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PaperclipPerfector  14d ago (text post)   1183 thread views

Transnational Thursday for November 21, 2024

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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NYT produces a shocker: https://archive.is/4G56L

Several officials even suggested that Mr. Biden could return nuclear weapons to Ukraine that were taken from it after the fall of the Soviet Union. That would be an instant and enormous deterrent. But such a step would be complicated and have serious implications.

Where does America find these people? Either the officials or the journalists are crazy. It would indeed be very complicated to get nukes that were returned to Russia into Ukraine's hands. Not to mention the delivery systems, you can't exactly slip an SS-25 mobile launcher in a brown paper bag and slip it under the toilet door. And how the hell would it deter Russia, as opposed to igniting a pre-emptive strike against this 'deterrent' before it can be fully established? Does Ukraine have any early warning systems set up for such close distances, against Russia? There's no safe strategic depth in Ukraine to establish these weapons...

People wonder at my scepticism of the official war narratives when this is the sort of stuff we get in the for-popular-consumption media.

I think our dear and gone friend Hlynka did actually suggest, to paraphrase, handing Ukraine their nukes back with an apology note attached.

If US policymaking is at the level of random forum discussions, there are serious problems.

I really think it's dangerous if there are crazy people in the room when important decisions are being made, especially with regard to nuclear strategy.

If you think about it for five minutes, it opens up such a big can of worms... Do we say we're giving nukes to Ukraine and warn Russia? Do we hope they don't see them until they're set up (like Russia hoped during the Cuban Missile Crisis)? What do we do if they pre-emptively nuke them and take them out? What are the second-order effects if this strategy 'works', does Russia hand over nukes to Yemen and Venezuela? That'll raise oil prices! What if Russia continues the war anyway, daring Ukraine to start a nuclear war with a nuclear superpower?

There's such a deficit of sanity. We spent years fighting in Afghanistan, on a nation-building campaign, trying to win hearts and minds. Meanwhile our Afghan allies were raping children on a huge scale and some group of officers or officials decided that this wasn't worth cracking down on: cultural practices, just ignore it soldiers, leave it to the Afghan government... How the hell do you win hearts and minds when the friends you're arming, funding and training are raping children? This isn't just an isolated error, there's a whole host of monumentally retarded things we were doing there - that's why we lost the war.

https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/soldier-punished-for-interfering-in-child-assault-by-afghan/

What if the genius strategists behind the war in Afghanistan (or whoever signed off on hiring them) are in charge of nuclear strategy?

If you know anything about mixed martial arts, you'll know the name Conor McGregor. If you're not resident in Ireland, you may be unaware of what a generally scummy and loathsome person he is: the "Controversies" section on his Wikipedia page is nearly 500 words longer than the "Professional mixed martial arts career" section. He's also running for President next year. It need hardly be said that I'm having a hard time envisioning a worse brand ambassador for the Irish nation (I would sincerely prefer Barbie Kardashian, Gerry Adams, Dustin the Turkey or Jedward over him), and it infuriates me that in many cases he's literally the only thing non-Irish people know about our country.

After numerous criminal investigations for rape and/or sexual assault which were dropped for lack of evidence, one such complainant, Nikita Hand, sued him in a civil action. The jury has found in Hand's favour, and now that the trial is over, the injunction on the media has been lifted and they are permitted to disclose various details about the case, including the fact that Hand alleges that, after she filed the civil action, masked men broke into her home and stabbed her partner.

One reaction to the outcome of the trial I found particularly sharp was from Waterford Whispers News, a satire website which aspires to be sort of like the parochial Irish equivalent of the Onion. Between 2013-16, the website did not miss, and they'd have a wittingly biting take on virtually every major news story in Ireland. After that golden era the website kind of fell off and stopped seeing nearly as much traction on social media. Much like their main source of inspiration, they dropped all pretensions to neutrality and pretty much openly announced that their satire would only be a means to advance a socially progressive worldview, to the point that, earlier this year, they were literally selling merch with the dictionary definition of the word "woke", defined as "1. Alert to prejudice and injustice 2. Not a prick" - what is this, 2014? (That one's no longer available from their webshop; guess it wasn't a top seller.) But occasionally they can still knock the ball out of the park, as with this post: "'Keep Women Safe': Hundreds of Far Right Nationalists Protest Outside Rapist Conor McGregor's House". The joke being, of course, that the kinds of working-class activists attending anti-immigration protests ostensibly in the name of protecting Irish women from predatory foreign men tend to be fervent admirers of Conor McGregor.

neutrality and pretty much openly announced that their satire would only be a means to advance a socially progressive worldview, t

Seeing how rapidly Ireland is embracing migration and progressive causes , is there any.. actual opposition, in Ireland, to the idea of making the country as diverse and consequently as low trust as New York ?

