NunoSempere
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User ID: 1101
NunoSempere
7mo ago
Elon Musk shared a perspective from Jeffrey Sachs, outlined in more detail here or here, about how Russia was provoked by NATO expansion into invading Ukraine, in the same way that the US was provoked by Soviet cooperation with Cuba. This matters because Musk has become an important Trump advisor.
African countries face cybersecurity vulnerabilities due to foreign control over critical technological infrastructure, with notable cases of Chinese cyber espionage in African Union headquarters and Kenyan government ministries. Chinese and U.S. companies dominate the application and operating system layers.
Theravada Budhist rebel militias control most of a state (province) in Myanmar. Seems like it could tickle some people here.
Otherwise, I'm thinking about how states just seem like a bad abstraction. Alliance blocks, ideologies, religions, dynasties seem like somewhat better building blocks. In particular, states seem like an easy abstraction, but recently they have mislead me when... a) thinking about the Iran/Hamas/Hezbollah/Houthis: it seems much easier to think about them in terms of religion than in terms of their geographic boundaries; b) there are a few governments that are pretty weak, and they are so just because the west recognizes and supports them. Yemen, the former government of Afghanistan come to mind, c) borders are important, but not that important. There is free travel between Paraguay/Argentina/Brazil, between the European Union, between the US and Canada, between Russia and Belarus, etc., d) at the lower level, a few governments are just a few families in a trench coat (Saudi Arabia, El Salvador, etc.).
Longer list of items below. Some may be wrong.
Protest in Hyderabad against Punjab's construction of more canals on the Indus river.
Canada forces are training for deployment in Latvia—an a potential
Potential prophylactic against Ricin, in case somebody is wanting to recreate a Pricess Bride scene irl.
A paper in nature warns about the danger of a repeat of the 1815 Mount Tambora eruption
Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi warned of the potential spillover effects of the wars in Gaza and Lebanon, where Iran-backed groups are battling Israel. Araghchi stated that if the conflict expands, it could result in insecurity and instability spreading to other regions beyond the Middle East. I'm particularly worried about that scenario.
Biden administration "under pressure" to respond to Iran's plot to kill Trump, reports Fox News.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has called for imposing a weapons embargo on Israel and severing trade relations with the country
Far-right Israeli minister calls for annexation of West Bank
IDF says it destroyed most of Hezbollah's manufacturing, storage sites
Iran is building 'defensive tunnels' in Tehran metro network to save people from Israeli air strikes
Iran might have developed chemical weapons. These would have been tactical, rather than wide-area.. British tabloid claims that Liz Truss thought that there was a 50% that Putin would use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine in the eve of her administration
The Famine Early Warning System warns that if food supplies remain blocked, then Famine (IPC Phase 5) will most likely occur in North Gaza
An Iranian MP says Iran should move forward with a nuclear test
China is building nuclear reactor to power new aircraft carrier
France sent a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier to Japan
North Korea ratifies mutual defence treaty with Russia. The treaty commits both countries to providing immediate military assistance to each other using “all means” necessary if either faces “aggression”.
NATO military chief says troops would be on ground if not for Russian nukes
US flights to Haiti banned after 3 airplanes shot. government information campaign in Norway is urging citizens to prepare for emergencies, with a checklist of supplies including water, food, candles, iodine, a radio, and cash.
Doctors Without Borders ambulance in Haiti ambushed, patients executed by police officers and vigilantes.
Colombia has declared a state of disaster following days of torrential flooding impacting tens of thousands of families.
European Forum for Disaster Risk Reduction
Canada records its first human bird flu case
Global talks to reach an agreement on better fighting pandemics will continue into next year
The largest-yet multilingual open pretraining dataset was released.
China arms itself for potential trade war with Donald Trump. "You think you’ve priced-in geopolitical risk and US-China trade warfare, but you haven’t, because China hasn’t seriously retaliated yet"
Ukraine could build a crude nuclear bomb within months, similar to the Fat Man bomb dropped in Nagasaki, from spent plutonium
An elephant seal colony lost 95%+ of its pups because of H5N1
An Australian site makes the point that misinformation laws prevent converging to the truth when the official version is wrong, as it was in the early days of covid when the mechanism for transmission was thought to be droplets, rather than the virus being more generally airborne.
ChinaTalk reports on the state of model testing in China
NunoSempere
8mo ago
Some news stories I'm tracking; thoughts welcome on any of them, particularly the first two.
South Korean intelligence reports that an agreement between North Korea and Russia includes an annual supply of 600-700 tonnes of rice to North Korea, a salary of US$2,000 for North Korean soldiers deployed in Ukraine, space technology, and provisions for Russian involvement in potential conflicts on the Korean Peninsula. With around 10,000 North Korean troops expected to be deployed to Ukraine, this could generate over US$200 million annually for Pyongyang. The 4 million tonnes of grains that North Korea says it produces per year are actually about 1 million tonnes short of what it needs to feed the country.
Six people have been killed in NY after a "subway surfing" trend, where people get on top of subway trends, has been going "viral". The number is really small, but the vector "social media leads people to do really stupid shit" seems like it could scale (anorexia and tumblr, lying flat in China, etc.) Admittedly, the subway surfing in question looks pretty lit.
There is a crunch in the transformer industry
Canada's National Cyber Threat Assessment classifies India a "state adversary"
198 killed, 111 injured in separate terrorist attacks in Pakistan during October.
Volcano erupted in Indonesia, killing ten people (and thousands will be relocated), but the region has a lot of volcanoes and a lot of people.
Myanmar <> India border conflict. Over 200 people have died, 60,000 displaced, and 30 km of fencing completed. The influx of refugees from Myanmar, over 60,000 in Mizoram and 5,000 in Manipur,
The Houthis have developed what they call a "marching submarine", something between a moveable landmine and an unmanned submarine.
Veterinarians back mass testing of milk for avian flu
Egypt hosted Fatah <> Hamas post war Gaza talks
US Deploys B-52 Bombers and Missile Destroyers in Warning to Iran Amid Escalating Regional Tensions
Another Hezbollah commander killed
Houthis pledge to continue red sea attacks despite Israeli asset sales. They allege that Israeli shipping companies are transferring assets to avoid detection.
Israel conducted airstrikes on military targets in Iran, damaging their missile program and air defenses.
Israel Ends Agreement With UN Agency Providing Aid in Gaza
Israel has ended the agreement enabling the United Nations agency for Palestinian refugees to operate, citing alleged infiltration by Hamas, a claim the agency denies.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has fired Defence Minister Yoav Gallant and appointed Israel Katz as his successor. The move comes following open disagreements between Netanyahu and Gallant over the management of Israel's wars in Gaza and Lebanon. Thousands protested the move in Tel Aviv
Palestinians say Israel struck Gaza clinic during polio campaign; army denies it
Lebanon filed a formal complaint against Israel at the United Nations following deadly explosions caused by rigged communication devices. Shows how impotent Lebanon is imho
The Philippine military has opened two weeks of combat drills in the South China Sea, with more than 3,000 personnel participating in maneuvers that include seizing an island. The drills have raised tensions with China, which claims most of the South China Sea.
Newly revealed documents show that Russia's proposed agreement to end the special operation in 2022 included giving up Crimea and parts of eastern Ukraine, reducing Ukraine's military size, prohibiting missile development, joining NATO
Mariana Katzarova, the United Nations special rapporteur on human rights in Russia, reported on the widespread and systematic use of torture by Russian authorities to oppress and control society. The torture has worsened during Russia's invasion of Ukraine, with thousands of Ukrainian civilians detained, deported, and tortured in Russian prisons. Despite the shocking human rights violations, Katzarova hopes for a constructive dialogue with Russian officials to address the issues. Note that the source is Voice of America; a US state-controlled outlet.
