NunoSempere
No bio...
User ID: 1101
NunoSempere
8d ago
This is a good point. I consider the above an early draft, with fewer signposts, mostly pointers to the primary sources I'm using, because The Motte can take it. Maybe you might derive other interpretations from the primary sources than what I am getting out of them. The final polished version, read by about 3K people, is here.
A Chinese navy ship collided with a Chinese coast guard vessel while pursuing a Philippines coast guard boat. Subsequently, China claimed to have expelled US warships from “Chinese territorial waters” in the South China Sea.
The link under "claimed" links to a more neutral source, because in this case it remarks:
Beijing has also pushed back what it calls infringement of its airspace and maritime waters by the US and its allies, while the latter claims it flies and sails its military assets in international airspace and waters.
NunoSempere
9d ago
Yes, I'm quoting Chinese military news
NunoSempere
11d ago
Thanks.
NunoSempere
11d ago
XD, thanks
NunoSempere
11d ago
Stuff I'm looking at this week:
Geopolitics
Americas
Court paves way for Trump to yank billions of dollars worth of foreign aid, concluding that aid groups lacked standing to bring the case.
US offers $5m bounty for Haitian warlord 'Barbecue'
Terrible health conditions at Alligator Alcatraz prison
US appeals court says Trump administration can cut billions in foreign aid
Europe
Musk chatbot Grok says it was 'censored' after suspension from X over Gaza posts
Children dying of hunger in Darfur's el-Fasher city
Attempted coup in Mali
Russia Has an Arsenal of New AI Drones Built with Smuggled Nvidia Chips (old news tho)
Zelenskyy: Ukraine won't cede land for peace amid US-Russia summit
European leaders unite behind Ukraine as Trump-Putin meeting nears
Europe says U.S. and Russia cannot decide on Ukraine land swaps at this week's summit
Migrants swim from Morocco to Ceuta as officials say enclave 'overwhelmed'
Middle East
Ireland intends to pass bill to ban the import of good from Israeli settlements despite US pressure
Iran
Where Next for Iran's Supreme Leader? Another review of his unstable grip on power.
Iran arrests 20 Mossad spies, executes nuclear scientist for providing classified information.
WWIII: Palantir CEO Alex Karp Says 3-Front War With Russia, China And Iran 'Very Likely'
Gaza
Israel strike kills Al Jazeera journalists in Gaza due to allegations of his leadership of a Hamas cell involved in rocket attacks.
Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly in talks with South Sudan to take Gazans
Gaza Sees Five Starvation Deaths in 24 Hours
11 more die from malnutrition in Gaza, Hamas-run health ministry says
Israel faces growing global condemnation over its plan to take over Gaza City
Gaza terrorists caught using emblem and vests of the World Central Kitchen.
'It's a horrible picture': Gaza faces new threat from antibiotic-resistant disease
Gaza health system 'catastrophic' with hospitals overwhelmed and medicines running out, WHO warns
Yemen
Yemen's Houthis say they launched 3 drone strikes inside Israel
Asia
Morning Brief: US Coast Guard Commissions First New Icebreaker in Over Two Decades; US, China Trade Accusations Over Panama Canal at UN Security Council
China's Chikungunya Outbreak Surpasses 10,000 Cases, Spreads to Taiwan
Chinese Authorities Mandating Blood Tests, Releasing Lab Mosquitoes to Fight Chikungunya Outbreak (although Epoch Times is not generally a reliable source)
A U.S. destroyer illegally entered the territorial waters of China's Huangyan Island; the Southern Theater Command lawfully and according to regulations warned and expelled it.
On August 13, Navy Colonel He Tiecheng, spokesperson for the Southern Theater Command of the People's Liberation Army, announced the unauthorized entry of the U.S. Navy destroyer "Higgins" into the territorial waters off Huangyan Island. This action was described as a serious violation of China’s sovereignty that undermines regional stability and breaches international law. The Southern Theater Command's naval forces responded by tracking, monitoring, and ultimately expelling the U.S. vessel to assert their legal authority and maintain security in the area.
