000 Russians signed contracts for war in Ukraine in first half of 2025, Moscow says
Middle East
Iran
United States expands military base in Saudi Arabia
A military base has been established by the U.S. near the Red Sea in Saudi Arabia, with construction beginning in early 2022. The base, known as the 'Jenkins Logistics Support Base,' has been quietly growing and is strategically located 30 kilometers from a significant Saudi port, suggesting preparations for a prolonged military conflict with Iran. Recent updates show substantial expansion since last year, including new buildings and enhanced security measures, alongside a continuous necessity for U.S. military supplies in response to escalating tensions in the region, such as Iran's attacks on military assets.
Iran Halts Cooperation with UN Nuclear Watchdog
US says its strikes degraded Iran's nuclear programme by one to two years
Iran president Pezeshkian reportedly orders to suspend cooperation with IAEA
US must rule out more strikes before talks can resume: Iran
US lawmakers seek to send B-2s, bunker busters to Israel if Iran takes nuclear path
Gaza
Gaza starvation killings: UN says deliberately shot hungry civilians
Gaza: Over 400 Palestinians killed around private aid hubs, UN rights office says
Hamas submits ‘positive response’ to ceasefire proposal in major step toward a deal
Donald Trump Says Israel Agrees to 60-Day Gaza Ceasefire
Yemen
Asia
Satellite evidence points to heightened operations at N. Korean nuclear site
North Korea's uranium refinery in Pyongsan has shown increased activity amidst ongoing efforts to strengthen its nuclear arsenal. Utilizing satellite imagery and thermal infrared analysis, recent findings indicate that operations at the facility have intensified, particularly at night, with the facility's waste management practices also experiencing notable changes. The site consists of three main zones: a uranium mine, a refining factory, and a settling pond for wastewater, all of which are reportedly well-fortified against potential air strikes, though concerns over their effectiveness persist.
Analysis reveals that the Pyongsan facility is the only operational uranium refinery in North Korea following the reported closure of another site in Pakchon. An uptick in wastewater release into the settling pond has been detected, raising environmental concerns ahead of the rainy season. Additionally, alarming reports of a mysterious illness affecting local workers and residents have prompted calls for a thorough investigation into the health impacts and environmental conditions surrounding the refinery.
India/Pakistan
Bangladesh tribunal hands 6-month jail term in first verdict against Hasina
Africa
Looming funding shortfall could reverse global progress against AIDS, warns UNAIDS chief
200 Christians killed in Nigeria by Fulani herdsmen
Suspected Boko Haram insurgents step up attacks in Nigeria
Congo, M23 rebels plan return to Qatar talks amid Trump pressure
Bio
Tech and AI
Global Economy
Early Fed chair nomination could rattle markets - Reuters
World Bank warns that 39 fragile states are falling further behind as conflicts grow, get deadlier
Misc
Reversal in ocean circulation
Major reversal in ocean circulation detected in the Southern Ocean
Two people perish in Spain's heatwave
NunoSempere
12d ago
As an example, image sharing and videoconferencing are much faster & better. Slack is actually much better than IRC; it casually embeds a version of Skype just because. It allows for sharing images. Good threads.
NunoSempere
1mo ago
Some news items this week:
AI generated video might be directly optimizable for attention, in a way that is more scary than Tiktok
Statement from U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick on Transforming the U.S. AI Safety Institute into the Pro-Innovation, Pro-Science U.S. Center for AI Standards and Innovation
In conducting these evaluations, CAISI will focus on demonstrable risks, such as cybersecurity, biosecurity, and chemical weapons.
^ Sad day for black swans
AI required by court order to save logs?
Chinese couple charged with smuggling a biological pathogen into the U.S.
Floods in Nigeria kill over 150 people
Iran FM preparing response to potential nuclear agreement, holds call with IAEA head.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Rejects U.S. Nuclear Deal Offer
Interesting brief, similar to Sentinel
Israel strikes Syria after projectiles fired, holds Sharaa responsible
The spokesperson for China's Ministry of National Defense, Zhang Xiaogang, responded to recent comments made by the U.S. Secretary of Defense at the Shangri-La Dialogue, criticizing the U.S. for its negative portrayal of China and its military presence in Asia. Zhang condemned the U.S. for its hegemonic approach, inciting tensions in the region, and undermining China's sovereignty, particularly regarding Taiwan and the South China Sea.