Russian operatives shipped two incendiary devices in attempts to start fires aboard cargo or passenger aircraft heading to the U.S. and Canada. DHL was used to ship electric massagers containing a magnesium-based flammable substance as part of a covert Russian sabotage campaign. Seems like an escalation of US<>Russia tensions.
There are ongoing jihadist insurgencies in Chad, Libya, Sudan, the Central African Republic, Cameroon, Nigeria, and Niger. These are generally attacking Christians, causing large population movements,
Chaucer has launched a new nuclear insurance policy called CyNuC to provide insurance cover for cyberattacks on nuclear power plants. It doesn't include war and hostile state-sponsored action though. I thought this was cool.
Sudan conflict spirals into civil war, if it hadn't already
The US State Department is giving some assistance to Somalia's police to build counterterrorism capacity. state-funded radio show in Poland replaced all its presenters with experimental AI hosts. This initially increased listenership but then sparked backlash.
Another case of the new, more infectious mpox strain (clade 1b) has been detected in the UK, bringing the total confirmed number of cases to four. The cases are all from the same household
Norway invests ~22M USD in global pandemic preparedness
Global pandemic accord negotiations continue
Scientists track emergence of novel H5N1 flu reassortant in Cambodia The novel reassortant virus combines genes from two H5N1 clades and has worrisome mutations, including one linked to adaptation to mammals and airborne transmission. This is kind of the next worrying step between on the way between now and H5N1 being a global pandemic.
UK government to create surveillance system for future pandemics
UK raises avian influenza risk level to high
The US carried a test of its Minuteman III missile, to showcase its nuclear readiness
NunoSempere
8mo ago
Stuff I've been tracking this week so far:
The US approved $110M worth of radar & other equipment to Romania
...as Romania's top court bans a pro-Russian candidate from running in the presidential election next month
Russian arms dealer is attempting to broker a deal with the Houthis
The Japanese Prime Minister suggested a Japanese base in Guam, to the dismay of the Guam population.
Over 3000 Sunni scholars praised Khamenei over Iran’s military action on Israel. This is relevant because it shows religious unity and consensus building, which is predictive of further actions in the same direction.
Israel expands offensive against Hezbollah in south Lebanon. As seems to be the pattern in recent conflicts, initial incursions and special operations later expand, such that there is no clear line for "full-blown conflict"
Israel also kills Hassan Nasrallah's successor
Kazakhstan to build nuclear power plant
Hezbollah rockets hit Haifa
More than 130 projectiles fired into Israel on anniversary of Oct 7 attack
A dispute in Nigeria seems small scale now but in the worst case scenario could snowball into a civil war. Details are unclear but the dispute seems between the central government of Nigeria, controlled by one party, and the governorate of an oil rich region, controlled by another.
Mpox spreads in a DRC megacity, Kinshasa (formerly Leopoldville, with 17M inhabitants, largest city in Africa)
An interview with John Sullivan, former US ambassador to Russia, has this snippet on Putin's possible use of nuclear weapons:
I’m not a nuclear weapons expert, but I did spend a lot of time in Russia, observing Putin and his government and how they approach this war. And I also spoke to military experts in the US while I was Ambassador. The use of a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine isn’t in the interests of Russia. A tactical nuclear weapon destroys things. Putin would be destroying territory that he says is part of Russia.
The only time I thought he might use an unconventional weapon was in the spring of 2020 when you'll recall, the Russian military surrounded Mariupol, an important port. And there was a large Ukrainian military contingent in a large steel factory. They were dug in. The Russians had expended a huge amount of resources [and] personnel to try to crush the Ukrainian resistance. I thought Putin might use chemical weapons the way Assad used chemical weapons in Syria to kill those who were resisting so that he wouldn't have to spend the lives of as many Russians as it would take to ultimately dig out those Ukrainian resisters. Huge Russian casualties [and] even then, he didn’t use a nuclear weapon.
The way I think of it, Putin has to be threatened personally. And there was a moment last year with [former Wagner mercenary chief, Yevgeny] Prigozhin. Instead of it being Wagner, Russians who were committing what they characterised as a mutiny against the Minister of Defence […] imagine that’s the Ukrainian armed forces and they’re marching north toward Moscow, the capital of the Russian world. If Ukrainians were threatening that, that’s where I would not rule out the possibility that Putin would use or threaten in a much more overt, destabilising way – through a nuclear test, for example – nuclear weapons. But it would have to be a threat to his regime in the Kremlin, not battlefield losses in Ukraine or even public support starting to diminish in Russia.
A BBC documentary claims that on 8 June 1967, during the Six-Day War, America considered launching a nuclear attack against Egypt
Saudi Arabia under MBS is carrying out around 200 executions a year
The mayor of a city in southwest Mexico was beheaded
Dominican Republic starts mass deportations of Haitians and expels nearly 11,000 in a week
Rwanda introduces partial travel ban to fight Marburg spread
Doctors without borders warns that Israeli mass evacuation orders are creating catastrophic conditions
Mongolian police seize around 290 dead marmots, in effort to stop spread of bubonic plague. Although hunting marmots is illegal in Mongolia, many locals regard the rodent as a delicacy and frequently disregard the law.
China seems to have hacked the mechanism that US telecoms use to assent to US court-authorized wiretaps.
NunoSempere
6mo ago
Feliz navidad!
NunoSempere
6mo ago
Letter from Biden to the Speaker of the House on US deployments is interesting. I appreciate how it subverts various mechanisms for Congressional oversight.
From doctor to brutal dictator: the rise and fall of Syria's Bashar al Assad
An article in Haaretz openly talks about Israel's nuclear program, noting a shift from Israel's official stance of "strategic ambiguity"
China warships near Taiwan nearly double in 24 hours, ahead of possible wargames. China also expressed dissatisfaction with visits to Hawaii and Guam from Taiwan's president
Syria rebels name transitional prime minister, Mohammed al-Bashir. He was the previous prime minister of the statelet in the region controlled by HTS.
NK saber rattling. My sense is they might test a nuclear weapon in the next few months (15% by April?)
US transition of power soon
Belarus president confirms that nuclear weapons are stationed in Belarus, reports Russia Today.
Putin claims that its intermediate-range missile system, the Oreshnik minimizes the need of using nuclear weapons.
Ukraine war: US gives $20bn to Kyiv funded by seized Russian assets. It's deposited to a World Bank fund, where it nominally can't be spent to buy military assets (though it of course funges with civilian spending).
Zelensky says that Ukraine has lost 43K soldiers since the start of the war, with an additional 370K wounded, and that losses oon the Russian side are around 200K, with an additional ~500K injured. With a population of 37.9M for Ukraine, that corresponds to 0.11% dead, 1% wounded. Wikipedia reports similar numbers. The ratio of repoprted Ukranian to Russian losses is also very steep. The Economist instead estimates 60K to 100K deaths for Ukraine. But these are just... not that high? Very, very far from "total war".
Genetic analysis of H5N1 in kid in California: "the virus gene segments sequenced most closely resemble those segments from recent B3.13 viruses detected in California in humans, dairy cattle and poultry. This analysis supports the conclusion that the overall risk to the general public associated with the ongoing HPAI A(H5N1) outbreak in U.S. dairy cattle and poultry has not changed and remains low at this time."
UK considering ring-vaccination campaign to tackle new mpox outbreak if more cases emerge
Drone strikes UN vehicle on way to inspect Ukrainian nuclear plant
Israel arrested 30 people to whom Iran was paying relatively small amounts of money for spying and sabotage tasks
Assad fell, some good coverage here. Israel also took the opportunity to get a buffer zone in Syria.
