NunoSempere
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User ID: 1101
NunoSempere
6d ago
My very quick estimates, little more that gut feelings + looking a bit for sources:
AI:
- Yudkowski declares AGI/ASI Achieved: Pass.
- We have federal regulation passed through congress to regulate AI: 10%
- Anthropic announces IPO: 40%
- A Chinese model is released that is widely considered to be the best coding model(not just on price per token): 20%
- AI System wins an award for a significant contribution in mathematics: Pass
- A lab releases a fully autonomous drop-in worker agent that at least five fortune 200 companies implement: NA. Very dependent on what marketing term people use.
- OpenAI revenue exceeds $30 billion: 50%
- A frontier lab experiences a security incident that requires public disclosure: 40%
US Domestic politics:
- Democrats have a majority in the House: 75%
- Democrats have a majority in the Senate: 40%
- Trump Approval rating exceeds 50% at any point: 30%
- A government shutdown exceeds 14 days: 25%, but not sure.
- total deportation in 2026 exceed 500k: 60%
- Mamadani implements fare free busses city wide: Pass
- Mamdani implements at least three state run grocery stores: 10%
- Trump is impeached: 5%
- A Major political figure is assassinated(Congress/SCOTUS Judge/Executive cabinet member): 7% if only those specific categories, if including someone like Charlie Kirk them much higher.
Wars:
- Israel-palestine conflict reignites: 70%, has already done so
- Ukraine war ceasefire lasts greater than 30 days at any point: 70%
- China invades Taiwan: 5%
- US officially at war with Venezuela at any point: 20%, hard for Congress to give the go ahead.
China:
- Official GDP growth below 4%: 30%
- Youth unemployment (16-24) reported above 15% at any point in 2026. 15%, going with https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1dpDA
- Major Chinese property developer (top 20) enters formal bankruptcy. Pass
- SMIC achieves volume production at 5nm or below. Pass
Economics:
- US enters recession (2 consecutive quarters negative GDP growth).
- S&P 500 higher on 12/31/26 than 12/31/25. 70%
- US unemployment rate exceeds 5% at any point. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE, 35%
- Bitcoin above $150k at any point, pass
- YoY inflation exceeds 4%, https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category-line-chart.htm, unclear since it's so easy to torture and they changed the BLS chief.
Technology:
- Starship upper stage (Ship) successfully lands (caught or propulsive landing). Pass
- Blue Origin New Glenn completes 5+ successful launches. Pass
- Tesla releases vehicle with SAE Level 4 autonomy to consumers. 40%
- US approves new nuclear reactor construction (not SMR). 55%
NunoSempere
8d ago
I've been reading King, Warrior, Magician, Lover, on Jungian psychology. It makes the point that there are positive mature masculine patterns/archetypes/stereotypes, and the book goes over how they look like. I'm probably aiming at the Magician pattern and coming from the precocious child pattern.
NunoSempere
10d ago
Some items I'm looking at:
Geopolitics
United States
Trump announces new class of U.S. battleships named after himself
Rest of the Americas
Iran and Venezuela Strengthen Alliance Against US Actions: Cooperation to Combat Caribbean Piracy
U.S. strikes another alleged drug-smuggling boat in eastern Pacific
US pursuing third oil tanker near Venezuela, officials say | Reuters
Great Satan US Steals Tanker Off Venezuela in Another Act of Piracy
Russia evacuates diplomats' families from Venezuela as US seizes oil tankers
Europe
EU anti-Russian influence operations, also decried as censorship
Pair convicted of plotting gun attack on mass gathering of Jews in Machester
Middle East
Israel plans to invest $110 billion to develop its indigenous defense industry.
Iran
Iran: 357 Executed Since November 22
Iran refuses inspection of nuclear sites until IAEA provides new guidelines after bombing
Gaza
Government announces 19 new West Bank settlements and legalized outposts | The Times of Israel
Land Grab: Inside Israel's Escalating Campaign for Control of the West Bank
Yemen
Asia
Japan's attempt to 'go nuclear' must be prevented, says North Korea
India announces USD 450 million reconstruction package for Sri Lanka after Cyclone Ditwah
India/Pakistan
Pollution in New Delhi is so bad that people's DNA is getting damaged
Air Pollution in New Delhi,India: Effecting: DNA, Reproduction, Grand Children
Africa
Summary of Sudan toll in numbers
Hundreds of thousands newly displaced as Islamic State insurgency expands in Mozambique
President Trump announces strike on ISIS targets in Nigeria
Biorisks
Resistance to antifungal therapies
Artificial Intelligence
Google 2025 recap: Research breakthroughs of the year
ARC-AGI 2: Poetiq reaches 75% at less $8 / task
More tech
Russia's new anti-satellite weapon project would target Starlink with space shrapnel | AP News
Drones causing alarm in Thailand airport
These seem a bit high, but otherwise reasonable. Some leeway in how to interpret "approves new nuclear reactor construction".
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