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PaperclipPerfector  3d ago (text post)   637 thread views

Transnational Thursday for September 25, 2025

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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Small observation, struck me as interesting. I’m in Ireland. In the car this morning, radio on. The top of the hour news came on (public radio, state-funded). Top three stories:

  1. Gaza situation, MSF and WHO statements
  2. Iran nuclear situation, new sanctions
  3. Denmark drones situation, new sightings over military bases

There’s plenty happening in Ireland (presidential election campaign, housing crisis, Budget 2026 to be announced next few weeks)

Two competing thoughts:

  1. We (and maybe many EU countries?) have a very broad perspective on the world, and this is generally a good thing for Ireland’s place in a globalised/interconnected world.
  2. Our state broadcaster is sourcing its news agenda from international wire services, probably with many political biases intact and unquestioned, and doesn’t fund enough of its own journalism and newsroom anymore, and this is generally a very bad thing for everyone in Ireland over any time horizon.

3. They're deliberately distracting people from the issues at home

Didn't cross your mind? It especially makes sense when it's a public broadcaster.

Of course it’s a possibility, and I’m sure it happens. I don’t believe it to be pervasive (here, anyway) because that would require a degree of coordination that honestly I don’t give them the credit for. It’s a small country and “everyone knows everyone” is a cliche, but there is some truth to it. There are very few leaps from me to editorial team in state broadcaster newsroom. Comes to mind: “Never ascribe to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence.”

Some headlines I'm reading, comments welcome:

Sanctions on Iran to automatically resume on September 28th. [to do: find link better than Daily Mail]

Qatar Seeks 'israeli' Apology to Restart Gaza Mediation: Report

Drone fired by Yemen's Houthis wounds 22 in southern Israel, in a rare breach of missile defenses

The WHO warns about rapid growth in cholera cases.

China continues to do military exercises & development

El-Fasher: Drone strike on Sudan mosque kills 78, medic tells BBC

France orders hospitals to be ready for war by next year as Germany warns it is on alert should Putin use forthcoming military drills to attack Europe (Daily Mail)

Russia may attack Nato in next four years, German defence chief warns

Germany plans for 1,000 wounded troops per day in case of conflict with Russia

Putin offers Trump one-year extension to nuclear weapons treaty

Drone activity confirmed at multiple Denmark airports

Jihadist groups create 'corridor of violence' targeting Christians in Sahel – Catholic World Report

Isis Kids Planned a Violent 'Caliphate Revival' on Discord back in 2022.

Trump warns Venezuela will pay 'incalculable' price if doesn't take back migrants

Trump warns Venezuela to take back prisoners or face 'incalculable' price

Hamas reportedly preparing for street-to-street fighting as Israeli forces near Gaza City centre

Gaza-bound flotilla says it was attacked by drones, as Italy and Spain send help

Gaza aid flotilla rejects Israel's demand to dock in Ashkelon, calls request part of blockade

10 killed, at least 2 decapitated, in Ecuador prison riot just days after deadly jailbreak

Estimated 16,500 climate change deaths during Europe summer

UK, Canada and Australia announce formal recognition of Palestine, with wave of Israel’s allies to follow | Palestinian territories

Keir Starmer's statement in full on the recognition of Palestine

Last pastor forced out of war-torn Sudanese city, el Fasher

Italy sends naval vessel to help Gaza aid flotilla

Secret Service takes down network that could have crippled New York cell service

Israel strikes Yemen's Sanaa after Houthi drone attack on Eilat

Russia is reportedly selling military equipment, technology, expertise, training to China in China's bid to be able to invade Taiwan by 2027.

The U.S. government announced new and modified contracts worth more than $100M to enhance biodefense preparedness, particularly through procurements from Emergent BioSolutions.

Spanish warship sets sail to support Gaza-bound aid flotilla

Various air force

trials and exercises in China

Senior Hamas official defends ‘high price’ of Oct 7 for Palestinians, saying attack created ‘golden moment’ | CNN

The Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) has extended the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act (AFSPA) for an additional six months Manipur, Arunachal Pradesh, and Nagaland, effective October 1. This act grants the armed forces broad powers to maintain public order in areas they designate as disturbed

Drone fired by Yemen's Houthis wounds 22 in southern Israel, in a rare breach of missile defenses

Wait, if it's a drone shouldn't it be "drone defenses"?