Various European countries are stopping or revering asylum claims from Syrians
Arrakan Army now controls the Myanmar/Bangladesh border.
The Russian Federal Security Service arrests a German-Russian man for allegedly planning to sabotage a rail line in Nizhny Novgorod, Russia, on behalf of the Security Service of Ukraine.
Saudi Arabia to host 2034 world cup
NunoSempere
5mo ago
Here are some items I'm looking at this week; discussion & pushback welcome.
Microsoft reveals some details of how an unknown group bypassed their Azure AI API guardrails and created a hacking as a service scheme.
Navy Lookout looks at Russia v. NATO confrontation in the Baltic over the last few months
Mozambique opposition asks help from EU and UN in response to repression by the ruling president
One person dies from Ebola in Sierra Leone.
Finnland seems to have a bit more specific evidence on the internet and power cable cuts, reducing the degree of plausible deniability that Russia and China can claim they have.
Japan panel of experts says probability of "megaquake" in the next 30 years has risen to 80%
"Bomb Iran? Await a Trump Nuclear Deal? Topple the Regime? Israel Weighs Its Options", considers the Israeli newspaper Haaretz.
Iran reinforces their Natanz nuclear facility.
Dubai sends 68 tonnes of urgent medical supplies to Gaza
Iran is also looking to Russia to bolster its defense, and are now set to sign a 'comprehensive strategic partnership' treaty.
Iran also sent a surveillance ship out to sea, but is also holding nuclear talks with Europeans
Israel tried to embed explosivies within centrifuge components bought by Iran, but got caught.
Saudi Arabia announces plans to enrich and sell uranium
Swedish dockworkers vote to block military shipments to and from Israel
Tehran says 5,000 people working to expand Bushehr nuclear plant
China is developing methods to target Starlink satellites
Chinese Wuhan bat virus researcher continues with gain of function research
US adds Chinese company which develops open source LLMs to the entities list, "because these entities advance the People's Republic of China's military modernization through the development and integration of advanced artificial intelligence research". via @bdsqlsz
From the past: China could attack the US with EMPs.
Ukraine and Russia both had large attack waves.
Trump to meet Putin 'very quickly' after taking office
"You can't put a ship over every nautical mile of pipeline or cable -- it's an impossible task," says NATO commander. "There are approximately 50,000 big ships out there worldwide and they can drop anchors and drag them over infrastructure."
Sudan might fracture
In 2024, 444 terrorist attacks against security forces killed 685 personnel in Pakistan.
H5 Bird Flu confirmed in three additional domestic cats in Los Angeles
CDC telling laboratories to test for H5N1 specifically faster
Sierra Leone declares public health emergency over mpox after two new cases
WHO starts $1.5 billion funding appeal
Bird Flu mutations found in Texas
Study finds certain H5N1 strains in cattle linked to milder human illness
TTP abducts 18 Pakistani nuclear engineers, possibly to mask shipments of uranium to Iran.
Somebody asked last time I posted a list like this what the background was. I'm coming from an EA/forecasting background, but then realized that although there might be something to being worried about catastrophic risks, reponses to this were top-down, trying to conceptualize risks long beforehand. I grew very unsatisfied with this, particularly for AI, and ended up raising some money to run a foresight/fast response team. We produce weekly minutes here, and the below feeds into that.
Some general topics:
- Will NK detonate a nuclear weapon? When?
- To what extent is ww3 a good level of analysis for global conflicts?
- I used to not worry that much about climate change, but 100-1k people killed in my own backyard (Spain) makes me a bit more worried
- On the one had, a terrorist cooking ricin is a bit alarming. On the other hand, it shows that Al Qaeda doesn't have the chops to do anthrax or bottox. Thoughts?
- Is the WHO's global emergency corps bullshit? Seems like it's a "reserve of experts"
- I didn't know that France depended on Rosatom for nuclear fuel. Lol.
- We've been seeing mpox coming to developed nations for a while, but it's still striking to see the 1st london case.
South Korea’s military intelligence agency told lawmakers Wednesday that North Korea has likely completed preparations for its seventh nuclear test and is close to test-firing a long-range missile capable of reaching the United States.
An article looks at the growing alliance between China, Russia and other powers
Jamie Dimon, the head of the financial giant JP Morgan, makes the argument that we are already in a WW3.
Animal testing of H5N1 gives some data about how well it's adapting
Russia launches exercises simulating retaliatory strikes
Pakistan vows to emphasize military ties to Russia, and collaborates on anti-terrorism exercises.
At least 100 people have died so far (and about 1000 are "disappeared") in flash flooding of Spain’s Valencia. Bridges collapsing, and overall very striking videos on social media. The city got what would have been a freak tornado, but such events might become more common as climate change continues changing up weather patterns.
A teen who went into a murderous rampage was also cooking ricin.
Israel ordered a whole Lebanese city evacuated
Geneva convention rules are being weakened, and civilians aren't being shielded from the worst harms in Ukraine or Gaza.
Finland seized Russian assets over compensation linked to invasion of Crimea
A Boeing satellite exploded into 500 pieces. The worst case scenario in events like this is Kessler syndrome but so far reporting doesn't point to something like this, though early simulations don't look great
The US and China are fighting over dominance in the depths of the South China sea
The WHO activated the global emergency corps to deal with monkeypox. Implications unclear, as it seems more like a "reserve of experts that advise" and less like a "reserve of nurses and doctors"
A cyberattack from Iran hit an Israeli bank, and maybe credit card users generally, blocking users off.
Cyberattack against French Internet Service Provider
New agreement between Germany and the UK will tighten cooperation
Ballot box arson attacks in Oregon.
More cyberattacks in Australia
Fire in UK shipyard which builds nuclear submarines
The 2025 geomagnetic storm season might be pretty big
France depends on Russia for nuclear fuel
Some Russia military bases are empty. Some experts suggest this is for sabotage operations in the Baltics
First case of mpox Ib clade in London
Floods also caused havoc in Africa
Putin launches drills of Russia's nuclear forces simulating retaliatory strikes
India is expanding nuclear capabilities with fast breeder reactor
The US CDC issued an alert for "walking pneumonia"
A man with 120 guns and 250,000 rounds of ammunition in his home was arrested for shooting at a Democratic Party office
in Tempe
AI "Will Enhance" Nuclear Command and Control, Says nuclear command general
North Korea likely to ask for nuclear technology from Russia in exchange for troops, South Korea says. This would mirror an agreement between Iran and Russia.
The US army is preparing for a possible confrontation with China
Hezbollah new leader might agree on a ceasefire
More coral bleaching
Israel is using AI tools with little oversight to determine whether an individual is a Hamas operative.
North Korea conducted an ICBM test.
H5N1 detected in pig. Previously only in cows
NunoSempere
2yr ago
Here are some drafts I have, though not particularly CW.
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Acetylcysteine as the first treatment for a cold/mucus in Spain but not in Britain
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Ze Dreadful German In Ze Writings of Curtis Yarvin. I would respect the guy if he was a gentleman and a scholar, actually knew German and used it to better capture the Zeitgeist and express his Weltanschauung, but instead we get a Blitzkrieg of stilted phrases which annoy me.
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Comparison of The Driver (1978), Driver (2011), Baby Driver (2017). Same plot, different decades.
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Base rates of success dating docs.
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Tetlock forecasting approach vs Subjective Bayesianism
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My ideal prediction market playbook
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Optimize hard or GTFO
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A retelling of El Mio Cid, an Spanish epic poem where a recurring theme is that the hero would be a good and loyal knight if only he had a good king as lord.
