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Nwallins

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Nwallins


								

								

								
								
								

								
							
					
 
				


				
Finally updated my bookmark

				
				
				

				

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					joined 2022 September 04 23:17:52 UTC
				


				
					

					
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User ID: 265


					
					
					
				

			


					

						
					



		

	

 











			
			

			
			

			




	


		

			
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				Culture War Roundup for the week of July 24, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Eli Lake at Bari Weiss' The Free Press


He lays out in simple, clear language how the FBI has held double and triple standards when it comes to investigating or protecting powerful political figures.  I believe this piece is downstream of more original reporting from the likes of Taibbi, Shellenberger, etc, ultimately stemming from Elon Musk's release of The Twitter Files.




You’ll recall that those scoops weren’t as big a news story as was the fact that Facebook and Twitter banned users from sharing the story on the theory that it was the fruit of Kremlin fakery intended to sway the presidential election. It turns out that the FBI officials who warned social media companies that the laptop story might be part of a Russian scheme to mislead voters themselves knew that the laptop was real. And they knew so as early as December of 2019.






But instead of clarifying that the FBI had verified its contents, the bureau instead allowed a falsehood about its provenance to linger. Savor the irony. In an effort to counter Russian disinformation, the FBI actively allowed American disinformation to spread.








It’s also Russiagate—Trump’s alleged (and never proven) collusion with Russia—which was fueled by a Democrat-funded opposition research sheet known as the Steele Dossier. The FBI knew by early 2017 (at the latest) that the whole thing was junk. But like the Russian disinformation lie about the laptop, the bureau let the dossier falsehood linger while the Steele Dossier was hyped like Watergate by the legacy press and Democratic Party in 2017 and 2018.






Then there is the double standard the bureau applied to pursuing foreign influence investigations into Trump’s campaign and the campaign of Hillary Clinton. That was one of the primary conclusions of a report released in May from U.S. Special Counsel John Durham. For Trump, the FBI opened a full investigation on the thinnest of pretexts. For Clinton, the bureau delayed investigations into potential foreign influence and offered defensive briefings to her lawyers.








Here it is useful to examine the other major event of last week: the serious allegations raised by two career IRS investigators who led the team probing Hunter’s tax violations.
On Wednesday the two agents, Gary Shapley and Joseph Ziegler, testified in open session before the House Oversight Committee.






Ziegler and Shapley painted a picture of a long-standing probe that began in 2018 into Hunter Biden’s income that was stymied and delayed at nearly every turn. The delays were significant—so significant that eventually the statute of limitations ran out.
Ziegler said that the probe did not follow normal procedures. Prosecutors, he said, “slow-walked the investigation, and put in place unnecessary approvals and road blocks from effectively and efficiently addressing the case. A lot of times, we were not able to follow the facts.” Ziegler and Shapley also said there were times when prosecutors informed Hunter’s lawyers about investigative steps, such as a search warrant.






All of that would be bad enough. But the event that led Ziegler and Shapley to eventually blow the whistle was when, in October of last year, the U.S. attorney in charge of the case, David Weiss, privately told them that it was not his decision to charge Hunter in districts outside of Delaware. That directly contradicted the pledge that Attorney General Merrick Garland made to Congress that there would be no restrictions placed on Weiss in his investigation of Hunter.




These feel like bombshell revelations to me, but there is also a sickening feeling of two movies on one screen.  This stuff is worthy of coverage in global mainstream media, right?  Not just "bloggers on substack"?


I don't have a NYT or WaPo subscription.  In the last five years, I have completely lost faith in mainstream media.  Is this FBI stuff getting the coverage it deserves?  Shouldn't something like this make a career for a scrappy Berenson type at the NYT?  Are they salivating or putting their (and our) heads in the sand?


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of July 24, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Surprising, no.  Scandalous, yes.  The foundation of justice in this country is based on rule of law, as opposed to rule of man.  Obviously, that's an ideal that we do not always meet.  But the cavalier attitude towards abandoning this principle is very, very concerning.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Israel-Gaza Megathread #2
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I've seen many claims of Hamas militants being drug- or meth-fueled, along with some healthy skepticism of such.  Based on what, exactly?


