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PaperclipPerfector  6mo ago (text post)   5043 thread views

Transnational Thursday for May 15, 2025

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Some headlines below for your consideration, focused on risks. The high level overview is that Trump's Middle East trip is going well, India/Pakistan situation not that worrying. I was also surprised that the PKK announced its disbandment. Generally things seem less tense than a couple weeks ago.

Satellite images show Russian military buildup near Finnish border

Cotton Introduces Bill to Prevent Diversion of Advanced Chips to America’s Adversaries and Protect U.S. Product Integrity

Kurdish militant group, PKK decides to disband and end armed struggle with Turkiye

On May 14, a formation of Chinese Coast Guard vessels patrolled the territorial waters around my Diaoyu Islands.

PM Modi outlines harder stance against terrorists. Says that any terrorist attack on India will be met with a strong and decisive response; that India will not tolerate "nuclear blackmail" and will respond with precise strikes; that there will be no distinction between terrorist groups and their sponsors

Türkiye Says It Is Closely Monitoring PKK Disbandment to Secure Peace

Did Pakistan agree to ceasefire after IAF bombed nuclear assets in Kairana Hills? Did it cause leak of radiation?

Iran 'ready to make nuclear concessions'

Amazon will work with AI company recently launched by Saudi Arabia’s ruler to invest upwards of $5 billion-plus in building an AI Zone in Saudi Arabia

Genocide in Syria: Jihadists Massacre Druze, Christians, 'Infidels'

Nvidia sending 18,000 of its top AI chips to Saudi Arabia

Trump, Saudis secure $600B investment deal to include billions in US defense weapons

Similar to a 600B number earlier this year

Taiwan military conducts its first live-fire test of American-made HIMARS, military expert says: its survivability is very fragile.

Nigerian state, Borno, with 6M people, bans the sale of petrol in order to reduce the mobility of jihadist militants

EU finalizes 17th sanctions package targeting Russia's shadow fleet and defense sector

German police arrest three men over alleged Russian parcel bomb plot

Inside Putin's New Kill Squad: Russian Dictator Launches 'KGB 2.0'

Amid beating from India, Baloch rebels also claim 71 attacks on Pakistani forces

No radiation leak from any nuclear facility in Pakistan, says IAEA amid buzz after Indian claims

Macron open to deploying French nuclear weapons in Europe

Estonia tried to detain vessel from Russia's shadow fleeet, did not succeed

Here is the more polished "global risks brief" my team creates from the items above (and others). The executive summary is:

Moody’s downgraded the US credit rating as the US budget deficit grows and US borrowing costs rise. House Republicans are advancing a budget that would increase the deficit further. Meanwhile, China is reducing its holdings of US Treasuries and its dependencies on foreign components in its supply chains as it seeks to de-risk its economy from the US and the West.

Google announced a new coding agent, AlphaEvolve, that has creative problem-solving abilities. Gulf states agreed to more than $1T in US investments and joint enterprises during a visit by Trump to the Middle East, including joint AI ventures. Forecasters estimated a 28% chance (range, 25-30%) that the US will pass a 10-year ban on states regulating AI by the end of 2025.

Negotiations between the US and Iran continue. Iran has signaled willingness to limit uranium enrichment and allow inspections in exchange for sanctions being lifted. Forecasters estimated that there is a 46% chance (range, 40%-50%) that the US and Iran will sign an agreement about Iran’s nuclear program by the end of August.

The ceasefire between India and Pakistan is holding. The Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in Turkey has officially disbanded. Israel has launched a new, major offensive in Gaza. Putin did not attend the first direct ceasefire talks with Ukraine since early in the war.

Estonia tried to detain vessel from Russia's shadow fleeet, did not succeed

Why is it that these very small and weak countries in the Baltic are so eager to go all in on 'we hate Russia' and make incidents? Estonia does not have any combat aircraft whatsoever. Their military is roughly equivalent to the Oklahomah national guard, who do actually have some aircraft. This is not really a good position to be trying to seize Russian ships. Seizing other people's ships is cringeworthy behaviour whether it's the Houthis, Estonia or America but Estonia's by far the weakest player.

'Scream hysterically and wave a tiny stick' doesn't seem like a great strategy, I suppose that it's popular domestically.

Estonia has asserted its right to inspect tankers transiting the Baltic under the international laws for maritime protection, which was also backed up by a European Commission decision requiring tankers to provide proof of insurance when transiting European waters. Last month, Estonia briefly held a tanker which it asserted was operating with a false registry and from the reports yesterday the Estonian Navy again attempted to inspect another suspicious tanker.

The crude oil tanker identifying as Jaguar (105,000 dwt) registered in Gabon was inbound for Primorsk, Russia when the Estonian Navy contacted the vessel. The Equasis database reflects the same vessel as the Argent, registered in Guinea-Bissau with unknown managers and a registered owner in Mauritius.