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A lot of shit on OpenPhilanthropy, FTX and EA.
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Utilitarianism for Democrats
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Utilitarianism for Republicans
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Why are we not better, harder, faster, stronger
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Updating in the face of anthropic effects is possible
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Betting and consent
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How to host an autarkic/uncensorable site.
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Tetlock vs subjective bayesianism
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Something on the limits of Bayesianism
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I want to nerd out a bit on infrabayesianism / what one should do if one expects that one's hypothesis may not be able to represent future events.
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Bounties, things I would pay for
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My consulting rates
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Criticism as a demand side problem
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My preferred deviations from common English
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Some observations on the speed of qalia
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People's choices determine a pseudo ordering over people's desirability
This is more than what I would have though, typing this out.
I've been posting a stream of similar ideas on my blog (https://nunosempere.com/blog/), with an eye to those that I think could be more valuable. But if this community is particularly interested in any of these, I'll probably be happy to re-prioritize.
NunoSempere
1mo ago
Some headlines below for your consideration, focused on risks. The high level overview is that Trump's Middle East trip is going well, India/Pakistan situation not that worrying. I was also surprised that the PKK announced its disbandment. Generally things seem less tense than a couple weeks ago.
Satellite images show Russian military buildup near Finnish border
Cotton Introduces Bill to Prevent Diversion of Advanced Chips to America’s Adversaries and Protect U.S. Product Integrity
Kurdish militant group, PKK decides to disband and end armed struggle with Turkiye
On May 14, a formation of Chinese Coast Guard vessels patrolled the territorial waters around my Diaoyu Islands.
PM Modi outlines harder stance against terrorists. Says that any terrorist attack on India will be met with a strong and decisive response; that India will not tolerate "nuclear blackmail" and will respond with precise strikes; that there will be no distinction between terrorist groups and their sponsors
Türkiye Says It Is Closely Monitoring PKK Disbandment to Secure Peace
Did Pakistan agree to ceasefire after IAF bombed nuclear assets in Kairana Hills? Did it cause leak of radiation?
Iran 'ready to make nuclear concessions'
Amazon will work with AI company recently launched by Saudi Arabia’s ruler to invest upwards of $5 billion-plus in building an AI Zone in Saudi Arabia
Genocide in Syria: Jihadists Massacre Druze, Christians, 'Infidels'
Nvidia sending 18,000 of its top AI chips to Saudi Arabia
Trump, Saudis secure $600B investment deal to include billions in US defense weapons
Similar to a 600B number earlier this year
Taiwan military conducts its first live-fire test of American-made HIMARS, military expert says: its survivability is very fragile.
Nigerian state, Borno, with 6M people, bans the sale of petrol in order to reduce the mobility of jihadist militants
EU finalizes 17th sanctions package targeting Russia's shadow fleet and defense sector
German police arrest three men over alleged Russian parcel bomb plot
Inside Putin's New Kill Squad: Russian Dictator Launches 'KGB 2.0'
Amid beating from India, Baloch rebels also claim 71 attacks on Pakistani forces
No radiation leak from any nuclear facility in Pakistan, says IAEA amid buzz after Indian claims
Macron open to deploying French nuclear weapons in Europe
Estonia tried to detain vessel from Russia's shadow fleeet, did not succeed
NunoSempere
2mo ago
News on my mind this week:
Trump/China trade war intensifying. S&P 500 breaks. I was regretting not buying the dip. Trump/China trade war intensifying
Trump threatens Iran if talks don't go well
Iran and the US having talks on the nuclear file through Omani mediation
Satellite imagery shows US aircraft carrier in proximity to Iran
90% of Rafah's residential neighborhoods destroyed by Israel, Gaza authorities say
Trump to not prosecute crypto fraud
Treasury imposes sanctions on enablers of Iran's nuclear program
New Sanctions Targeting Iran's Nuclear Program (another gov source)
Israel would be 'leader' of strike if Iran doesn't give up nuclear weapons program, Trump warns
Israel's Ambassador Expelled from African Union Conference Amid Tensions Over Gaza Conflict
Israel's Smotrich says 'not even a grain of wheat' will enter Gaza
B-2 Stealth Bombers Deployed To Diego Garcia Have Been Striking Targets In Yemen
Houthis attack US and Israeli forces, mostly ineffectively
INDOPACOM boss warns PLA is conducting 'dress rehearsals' for Taiwan invasion
Taiwan fears that PLA drills may escalate into real attack 'with no time to respond'
US to revoke all South Sudan visas over failure to accept repatriation of citizens: Rubio
Zelensky says at least 155 Chinese citizens are fighting for Russia in Ukraine
Bangladeshi court sends 70 pro-Awami League lawyers to jail, on seemingly trumped up charges
Ethiopia on the brink of war?
Is War Between Ethiopia, Eritrea Brewing In Tigray?
US producing new nuclear weapons faster
Squirrels might be natural reservoirs for mpox
RFK Jr. endorses measles, mumps and rubella vaccine
Petraeus: A US strike on Iran wouldn’t stop at nuclear sites
US Space Command wants orbital weapons for 'space superiority'
Republika Srpska, the Serbian part of Bosnia , might try to secede again and join Serbia.
Islamic terrorists kill over 300 villagers in Burkina Faso
NunoSempere
6mo ago
Some stuff I'm looking at this week. The Facebook censorship policy change seems important. The Russia/EU Suwałki gap items are also pretty interesting.
Some digital brain simulations is able to predict fMRI data.
US sanctions Chinese company for cyberattacks
110K Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps forces to stage military exercise
Time to get rid of TTP once and for all, says Pakistani PM
There was aurge in armed activities by Baloch 'pro-independence' groups in 2024
Climate extremes significantly disrupted global water cycle in 2024, says the Global Water Monitor Report
"In the arena of Western politics where they’d cut their teeth, the worst imaginable outcome was that a poorly phrased missive might rile an EU country’s prime minister or upset an industry lobby group. Now, they’d inserted themselves into a bitter ethnic dispute where the worst thing that could happen was somebody burning down your house and cutting your head off."; Politico on Europe and Nagorno-Karabach
NATO to deploy nearly a dozen ships to the Baltic Sea to protect underwater infrastructure
Tibet earthquake kills more than 120 people
Jerusalem Post calling for a pre-emptive strike on Iran's nuclear program
Hamas approves Israeli list of captives to be freed as part of Gaza ceasefire deal
Israeli soldier flees Brazil amid Gaza war crimes investigation
Japanese crime leader pleads guilty to conspiring to sell nuclear materials to Iran
Deepsea internet cable connecting Taiwan to the rest of the world cut off by China.
Human Metapneumovirus (HMPV) outbreak in China; reporting somewhat sensationalistic
Russia intends to share advanced space tech with North Korea, says Blinken
Blinken reveals that the US began supplying weapons to Ukraine before the Russian invasion
Russian TV personalities, including a Duma member, talk about why Russia is cutting energy cables on national TV. "[The point] is to create problems for them, and it is creating problems", "We need the Suwałki Gap from Kaliningrad to Leningrad", "So let's go ahead and invade Estonia, right? Why just Estonia? Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania". It's pretty good TV.
Lithuania to protect said Suwalki Gap more intensely, ahead of planned disconnection of Baltic countries from Soviet-era grid shared with Russia and Belarus.