Key points include the assertion that the U.S. military's activities threaten both China's sovereignty and the peace of the South China Sea. The Chinese naval forces remain vigilant and prepared to defend national interests, emphasizing a continual state of readiness against foreign military actions.
Bangladesh Braces For Potentially Devastating Dengue Outbreak As Cases Surge. The country has documented 101 deaths and over 24,183 infections so far this year
India/Pakistan
Australia To Recognise Palestinian State At UN In September
Germany invites Trump, Zelenskyy, NATO, EU leaders to virtual meeting before Trump-Putin summit
Indian court orders removal of thousands of stray dogs from Delhi region, responding to concerns about rabies. India is facing the highest rabies toll in the world, with approximately 5,700 deaths annually according to government statistics, while some estimates suggest numbers could be as high as 20,000. The stray dog population in Delhi has surged, increasing from 60,000 in 2012 to close to 1 million.
Africa
Over 2,500 cholera cases, 103 deaths recorded in Sudan's North Darfur
Nigeria Emerging As Hub For 22 Islamic Terror Groups
40 dead in Darfur as worst cholera outbreak hits Sudan
FYI there was a pretty terrible famine in Darfur in 1998
US approves potential $346 million weapons sale to Nigeria to bolster security
US imposes sanctions on Congo armed group, mining firms over illicit minerals
Tech and AI
OpenAI gold at the IOI
NunoSempere
18d ago
Some items I'm looking at this week:
Geopolitics
Americas
Trump and Putin to meet in coming days, Kremlin says
Haiti Armed Violence Kills Over 3,100 in 6 Months in 2025
National Weather Service to rehire after deep DOGE cuts – NBC 5 Dallas-Fort Worth
Some items from the Trump administration:
- Excluding illegal immigrants from census?
- Semiconductor tariffs announced, but extent unclear
- 25% tariff on India over Russian oil imports
Europe
300 sick children from Gaza to be evacuated to the UK
Trump's Deadline For The Kremlin Looms But Putin Shows No Sign Of Making Concessions
Middle East
Hezbollah to treat Lebanon's disarmament decision 'as if it does not exist'
Hezbollah warns it will resume firing missiles at Israel if it ramps up operations in Lebanon
Iran
Iran sets up new defence council in wake of war with Israel
This is what Khameini losing power might look like?
Gaza
Jordan, Egypt, UAE deliver more humanitarian supplies to Gaza
Netanyahu says Israel intends to take control of all of Gaza (1:10), in order to, he says, liberate the people of Gaza from Hamas, and pass control over to a civilian government that is not calling for the destruction of Israel.
Israeli military chief opposes Gaza war expansion
Israel Security Cabinet Clears Netanyahu's Plan to Occupy Gaza City
'Occupy entire Gaza or resign': Netanyahu tells IDF chief, reports Israeli media as talks with Hamas stall
Over 1,000 packages airdropped over Gaza in 2 weeks-Xinhua
Indonesia to treat 2,000 injured Gazans on Galang island
China opposes Israel's 'dangerous' plan to occupy Gaza
How much aid has entered Gaza?
It doesn't actually do the math,
-
Higher end: 84 trucks per day * 90 m^3 per standard truck * 1000 liters per m^3 * 8000 kcal per liter (caloric density of oil) / 2.1M Gazans = 28,000 kcal per person per day
-
Lower end: 84 trucks per day * 18 m^3 per van * 75% full (?) * 1000 liters per m^3 * 700 kcal per liter (caloric density of grain) / 2.1M Gazans = 405 kcal per person per day
Can we get better bounds?
Yemen
Asia
Microsoft Used China-Based Engineers to Support Product Recently Hacked by China
Severe outbreak of mosquito-borne chikungunya virus infects 8,000 in China
Bird flu confirmed in six-year-old Cambodian girl
A series of reports witnessing the practice of the "steel arteries" serving the strengthening and prospering of the military in the new era. China integrates its railway system more with military logistics.