Zhang emphasized that the Taiwan issue is China's internal matter and warned against any U.S. interference. He asserted China's commitment to defending its sovereignty and territorial integrity, while also highlighting China's intent to resolve disputes peacefully in the South China Sea. The statement depicted China as a proponent of peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific, opposing any form of hegemonism that disrupts regional harmony.
China's 'Silent Hunter' laser gun shooting down Ukrainian drones
US Simulates Missile Strikes on Warships at China Choke Point
'Corpses rotting in the Nile' as cholera tears through Sudan – Dominican Republic Post
Sudan's New PM Dissolves Caretaker Government One Day After Taking Office
Death toll in Nigeria jumps past 200
Ukraine and Russia agree to swap dead, wounded troops but report no progress toward ending war
'Balochistan, KP remain epicentres as Pakistan records 85 attacks in May'
'New red line': India, Pak generals exchange warnings at Shangri-La
Al-Qaida affiliate attacks Mali army bases as junta struggles to contain jihadist threat
Indonesia's health ministry issues warning over COVID-19 surge in Asia
Niger Flood: Death toll rises to 150, Tinubu asks NEMA to activate Emergency Response Centre
Trump Asks Congress to Rescind $8.3 Billion in Foreign Assistance
Trump on Musk
Elon was "wearing thin," I asked him to leave, I took away his EV Mandate that forced everyone to buy Electric Cars that nobody else wanted (that he knew for months I was going to do!), and he just went CRAZY!
Elon and Trump fighting
Who detected vaccine-derived polio in samples from children in Morobe (Papua New Guinea)
US vetoes UN Security Council demand for Gaza ceasefire
NB.1.8.1 covid variant
EpochAI database of datacenters
Whatever happened with this?
A nuclear strike on Britain is a real possibility. Here's what we need to do. Grr
NunoSempere
1mo ago
Most vaccine candidates against bird flu are reliant on fucking eggs for production. It's kind of a good idea to use mrna.
Oh noe.
NunoSempere
1mo ago
If living hostages could be divided up I'm sure they'd try that.
A 25% chance of giving back a hostage as decided by two fair coin throws by the Patriarch of Moscow
NunoSempere
1mo ago
Some headlines for discussion:
4 Palestinians die after the storming of a UN food warehouse in Gaza. A distribution center from a group that agreed to work with Israeli restrictions meant to prevent aid being diverted or controlled by Hamas was also overrun. The head of this later group also resigned
Iran may pause enrichment for a year and ship off its highly enriched uranium in exchange for the US to recognize its right to enrich uranium for its civilian energy program and unfreeze funds.
Israel receives new U.S.-backed Gaza truce proposal: state media-Xinhua
Malta announces plan to officially recognize Palestine
Cholera outbreak in Sudan kills 172 in one week
Amnesty says over 10,000 killed in two years in Nigeria
Trump used offers of trade access to broker India-Pakistan ceasefire, claims U.S. Commerce Secretary
Eric Schmidt warns against China bombing US datacenters
UK announces $1B investment in cyber warfare
Ethiopia reports first mpox case
Trump admin cancels $766M in funding for moderna.
NunoSempere
1mo ago
Thanks!
NunoSempere
1mo ago
Geopolitics
Americas
US launched its second ICBM test this year
Africa
Christians in Africa are being prosecuted somewhat systematically, particularly in northern Nigeria by Boko Haram. "In 2024 alone, over 4,500 Christians in 12 countries across the Sahel region were killed for their faith, 114,000 Christians forcibly displaced, 16,000 homes destroyed, and over 1,700 churches impacted"
Sudan's army chief names former UN official as new prime minister
U.S. will impose sanctions on Sudan for using chemical weapons
Middle East
Russia's Hmeimim airbase in Syria is under attack. I remember thinking that Lisa thought this was important
Iran
Israel 'preparing strike on Iran's nuclear facilities'
Oil prices rise on signs of faltering U.S.-Iran nuclear talks
U.S. media reports: Should U.S.-Iran nuclear talks fail, Israel is prepared to quickly strike Iranian nuclear facilities.