It's called Captagon




Hamas terrorists who carried out a surprise attack on October 7 were found to be under the influence of Captagon, a synthetic amphetamine-type stimulant that has been clandestinely produced in southern Europe and trafficked through Turkey to the consumer markets on the Arabian Peninsula, as reported by Nir Dvori of Channel 12.






The pills were recovered from the pockets of many terrorists who lost their lives on Israeli soil.








Captagon belongs to the amphetamine family and was initially developed to address attention disorders, narcolepsy, and depression. Despite its highly addictive nature and potential for inducing psychotic reactions, it continues to enjoy popularity in the Middle East due to its affordability and ease of manufacturing. In poorer countries, the drug can be purchased for a dollar or two, while in wealthier nations, it may cost up to 20 dollars per pill.






Its primary effects include arousing feelings of euphoria, reducing the need for sleep, suppressing appetite, and providing sustained energy.






According to medical professionals in Lebanon and Syria, Captagon is not only prevalent among fighters but is also frequently used by desperate civilians residing in conflict zones.






Once a source of revenue for ISIS members through drug smuggling, Captagon has now become a major source of income for Syria and is actively supported by Hezbollah.






Around two years ago, an investigation conducted by The New York Times revealed that individuals associated with Syrian dictator Bashar Assad, including family members, had established a thriving industry for the production of Captagon.




				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of August 21, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Wesley Yang (coined "Successor Ideology") interviews Corinna Cohn, former trans activist, now regretting his (born male, now prefers male pronouns) transition as a teenager in the early 1990s.


I seem to recall the name from maybe 5-10 years ago, with some annoyance, like maybe pushing ultrawoke Code of Conduct mandates on open source projects.  Might be wrong, haven't yet checked.


Now Cohn acknowledges being male and rejects his transition, but for health reasons remains on estrogen treatment.  I suppose there is some question of what it means to be a detransitioner.  Wesley Yang is well equipped to tear into this lamb, and does so, as far as I can tell.  This is gonna hurt.


I have only read the posted transcripts, a tiny sliver.  An excerpt:




On Affirming Parents






Corinna:






“For every parent who is transitioning their child, here's the future: your kid is going to get into their 20s and 30s. somewhere in this range. Even the ones who are failing to launch are going to figure out how to actually get their shit together at some point. Every one of these kids is going to start to ruminate. “How did this happen to me?” None of them are going to say, “Why did I do this to myself?” Because they didn't have agency. They didn't know. It doesn't matter if they said, “Oh, I really, really, really want to be a girl, mommy.” They don't know. They've got no idea. They're not even going to remember that. Right? They're not going to know that.”






“They're going to start thinking — “How did this happen to me?” And they're going to get to know kids. They're going to get to know children. Newborn babies. They're going to be involved with the lives of these children. They're going to watch them grow up and become thinking human beings. They're going to even watch them become adults. And they're going to know what innocence looks like. And they're going to start to remember that their innocence was absolutely destroyed.






And they're going to want to know why. And they will know at the time — I'm telling, I'm telling you now that the reason that this happens is largely because of the sexual interests of men like Rachel Levine, Admiral Levine, and other men who have continual fantasies that they wanted to be little girls”






So you have you have sent these children to satisfy the fantasies of these men. These children when they become adults are going to realize that this is why their innocence was destroyed: to make these fantasies come true. And the first people who will get the blame for this will be their parents. That is the future. That is the future.






Wesley: So I don't remember his name, bu he's like, “I'm 28 Look at me. I'm puberty blocked…”






Corinna. That was Seth.






Wesley: That was so powerful. And you're saying like, that's gonna happen to all these fucking parents?"






Corinna: Yes. It will not matter to these adult children…






Wesley: …that they begged and demanded and connived in order to get this is…






Corinna: I’m not even talking about that part. It won’t matter to these kids that their parents’ calculus was they want zero of one child to commit suicide. They don't care about one in 20,000. They want zero of one to commit suicide.






They won't care about their parents’ concerns. A lot of them aren't going to be able to have their own kids and so they're never going to even learn how to think like a parent. They're always going to think like a child. They're not going to appreciate what their parents were up against — being lied to by the government. Being lied to by their president being lied to by their doctors.






They're going to think “my parents ruined me.” For what? Why did my parents did my parents do this to me






So parents: that's what you have to look forward to.”




