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4d ago
If only we had infinite inflation. Then I can be a wealthy trillionaire.
Do you see the problem with your logic here?
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4d ago
No it is literally not making them poorer unless their income is housing speculation.
If you make $10k per month and have a $3k/month mortgage you consumption basket does not change if the value of the house is $1 or $10 million. Either way you have $7k/m for other consumption.
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4d ago
This is one reason I think Trump has a lot of room to do whatever he wants. I don’t think there is a coherent pragmatic Democratic Party right now. He might lose the mid-term but he can do things without 50% approval because when the big election occurs the Dems won’t be able to unit. It feels like a fractured party right now.
Bud Selig-Barry Bonds.
I guess baseball is the American past time so it’s fertile field for finding a parallel for American politics and in this case asylum abuse.
Steroids were of course illegal back when Bonds and everyone else was doing them. Bonds is not in the HOF because he took steroids despite having a legitimate argument for being the GOAT. I’ve never agreed a HOF should have a morality clause. The villains can get in too. It’s in the name “fame”. But this is basically a way of declaring Bonds a criminal. Selig is conveniently in the HOF. I have never understood this about the HOF since Selig was the enforcer of the rules and it always seemed to me like he made steroids unofficially legal.
Asylum under the Biden administration is very similar in my opinion. Asylum laws were never designed for people like Conejo. Everyone knows this. He is clearly an economic migrant. This is also weirdly basically a holocaust law in design since it’s from the post-war period. We have a Democratic process for making laws and Biden clearly allowed the law not to followed. He’s the Bud Selig in this situation.
Conejo I am going to call an illegal. Even though he claims to be following the asylum laws if he actually understood the law he would know the law doesn’t apply to him. He’s frauding America. I am not sure if a Spanish first person is even capable of understanding the word asylum or read the legalese; he just has counsel telling him to sign here etc and say these words. He’s of course my Barry Bonds in the situation. Following the system by how it is working during the 2020-2024 and not the spirit or letter of the law.
Obviously we need to just deport the guy if we want to be a nation of laws. You can’t care if he has a cute 5 year old kid with him or then the first thing anyone who sneaks into the country will do is get their gf pregnant and then hide for 9 months. And that’s basically open borders with zero control over who lives here.
I guess this is just more evidence that Biden was the villain either thru choice or dementia. If you want the rule of law to mean anything then we need to follow the law honesty and you can’t have huge gaps in what the law means like asylum.
I’ll joke I am a fascists now. That’s because I don’t think we have or had the rule of law recently. At which point opting-out of our system is just recognizing what has already happened. Legitimacy was already losts.
For the record I do think first safe country can be a little stretchy. For Venezuelans they come close to the purpose of asylum legalese. And I think it can be argued when you have 10 million asylum seekers it would be unreasonable for them to all go to the first safe country which is basically Colombia. If you view them as legitimate asylum seekers then it would be reasonable to spread them out across the major countries in the Americas. I don’t think during WW2 people would reason Switzerland needed to accept 10m Jews. If you also view Venezuelans as legitimate asylum seekers then I think creating 10m asylum migrants makes an US-Venezuelan hostilities as Just War with the US being the hegemon of the Americas.
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4d ago
Be careful. Miners can be hard. Lots of fraud and poor governance in the sector. You can get the price right and lose because some African Warlord stole your uranium or insiders ripped you off on related party transactions. A lot can go wrong.
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5d ago
I feel like this is just punting on stuff and not how I would professionally trad to achieve that goal.
Here is what I would do. Study every product offered by wealth advisors or etf sponsor etc and try to figure out how to use those as timing tools.
Two recent ones
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At the end of the year I look for trades that have losts to position for January rips. Why? Direct indexing is growing as a product and now has 100’s of billions in assets. What does it do - its takes losses to offset taxes. Especially at the end of the year. This year I bought a lot of chemical stocks. CLX, Dow plus a few more that were in the down big camp. Index on markets has not down much to start the year. All these names rallied 15-20% between Dec 30 - Jan 15. There is some art to timing the longs but this edge seems repeatable yearly and does not take a lot of tech.
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The double levered etfs all need to rebalance daily. The low in silver was basically 1:25 pm. When does the double levered silver etf do its rehedging? You guessed correct 1:25. I believe you got a $8-10 pnl from 1:25 to 2:00. You can pretty much do this trade in a retail account. If you were Jane St and wanted to do these arbs and do real size then yes you would need a tech stack to minimize slippage. I’ll be honest i missed the timing on this one. But I should have known this.