China looking into ways to disable the Starlink constellation
Chinese and Russian naval fleets complete maritime exercises, transition to joint sea patrol on August 6
Indonesia's Mount Lewotobi Laki Laki erupts again, spewing giant ash plumes miles away
China (potentially) Faces EU Sanctions over Secret Drone Shipments to Russia's Military
Bangladesh teeters between hope and deadlock a year after Hasina's fall
Mobile Internet blackout across Balochistan amid rising security threats
India/Pakistan
Bangladesh: 121 Killed, Over 5,000 Injured in 471 Political Violence Incidents Since Yunus Took Office
Africa
Sudan: El-Fasher faces famine as supplies cut off, UN says
Sudan accuses UAE of bringing in Colombian mercenaries to support RSF
Sudan military destroyed UAE plane carrying Colombian mercenaries
South-East Nigeria rocked by insecurity, healthcare crisis
Study finds militant Islamists have killed 22,307 in Africa over the last one year, gained significant territory
Islamists have killed over 22,300 in Africa this last year
Pentagon: U.S. Counterterrorism Efforts Have Failed Africans
African armies turn to drones with devastating civilian impact
Rwanda: Ceasefire in Doubt As Rwanda-Backed Rebels Kill Hundreds in Eastern DR Congo
Bio
Antibodies for Strep A
Ghana approves breakthrough malaria drug for babies — but research is 'on ice' amid US funding cuts
How mRNA Vaccine Cuts and Egg Dependency Leave the U.S. Exposed to a Bird Flu Pandemic
Tech and AI
Open Source release of gpt
Trying to steal TSMC trade secrets
Users who bonded with GPT-4o complaining it's going away
Global Economy
Trump tariffs on semiconductors
Misc
Associated Press Runs Sympathetic Story Checking On Hezbollah Terrorists Injured In 'Grim Beeper' Operation
NunoSempere
24d ago
Positive states of being are psychologically healthy
you can only be altruistic by improving yourself to be more than self-sufficient, so it's a kind of inverse parasitism.
mmmh!! top points, thanks
NunoSempere
24d ago
I mean, we want people to be prosocial, provide public goods, play cooperative games, coordinate around positive outcomes. But you don't want this to be suicidal. Not sure if that's just a restatement. of what you are saying.
NunoSempere
25d ago
You are making points without the knowledge of what is already been discussed on the topic. Go google "avoiding EA burnout" and you'll find a plenty of stuff on this front.
I think you are empirically wrong on this. E.g., if you go to one of the most upvoted such essays you will see my comment at the top. But it's been a while. Maybe there is much that I have forgotten.
NunoSempere
25d ago
strawmanning of EA in general
I think EA does have a fair share of pure altruists. I know of at least four people that have gone celibate over the last few years as a result of being too concentrated on their jobs (and I claim they could have had romantic success if they had chosen to). I think coordinating around "we are doing the most good" also has an easy attractor in pure altruism.
the Soviets did not rely on charitable giving to fund their efforts
The thing I was pointing at is that the job of the apparatchiks was to nominally be pure altruists towards the population of Russia as a whole, and this predictably failed.
NunoSempere
25d ago
There is a philosophical problem regarding whether pure altruism is conceptually possible; if you help someone, and you receive in exchange nothing but the satisfaction of having helped someone, then haven't you received something of value, thereby rendering the altruistic act "impure"? What if you don't even feel good about it, could it be pure then? But then, how were you motivated to help in the first place if you didn't even feel good about it? Regardless of how we answer these questions, I believe we can put the idea of absolute pure altruism to the side, because if it exists at all, it surely encompasses a minority of human interactions--source
I have a different perspective here, where a) I think it's conceptually possible, b) the interesting question is whether people who say they are are really only doing the pure altruism. I first encountered the term pure altruism in two papers by James Andreoni, from 1989 and 1990. In them, Andreoni lays out a model of altruistic giving, where agents contribute to a public good both because they value it in itself, but also because they get a private benefit, a "warm glow". He has some nice academic results, like a quick mechanism for indexing one's own altruism (if one was taxed one dollar less, or a thousand, how much more would one donate?), and other observations (taxation may not produce warm glow, and as a result increasing taxation by some amount doesn't reduce donations by that amount; when parents get a warm glow from giving to their children, children are incentivized to be more "spoilt" in a technical sense).