Corinna is no lamb at all.  This is two wolves and a lamb deciding what's for dinner.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of January 8, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I think there is a fundamental misunderstanding of the motivation behind the paintballs.  The local citizens are not trying to solve the problem of homelessness, locally or globally.  They are acting in their self interest, attempting to preserve the good aspects of their city and prevent them from sliding down into vagrancy, filth, violence, and drugs.  This is a broad, human, historical civilizational norm.


Austin, SF, and Seattle violate this norm.  They attract vagrancy rather than repel it.


If you want to solve homelessness, start with one.  Pick a project person, take them into your home, let their problems become your problems, and I believe you will understand the nature of the solution and be able to advocate for it more effectively.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Israel-Gaza Megathread #1
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
The Comanche and Apache, at the very least, felt the same way about the Americans, and other tribes, and behaved accordingly.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of July 24, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


a “bunker / shelter” that would be used for “some event where 50%-99.99% of people die [to] ensure that most EAs [effective altruists] survive”




This is especially galling coming from the guy who will flip a 50.1% coin forever at double or nothing on civilization's behalf.  We might all be lucky he blew up "early".


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of July 24, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


after Mexico demanded the federal government make Texas remove them




What, exactly, is the argument for removing border barriers?  Can we analyze the tradeoffs and incentives?  Why are Mexico and USA seemingly interested in more illegal border crossings while Texas is not?  What are the costs and benefits?  What are the tradeoffs?  It seems to me that if foreigners are penetrating a border, the recipient country is justified to install disincentives and defenses.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Israel-Gaza Megathread #1
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
While I can imagine how Hamas was able to get multiple vehicles across the border to Israel, it baffles me that they could take hostages and somehow just drive back.  When a sensitive border like that is penetrated, shouldn't there be a 3 alarm fire type of response?


Like, if I was a Hamas gunman, I wouldn't expect to be returning home.  Perhaps there is a special strategy for the hostage takers?  How are we characterizing the border breach, and for how long did it remain unsecured?


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Israel-Gaza Megathread #2
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
B I N L A D E N


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of March 25, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
There is an undying faction of TMA (traditional martial arts) which refers to BJJ as blowjob jujitsu or similar, as though some rhetorical win can possibly reverse the steamroller that modern MMA represents.  Reassuringly, this faction gets smaller every year as the evidence rolls in.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of May 15, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Sure, but it takes the sting out of




this community in particular had egregious problems with this




When in fact it's a general problem and not particular to this community.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of January 8, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


Would somebody shooting paintballs at you actually motivate you to get a job?




The paintballs are motivation to be homeless somewhere else.  A local solution that is not masquerading as a global solution.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of July 31, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Blame TheMattell


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Israel-Gaza Megathread #2
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Foreign policy is a thing, and Israel is one of the US' most steadfast allies outside of the Anglosphere and the #1 ally in the Middle East, modulo oil and weapons deals with the Saudis.


There is also the question of shared values.  Liberal democracies are natural allies, unlike the rest of the Middle East.


It has very little to do with religion or ethnicity, IMHO.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of September 25, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Just some feedback as there are no replies here.  There is a distinction between a wall of text and an effortpost, but it can be subtle.  OP reads more like the latter, to its credit.  But while I was nodding my head according to the first 5 paragraphs or so, I had an intense desire to "get to the point".  While I understand the value of dripping out information and keeping the reader hooked and engaged, I found myself skipping ahead to try to find the thesis, or novel point being made.


I have a concrete suggestion: if it takes more than 5 paragraphs to "get to the point", then you're better off summarizing and defending, rather than buttressing and presenting.


To be clear, I guess I am delineating two different rhetoric styles: buttress and present, where by the time the point is presented, it's basically a foregone conclusion; and summarize and defend, whereby the point is not hidden til the last minute but is instead presented early, allowing the reader to grapple with it, and then defended later by the author.


Both styles have their places.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of September 4, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I'd strongly suspect there is a prison pipeline that feeds "Aryan Nation" type ideology, and these types do buy into it.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of July 24, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


Where are the creative songbirds of thought and word who would transcend this opposition and maybe get both sides to become aware that both are equally stuck in the human condition?