Russia says Ukraine Fired US-made missiles at Belgorod region
Techcrunch covers Chinese cyberattack capabilities. "The U.S. says Chinese government-backed hackers have — in some cases for years — been burrowing deep into the networks of U.S. critical infrastructure, including water, energy, and transportation providers. The goal, officials say, is to lay the groundwork for potentially destructive cyberattacks in the event of a future conflict between China and the United States, such as over a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan"
344K Michigan turkeys killed after detecting bird flu outbreaks
First H5 bird flu death reported in US
Parting Biden administration to remove regulations to facilitate civil nuclear cooperation with India
State Department accuses Sudan's Rapid Support Forces of committing genocide
Maoist rebels in India kill nine
North Korea does further intermediate-range missile tests
Indonesia joins BRICS
Paraguay and Venezuela suspend relations after Paraguay recognizes Edmundo González as the president
Masked men kidnap son-in-law of Edmundo González
US to maybe purchase Greenland??
International flights resume from Damascus
India confirms first case of HMPV
Zuckerberg announces end to censorship in Facebook and Instagram, asks US to pressure Europeans and others for more free speech.
NunoSempere
6mo ago
Feliz navidad all! I've appreciated your comments over these past months.
French military is withdrawing/being ousted from more African country
Chinese AI lab Deepseek releases a model on par with the previous generation, trained for "just" $5M
Nigerian media is up in arms after a survey-based report estimated 2.2M kidnappings in the past year. The report estimates this through a survey-based method: 3.2% of households reported a kidnapping in the last year. I'm not convinced by the methodology—consider lizardman's constant—though they do interview 12K households. Though a friend with Nigerian family says these numbers are plausible?
Protests in Mozambique after election results, now over 100 deaths.
Conspiracy theory that Israel exploded a small nuclear bomb in Syria.
Trump Reportedly Offers To Hold High-level Nuclear Talks With Iran
Putin says Russia is ready to compromise with Trump on Ukraine war
Putin meets Slovak PM over gas imports
UK anti-corruption minister accused of taking £4bn bribe for Russia-funded nuclear plant in Bangladesh
FEWS.net removed a famine warning for Gaza after pressure from Israel and the US (which funds FEWS).
Famine continues in Sudan
Outage between undersea cable that connects Finish and Estonian power grids
Syrian opposition factions announce that they will dissolve and merge under the authority of the Ministry of Defense.
Guatemalan police rescue at least 160 children and 40 women held by a Jewish sect
NunoSempere
7mo ago
Pretty quiet week for me, but then again I'm focused on events that could escalate. The South Korea martial law declaration was poorly executed (compare with the 1981 Spanish coup), and overall I thought it wasn't a big deal. Maybe I'm just desensitized. As the Lebanon front closes a new front emerged in Syria, which seems like a bigger deal (because it's a bigger country), but nothing decisive has happened there yet.
Russia moved some assets outside Syria, perhaps suggesting that it will not reinforce Assad.
United Healthcare CEO assassinated
Meta plans to build $10B spanning undersea internet cable for its exclusive use.
Hezbollah fires the first missiles since ceasefire
Estonia launches large-scale NATO exercises near border with Russia, together with France, the United Kingdom, the United States and Latvia. I like Estonia and consider them competent.
Catholic bishop attacked and robbed in Sudan, by the RSF. Meanwhile the pope calls for peace
Marburg virus has been spreading a bit. I previously was vaguely paying attention to it, but now it's come up often enough that I'm more actively tracking it.
UK orders 5M doses of H5 vaccine
China state news point out how the US has repeatedly promised and failed to provide security to Africa.
Pakistan army kills some jihadist insurgents
The South Korea military law declaration seems like a nothingburger.
Flu-like disease kills 143 in Congo.
French prime minister resigns. Unclear if Macron (President) will hang on to power.
Meanwhile, Senegal and Chad asked France troops to leave. France presence in Africa has declined a lot over the last few years.
China banned exports of various raw materials to the US.
NunoSempere
1mo ago
Some headlines for discussion:
4 Palestinians die after the storming of a UN food warehouse in Gaza. A distribution center from a group that agreed to work with Israeli restrictions meant to prevent aid being diverted or controlled by Hamas was also overrun. The head of this later group also resigned
Iran may pause enrichment for a year and ship off its highly enriched uranium in exchange for the US to recognize its right to enrich uranium for its civilian energy program and unfreeze funds.
Israel receives new U.S.-backed Gaza truce proposal: state media-Xinhua
Malta announces plan to officially recognize Palestine
Cholera outbreak in Sudan kills 172 in one week
Amnesty says over 10,000 killed in two years in Nigeria
Trump used offers of trade access to broker India-Pakistan ceasefire, claims U.S. Commerce Secretary
Eric Schmidt warns against China bombing US datacenters
UK announces $1B investment in cyber warfare
Ethiopia reports first mpox case
Trump admin cancels $766M in funding for moderna.
Life got in the way for the last few weeks, so I just posted the final versions of the lists I'd been sharing here on monday here
This week I'm looking at:
Trump admin to challenge Humphrey's executor
If US makes nuclear deal with Iran, Israel will not bomb it, Trump says
Iran launches IRF6 production line at Isfahan nuclear facility
Iran's military urges leader to lift fatwa prohibiting nuclear weapons
Israel allegedly used toxic gas to suffocate Palestinian fighters, captives in Gaza tunnels.
Israeli PM says he will make sure Iran doesn't have nuclear weapons
UN suspends its humanitarian work in Houthi rebels' stronghold in Yemen after more staff detentions
North Korea warns of retaliation after US nuclear submarine docks in Busan. North Korea has raised concerns over the docking of the USS Alexandria, a US Navy fast-attack nuclear submarine, in South Korea's Busan port, calling it a threat to its national security. The North Korean Ministry of Defence warned that their military is prepared to take necessary actions in response to what it describes as the US's aggressive military presence in the region, expressing alarm at the heightened tensions and potential for military confrontation on the Korean Peninsula.
Kim Jong Un slams US-South Korea-Japan partnership and vows to boost nuclear program. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has expressed that the growing security partnership between the United States, South Korea, and Japan represents a significant threat to North Korea. He reaffirmed his commitment to enhancing the country's nuclear weapons program in response to perceived military imbalances caused by this trilateral collaboration. Kim's comments, made during a speech marking the founding anniversary of the Korean People's Army, suggest that he is unlikely to engage in renewed diplomacy with the U.S. under President Trump, given the current state of stalled talks and North Korea's focus on weapon modernization.. cable belonging to Russian Rostelecom broke in the Baltic Sea
Could a rebellion in eastern Congo widen into a regional war?
Egypt to host emergency Arab summit on Palestinian displacement
First whooping cought death in the Washington since 2011
15K to 25K grebes killed by bird flu within Great Salt Lake, Utah officials say
Small model better than o1-preview?
OpenAI roadmap
The Islamic State has regrouped in Somalia — and has global ambitions.
The Somali branch has become the Islamic State’s new operational and financial hub, according to U.S. Africa Command (Africom), and local officials estimate there are as many as 1,000 militants under its command. Large numbers of foreign fighters have flowed into Somalia, establishing a formidable force that now threatens Western targets. The group has also become a key source of funding for other Islamic State affiliates around the world, which have killed thousands of people, including U.S. soldiers, according to U.N. investigators.