If you only did these trades at 100% account value. You now are up 25-30% in January. Keep searching for edges that will pop up in large retail products and I think you could turn $1m into $5 min in 2 years if you really focused and went all-in on these things.
Leveraged uranium long sounds stupid to me. If you mean doing something that is an etf and leverages for you. The daily rebalancing kills performance. I guess it’s fine if you are taking out the margin yourself. Everyone wants to have some brainy macro thesis right to brag about, but the real way to make money in markets is to figure out a bunch of edges to work and grind out pnl monthly.
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5d ago
Ok so you might be non-conventional. I feel like most guys I know always date the same girl. I had one person in my 20 something friend group I would always get in conflict with because we would always want the same girl. Other friends this never occurred because even if the girl was conventionally attractive and I knew that I would have zero interest in her.
I feel like most men do have very strong types. If you are going to pay for sex you are probably going to buy exactly what you want. I guess it’s possible Trump would have sex with someone like 16 year old Britney Spears but I think most people who have pedophile attraction prefer girls who have ballerina style bodies (no chest, fairly-like 90 lb girls).
It would be interesting to know why % of men have true attraction to a wide variety of body types. My gut says it’s very low.
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5d ago
I am disappointed that the Trump admin has returned him. His asylum case looks obviously bs to me since Ecuador is not an extremely dangerous country and there are many places between the US and Ecuador. If the Biden admin can just do something illegal then I have no issue just ignoring a court on deportation. Being a nation of laws was broken before Trump showed up.
Unless this breaks some obvious threshold where I need to notice I am likely going to ignore anything on Trump. I 100% believe he banged Stormy Daniels for money but none of his ex-wives fit the pedophilia bro type. I do not think there is a huge overlap in guys who bang Daniel’s (big breast) and into underage girls.
For the reason perhaps I should give other people with accusations the benefit of the doubt. Bill Gates though does have pedophile vibes. Even DiCaprio vibes like a guy who would probably go younger if he was allowed to. Trump just seems to have always gone for a different body type.
“He knows a lot of people” It’s weird how a quote from a movie will stick with, but in the movie never been kissed the one baseball player friend of hers who also went back to High School said something like, “If one person says your cool then everyone will go with it”. My view is if you have one famous person vouche for you and then you meet 5 more and handle it well then it’s easy to know 500 famous rich people. You are in the club. It’s much harder to find the first famous friend than number 100.
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7d ago
I don’t think finance bros give a shit about grammar. But there is also a huge divide between private equity types and public market types. You need stronger soft skills if you interact with non-finance people and need to sell stuff and build out a business like in PE.
It does seem like Epstein was more of a tax guy and/or wealth management guy.
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7d ago
Ok good posts. I don’t think this isn’t great example of what I wanted it to be of a system working fine where we put a finger on the scale to make sure 5% of Harvard are ADOS.
The issue with their behavior here is most people just believe it’s cringe. The Wire event had their hustlers having truces during Church hours and it was considered really bad to take a shot at Omar at Church. Church time has been off limits for all worldly things in society. It’s similar to not killing your enemies at peace summits or The Red Wedding but the Church time pause has been stronger.
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7d ago
So much of our legalese is based on assumptions of how to deal with black-white issues in an 85% white country but completely become unworkable when we now have 100 oppressed minority groups. We can look the other way on some American constitutional rights to throw some bones to the 15%. Laws to deal with the Klan now get extended to basically everyone since everyone finds a way to be the oppressed.
We don’t actually have a Chesterton fence for dealing with a multicultural society in the US plus the sudden invention that everyone has their own sex.
Affirmative Action or hate crime laws can functional work when its goal is make sure ADOS gets 5% of Harvards Freshman class or for making sure a lower class person doesn’t do explicitly racists stuff.
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7d ago
Losers pays without strict boundaries can of course be very bad too if the one paying the bill has deep pockets. It’s a recipe for the winning side to run of their lawyer tab for frivolous things. JPMorgan was the victim in a fraud of a start-up they bought but ended up having to pay the other sides legal bills as they had become an employee.
It can be bad for 50-50 cases. Like think of Chevron and Exxon suing each other. The winning side could end up working out a deal where they inflate their bills in the win in exchange for lightly billing on other work etc.