Are people who are saying they are doing pure forms of altruism actually doing so? Often not so. There are aspects of the EA community that just don't make sense by considering its participants as pure white cherubs of innocence and selflessness, although each particular case will be uncertain and ambiguous, and although pointing the discrepancy is tricky.
One of the biggest bets Open Philanthropy—a large philanthropic foundation I'm acquainted with—is making is in its own people. 161 people, earning say 150K to 250K salaries, with overhead of 20% to 40% (?) is 30M to 52M/year—probably higher than any one of their grants in 2024 and 2025. This does not include the cost of their office, another cool 16.5M. This leads them to have a class interest: they are invested in that form of doing philanthropy—rather than anonymous part-time rotating grantmakers whose funds under management grow or shring depending on their evaluated success (like the Survival and Flourishing Fund).
Trotsky's The Revolution Betrayed outlines how this happened with the apparatchik in Russia. The apparatchik are in charge of the wellbeing of the Soviet Union and ended up reallocating ressources to themselves. Some of my experience is that the grantmakers just want to be sucked up to, their ideas confirmed, their egos upheld, their strategies validated, their personalities admired. But at the same time they are selected for not rocking the boat in a deep way. More mundanely, people get grants from projects that don't work out, and don't pivot, because they think that would involve losing their jobs. EA seems like a failed Schelling point to me, because it advertises itself as doing pure altruism, but the actors end up fighting for their own self-interest, sometimes in quite obvious ways.
Is pure altruism selected out? If you do something for someone such that you don't get something out of it, can you continue doing that into the future? What is the mechanism? I think this is a key question that leads to rederiving some form of non-naïve form of altruism. Or alternatively, it leads to exploiting the pure altruism until its ressources are exhausted. One of the first guys to think about this ended up killing himself.
On the other side, pure altruism can be understood essentially as a mating display because it's a costly signal of strength, and it. The underlying purpose of ideology X isn't ideology X, it's displaying that you can still be a well-adjusted person even with its iron around your neck. Some version of this is fine by me, but the problem becomes when people really believe their ideologies and do cripple themselves for real, as happened with Germany's industrial economy as a result of their terrible energy policy. This matters to me, I made a heavily real, non-fake investment in learning German. I passed the C1 exam but probably at some point did have a C2 level in German. Now I just do business with Americans instead. I also do find it aesthetically distasteful when people do something which is nominally about, e.g., helping the homeless in a way that makes the problem worse, partly because nobody taught me how to do the Straussian reading.
At the same time, how do you coordinate around public goods? One cool answer is dominant assurance contracts but in practice this hasn't been implemented much, perhaps because the people who could have jobs as grantmakers they would rather preserve, but also because part of the problem of setting up a new project is just distribution, and you have a chicken an egg problem here (you could do a dominant assurance funding model if only you had already built the distribution funnel for your thing, but that's a big part of the job).
Anyways one answer here is to try to get people in man vs. nature games because man v. man conflicts are just fucked up.
NunoSempere
25d ago
The forum was one that was trying really hard to be heterogenous in terms of opinions and also to be nice and moderating it was a nightmare ... A: Here's the troll who comes by only to post egregiously offensive "go kill yourself [list of slurs]",
B: Here's the more subtle troll, who keeps toeing the line as much as he can get away with.
C: here's the user who is not a troll. They actually do participate in discussion and are clearly trying to be a part of the community. They're also abrasive and/or obnoxious and/or inflammatory.
D: And then here's the final type of user that's problematic as a mod: They're a sensitive snowflake. Honestly they need to be sub-divided further, because some of them are just born snowflakes that can't handle any opposition to their viewpoint at all, and others are retaliatory snowflakes, because if I got a ban for three days for saying this opinion is dumb then that guy also needs to get a ban for three days for saying this other opinion is dumb.
I had a similar experience. From your perspective I would have been C or D. From my perspective, the moderators were Dolores Umbridge equivalents, trying to keep the appearance of legitimate discourse but also not really being able to take legitimate challenges to the sensitive consensus. Eventually I just left when enough Bs left as well.