UN report finds brutal, systematic repression of protests in fallen Bangladesh regime
Potential spikes in AIDS-related deaths and a resurgence of untreated infections if access to antiviral drugs continues to be frozen by the US
China views the Philippines seeking to organize joint patrols with the US as a provocative move. In response, they conducted their own patrols (cn). Southern Theater Command: The People's Liberation Army Southern Theater Command conducts routine patrols in the South China Sea area. (cn)
On February 12, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) Southern Theater Command carried out routine patrols in the South China Sea, according to Air Force Senior Colonel Tian Junli. The Philippines has been attempting to engage external countries in 'joint patrols', which is viewed as a military provocation that obscures its illegal activities regarding China's maritime rights. China asserts its historical and legal claims over these territories, emphasizing that its territorial sovereignty and maritime rights are undisputed and must be respected. The Southern Theater Command remains on high alert to ensure the defense of national interests and to counter any disruptive military efforts in the region.
(I'm now parsing Chinese military news to check for precursors of a Taiwanese invasion)
Sudan confirms agreement on Russian naval base.
Trump and Putin to begin talks on ending Ukraine war
China is building four more type 093 nuclear attack submarines
NunoSempere
1mo ago
Some news items this week:
AI generated video might be directly optimizable for attention, in a way that is more scary than Tiktok
Statement from U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick on Transforming the U.S. AI Safety Institute into the Pro-Innovation, Pro-Science U.S. Center for AI Standards and Innovation
In conducting these evaluations, CAISI will focus on demonstrable risks, such as cybersecurity, biosecurity, and chemical weapons.
^ Sad day for black swans
AI required by court order to save logs?
Chinese couple charged with smuggling a biological pathogen into the U.S.
Floods in Nigeria kill over 150 people
Iran FM preparing response to potential nuclear agreement, holds call with IAEA head.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Rejects U.S. Nuclear Deal Offer
Interesting brief, similar to Sentinel
Israel strikes Syria after projectiles fired, holds Sharaa responsible
The spokesperson for China's Ministry of National Defense, Zhang Xiaogang, responded to recent comments made by the U.S. Secretary of Defense at the Shangri-La Dialogue, criticizing the U.S. for its negative portrayal of China and its military presence in Asia. Zhang condemned the U.S. for its hegemonic approach, inciting tensions in the region, and undermining China's sovereignty, particularly regarding Taiwan and the South China Sea.
Zhang emphasized that the Taiwan issue is China's internal matter and warned against any U.S. interference. He asserted China's commitment to defending its sovereignty and territorial integrity, while also highlighting China's intent to resolve disputes peacefully in the South China Sea. The statement depicted China as a proponent of peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific, opposing any form of hegemonism that disrupts regional harmony.
China's 'Silent Hunter' laser gun shooting down Ukrainian drones
US Simulates Missile Strikes on Warships at China Choke Point
'Corpses rotting in the Nile' as cholera tears through Sudan – Dominican Republic Post
Sudan's New PM Dissolves Caretaker Government One Day After Taking Office
Death toll in Nigeria jumps past 200
Ukraine and Russia agree to swap dead, wounded troops but report no progress toward ending war
'Balochistan, KP remain epicentres as Pakistan records 85 attacks in May'
'New red line': India, Pak generals exchange warnings at Shangri-La
Al-Qaida affiliate attacks Mali army bases as junta struggles to contain jihadist threat
Indonesia's health ministry issues warning over COVID-19 surge in Asia
Niger Flood: Death toll rises to 150, Tinubu asks NEMA to activate Emergency Response Centre
Trump Asks Congress to Rescind $8.3 Billion in Foreign Assistance
Trump on Musk
Elon was "wearing thin," I asked him to leave, I took away his EV Mandate that forced everyone to buy Electric Cars that nobody else wanted (that he knew for months I was going to do!), and he just went CRAZY!
Elon and Trump fighting
Who detected vaccine-derived polio in samples from children in Morobe (Papua New Guinea)
US vetoes UN Security Council demand for Gaza ceasefire
NB.1.8.1 covid variant
EpochAI database of datacenters
Whatever happened with this?
A nuclear strike on Britain is a real possibility. Here's what we need to do. Grr
NunoSempere
3mo ago
The big item this week seems like the Trump tariffs. Smoot-Hawley tariffs contributed to the start of ww2 and the deaths of tens of millions of people, says a friend. An argument in favor is that the numbers aren't meant to be taken literally not seriously, and are just there to force a negotiation. The initial formula seems pretty straightforwardly wrong (it disincentivizes e.g., Vietnam sweatshops from producing clothes for cheap). I liked this piece from Varoufakis defending what he views as Trump's plan. I'd particularly welcome steelmen and defenses of the tariffs.
Besides that, a rough list of items I've caught, particularly focused on things that could pose large risks (if you want a cleaner version of this you can check here in a couple of days):
Cholera epidemic claims over 300 lives, spread to 16 out of the country's 21 provinces.
Chinese scientific research/spy ship spotted off coast of South Australia
China Eastern Theater Command Releases Military Operation Themed Poster "Closing In"
Mali, Burkina, Niger foreign ministers due in Moscow for talks
At least 322 children killed and 609 injured in Gaza following breakdown of ceasefire: UNICEF
Hamas agrees to release five hostages in renewed ceasefire, Israel counters
Iran threatens to develop nuke weapons should U.S. attack
An adviser to Iran's supreme leader warned on Monday that if the United States or Israel were to attack Iran under the pretext of nuclear concerns, the country would be compelled to pursue the development of nuclear weapons, according to the official news agency IRNA.
Israel issues wide-ranging evacuation order for southern Gaza
UN Agency Closes Its Remaining Gaza Bakeries Amid Israel's Ongoing Aid Blockade
ARMED Forces of the Philippines (AFP) Chief of Staff General Romeo Brawner has directed the Northern Luzon Command (Nolcom) to prepare for the possible invasion of Taiwan.
China 'closes in' on Taiwan with large-scale military drills
China Launches Large-Scale Military Drills Around Taiwan
Chinese forces encircle Taiwan on three sides during drills - World
Military chief says Philippines 'inevitably' involved if Taiwan invaded
Google deepmind AI strategy
China large-scale drills
Some incredibly dumb tariff maths
Another Chinese military poster
https://imgmil.gmw.cn/attachement/png/site2/20250402/f44d305ea6dd2956e78044.png
Military drills response to separatism, mainland official says
All bakeries supported by World Food Program in Gaza closed due to lack of flour, fuel
Israel hails Hungary's decision to exit International Criminal Court
Israel's Netanyahu says army to establish new security corridor in Gaza
The Eastern Theater Command has organized forces from the army, navy, air force, and other branches to conduct joint exercises around Taiwan Island.
US opposes China's military exercises around Taiwan, warns against 'destabilizing behavior'. Back in the day they would have done a freedom of navigation exercise
Sudan's RSF confirms retreat from Khartoum, eyes 'stronger' return
A NYT investigations reveals that at times, the US was running the back office of the war for Ukraine. It also tells a story of envious Ukranian generals leading to incompetent counteroffensives. (summary here)
a New York Times investigation |reveals| that America was woven into the war far more intimately and broadly than previously understood. At critical moments, the partnership was the backbone of Ukrainian military operations that, by U.S. counts, have killed or wounded more than 700,000 Russian soldiers. (Ukraine has put its casualty toll at 435,000.) Side by side in Wiesbaden’s mission command center, American and Ukrainian officers planned Kyiv’s counteroffensives. A vast American intelligence-collection effort both guided big-picture battle strategy and funneled precise targeting information down to Ukrainian soldiers in the field.
One European intelligence chief recalled being taken aback to learn how deeply enmeshed his N.A.T.O. counterparts had become in Ukrainian operations. “They are part of the kill chain now,” he said.
