Nwallins
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User ID: 265
I suspect Vladimir Putin is dead. I think the man in charge of the country is a double. World leaders are known to have body doubles, often multiples. For clarity, I'm going to introduce "Vlad", a person who resembles Putin and was recruited into performing as a double, likely after some cosmetic surgeries to tighten up the image. Putin has reportedly had some nasty health problems over the last 3 years or so, and I have seen multiple articles suspecting a double acting in certain capacities, with side by sides of Putin and "Vlad". I found this reporting credibly speculative, and I felt that I could reliably and consistently distinguish "Vlad" from Putin, particularly over time.
There is a problem of course: if "Vlad" exists, how can we be sure any particular Putin photo is actually of Putin?
Here is some evidence I've found, and I did not look very hard. I was reading https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12231813/Prepare-deeply-dangerous-unpredictable-Russia-Putin-replaced-says-security-expert.html and happened to notice "Vlad", and scrolled down further to find what appeared to be an older photo of Putin.
Note, I am not saying that these are great examples. If someone looked much harder, they could make a stronger case. "Vlad" to me looks softer and smoother, without the hardness or sharpness that I've come to associate with Putin's gaze.
My best guess at a narrative, if Vladimir Putin is in fact dead at this moment:
Putin probably has a double even before he gets sick. This may or may not be the current "Vlad". I think Putin realizes he has a likely terminal disease before the Ukraine invasion. As he gets sicker, the need for the double increases, both in terms of scheduling around illness and heightened scrutiny. Perhaps there is additional recruitment or cosmetic procedures. Putin invades Ukraine. Perhaps within a year of the invasion, he becomes incapacitated, and the double takes over, likely with the assistance of high level FSB.
Um, sure, maybe, but care to substantiate?
The way that HBD is used around here seems to imply some amount of believing that
racialpopulation-level differences in traits like intelligence (1) exist and (2) are significantly heritable.
Would he really disagree with this? It's basic statistics. The sketchy part is attempting to map a distinct population onto some kind of "race". Since our populations are not as isolated as they were five hundred or five thousand years ago, race is a muddy lens today.
Ah, I see now.
"anarchist" who sees long dead penny ante dictator as divine being? Why not, point of real free speech is the opportunity to hear all voices!
This seems extremely petty. There is an underlying principle of free speech, here, and the desire to encounter the speech of another is in no way an endorsement or worship of the other. Come on, really?!
For me, the alt-right was the Tea Party, opposing bank bailouts and obstructing big government from a libertarian perspective. This was not the old Moral Majority focused on respectability but instead bomb throwers fed up with the status quo. This well predates the rise of Trump and emergence of Richard Spencer.
The term was an amorphous label that could be placed on a wide dispersion of groups that harbor major mutual disagreements.
The theme is: the hegemon failing to impose its will in particular direction
Could the lack of inclination possibly be covering for a lack of competence?
Rhabdoviridae
Interesting, is this related to the rhabdo that Crossfitters get? Rhabdomyalysis? Something to do with kidneys and hydration?
The article is ungated for me, FYI
You can't just say 'we won all the battles and got a great K/D but some weird political stuff happened and we left the other guy controlling the territory' - wars are about politics.
If your metric is fighting ability and military experience, then you sure can. Isn't that what you were originally questioning?
Conceivably BYND could have gotten a little flywheel going and continued to innovate into healthier better options.
I sort of get what you're gesturing at. A flywheel represents the difficulty of spinning up a new market. You need to solve both supply and demand at the same time to get the engine running. Failure is catastrophic while success is a money machine. If there is an imbalance, the flywheel is bottlenecked and doesn't want to spin.
In this case, the flywheel represents the pseudo-meat market, I suppose. There have been meat substitutes and meat replacements before, but this is really a new kind of market and new kind of product. Maybe this particular market is cursed, but if the flywheel gets going, then maybe:
continued to innovate into healthier better options.