Hamas reportedly preparing for street-to-street fighting as Israeli forces near Gaza City centre

As opposed to? They have been street-to-street fighting for the last 2 years. That's the only mode of fighting that is available to them - it's not like they have tanks corps or navy or anything but infantry hidden in the residential neighborhoods. So the headline is "Hamas is reportedly preparing to keep doing what they've been doing for 2 years now". Well, gee, thanks BBC for informing us.

Gaza aid flotilla rejects Israel's demand to dock in Ashkelon, calls request part of blockade

I just wonder, what they are planning to do if they actually reach Gaza? Whatever shit they have on their ships, nobody needs it, Gaza has a lot of supplies going in. I mean sure, a lot of people would be happy to relieve them of the goods and sell them on the nearest market, but then what? Take selfies and back home? Or try to get killed and make a huge stink out of it? What's the game plan? I mean, Israel Navy probably would intercept them, feed them sandwiches and deport them again, like the last time, but I'm just curious what's the idea.

The USA is summoning the Elector Counts... er, generals. Which is to say, all flag officers (exempting those on staffs) are being called to Quantico next week. Why? Nobody knows! Probably not a coup or assassination, though. My crackpot theory is that it's related to Trump's recent rhetoric on Ukraine taking the fight to Russia, but it's a very crackpot theory. I don't anticipate the US entering that conflict within the next week.

It's turned out to be nothing, so my crackpot theory is that Hegseth for drunk and called the meeting to announce something big, got sober and realized his announcement was a terrible idea, so he gave a weird values speech to cover.

Just more wasted money I guess.

So it's not even "this meeting could have been an email," it's "this meeting could have been a corporate announcement of our new Our Values Sharepoint page?"

I was expecting something dumb, but that's just... wow.

I would like to think that it be for something serious.

By serious I don't mean an annual general (heh) meeting. I mean either 'the federal govt layoffs are coming and high command will be cut by 25%' or 'We're getting into a fight with China over Taiwan. Soon. Really'

I'd rather expect they are about to hear something that is not going to please them, probably "we thank you for your service, bye now" for some of them. And Hegseth does not want an organized opposition and the press circus before he does the deed. It will happen afterwards, but that'd be too late.

I'm leaning towards layoffs.

Nicolas Sarkozy might end up being the first French ex-president in prison. Appealing will not delay incarceration, because of the exceptional gravity of the case.

He is the second ex-president (after Jacques Chirac) found guilty of corruption.

Drones are being a bother around Scandinavian airports. Russian culpability is suspected.

If it was Russia, and it may well have been, given the reports that these were not typical hobby drones + they were "flown in a highly capable manner"...

Are Russia trying to send the message that they will be able to kick various Europeans right in the testicles if the war becomes hot(tter)? "We'll take down your passenger planes", and the like? "We've got agents ready to harm various undefended and under-defended soft spots"?

And/or they might be trying to make NATO countries spend on/deploy anti air defenses at home instead of in Ukraine...

Mystery drones have been lurking around airports and nuclear plants for years, prior to the war. May be Russia, may be some other source.

As far as I know it's never been proven that any such drones are real and not misidentified planes, birds, etc.

I'd bet a decent chunk are idiots with cheap DJI or equivalent drones not following the rules. But probably not all of them.

Are Russia trying to send the message that they will be able to kick various Europeans right in the testicles if the war becomes hot(tter)?

I'm not sure who this message would be addressed to. EU military, unless they are hiring literally idiots, already knows what drones are, and saw how Ukraine and Israel used them to perform deep-inside attacks. Deducing Russia would be capable of doing the same, should they want it, is not something that needs any special messaging. The general public is not itching to have any conflict with Russia anyway - I mean, they don't like Russia, but they'd prefer to limit themselves to expressing grave concern and maybe sending some money to Ukraine (not too much), but that's the extent of it. And they certainly wouldn't understand this message anyway - it would require proven connection to Russia (which would be an act of war by then) to have it enter into normie awareness, or at least willingness of the press (which means of the government) to proclaim it so - in which case the normies would ask - if Russia is already attacking us, why you guys aren't doing squat? And nobody really wants these questions asked or answered.

It could be a test, or it could be just some local drone operators not giving a flying frick about any regulations and just YOLOing it around the airport. It's not like it takes a genius with 10 years of training to fly a hobby drone...

Lots of reasons. Testing defenses, intimidation, diversion of resources.

As an aside, I found out the Mexican cartels are apparently sending undercover sicarios to Ukraine to learn about drone warefare.

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