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9d ago
It’s possible all ownership options have gotten cut. Civil Engineers have low salaries. But then they can get into being a contractor, some specialized business where being the smart guys helps, design build, development, etc where there is more money than being salaried.
The administrative state has definitely sucked up a lot of the rising costs in medicine.
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9d ago
I can’t just google “average salaries”. If we’ve learned anything the last few years data lies. I just know anecdotally every Doctor I’ve ever met over 50 is quite wealthy. I’d have to do fundamentally research to figure out what’s going on.
Believe my best friends dad does goes cardiovascular. They have ten homes and 25m in brokerage accounts. My gut says mid-career ops exists where someone no longer gets classified as “salary” Doctor and earnings magnify.
The AMA is powerful. They’ve restricted supply of Doctors. It doesn’t make sense that real per capita medical spending more than 2x between 1990-2025 and the AMA didn’t get a cut of that. “Everyone else” in medicine got rich except Doctors is what you are saying.
Most I am referring to would be parents dads. So 55-70. All seem to be in the $1-5m pay range. Sometimes they moved to medical adjacent later in career. (Pharma, Corp Scientist)
The articles with headlines “Doctors don’t make any money” seem as truthful to me as Civil Engineers grade American infrastructure a “D” and we need to spend trillions fixing it.
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9d ago
To be clear that’s the left making that an issue. And specifically blue sky leftists.
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9d ago
Isn’t that normal especially in war? Nothing about that is moral degeneracy - homosexuality back then or pedophilia.
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9d ago
I don’t think Nazis had a lot of sexual abuses. Right wing orgs are different than left-wing orgs. Best example I have is there doesn’t seem to be many claims of pedophilia or sexual degeneracy in maga. Right-wing probably does select for profiteers etc but moral degeneracy I don’t think so. Like maybe Peter Thiel? There are some homosexuals in maga. But worst I’ve seen is Thiel having 20 something sugar babies.
The Nazis themselves were a claimed response to Jewish degeneracy.
MAGA seems fine with age-gap relationships and men using power to get sex from of-age girls. But I don’t think that’s the same thing as the child porn stuff popping up on left.
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9d ago
This would be a good step. In the US we can also likely lower standards for becoming Doctors if we increase our capacity to train Doctors. There are plenty of kids who would become Doctors if it was easy to get into medical schools and a shorter path. Plenty of kids at top 30 US universities getting filtered out who still have very high academic standards.
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9d ago
Doctor pay feels like something “when the data doesn’t fit the anecdotes usually the data is wrong” - which I think was a Bezos management philosophy.
I feel like I have a lot of friends dads who are doctors and clearing low 7-figures. My gut says the data isn’t capturing a lot of Doctor pay. Health care spending has exploded; granted a lot of this is the expansion of the administrative state; but are you telling me Doctors have failed to capture any of the increased spending?
Biotech stocks, pharma, etc haven’t done great the last decade. Who’s getting rich in medicine? We all know overall spending has exploded.
Missing the metoo accusation by Megan Wachspress against Daniel Biss in his primary. It happened 20 years ago. He was an Associate Professor of Math at UC when she was an undergraduate. This sounds bad.
Turns out they went on a few dates. Made out. He was 4 years older than her. She’s now a law lecturer at Stanford. He’s now doing politics. Supposedly this race was very big in the progressive circles. He still ended up winning so all is now losts with crazies. Blue sky 100% takes her side that a bad thing happened to her. She blames it for why she didn’t become a math professor.
My hot take: they really should have just fucked and got married. Both are reasonably attractive for UC people back then. Both were good at math. Both ended up in wordcell professions. So basically they are the same person. It’s not great a professor dating his student but all of the actual details says it made sense for them to date.
I think this is basically an example where formal rules (which he broke) often don’t fit the nuances of a situation. Only crazy people have a problem with a 26 year old dating a 22 year old who have a lot in common.