AKA the pivot
The technical term is 'scamwick'.
Interesting. I'm not really a crypto guy (read Satoshi's whitepaper when BTC were going for pennies), or a trader, but I know a little bit about technical analysis. The "wick" here is the wick of a candle chart, which shows the open & close, high & low, for a given trading period. The delta between open and close forms the body of the candle, while the high and low (which necessarily equal or exceed the open and close) form the "wicks" (upper and lower) of the candle. A so-called scamwick is a recognition of suspicious price movements which indicate price manipulation.
My prior on "price manipulation" is that most manipulators lose in the long run, at least for deep markets, but that the attempt to manipulate prices is an important part of price discovery and akin to "random noise" which motivates the true price.
This is the EZ button and I agree!
(2) It is perfectly reasonable to encourage students to report what they think is a hate crime, and then let the police sort out whether it really is. It is pretty standard operating procedure to encourage people to report if there is any doubt. Eg: "see something, say something."
If the intervention is merely "say something" then this is entirely sensible. I suspect the intervention recommended requires more culpability in order to defend.
What are the numerator and denominator in the overdose rate?
Part of the advantage of liberals as a tribe, is this false sentiment of neutrality, of moderation, of centrism, when they are creatures of the left in reality.
I'm probably first and foremost a classical liberal, extremely libertarian, with sympathies to anarchocapitalism. I oppose nearly all progressives in some form, though they're not necessarily wrong about everything. Mainly to the extent they want to intrude upon or eradicate classical liberalism.
As a young teenager, I had a vague notion of progress, from barbaric wars to slavery to racism to the color blind attitude I embraced wholly in the 1990s. Clinton was cool, Bush and Reagan were evil empire.
But I had a libertarian history teacher who was great with insights and making conceptual connections, and read some Ayn Rand and Milton Friedman before college. Then Rothbard, Hayek, Mises. Then 9/11 happened and I moved rightward in a couple dimensions.
Am I the exception that proves the rule? Or a creature of the left?
All this to say, it's an interesting idea, but I don't buy the conclusion. I think liberalism is a concept prior to left/right, and while the left/right spectrum is useful, it fails to illuminate the nature of liberalism.
Europe is certainly capable of turning back migrants. They choose not to.
Do you know why IV fluids fail to hydrate? I am only going off wikipedia here, and maybe errantly...
Belated appreciation from me. I did not intend my criticism so literally, but this level of honesty is becoming.
Also, I just learned about Dennett's version of Rapoport's rules:
In a summary of Dennett's version of Rapoport's rules, Peter Boghossian and James A. Lindsay pointed out that an important part of how Rapoport's rules work is by modeling prosocial behavior: one party demonstrates respect and intellectual openness so that the other party can emulate those characteristics, which would be less likely to occur in intensely adversarial conditions.
Boghossian and Lindsay (Jimmy Concepts) are practitioners of Rogerian Argument. The aggressive form, but nonetheless an update towards.
Could be. I have a vague recollection of like 3 or 4 like minded individuals from that era.
What are your sources on this? You write authoritatively and with seeming knowledge of Japanese discussions, commander psychologies and thought processes. Is this an original work of yours, basically synthesized from all the relevant facts that bounce around your head, or ?
I don't mean to sound doubtful or critical. Just curious. I love the overall approach and depth; it's been a great series. It just feels like it lacks citations. But it's already way beyond an "effortpost", so bravo!
The "God created men ..." quote is attributed to Samuel Colt (or John Moses Browning?)
Is this meant to appeal to conservatives?
Great response. No quibbles. Fully agreed on final paragraph.
I think Hamas considers any dead Palestinian, at Israeli hands, to be a martyr. Combatant or not, civilian or otherwise.
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If a Muslim girl is approached by a sex worker, what should the chaperone do?
What if the sex worker is trans?
This was me using chat.openai.com today. Handled pretty well. Avoids most traps and responds mostly inoffensively. You'll note some prior context with "sock hop".
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