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PaperclipPerfector  1mo ago (text post)   2359 thread views

Transnational Thursday for May 15, 2025

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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Some headlines below for your consideration, focused on risks. The high level overview is that Trump's Middle East trip is going well, India/Pakistan situation not that worrying. I was also surprised that the PKK announced its disbandment. Generally things seem less tense than a couple weeks ago.

Satellite images show Russian military buildup near Finnish border

Cotton Introduces Bill to Prevent Diversion of Advanced Chips to America’s Adversaries and Protect U.S. Product Integrity

Kurdish militant group, PKK decides to disband and end armed struggle with Turkiye

On May 14, a formation of Chinese Coast Guard vessels patrolled the territorial waters around my Diaoyu Islands.

PM Modi outlines harder stance against terrorists. Says that any terrorist attack on India will be met with a strong and decisive response; that India will not tolerate "nuclear blackmail" and will respond with precise strikes; that there will be no distinction between terrorist groups and their sponsors

Türkiye Says It Is Closely Monitoring PKK Disbandment to Secure Peace

Did Pakistan agree to ceasefire after IAF bombed nuclear assets in Kairana Hills? Did it cause leak of radiation?

Iran 'ready to make nuclear concessions'

Amazon will work with AI company recently launched by Saudi Arabia’s ruler to invest upwards of $5 billion-plus in building an AI Zone in Saudi Arabia

Genocide in Syria: Jihadists Massacre Druze, Christians, 'Infidels'

Nvidia sending 18,000 of its top AI chips to Saudi Arabia

Trump, Saudis secure $600B investment deal to include billions in US defense weapons

Similar to a 600B number earlier this year

Taiwan military conducts its first live-fire test of American-made HIMARS, military expert says: its survivability is very fragile.

Nigerian state, Borno, with 6M people, bans the sale of petrol in order to reduce the mobility of jihadist militants

EU finalizes 17th sanctions package targeting Russia's shadow fleet and defense sector

German police arrest three men over alleged Russian parcel bomb plot

Inside Putin's New Kill Squad: Russian Dictator Launches 'KGB 2.0'

Amid beating from India, Baloch rebels also claim 71 attacks on Pakistani forces

No radiation leak from any nuclear facility in Pakistan, says IAEA amid buzz after Indian claims

Macron open to deploying French nuclear weapons in Europe

Estonia tried to detain vessel from Russia's shadow fleeet, did not succeed

Here is the more polished "global risks brief" my team creates from the items above (and others). The executive summary is:

Moody’s downgraded the US credit rating as the US budget deficit grows and US borrowing costs rise. House Republicans are advancing a budget that would increase the deficit further. Meanwhile, China is reducing its holdings of US Treasuries and its dependencies on foreign components in its supply chains as it seeks to de-risk its economy from the US and the West.

Google announced a new coding agent, AlphaEvolve, that has creative problem-solving abilities. Gulf states agreed to more than $1T in US investments and joint enterprises during a visit by Trump to the Middle East, including joint AI ventures. Forecasters estimated a 28% chance (range, 25-30%) that the US will pass a 10-year ban on states regulating AI by the end of 2025.

Negotiations between the US and Iran continue. Iran has signaled willingness to limit uranium enrichment and allow inspections in exchange for sanctions being lifted. Forecasters estimated that there is a 46% chance (range, 40%-50%) that the US and Iran will sign an agreement about Iran’s nuclear program by the end of August.

The ceasefire between India and Pakistan is holding. The Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in Turkey has officially disbanded. Israel has launched a new, major offensive in Gaza. Putin did not attend the first direct ceasefire talks with Ukraine since early in the war.

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