Joe Rogan, maybe?  Jordan Peterson, less so.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of January 22, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Eh, what about carbon monoxide poisoning, or nitrogen narcosis, or enough morphine to kill a large horse?  Or heck, how about general anesthesia followed by a severing of the carotid?


Have we really not figured out how to reliably get a human to go to sleep and never wake up?


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Transnational Thanksgiving (comes one day early)
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
It will be interesting to see what happens in the next 5 days.  Number one, Israel expects Hamas to violate the the ceasefire, per usual.  Of course this suggests a false flag attack as well, where Israel stages a pretext for a retaliatory response.  I expect that Hamas accepts the cease-fire posture at the top, but there may be provocations and skirmishes at low levels originating on both sides.  I doubt we will get to the first 5 days without a major violation or conflict.


Prediction: 5 day ceasefire is honored by both sides, as judged by lack of hostilities or contention by the end of the period: 50%


This includes a successful hostage exchange.  I expect there to be minor quibbles and contention.  But we should know, broadly and deeply, whether each side is reasonably satisfied.


If the first 5 days go acceptably for both sides, the next 5 are likely to as well.


Prediction: 10 days of ceasefire and hostage exchanges are "successful" (not without hurdles and reversals): 10%


Again, are both sides reasonably satisfied?


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of August 21, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
The cost of enforcing zero bike theft is generally higher than allowing a few thefts.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of June 26, 2023
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


the almost certainly true idea that it requires far less innate talent to be a straight-A/high SAT asian student from Palo Alto than it does to be a straight-A/high SAT black student from Detroit,




This doesn't seem obvious, unless you are having innate talent do the heavy lifting.  What do you mean by innate talent, and is there any evidence for your claim?


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of January 8, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I have a prior against the accuracy of the surveys, as there is definitely a "narrative" to uphold, and I have to imagine the survey takers are themselves homeless advocates and activists, more interested accumulating and distributing resources than hardheaded analysis.  Still, taking these numbers at face value:


Of 100 homeless people:


    

  • 30 were homeless elsewhere and moved to SF
    • 

  • 4 became homeless within a year of moving to SF
    • 

  • 28 were living housed in SF for between 1 and 10 years
    • 

  • 38 were living housed in SF for more than 10 years
    • 



How does one randomly sample homeless people?  Is this a representative sample?  I would survey most egregious cases first -- the zombies milling about the UN plaza in the open air drug market.  The shitters, shooters, hitters, harassers, yellers.  Maybe the ones with the most encounters with police.  I can imagine the sampling in this survey was done via more "official" means, like those contacting advocacy orgs, shelters, case workers, etc.  There are very real methodological difficulties here.   I haven't yet dug into the details of the survey, but maybe you are familiar with it?


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Israel-Gaza Megathread #2
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I wish your first link was something other than a google search result, which will of course change drastically over time, complicating any analysis or discussion.


It looks like Israel bombed a neighboring residence (I would expect an apartment building but the current results refer to a "house").  It seems strange that the Israelis would bomb a single family residence (aka "house").  And the damage extended, presumably unintentionally, to the church.


I suppose we'll see if there is a characteristic Israeli crater or not.  And at this point, maybe Israel can drop the equivalent of small barrel bombs as a false flag to implicate Hamas, etc.


I doubt Israel intentionally bombed a church  unless it was a legitimate military target, which is entirely possible given the defensive strategy of Hamas, etc.  I tend to defer to Arnold Kling's reasoning for this type of situation: https://arnoldkling.substack.com/p/the-gaza-hospital-tragedy


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Israel-Gaza Megathread #1
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I just re-learned about rabies, in the last 10 days:


    

  • if you're symptomatic, you're a dead man walking
    • 

  • symptoms take weeks to months to present
    • 

  • symptoms include hydrophobia, which is an intense thirst combined with your musculoskeletal system refusing to accept water (via the nervous system)
    • 

  • IV fluids for some reason do not ameliorate
    • 

  • "foaming at the mouth" is related to increased saliva production combined with an inability to swallow said fluids
    • 

  • zombie-like symptoms including an instinct to bite others
    • 

  • transmitted primarily via saliva
    • 

  • zoonotic reservoirs are mostly bats and rodents, with dogs as the bridge to humans
    • 

  • very few canine or human cases in countries like USA
    • 

  • a really shit way to go
    • 

  • less prevalent but more scary than I thought
    •