NunoSempere
No bio...
User ID: 1101
NunoSempere
11mo ago
in defense of Marx.
I was not expecting this.
NunoSempere
11mo ago
On pruning science, or, the razor of Bayes: one of many thoughts of «what if Lesswrong weren't a LARP» the need to have a software framework, now probably LLM-powered, to excise known untruths and misstatements of fact, and in a well-weighed manner all contributions of their authors, from the graph of priors for next-iteration null hypotheses and other assumptions.
Also interesting
NunoSempere
11mo ago
Rationalist reversals: the notion of «Infohazard» is the most salient example of infohazard known, anthropic shadow as an anti-bayesian cognitive bias and reasoning yourself into a cult.
Curious about this.
NunoSempere
11mo ago
Also interested.
NunoSempere
11mo ago
It does sound interesting to me.
NunoSempere
11mo ago
Here are some drafts I have, though not particularly CW.
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Acetylcysteine as the first treatment for a cold/mucus in Spain but not in Britain
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Ze Dreadful German In Ze Writings of Curtis Yarvin. I would respect the guy if he was a gentleman and a scholar, actually knew German and used it to better capture the Zeitgeist and express his Weltanschauung, but instead we get a Blitzkrieg of stilted phrases which annoy me.
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Comparison of The Driver (1978), Driver (2011), Baby Driver (2017). Same plot, different decades.
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Base rates of success dating docs.
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Tetlock forecasting approach vs Subjective Bayesianism
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My ideal prediction market playbook
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Optimize hard or GTFO
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A retelling of El Mio Cid, an Spanish epic poem where a recurring theme is that the hero would be a good and loyal knight if only he had a good king as lord.
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A lot of shit on OpenPhilanthropy, FTX and EA.
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Utilitarianism for Democrats
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Utilitarianism for Republicans
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Why are we not better, harder, faster, stronger
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Updating in the face of anthropic effects is possible
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Betting and consent
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How to host an autarkic/uncensorable site.
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Tetlock vs subjective bayesianism
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Something on the limits of Bayesianism
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I want to nerd out a bit on infrabayesianism / what one should do if one expects that one's hypothesis may not be able to represent future events.
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Bounties, things I would pay for
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My consulting rates
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Criticism as a demand side problem
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My preferred deviations from common English
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Some observations on the speed of qalia
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People's choices determine a pseudo ordering over people's desirability
This is more than what I would have though, typing this out.
I've been posting a stream of similar ideas on my blog (https://nunosempere.com/blog/), with an eye to those that I think could be more valuable. But if this community is particularly interested in any of these, I'll probably be happy to re-prioritize.
NunoSempere
1yr ago
Kudos.
NunoSempere
1yr ago
Thanks for your long and thoughtful comment, /u/magic9mushroom. I appreciate it, and you bring up some good points.
That said, I'm kind of miffled that you don't quite mention why you believe the things that you believe. The obvious answer to why is that you cover a lot of points, and you are already covering a wide range of topics, so going into the whys would take too much time. But at the same time, I've also observed that pattern in other discussions (e.g. here and here), and it sort of makes me think that we could do better.
NunoSempere
1yr ago
I don't necessarily disagree. In particular, I think that from the considerations I mention, we can conclude that the specifics of how the x-risk would develop are still up in the air, and that his is somewhat valuable info.
NunoSempere
1yr ago
Thanks, I appreciate this list!
NunoSempere
1yr ago
Yeah. To reply to the first part, my answer to that is to realize that knowledge is valuable insofar as it changes decisions, and to try to generate knowledge that changes decisions that are important. YMMV.
NunoSempere
1yr ago
Log in
Heads up that I couldn't log in with my normal username and password.
NunoSempere
1yr ago
virtually nobody has ever done this before
A similar proposal I've heard of is recursive prediction markets. E.g,. you hold a prediction market on what the probability another prediction market will/would assign when asked what the chance that a researcher spending a lot of time on a topic would conclude. I did some early work on this here: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cLtdcxu9E4noRSons/part-1-amplifying-generalist-research-via-forecasting-models and here: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FeE9nR7RPZrLtsYzD/part-2-amplifying-generalist-research-via-forecasting, and in general there is some work on this under the name "amplification".
NunoSempere
1yr ago
This could be solved by offering bets. In particular, Insight Prediction has a bunch of liquid markets: https://insightprediction.com/c/5/russia-ukraine
NunoSempere
1yr ago
Neat piece, thanks for writing it.
NunoSempere
1yr ago
which means few have any idea
...which means that questions were selected for being uncertaint
I have yet to see anyone who can do it well
maybe you're not hanging out in the right places
NunoSempere
1yr ago
How would one go about using this?
I'm curious which ones you (or other motte people) think would be most interesting for you in particular, rather than "useful in general".
More options
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