Looking at the 'controversies' section, it does make him look like political material. After all, he's probably not setting those cars on fire by himself, which implies he's part of some sort of organisation, which is definitely not progressive.

Maybe your idea of "political material" is a vicious coke-addled rapist, with such a short temper that he has been convicted for physically assaulting a fifty-year-old man for the crime of refusing a glass of whiskey he offered him. It is not mine.

which implies he's part of some sort of organisation, which is definitely not progressive.

It's called a "gang".

What about the first question @No_one posed - what's the nature of the opposition in Ireland?

I'm not sure if I understand the question.

Stuff I'm tracking this week

Top items:

  • Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea cut, Germany and Finland fear, sabotage suspected
  • Ukraine fired UK, US missiles into Russia. Russia retaliated by sending an ICBM-lite missile into Ukraine
  • Sweden sent a brochure to its citizens "in case of crisis or war". Seems worth reading
  • The Adani empire is stumbling a bit.

T-Mobile hacked as part of a broader Chinese effort.

Nearly 100 trucks carrying food for Palestinians were looted in Gaza. Hamas security forces retaliated by killing over 20 gang members involved in the looting. Israel cited distribution challenges as the main obstacle in aiding Gaza.

China-Pakistan to conduct joint military/anti-terrorist exercise

Maybe worth purchasing big ticket items soon, before Trump tariffs hit.

DeepSeek will release large models

Russia / Ukraine heating up a bit.

volcano erupted in Indonesia.

US Secret Service using data from phones to locate users, without a warrant

Talks between Hezbollah, Lebanon and Israel are ongoing, with talks being between Israel and Lebanon, and Israel wanting to preserve its ability to attack Hezbollah if needed.

Biden authorizes Ukraine to use US-supplied longer range missiles for deeper strikes inside Russia

Deutsche Welle reports that a chance in Russia's nuclear doctrine preceeded the US allowing Ukraine to use long-range weapons.

300 Colombian mercenaries killed in Ukraine, out of 500 that went there

Russia has begun production of nuclear shelters

Russia Today, a Russian state-affiliated media outlet summarizes the key changes in Russia's new nuclear policy

CNN looks at some satellite images of the infrastructure damage in Ukraine

China and Russia are acting together in the Artic

Special US-Russia Hotline To Defuse Crises Not In Use, Says Kremlin

Zelensky gave an interview to Fox News, in which he recognizes that Ukraine probably wouldn't be able to survive without US support.

Greek Intelligence declassifies reports on 1974 coup and Turkish invasion

Pakistan starts a larger operation against Balochistan terrorists

US arms stockpiles strained by Ukraine, Israel support, says the head of US Indo-Pacific Command.

First case of clade I mpox diagnosed in the US

Trump seemed to confirm on Truth Social that he'd declare a national emergency and use military assets to institute a mass deportation program

WHO added another mpox vaccine to their emergency listing. This allows countries & procurement processes to coordinate a bit better around acquiring it.

EU isn't cutting antibiotic use fast enough to slow antibiotic resistance, the EU CDC says

H5N1 bird flu infects six more humans in California, Oregon

Here is an overview of nuclear events

Here are a few bullet points on the "Talibanization of Bangladesh"

"300 Colombian mercenaries killed in Ukraine, out of 500 that went there"

This is according to Russia, btw.

" “We have some records, but what the Russian government informed us—and this requires verification—is that about 500 Colombians participated on the Ukrainian side. Of these, around 100 have returned to Colombia, 100 have deserted, and roughly 300 to 310 have been killed,” Murillo said."

Nearly 100 trucks carrying food for Palestinians were looted in Gaza. Hamas security forces retaliated by killing over 20 gang members involved in the looting. Israel cited distribution challenges as the main obstacle in aiding Gaza.