Gaza
14,000 babies could die in Gaza within 48 hours without aid: UN
Israel allowed some aid into Gaza
Britain, Canada, France condemn Israel's blocking of aid in Gaza, threaten sanctions
Gaza reports 326 malnutrition deaths, more than 300 miscarriages due to lack of essentials
New Gaza offensive
Yemen
Yemen's Houthis target Israel's Ben Gurion Airport, 3rd missile strike in 24 hours
Houthis declare naval blockade of Haifa port
Asia
China is integrating civil and military networks. "By connecting high-tech enterprises and facilitating data-driven collaborations, the platform accelerates the matching of military needs with available resources, resulting in timely and effective responses to various challenges. The platform features a comprehensive database that includes over ten thousand high-tech companies, hundreds of thousands of skilled personnel"
United States Develops "Orbital Aircraft Carriers" Endangering Space Safety, says China
Accelerate the building of China's independent military knowledge system. Another article in a similar vein as above.
China says ready to boost military-to-military ties with Russia
MEMRI warning about "China's Imminent Invasion Of Taiwan"
House Select Committee Warns: "The Window to Deter War with China is Closing Fast"
Oropuche virus rapidly spreading in Latin America; over 20K infected individuals ince late 2023
Riding the Waves! Full Throttle Live Fire Drill with Missile Speedboats
A squadron of missile boats from the Navy of the Eastern Theater Command has recently engaged in a comprehensive live-fire training exercise. This high-intensity session included a variety of drills such as maritime search and rescue operations, fleet patrols, and missile attack simulations, all aimed at enhancing the operational combat skills of the soldiers involved.
The training took place around the clock and involved multi-subject scenarios, systematically validating and improving the readiness of the naval forces for potential maritime combat situations.
India/Pakistan
3/4th of India's population at 'high' to 'very high' heat risk: CEEW study
Airlines Prepare for Nuclear War
Europe
Poland intervenes after Russian 'shadow fleet' ship detected near Baltic Sea cable
Russia stops Greek tanker leaving Estonia in tit-for-tat Baltic move
Bio
A paper in Nature looks at an outbreak of multidrug-resistant dysentery from 2021 to 2023 in Mexico
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has called for increased American involvement and support for the Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)-led administration in Syria to prevent its potential collapse
Study shows that the 2022 mpox outbreak started in 2014
Tech and AI
xAI’s Grok 3 comes to Microsoft Azure
VEO 3 generates some pretty nifty videos
veo3 is a new model by Google that is able to create convincing (and addictive) video
Misc
Chances of a mega-tsunami hitting California about 15% over the next 50 years?
Also covered here
Briefing to the UN on the state of the protection of civilians in armed conflict
Netanyahu press conference
NunoSempere
1mo ago
Here is the more polished "global risks brief" my team creates from the items above (and others). The executive summary is:
Moody’s downgraded the US credit rating as the US budget deficit grows and US borrowing costs rise. House Republicans are advancing a budget that would increase the deficit further. Meanwhile, China is reducing its holdings of US Treasuries and its dependencies on foreign components in its supply chains as it seeks to de-risk its economy from the US and the West.
Google announced a new coding agent, AlphaEvolve, that has creative problem-solving abilities. Gulf states agreed to more than $1T in US investments and joint enterprises during a visit by Trump to the Middle East, including joint AI ventures. Forecasters estimated a 28% chance (range, 25-30%) that the US will pass a 10-year ban on states regulating AI by the end of 2025.
Negotiations between the US and Iran continue. Iran has signaled willingness to limit uranium enrichment and allow inspections in exchange for sanctions being lifted. Forecasters estimated that there is a 46% chance (range, 40%-50%) that the US and Iran will sign an agreement about Iran’s nuclear program by the end of August.
The ceasefire between India and Pakistan is holding. The Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in Turkey has officially disbanded. Israel has launched a new, major offensive in Gaza. Putin did not attend the first direct ceasefire talks with Ukraine since early in the war.
NunoSempere
1mo ago
I thought this thread was illuminating; thanks all
NunoSempere
1mo ago
The issue is that it no matter how many kms of regions Russia wants to demand the ukrainians turn over without fighting, it will still be in the Ukrainian interest to make Russia pay the resources they are willing to spend fighting km by km, rather than let Russia have both kms and the resources to conquer more.
Oooh, this makes sense, thanks
NunoSempere
1mo ago
Some headlines below for your consideration, focused on risks. The high level overview is that Trump's Middle East trip is going well, India/Pakistan situation not that worrying. I was also surprised that the PKK announced its disbandment. Generally things seem less tense than a couple weeks ago.
Satellite images show Russian military buildup near Finnish border
Cotton Introduces Bill to Prevent Diversion of Advanced Chips to America’s Adversaries and Protect U.S. Product Integrity
Kurdish militant group, PKK decides to disband and end armed struggle with Turkiye
On May 14, a formation of Chinese Coast Guard vessels patrolled the territorial waters around my Diaoyu Islands.
