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Transnational Thursday for January 2, 2025

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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Some stuff I'm paying attention to this week:

Drag marks on the seabed were discovered following damage to the Estlink 2 undersea power cable, which connects Finland and Estonia. This provides further evidence of sabotage.

Chinese is facing a human metapneumovirus outbreak, with authorities ramping up detection and response protocols

Palestine: a year in review.

Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov shared Moscow's opposition to the deployment of Western peacekeeping forces in Ukraine

The IDF reports 891 casualties since Hamas' October 7 attack. Compare with the upwards of 40K dead Gazans.

Pakistan attacked some positions of the TTP in Afghanistan, leading to the Afghan Taliban hitting several points in Pakistan.

Iran to hold nuclear talks with France, Britain and Germany on January 13

Israel announced increase in propaganda budget by USD 150M to combat Gaza narrative

Israeli Report to UN Exposes Hamas Torture, Sexual Abuse of Hostages, Including Children

Israeli raid shuts last major hospital in north Gaza

Yemen's Houthis claim to have shot down 13th MQ-9 Reaper drone

China calls for withdrawal of U.S. missile system from the Philippines

Himalayan megadam gives China power to turn off taps in India

Leaked documents reveal that Russia has prepared target lists for over 160 sites in Japan and South Korea in the event of a major war, dating back to 2013-2014. The plans, which focus on military engagements in the Asia-Pacific region, highlight Russia's intentions to use non-nuclear cruise missiles to disrupt military operations and include both military and civilian infrastructure targets. Among the military sites are command headquarters and radar installations, while civilian targets include power plants and major transportation infrastructures like tunnels and bridges. The documents indicate that of the 160 targets, 82 are military installations, with the remainder being civilian infrastructure.

Taiwanese fighter who served in Ukraine says island unprepared for Chinese invasion

The US and Japan issued their first guidelines for extended deterrence, which outline the potential use of U.S. nuclear weapons in response to threats from China and North Korea. Final authorization remains with the US president. Seems more like something to calm Japan's nerves than anything else

The Chinese navy and Coast Guard conducted a maritime blockade drill in the Miyako Strait, a strategic waterway near Japanese territory where U.S. forces are stationed.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has directed the government and Sberbank to collaborate with China on AI, aiming to bolster Russia's capabilities, particularly military ones, like autonomous combat systems, in the face of Western sanctions.

"The people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait are one family. No one can sever our family bonds, and no one can stop the historical trend of national reunification," Xi said in a speech televised on China's state broadcaster CCTV.

Chinese-Russian air co-operation in the Artic has Norad's 'full attention'

Russia threatens more nuclear tests as World War 3 fears intensify. Russia ratified the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) in 2000, but has since withdrawn from the agreement

Russia will abandon moratorium on deploying short- and medium range milliles

Russia angry that state media blocked on Telegram in the EU

'We are waging an existential war': M23's Bertrand Bisimwa on DRC conflict

Delaware officials investigate possible bird flu outbreak after dozens of snow geese test positive. Small microcosm of how H5N1 is playing out

Sweden is planning to secure additional land for cemeteries in anticipation of potential war casualties,


Also, Scott Alexander also gave some thanks to me and my group at the end of this post on H5N1, :)-

Among the military sites are command headquarters and radar installations, while civilian targets include power plants and major transportation infrastructures like tunnels and bridges. The documents indicate that of the 160 targets, 82 are military installations, with the remainder being civilian infrastructure.

I am pretty sure power plants, tunnels and bridges are not described as "civilian targets" when America or its allies bomb such structures, which I'm pretty sure we have in many, many previous conflicts.

Good point, thanks

De nada, and sorry if the above came across as snippy. I really enjoy these posts.