hydroacetylene
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User ID: 128
hydroacetylene
1hr ago
What are the actual odds that Alberta secedes? How likely are Saskatchewan, Manitoba to go with it? Is it even possible for the non-Vancouver parts of BC to go?
hydroacetylene
3hr ago
I agree that there is a possible future democrat who will have strong border controls. But this scenario isn’t very likely; Obama still had a reservoir of moderate-ish(or at least willing to take orders) mid level talent and that’s increasingly difficult for democrats, for one thing, but also polarization just drives the parties farther apart- Trump has stronger border enforcement than Bush ever did(or tried to do). Likewise Biden had border chaos that Obama didn’t even gesture at.
Politics is unpredictable. Democrats could run to the center. But they’re currently refusing to moderate on trans issues, which are even more lose-lose for them.
hydroacetylene
6hr ago
Tatishe Nteta" strongly suggests that the author's race is sub-Saharan African
It also strongly suggests he was raised to be an activist. Normie Africans name their kids things like ‘John’ or ‘Mary’ and normie AADOS use names which are, yes, dumb, but recognizably Anglo.
hydroacetylene
6hr ago
The motte will always appear more socially conservative than the media on some issues because it is willing to look at what actually happened in eg red state maternal mortality cases and not simply hallucinate a scenario. But the motte is not pro-traditional values on the whole.
hydroacetylene
22hr ago
Yes, I just said that 16 as the generally agreed upon compromise is not clearly worse than 18. It simply happens that one is generally agreed upon and the other is not. But, well, something has to be generally agreed upon.
hydroacetylene
23hr ago
They weren't but, uh, it's the Iberian peninsula. It's like an outpost of the Balkans.
hydroacetylene
23hr ago
Have we considered that while Joe Biden and his grand vizier Ron Klein didn't want open borders, the increasing radicalism of the democratic party(and I specifically mean the party, not the base) made it near-impossible to implement non-open-borders policies due to staffers and undersecretaries?
In any case, I suspect the de facto equilibrium is 'when there's a democrat in the white house the borders are open, even to serial killers claiming asylum from bigfoot, but the Texas governor shuts it down and the border patrol just lets him, regardless of actual orders'.
hydroacetylene
23hr ago
helped allay Southern fears that the North would come for slavery (at least for a time)
In 1789? Abolitionism didn't really get going until the 19th century was well on.
hydroacetylene
23hr ago
Translated to American sensibilities, imagine Philadelphia succeeding, the great colonial cities, home of the liberty bell, the continental congress etc. and insisting you have nothing in common, you New Yorkers and Georgians just oppressed them and they don't even want to speak English anymore, but create some new literary tradition etc. etc.
The American national identity is not based on common descent from some decrepit yankee cities.
hydroacetylene
23hr ago
Sure, Putin identified Ukraine as a threat to his regime, but the story is just a bit more complex than 'democracy spreading into the Russian sphere'. Ukraine recently overthrew a Russian-aligned guy before the first invasion, after all.
hydroacetylene
23hr ago
Malaysia, Indonesia and Australia can still keep China cut off from maritime trade with Europe and Africa in that scenario.
Chinese civilization expands slowly, it doesn't have the booms associated with the west or the assabiyah cycle of Islam. And the three probably have to work together(with Singapore, too) to blockade China; it just needs one ally out of the three.
hydroacetylene
1d ago
What makes you think republicans(other than Trump) actually want a no illegal immigration ever situation akin to Australia or Japan? They want to signal to their base, not eat a welfare bill, and have the ability to tell them to go home when they’re no longer useful.
hydroacetylene
1d ago
Why now? Macron has been this way for a while, he’s currently distracted trying to influence the upcoming conclave, and there’s no elections coming up.
hydroacetylene
1d ago
At a certain level, there are things we make people do. ‘Providing for your kids’ is one of them. It’s beyond civilizational capacity to make him do it well, so we don’t- send x amount of money is a perfectly reasonable amount of state coercion.
hydroacetylene
1d ago
Yes I just said that. Epstein was bad. But there’s no evidence of him being bad in a specific way that it’s often framed as.
hydroacetylene
1d ago
Yeah, the daughters of impoverished single mothers living in Hispanic-majority neighborhoods are probably going to get taken advantage of in their teens regardless, and high rates of prostitution can just be expected.
People focus on Epstein because they love hearing about aristocrats- the good, the bad, and the ugly. If the IBEW was arranging underaged mistresses for their members it might be a scandal but it wouldn’t be a front page news story(…Rotherham). This is elites, so it is.
hydroacetylene
1d ago
Nah, hé fucked around(like actually literally) and found out. He could’ve married her to fix it(it’s unlikely to me that a woman would turn down a marriage offer from a man she’s already having a kid with- the exceptions are probably AWFLs, not illegals).
hydroacetylene
1d ago
Eighteen is the compromise between ‘c’mon now, teenagers obviously need the guidance of their elders’ and ‘they can’t stay kids forever’ we’ve already settled on as a society. Is it intrinsically better than 16? Only by already being established. For that reason I don’t see that changing.
hydroacetylene
1d ago
What’s the advantage of this over ‘loser pays’?
Personal injury lawyers would take a haircut, but I think that’s a good thing. The ghetto lottery should be harder to get.
hydroacetylene
2d ago
What kind of sob story gets you to erase video evidence and bring down a huge shitstorm on yourself with a high profile prisoner? 'Bro I'll totally pay you after you've done this insanely illegal thing'?
Do you know any prison guards? When they're offered money for bringing in cigarettes, alcohol, etc, the money is paid up front and the guard is simply not hired anymore if they don't follow through.
They also don't have particularly prestigious jobs and most of them know that they never will. Large payments to people being paid not very much to do a job which isn't socially esteemed have a way of changing their attitudes. Hell, in-kind payments can do it.
hydroacetylene
2d ago
It would have been an expensive and high risk operation to shut so many mouths.
Prison guards don't make very much and the people in a position to want them to shut up are literal billionaires with government connections. They are also unlikely to think that squealing is a good idea when they just took a bribe to shut up about a murder.
hydroacetylene
2d ago
I bought a house from a homeflipper who had bought it from a convicted pedophile. This was explained to me by my neighbors, who cheerfully explained that his story of 'oh I had a 17 year old girlfriend at 22' was obviously false because nobody would've cared.
Anyways they beat him up and forced him to sell after somebody found out the truth, I don't know how, that he'd molested a ten year old.
hydroacetylene
2d ago
they should face the same crushing punishments inflicted on ordinary people who have sex with underage women, regardless of whatever ameliorating circumstances there are.
??? These billionaires lost in the court of public opinion, which seems to be the biggest part of the punishment for statutory.
hydroacetylene
2d ago
These are people who may have decent incomes and jobs, like involving contracting , HVAC installation, and small business,
HVAC installers do not get paid well(and are not particular fans of Trump, either), techs get paid well- and they don't believe Qanon(although those of them whose wives stay home as opposed to being nurses or teachers are married to people who do). Small business owners(you know that 'contractor' is literally just a construction business owner, right?) likewise do not believe in Qanon, although they are fans of Trump and often believe in other conspiracy theories(often centering around insider trading to control republicans).
For context, Texas secession varies from 30% to 66% depending on the recent news, wording of the survey, etc. That makes this sound like the same order of improbability.
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