Putin plans to conscript 160,000 more Russians for war with Ukraine
British Columbia man, Mohammad Jawaid Aziz, accused in conspiracy to obtain US technology for Pakistan's nuclear weapon's program
Construction of private bunkers in Spain rises 200% as fears of war in Europe grow
Germany stationing troops in Lithuania, and considering conscription
Two-year-old girl from Andhra Pradesh, India, has died after contracting H5N1 bird flu
Mpox activity in Africa on pace to pass 2024 total. Inconsistent with reporting from the WHO last week about cases waning
I generally don't like to report on announcements, but: OpenAI plans to release open-weight language model in coming months
Some stuff I'm paying attention to this week:
Drag marks on the seabed were discovered following damage to the Estlink 2 undersea power cable, which connects Finland and Estonia. This provides further evidence of sabotage.
Chinese is facing a human metapneumovirus outbreak, with authorities ramping up detection and response protocols
Palestine: a year in review.
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov shared Moscow's opposition to the deployment of Western peacekeeping forces in Ukraine
The IDF reports 891 casualties since Hamas' October 7 attack. Compare with the upwards of 40K dead Gazans.
Pakistan attacked some positions of the TTP in Afghanistan, leading to the Afghan Taliban hitting several points in Pakistan.
Iran to hold nuclear talks with France, Britain and Germany on January 13
Israel announced increase in propaganda budget by USD 150M to combat Gaza narrative
Israeli Report to UN Exposes Hamas Torture, Sexual Abuse of Hostages, Including Children
Israeli raid shuts last major hospital in north Gaza
Yemen's Houthis claim to have shot down 13th MQ-9 Reaper drone
China calls for withdrawal of U.S. missile system from the Philippines
Himalayan megadam gives China power to turn off taps in India
Leaked documents reveal that Russia has prepared target lists for over 160 sites in Japan and South Korea in the event of a major war, dating back to 2013-2014. The plans, which focus on military engagements in the Asia-Pacific region, highlight Russia's intentions to use non-nuclear cruise missiles to disrupt military operations and include both military and civilian infrastructure targets. Among the military sites are command headquarters and radar installations, while civilian targets include power plants and major transportation infrastructures like tunnels and bridges. The documents indicate that of the 160 targets, 82 are military installations, with the remainder being civilian infrastructure.
Taiwanese fighter who served in Ukraine says island unprepared for Chinese invasion
The US and Japan issued their first guidelines for extended deterrence, which outline the potential use of U.S. nuclear weapons in response to threats from China and North Korea. Final authorization remains with the US president. Seems more like something to calm Japan's nerves than anything else
The Chinese navy and Coast Guard conducted a maritime blockade drill in the Miyako Strait, a strategic waterway near Japanese territory where U.S. forces are stationed.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has directed the government and Sberbank to collaborate with China on AI, aiming to bolster Russia's capabilities, particularly military ones, like autonomous combat systems, in the face of Western sanctions.
"The people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait are one family. No one can sever our family bonds, and no one can stop the historical trend of national reunification," Xi said in a speech televised on China's state broadcaster CCTV.
Chinese-Russian air co-operation in the Artic has Norad's 'full attention'
Russia threatens more nuclear tests as World War 3 fears intensify. Russia ratified the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) in 2000, but has since withdrawn from the agreement
Russia will abandon moratorium on deploying short- and medium range milliles
Russia angry that state media blocked on Telegram in the EU
'We are waging an existential war': M23's Bertrand Bisimwa on DRC conflict
Delaware officials investigate possible bird flu outbreak after dozens of snow geese test positive. Small microcosm of how H5N1 is playing out
Sweden is planning to secure additional land for cemeteries in anticipation of potential war casualties,
Also, Scott Alexander also gave some thanks to me and my group at the end of this post on H5N1, :)-
NunoSempere
1mo ago
The stated reason was that at the time we also had an emergency response team, which reportedly was less of a fit for forecasting specifically. The actual reason is complicated/less discernable, but I get the feeling that they took a look at me and said: nah.
NunoSempere
4mo ago
India imposes direct presidential rule (rather than local elected government) in rebellious state
Drone strike on Chernobyl
IRGC holds large-scale military exercises in southwest Iran
Last week I was worried about Congo affecting more african nations. Since then:
- Uganda deploys troops in Congo to help the local government against local militias
- 4K deaths, 4K wounded in Congo civil war since Jan 21st 2025
- DR Congo seeks Chad’s support to combat M23 rebels: Report
- Bukavu, the second largest city in DR Congo falls to M23
- US imposed sanctions to M23 members
And in Sudan:
- Rapid Support Forces in Sudan kill 200 civilians in three days, are considering establishing their own government.
- Sudan’s army-backed government recalled its ambassador from Kenya in protest over Kenya reportedly supporting Sudan's Rapid Support Forces.
Transmissible brain disease is spreading through Canadian deer.
US seizes weapons shipment to Yemen's Houthis from Iran; Iran denies provenance.
NK building capability for missiles to reach US
South Korea stages military drills near inter-Korean maritime border, and air drills with the United States
Zelensky warns of Russian invasion of NATO countries.
US/Russia holding talks without EU or Ukraine
Stray Russian drones hit Moldova and Romania
Former Bangladeshi PM Hasina accusses Yunus of deploying terrorists, pledges to return and avenge police officers. This seems unlikely, as she doesn't control the state apparatus. However, if she does return, it would lead to wider turmoil in the region.
Southern California has a 36% chance of a M7.5 or greater earthquake in the next 30 years," Elizabeth Cochran with the USGS Earthquake Science Center says. This would wreak havoc upon the state's most populated cities, causing roughly 1,800 deaths, 50,000 injuries, and $200 billion in damage.
How does this:
The President and the Attorney General, subject to the President’s supervision and control, shall provide authoritative interpretations of law for the executive branch. The President and the Attorney General’s opinions on questions of law are controlling on all employees in the conduct of their official duties. No employee of the executive branch acting in their official capacity may advance an interpretation of the law as the position of the United States that contravenes the President or the Attorney General’s opinion on a matter of law, including but not limited to the issuance of regulations, guidance, and positions advanced in litigation, unless authorized to do so by the President or in writing by the Attorney General.
affect injunctions and rulings? In a plain reading,
-
if the Trump administration does something,
-
and a judge disagrees and issues an injuction and then a ruling,
-
the Trump administration can still disagree with that
-
Until it goes up to an appelate court, and then to the Supreme Court.
At which step does the president/AG's interpretation cease to be binding?.
Washington post article on the topic: https://archive.is/XIMum
Geologists warn of an "overdue" very large earthquake for Istambul, and warn that Turkey doesn't have the infrastructure to mitigate it, and millions could die.. Die Erdbebenwarte Kandilli gibt die Wahrscheinlichkeit für ein Beben mit einer Stärke über 7 bis zum Jahr 2030 mit 60 Prozent an.
H5N1 also in India. They were doing less testing so they've caught it later. Or it could be that it only reached them now (unlikely). Authorities in the southern Indian state of Andhra Pradesh have issued an alert and a series of containment measures following the outbreak of bird flu (Avian Influenza H5N1), officials said Thursday.. The outbreak has been reported in Eluru, West Godavari, East Godavari, Krishna and NTR districts of the state, where over half a million poultry birds had died over the last three days
CDC conducted a small survey of 150 bovine veterinary practitioners; 3 had H5N1 antibodies. Also wow is this very little testing still.