NunoSempere
26d ago
Some items I'm looking at this week, as always provided on a best-effort basis.
Geopolitics
Americas
Drug cartel operatives from Mexico and Colombia joined the International Legion in Ukraine to gain experience with first person view drone usage.
Trump says Russia has '10 days from today' to end Ukraine war, or face penalties
Europe
UK threatens to recognize Palestine as a state
UK prisoners are bringing goods into jail via drone
Niger signs a nuclear cooperation deal with Russia
Chikungunya spreads from Indian Ocean islands
Spain and Greece are facing a health alert due to rising cases of Crimean Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF), an illness with a mortality rate of about 30%
Middle East
Gaza
Israeli military announces 'tactical pause' to Gaza attacks amid mounting global pressure
At least 46 Palestinians killed by Israeli fire in Gaza, officials say, as hunger crisis grinds on
Aid trucks resume flow from Egypt to Gaza via Rafah crossing for 3rd consecutive day
Trump's envoy meets Netanyahu for Gaza aid push
Testimony of a former employee of the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation paints them as deliverately shooting into crowds.
Marjorie Taylor Greene labels Israel's actions as genocide
Egypt, UAE, Jordan airdrop aid over Gaza
Israeli army says 52 aid packages airdropped in Gaza
Famine threshold reached in Gaza
Yemen
Yemen's Houthis said on Sunday they would target any ships belonging to companies that do business with Israeli ports, regardless of their nationalities
Asia
Canada intends to recognise a Palestinian state in September
Taiwan is building up its drone capacity (but reporting doesn't point out how they will just be built by China)
Africa
Militant islamic groups have reportedly killed 155K people over the last decade
Cholera outbreaks in Africa
Attacks in Kordofan states (Sudan) cause hundreds of deaths, mass displacement and the collapse of essential services
Cholera Rampant Among Displaced and Refugees in Darfur and Eastern Chad
Bio
"Article looking at AI drug discovery. Much has been made about the potential for AI to produce pandemics, but they also make defense easier.
Tech and AI
Hierarchical reasoning might be a new architecture that does better.
New powerful open source models
NunoSempere
29d ago
Here is how the weekly review ended:
- Geopolitical risks: Thailand and Cambodia exchanged fire, and Thailand sent some F-16s into Cambodia, but a ceasefire has already been reached. Israel is being accused of causing mass starvation in Gaza by the WHO and others. Zelensky faced his first large-scale domestic protests over a law weakening the independence of anti-corruption bodies.
- Economy and trade: The US and the EU reached a trade deal that would tariff EU goods coming into America at 15%. A similar agreement was reached between the US and Japan, which will now also face 15% tariffs on its goods exported to the US.
- Biorisks: A paper reports a method for genetically editing mosquitoes to make them resistant to malaria in a way that can be transmitted to subsequent generations, and a method for driving such mutations into mosquito populations. H5N1 continues to pose an ongoing risk.
- AI: The White House published an extensive AI Action Plan, which seeks to accelerate investment and buildout and espouses a framework of a race against China, while also recognizing some potential dangers from AI and including some recommendations for research on controllability and safety. Anthropic is embroiled in a new trial over pirating IP; forecasters assign a 68% chance that the case will reach a jury trial, and a 56% chance that $1.5B damages will be awarded conditional on losing a trial, but only a 1.1% chance that Anthropic will be out of business by the end of 2026 as a result of the trial.
- Gray swans: None detected this week.
UN declaration of famine
My best guess:
North Korea has a secret base near China with missiles that could reach the U.S., a new report from CSIS says
Massacres in eastern Congo cast doubt on U.S. mediated peace deal
Belarus says it is looking at how to arm its missile systems with nuclear warheads
Sweden to build more nuclear plants with US or UK technology
A Russian military drone crashed in Eastern Poland during the night, causing an explosion that residents reported but resulted in no injuries. Radar systems did not detect the drone
Russian military drone crashes and explodes in eastern Poland, defence minister says
Putin demands Ukraine quit Donbas, drop NATO plans in peace proposal
Italian police arrest Ukrainian man over Nord Stream pipeline attacks
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