PM Modi outlines harder stance against terrorists. Says that any terrorist attack on India will be met with a strong and decisive response; that India will not tolerate "nuclear blackmail" and will respond with precise strikes; that there will be no distinction between terrorist groups and their sponsors
Türkiye Says It Is Closely Monitoring PKK Disbandment to Secure Peace
Did Pakistan agree to ceasefire after IAF bombed nuclear assets in Kairana Hills? Did it cause leak of radiation?
Iran 'ready to make nuclear concessions'
Amazon will work with AI company recently launched by Saudi Arabia’s ruler to invest upwards of $5 billion-plus in building an AI Zone in Saudi Arabia
Genocide in Syria: Jihadists Massacre Druze, Christians, 'Infidels'
Nvidia sending 18,000 of its top AI chips to Saudi Arabia
Trump, Saudis secure $600B investment deal to include billions in US defense weapons
Similar to a 600B number earlier this year
Taiwan military conducts its first live-fire test of American-made HIMARS, military expert says: its survivability is very fragile.
Nigerian state, Borno, with 6M people, bans the sale of petrol in order to reduce the mobility of jihadist militants
EU finalizes 17th sanctions package targeting Russia's shadow fleet and defense sector
German police arrest three men over alleged Russian parcel bomb plot
Inside Putin's New Kill Squad: Russian Dictator Launches 'KGB 2.0'
Amid beating from India, Baloch rebels also claim 71 attacks on Pakistani forces
No radiation leak from any nuclear facility in Pakistan, says IAEA amid buzz after Indian claims
Macron open to deploying French nuclear weapons in Europe
Estonia tried to detain vessel from Russia's shadow fleeet, did not succeed
NunoSempere
1mo ago
I applied for an org that was 50% the same objective 50% emergency response. I am very unlikely to join FRI so they do a good job; if I quit my current thing I'm more likely to go into the private sector
NunoSempere
1mo ago
The stated reason was that at the time we also had an emergency response team, which reportedly was less of a fit for forecasting specifically. The actual reason is complicated/less discernable, but I get the feeling that they took a look at me and said: nah.
NunoSempere
1mo ago
I am very frustrated at this $10M grant. I think I could do the part about "foundational research into the methodological challenges of existential risk forecasts, as well as applied research on estimating such risks, and on the identification of early warning signals" well, if not better. In fact I have been obsessing about that cluster of problems for the last several years. Yet I was rejected by the organization making the grant a few months ago. Feels bad man.
NunoSempere
2mo ago
My roundup for last week:
- India and Pakistan have agreed to a ceasefire, and despite initial breaches, it now seems to be holding.
- The Trump administration and China agreed to reduce tariffs for 90 days while talks continue. Markets rejoiced.
- The Trump administration continues to look into ending due process for immigrants to be deported and is making arrangements to deport undocumented immigrants to many countries around the world.
- Israel is set to start a major operation in Gaza soon.
- The nonprofit OpenAI will retain control of the for-profit arm after restructuring.
NunoSempere
2mo ago
Thanks!
NunoSempere
2mo ago
ranked quite highly on PopePredictor
Do you have a link?
NunoSempere
2mo ago
Prediction markets didn't see itn coming, which I thought was interesting.
NunoSempere
2mo ago
Yes but it needs taste. Go is nicer than C, python is nicer than perl and bash and php. Command line apps are blazingly fast.
Slack is built upon a tower of abstractions and it does have more functionality than IRC. It could have been better but the tower of abstractions means it was created faster.
My impression is that the numbers you are mention... aren't that high; Israel is probably willing to spend many more of its own lives in this conflict.
For reference, if we adjust the 150K to 500K deaths[^1] from Russia's war in Ukraine from Russia's population of 143M to Israel's population of 9.757M, we get 10K to 34K, and remember that we are talking about deaths here. So there is room for a 10x here easily.
This doesn't really speak to your point of whether Hamas' fighting capabilities have been degraded. But Israel has been fighting a war with many fronts, in which Iran has been taken out of the picture, Hezbollah has been disabled in Lebanon. Recently the Israeli army claimed that they had operational control of 65% of Gaza, which is congruent with your perspective.
[^1]: Recent reports say 1M dead or injured, but use the confusing term "casualties" for this, to make it look bigger.
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