Yes, how dare Estonia... attempt to inspect a tanker, possibly one traveling in its territorial waters? And not even one sailing under the Russian flag. Which, yes, we all know that maritime registries are fig leafs and tax evasion, but it still counts.

"The Insider was able to confirm, using Sentinel navigation charts and data from tracking service MarineTraffic, that Jaguar was indeed located in neutral waters during its encounter with the Estonian patrol boat Kurvits.

However, the video shared by the pro-Russian Telegram channels shows coordinates on the vessel’s navigation display indicating that, at the time of filming, the ship was positioned just south of the neutral waters boundary — within Estonia’s territorial waters."

If anything, the overreaction here was by Russia:

Russian SU-35 fighter entered Estonian airspace overflying the area. The plane was reported to be in Estonian airspace for less than one minute, but the media is saying its transponder was turned off and it was not in radio contact with Estonian air traffic control. It had not filed a flight plan.

I don't see anything wrong with Estonia attempting to enforce the sanctions the West has imposed on Russia, and trusting in its alliance with the West to then back it up when it attempts to enforce them. Any policing effort is backed by the state's authority and not just the physical capabilities of the arresting officer (although it certainly helps to be a bruiser), so if you expand it up a bit to geopolitics, this is no different.

If you're an arthritic, 50 kg woman without a gun, you shouldn't try to enforce rules you and your friends invented the other day on a 200 kg heavyweight boxer with a 20 mm autocannon in his back pocket just because your friends also have big muscles, autocannons, bazookas and miniguns. It puts stress on your relationship and raises tensions.

It's obnoxious behaviour to go 'oh you need insurance to sail in these waters' and 'oh only we provide acceptable insurance, we'll sanction whoever provides insurance'. Sanctions are one thing, trying to mess with freedom of the seas is another, it's like a passive-aggressive blockade albeit 90% passive. This kind of behaviour is how you get your car keyed or your airspace violated.

I thought this thread was illuminating; thanks all

Yes, how dare Estonia... attempt to inspect a tanker, possibly one traveling in its territorial waters?

Well, was it in its territorial waters or not? This seems like it's the deciding question, since ostensibly all actors involved more or less agree on the underlying conventions. There is a corridor of international waters along the centreline of the Finnish Gulf. The version I've read suggests that the tanker was following it (indeed, why would it not?), though some insinuate that it might have veered narrowly into Estonian waters at some point during the incident? It's pretty hard to discern the facts in a conflict where so many consider it their patriotic duty to lie if it makes their side look better.

I don't see anything wrong with Estonia attempting to enforce the sanctions the West has imposed on Russia, and trusting in its alliance with the West to then back it up when it attempts to enforce them.

Well, it all depends on what in fact happened, and what the sanctions really say. Are they in fact an explicit guarantee to participating state that amounts to "we will give you military cover to seize Russian ships in international waters"? Are they ambiguous, or in fact explicitly not saying that much? It's known that the Estonian state has a white-glowing hatred for Russia, and if they could press a button that made the US and Western Europe fight a hot war against it, they probably would (regardless of how the would-be belligerents feel about it). I could easily imagine a situation where whoever formulated the sanctions did not anticipate such a situation, but left enough ambiguity and lack of clear public information that Estonia saw something that to them looked like the aforementioned button and decided to press it.

Because their domestic audience hates Russia so badly they wish the Nazis had won WWII and it’s not like Russia can do much to them- the wrath of big daddy America is too fearsome.

No radiation leak from any nuclear facility in Pakistan, says IAEA amid buzz after Indian claims

Addressing a press conference, Air Marshal AK Bharti said that Indian forces did not know about the site. He said, "We did not hit Kirana hills, whatever is there."

During a press briefing on Tuesday, MEA spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal was asked about social media buzz on ‘nuclear leakage’ in Pakistan after the Indian strikes.

“…Those are questions for them (Pakistan) to answer, not for us. Our position was made very clear during the defence briefing. As for your question, the Pakistani minister has already made some remarks on that,” he said.

India explicitly denied hitting nuclear facilities. The buzz was manufactured by media/social-media accounts.

If I recall correctly, Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine involves using a lot more tactical warheads to offset Indian conventional superiority in the event of an invasion, so their warheads are a lot more widespread and forward deployed. Which would make the possibility of accidentally striking warheads a lot more likely. 4Chan found evidence of US Department of Energy personnel getting flown into Pakistan shortly after the strike. The DoE builds American nuclear weapons so they would be the type of people you would ask to get cleanup advice.

The DoE build’s American nuclear weapons so they would be the type of people you would ask to get cleanup advice.

The DoE has US authority and expertise for all nuclear matters, to the point that the US Navy nuclear propulsion program is part DoD, part DoE. It makes sense that if there's even rumours of a radiation leak, the US would want/be invited to send some experts to check it out/verify for the propaganda/masses that there's nothing going on. Or hell, it may even have been an unfortunately scheduled unrelated visit.

Technically, the pantex plant in Texas builds nuclear weapons.

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