The JPMorgan case is probably the extreme of extremes.
And of course long shot cases like the Tobacco lawsuits would have been tough to bring. Especially if you required deposits to bring a case if the one suing is judgement proof because they are a poor smoker dying.
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7d ago
This is a bit like suicidal empathy.
The left has gotten good at making these strawman arguments. Where nuance goes out the window. As to your question “no serious person”
Me.
If my choice is we can enforce immigration law but I have to say yes to executing some agitators it’s yes.
It’s the same with shipping 20k Haitians to small town. What are you racists for opposing. If my choice is dropping 20k cultural foreign people into my small town or being racists - I am choosing racists.
The right has moved in a direction of feeling the need to remove any empathy from decision making because if you show one ounce of empathy your cooked. When I was growing up some how we didn’t push things to those extremes. We could paper over issues and not push it that far.
The prototypical lefty in the aughts was I believe Sandy Cohen of the OC who do the do gooder stuff and make the world a better place. But he wouldn’t push things to breaking the social contract with the other side.
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7d ago
If as an organization you don’t want to seem political - then don’t be political. The fed has made two mistakes here.
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Like everything else especially on the Dem appointment side the Fed was woke 2020-2024. All th bosses had to find their next gig or wanted Powell’s job. Things like we need to keep rates low because of black unemployment etc which is something most people think monetary policy is not a viable tool to target.
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On policy decision judgement calls my vibe is the fed has given Dems easier policy than GOP. 2018 we had a Dec stock market crash during a hiking cycle. We didn’t have inflation and a plausible argument could be made with had 30-40 bps of output gap to run it hotter. And during the Biden administration we had the reverse polio and let inflation get stupid. The supply shock were mostly wrong as we had huge surges in nominal spending. Supply shock inflation would have shown inflation but nominal spending in line with long term growth rates (around 4%). It is a judgement call but it certainly vibes to me that Dems had a different strike zone.
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8d ago
For actual ghetto black it’s going to be essentially zero for any one on this chat. Best I’ve got would be in sports or a buddies coke dealer. And those would still have a good deal of filtering and not be the dysfunction in West Baltimore.
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8d ago
Sure. Though there are actual foreign invaders being defended here. And this is more than one day.
But yes a lot of things just break down to whose the good guy and whose the bad guy.
I’ve also never said Babbit was a bad shot. George Washington is both a traitor and a Patriot. Whoever writes the history books gets to choose.
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8d ago
This wasn’t the death penalty but close enough to self defense that you can’t convict anyone.
He is also very close to “deserved it” by civilization standards. Insurrection while aligning with foreign agents is generally considered fine for “deserved it”. Yea you can call this an uncharitable take but he basically did that.
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8d ago
Yes the gun fired itself narrative seems to be weakening. A civil settlement though I’m not sure on. I am about 50-50 that this was suicide by ICE. I would put it at 20% chance he would have shot ICE if he had not been disarmed as the video seems to show him reaching where his gun would have been.
It’s a bad shoot in that when the shot was taken he was not a threat. But if you do his behavior 100 times you probably end up shot twice. Pay out in those situations creates a bad precedent.
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8d ago
I think any chance of a criminal conviction is basically zero especially since I believe only the feds can charge.
While it was a bad shoot the current theory is his gun fired on its own. If be bought a cheap gun that malfunctioned and fired on its own then maybe he doesn’t have a civil claim. Obviously the cops are allowed to return fire. If his defective gun that he provided did the first shot then it was seem like liability is back on him. It’s reasonable for an officer to assume they are being shot at when they hear a shot.
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8d ago
Who would prosecute the arrest and who would on the jury? I get a sense that it would be nearly impossible to get a conviction in Minnesota. This may just be me being paranoid but I feel like jury nullification would be an issue.
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8d ago
I think this completely changes the incident.
- How often you fuck up I believe is a key metric. This is evidence that ICE has a lot of confrontations.
- We now know ICE knew he was dangerous and crazy. That’s important information for informing their state of mind and how jumpy they are with him being armed.
In this case you are actually losing real consumption. You are destroying my consumption good.
As far as being “underwater” on the mortgage your monthly payment doesn’t change. You can still have the same consumption basketball whether your house is worth $1 or $10 million. And of course you are wealthier if a new house costs $1. You could keep your current house and buy a vacation home because houses are cheap.
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