Nevada and Ohio report first human cases of bird flu; nominal egg prices hit record high – The Moderate Voice
41 Former Bangladesh Police Officials Arrested Over Crackdown On Hasina Ouster Protests
NunoSempere
9mo ago
Things I'm tracking (besides Lebanon)
Geopolitics
Iraq also attacked Israel https://www.palestinechronicle.com/iraqi-resistance-drones-attack-israel-in-first-sirens-heard-in-bisan/
China seems to be producing drones for Russia https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-has-secret-war-drones-project-china-intel-sources-say-2024-09-25/
Hezbollah launched a ballistic missile to Tel Aviv. It was intercepted https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/lebanons-hezbollah-says-it-launched-rocket-targeting-mossad-base-near-tel-aviv-2024-09-25/ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/09/25/israel-hamas-war-latest-news-hezbollah-64/ https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/9/25/hezbollah-fires-missile-at-mossad-hq-near-tel-aviv
UK sends troops to Cyprus https://www.reuters.com/world/britain-urges-nationals-leave-lebanon-2024-09-24/
Bio
India confirms mpox clade Ib case https://www.aol.co.uk/news/india-confirms-first-case-dangerous-152803698.html?guccounter=1
I have no horse in this race, but: as a small case study, the Effective Altruism forum has been impoverished over the last few years by not being lenient with valuable contributors when they had a bad day.
In a few cases, I later learnt that some longstanding user had a mental health breakdown/psychotic break/bipolar something or other. To some extent this is an arbitrary category, and you can interpret going outside normality through the lens of mental health, or through the lens of "this person chose to behave inappropriately". Still, my sense is that leniency would have been a better move when people go off the rails.
In particular, the best move seems to me a combination of:
- In the short term, when a valued member is behaving uncharacteristically badly, stop them from posting
- Followup a week or a few weeks later to see how the person is doing
Two factors here are:
- There is going to be some overlap in that people with propensity for some mental health disorders might be more creative, better able to see things from weird angles, better able to make conceptual connections.
- In a longstanding online community, people grow to care about others. If a friend goes of the rails, there is the question of how to stop them from causing harm to others, but there is also the question of how to help them be ok, and the second one can just dominate sometimes.
NunoSempere
2yr ago
Kudos.
NunoSempere
4d ago
Here are some topics I'm looking at this week; as a draft of the Sentinel minutes. Curious to get thoughts.
Geopolitics
Americas
Bill Gates warns about the lives lost because of US aid cuts, though he relies on a study on The Lancet
USAID programs now being run by State Department as agency ends operations
Mr. Abrego's Account of Torture at CECOT in El Salvador
Europe
Russian use of chemical weapons against Ukraine 'widespread', Dutch defence minister says
613 killed at Gaza aid distribution sites, near humanitarian covoys, says UN
North Korea to send 30,000 more troops to help Russia fight Ukraine
Over 210,000 Russians signed contracts for war in Ukraine in first half of 2025, Moscow says
Middle East
Iran
United States expands military base in Saudi Arabia
A military base has been established by the U.S. near the Red Sea in Saudi Arabia, with construction beginning in early 2022. The base, known as the 'Jenkins Logistics Support Base,' has been quietly growing and is strategically located 30 kilometers from a significant Saudi port, suggesting preparations for a prolonged military conflict with Iran. Recent updates show substantial expansion since last year, including new buildings and enhanced security measures, alongside a continuous necessity for U.S. military supplies in response to escalating tensions in the region, such as Iran's attacks on military assets.
Iran Halts Cooperation with UN Nuclear Watchdog
US says its strikes degraded Iran's nuclear programme by one to two years
Iran president Pezeshkian reportedly orders to suspend cooperation with IAEA
US must rule out more strikes before talks can resume: Iran
US lawmakers seek to send B-2s, bunker busters to Israel if Iran takes nuclear path
Gaza
Gaza starvation killings: UN says deliberately shot hungry civilians
Gaza: Over 400 Palestinians killed around private aid hubs, UN rights office says
Hamas submits ‘positive response’ to ceasefire proposal in major step toward a deal
Donald Trump Says Israel Agrees to 60-Day Gaza Ceasefire
Yemen
Asia
Satellite evidence points to heightened operations at N. Korean nuclear site
North Korea's uranium refinery in Pyongsan has shown increased activity amidst ongoing efforts to strengthen its nuclear arsenal. Utilizing satellite imagery and thermal infrared analysis, recent findings indicate that operations at the facility have intensified, particularly at night, with the facility's waste management practices also experiencing notable changes. The site consists of three main zones: a uranium mine, a refining factory, and a settling pond for wastewater, all of which are reportedly well-fortified against potential air strikes, though concerns over their effectiveness persist.
Analysis reveals that the Pyongsan facility is the only operational uranium refinery in North Korea following the reported closure of another site in Pakchon. An uptick in wastewater release into the settling pond has been detected, raising environmental concerns ahead of the rainy season. Additionally, alarming reports of a mysterious illness affecting local workers and residents have prompted calls for a thorough investigation into the health impacts and environmental conditions surrounding the refinery.
India/Pakistan
Bangladesh tribunal hands 6-month jail term in first verdict against Hasina
Africa
Looming funding shortfall could reverse global progress against AIDS, warns UNAIDS chief
200 Christians killed in Nigeria by Fulani herdsmen
Suspected Boko Haram insurgents step up attacks in Nigeria
Congo, M23 rebels plan return to Qatar talks amid Trump pressure
Bio
Tech and AI
Global Economy
Early Fed chair nomination could rattle markets - Reuters
World Bank warns that 39 fragile states are falling further behind as conflicts grow, get deadlier
Misc
Reversal in ocean circulation
Major reversal in ocean circulation detected in the Southern Ocean
Two people perish in Spain's heatwave
Stuff I'm tracking this week
Top items:
T-Mobile hacked as part of a broader Chinese effort.
Nearly 100 trucks carrying food for Palestinians were looted in Gaza. Hamas security forces retaliated by killing over 20 gang members involved in the looting. Israel cited distribution challenges as the main obstacle in aiding Gaza.
China-Pakistan to conduct joint military/anti-terrorist exercise
Maybe worth purchasing big ticket items soon, before Trump tariffs hit.
DeepSeek will release large models
Russia / Ukraine heating up a bit.
volcano erupted in Indonesia.
US Secret Service using data from phones to locate users, without a warrant
Talks between Hezbollah, Lebanon and Israel are ongoing, with talks being between Israel and Lebanon, and Israel wanting to preserve its ability to attack Hezbollah if needed.
Biden authorizes Ukraine to use US-supplied longer range missiles for deeper strikes inside Russia
Deutsche Welle reports that a chance in Russia's nuclear doctrine preceeded the US allowing Ukraine to use long-range weapons.
300 Colombian mercenaries killed in Ukraine, out of 500 that went there
Russia has begun production of nuclear shelters
Russia Today, a Russian state-affiliated media outlet summarizes the key changes in Russia's new nuclear policy
CNN looks at some satellite images of the infrastructure damage in Ukraine
China and Russia are acting together in the Artic
Special US-Russia Hotline To Defuse Crises Not In Use, Says Kremlin
Zelensky gave an interview to Fox News, in which he recognizes that Ukraine probably wouldn't be able to survive without US support.
Greek Intelligence declassifies reports on 1974 coup and Turkish invasion
Pakistan starts a larger operation against Balochistan terrorists
US arms stockpiles strained by Ukraine, Israel support, says the head of US Indo-Pacific Command.
First case of clade I mpox diagnosed in the US
Trump seemed to confirm on Truth Social that he'd declare a national emergency and use military assets to institute a mass deportation program
WHO added another mpox vaccine to their emergency listing. This allows countries & procurement processes to coordinate a bit better around acquiring it.
EU isn't cutting antibiotic use fast enough to slow antibiotic resistance, the EU CDC says
H5N1 bird flu infects six more humans in California, Oregon
Here is an overview of nuclear events
Here are a few bullet points on the "Talibanization of Bangladesh"
More options
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