Here I'd like to call out the fact that I don't see a reason why Hamas is any more entitled to have the food than the "gang members". Hamas is a gang like any other, maybe the largest and the most violent one, and maybe having the most success in controlling the food sent from abroad and thus maintaining its edge over other gangs - but I don't see why they would be allowed any more legitimacy than any other gang. The main obstacle is, indeed, that the food ends up in hands of violent gangs - either Hamas or other one - and the only way to get fed is to either associate with one of the gangs or to pay them for the food, and if you don't want to do either, you get no food. This is a huge problem but we shouldn't pretend Hamas is any different, and they have legitimate claim while "looters" do not.

Hamas is (still?) the governing power in Gaza, having been voted into power by the population in as fair and free an election as it is probably possible to get in Gaza. Despite all their corruption, authoritarianism, and just plain bad decision making, that still gives them an edge over the other competing gangs. Plus, being bigger and stronger than the rest counts for something on its own.

"Governing" here is a very murky term. Sure, they are the biggest and the meanest of the gangs, but so what? Among any set of gangs, there would be one that is the biggest and the meanest. They didn't have any process that resembles free election even remotely - they had a gang war with FATAH in which they emerged victorious, and slaughtered or exiled anybody who was affiliated with the competing gang. Being the strongest gang counts for something, sure, but that something shouldn't earn them any legitimacy in the eyes of people who should know better.

Uh, what do you think a ‘government’ is other than the biggest, strongest gang?

I don't necessarily disagree, but to me the most salient fact is that there is not a clearly dominant gang that can keep the peace.

he'd declare a national emergency and use military assets to institute a mass deportation program

That makes a lot of sense. Military knows how to house, feed and clothe large groups of people, and has logistical chains to do stuff like that. Why reinvent the wheel?

A few hours ago, Russia fired an ICBM with a MIRV warhead at Ukraine. It looks like it was just the kinetic vehicle with no nuclear warheads.

Not an ICBM, a mid-range MIRV missile.

It looks like it was just the kinetic vehicle with no nuclear warheads.

Is that supposed to be surprising? Russia has been conducting missile strikes for years with nuclear-capable missiles (not least because most of their modern missiles are nuclear-capable).

Russia using an ICBM is just a symbolic tit-for-tat for the US ATACMs range release. It's not a particularly cost-efficient delivery platform, but is intended to play into the recent implicit saber-ratling as a demonstration of capability.

It’s not surprising, but I think it‘s worth mentioning when talking about an ICBM launch.

Putin apparently now says it was an IRBM, aimed at some kind of missile factory in retaliation for Biden's long-range weapon approval:

https://weapons.substack.com/p/the-fake-icbm-ukrainian-propaganda

Pivdenmash is indeed a large missile factory, and has been repeatedly attacked during the course of the war.

Did it hit?

Yes, there is video footage of multiple MIRVs hitting the ground. There do not appear to be any interceptions. It looks like the MIRVs were targeted at an empty area and not any particular target, although I have heard chatter that it may have been a Ukrainian military facility. Given the apparent lack of conventional or nuclear explosives in the MIRVs, I don’t think there was any significant damage.

I don’t think there was any significant damage.

Sending a "We can get you" message does quite a bit of damage on morale and the government image.

Russia has consistently had full coverage of entire Ukraine territory with its weaponry, there's nothing new in that. Ukrainian government is well aware of that fact.

Putin says it's an "Oreshnik" missile and claims Western defense capabilities are useless against it.

random X link

claims Western defense capabilities are useless against it.

well, MAD works for nuclear-armed countries

It certainly dropped an impressive array of fireworks, with no apparent defensive response...

Seeing how few interceptions were visible during the latest attack on Israel, and that the missiles use there were a tier above (SM-3, THAAD, Arrow) and none of them was ever mentioned as being deployed to Ukraine ?

Why'd you expect a single interception? Patriot can intercepts Scuds, missile with vastly lower velocity and predictable trajectories.

Why'd you expect a single interception?

I don't -- I think the point Putin is making here is that he can put missiles anywhere in Europe and nobody will intercept them?

That has been the state of affairs since.. forever, basically. Iranians showed off quite precise missile back after Soleimani was killed. That should've made it clear Russians have or could have the same thing easily.

Anyone with half a brain understand slapping one more stage on a missile and maybe hardening it a bit against re-entry heating isn't a great deal.

And as to ABM, the mechanics of saturation attacks are well understood, as is the disparity between attack and defense.

Anyone with half a brain

I think the intended audience is the other segment of the population...

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