This prompt works well enough to asks grok to get you a valuation model. I don’t agree with all its assumptions, but it’s good enough for someone to see the math on how you theoretically derive a stock price. Can choose any symbol. MSFT can out as about 70% of value is from earnings after 7 years.
“ For MSFT can you give me a quick dcf model for its stock valuation. Give me rough estimates of its cash flows for the next seven years and show the $ value of those earnings discounted to today and then show terminal value calculations”
Disclosure: short 3% of portfolio oil etfs
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10d ago
Per capita income world bank in purchasing power terms in Iran is like $19,000. Pre-US invasion Afghan had like $500 per capita income and with US war aid rose to $1000. One country builds nukes and the other herds sheep. Their might be some common language but they are not the same people.
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10d ago
If you want to compare coal plants to coal plants etc then you would want to exclude a lot of software/tech stocks versus foreign stocks. Then you would be comparing similar industries. Most EM indexes are commodities, usually one Verizon type firm, and banks. It just doesn’t make sense to compare a copper mining stock index to Apple.
IMO US stock market versus rest of the world isn’t a great counter-argument here. It’s mostly been a value stocks versus tech rotation. Low valuation stocks have done well everywhere. Foreign indexes don’t have mag 7 or IT/software which entered the period expensive. If you compare says banks or industrials (bulk of foreign stocks) their far more similar performance.
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11d ago
You lost on trade. Trump did tariffs and nothing bad happens, the economy did as good as before, stocks boomed, and a bunch of tax revenue was created.
We can quote some old dead guy. Or we just did an experiment and have results.
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11d ago
You can’t turn Iran into Afghanistan because Iran is populated by Persians and Afghanistan is populated by Afghan. That’s like saying you can turn Japan into Afghanistan.
Think you should do an excel dcf model one time before investing. One time profits from (like a oil price surchage boosting prices) is an incredible small part of a stocks valuation.
Jane St will gap the oil stocks down on “war ended” before you even see the headline.
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11d ago
Why US oil companies. Most of a companies value is terminal value and not current cash flows. Is this war going to last 15 years?
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11d ago
We don’t live in that world. Have you considered being Amish?
You can’t have a complex industrial society without a rule maker.
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12d ago
Current country partisan makeup basically means nothing can pass with the filibuster. The government does have to govern
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12d ago
Regardless we already expanded the executive powers to rule instead of congress.
Filibuster isn’t in the constitution. The founding fathers definitely believed that there are things that need to be done at the national level.
For this specific discussion we are talking about border security which every founding father would 100% agree congress should make laws about it.
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12d ago
Removing the filibuster is getting fairly popular with anyone of intellect. A lot of people are realizing we have too many checks and balances and congress does nothing.
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12d ago
No politician is going to go teach high school math. It’s beneath them. That’s a IQ 105 job which most should be well above.
You can ban book fees sure. Then JD Vance returns to Ohio and becomes a raspberry farmer. Peter Thiel buys a lot of raspberries (basically identical to doing book deals). A lot of the book deals actually make money because a Democrat aligned PAC or non-profit buys a lot of Hillary Clinton books and distributes them. Thiel can just donate raspberries to poor white kids. Any legitimate business you can think of can be designed to give a kickback. And they will. So you need to end up banning all forms of compensation to thousands of top politicos/policy people.
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12d ago
You are literally banning a public official from ever having a job again. That’s sort of what a book is a bribe for service. But you could basically call any work a politician does when out of office a bribe. Which isn’t good either. Some things are just tough to legislate.
Does Citadel and Goldman pay every ex-fed board member a speaking fee? Yes. Do they probably get something more than just a good speech? Probably yes. Is the a way to actual ban this without banning any later private sector work? No
The only thing we could do is pay every out of office politician $500k a year for life. And then ban any other compensation.
I thought Ukraine has sued for peace. But Russia has never offered anything besides everyone dies.
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