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20hr ago
They have been largely hosting US troops for decades as a tripwire against Iran and maybe a lesser extent Iraq decades ago.
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22hr ago
So he decided he wanted to be Italian? Anglos are out. Everyone wants to be Catholic and Italian now
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1d ago
I feel like I am now probably in the Covid denier anti-vaxx camp. And I believe it’s correct. I have a reasonable basis for believing I am usually smarter than others, but I think the true science says it was rational that I locked in before lock-downs but quit doing anything 2 months later (as an under 40 not fat person). I only got vaccinated once because I had an asymptomatic covid case and the first jab (probably signaling an immune response from having covid) knocked me out for 2 days. Which to me both signaled I had immunity and it’s just stupid to take a shot that puts you in bed.
Locking down did make sense to me as we didn’t have a full understanding of the virus for a few weeks.
Questions I would asks would be why were politicians probably a full week late shutting down. And why did locking down, 5 doses of vaccine (for younger people), wearing a stupid cotton masks became things for so long. Was it:
- Politicians are mostly dumber than me
- I’m autistic
- Changing policy is like turning the Titanic
- People just like playing political games. Calling righties a death cult and stupid was far too fun of a game to play that many people were ok suffering a lot themselves personally if they got to play that game.
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1d ago
Hardware versus software. Russia was very clear they weren’t going to let Ukraine culture be Ukraine culture but would Russify it.
“I think therefore I am” - Rene Descartes.
If at the barrel of a gun I am forced to change how I think then it kind of feels like death to me. Russia’s goals were not to change lines on a map but cultural control thru violence.
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1d ago
The humans there don’t die in a physical sense. But the do die in terms of having any sense of agency or an independent cultures. The best offer Ukraine has received is something like become the equivalent of a Native American tribe. You live but not as a society.
It’s never been that “stupid” for them to fight as a poster claimed.
Sitting here an American; the Revolutionary War was orders of magnitude stupider. It was over a tax of 2-3% and of course thousands did in war.
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2d ago
I thought Ukraine has sued for peace. But Russia has never offered anything besides everyone dies.
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5d ago
It’s possible all ownership options have gotten cut. Civil Engineers have low salaries. But then they can get into being a contractor, some specialized business where being the smart guys helps, design build, development, etc where there is more money than being salaried.
The administrative state has definitely sucked up a lot of the rising costs in medicine.
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5d ago
I can’t just google “average salaries”. If we’ve learned anything the last few years data lies. I just know anecdotally every Doctor I’ve ever met over 50 is quite wealthy. I’d have to do fundamentally research to figure out what’s going on.
Believe my best friends dad does goes cardiovascular. They have ten homes and 25m in brokerage accounts. My gut says mid-career ops exists where someone no longer gets classified as “salary” Doctor and earnings magnify.
The AMA is powerful. They’ve restricted supply of Doctors. It doesn’t make sense that real per capita medical spending more than 2x between 1990-2025 and the AMA didn’t get a cut of that. “Everyone else” in medicine got rich except Doctors is what you are saying.
Most I am referring to would be parents dads. So 55-70. All seem to be in the $1-5m pay range. Sometimes they moved to medical adjacent later in career. (Pharma, Corp Scientist)
The articles with headlines “Doctors don’t make any money” seem as truthful to me as Civil Engineers grade American infrastructure a “D” and we need to spend trillions fixing it.
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5d ago
To be clear that’s the left making that an issue. And specifically blue sky leftists.
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5d ago
Isn’t that normal especially in war? Nothing about that is moral degeneracy - homosexuality back then or pedophilia.
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6d ago
I don’t think Nazis had a lot of sexual abuses. Right wing orgs are different than left-wing orgs. Best example I have is there doesn’t seem to be many claims of pedophilia or sexual degeneracy in maga. Right-wing probably does select for profiteers etc but moral degeneracy I don’t think so. Like maybe Peter Thiel? There are some homosexuals in maga. But worst I’ve seen is Thiel having 20 something sugar babies.
The Nazis themselves were a claimed response to Jewish degeneracy.
MAGA seems fine with age-gap relationships and men using power to get sex from of-age girls. But I don’t think that’s the same thing as the child porn stuff popping up on left.
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6d ago
This would be a good step. In the US we can also likely lower standards for becoming Doctors if we increase our capacity to train Doctors. There are plenty of kids who would become Doctors if it was easy to get into medical schools and a shorter path. Plenty of kids at top 30 US universities getting filtered out who still have very high academic standards.
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6d ago
Doctor pay feels like something “when the data doesn’t fit the anecdotes usually the data is wrong” - which I think was a Bezos management philosophy.
I feel like I have a lot of friends dads who are doctors and clearing low 7-figures. My gut says the data isn’t capturing a lot of Doctor pay. Health care spending has exploded; granted a lot of this is the expansion of the administrative state; but are you telling me Doctors have failed to capture any of the increased spending?
Biotech stocks, pharma, etc haven’t done great the last decade. Who’s getting rich in medicine? We all know overall spending has exploded.
Missing the metoo accusation by Megan Wachspress against Daniel Biss in his primary. It happened 20 years ago. He was an Associate Professor of Math at UC when she was an undergraduate. This sounds bad.
Turns out they went on a few dates. Made out. He was 4 years older than her. She’s now a law lecturer at Stanford. He’s now doing politics. Supposedly this race was very big in the progressive circles. He still ended up winning so all is now losts with crazies. Blue sky 100% takes her side that a bad thing happened to her. She blames it for why she didn’t become a math professor.
My hot take: they really should have just fucked and got married. Both are reasonably attractive for UC people back then. Both were good at math. Both ended up in wordcell professions. So basically they are the same person. It’s not great a professor dating his student but all of the actual details says it made sense for them to date.
I think this is basically an example where formal rules (which he broke) often don’t fit the nuances of a situation. Only crazy people have a problem with a 26 year old dating a 22 year old who have a lot in common.
This prompt works well enough to asks grok to get you a valuation model. I don’t agree with all its assumptions, but it’s good enough for someone to see the math on how you theoretically derive a stock price. Can choose any symbol. MSFT can out as about 70% of value is from earnings after 7 years.
“ For MSFT can you give me a quick dcf model for its stock valuation. Give me rough estimates of its cash flows for the next seven years and show the $ value of those earnings discounted to today and then show terminal value calculations”
Disclosure: short 3% of portfolio oil etfs
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6d ago
Per capita income world bank in purchasing power terms in Iran is like $19,000. Pre-US invasion Afghan had like $500 per capita income and with US war aid rose to $1000. One country builds nukes and the other herds sheep. Their might be some common language but they are not the same people.
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6d ago
If you want to compare coal plants to coal plants etc then you would want to exclude a lot of software/tech stocks versus foreign stocks. Then you would be comparing similar industries. Most EM indexes are commodities, usually one Verizon type firm, and banks. It just doesn’t make sense to compare a copper mining stock index to Apple.
IMO US stock market versus rest of the world isn’t a great counter-argument here. It’s mostly been a value stocks versus tech rotation. Low valuation stocks have done well everywhere. Foreign indexes don’t have mag 7 or IT/software which entered the period expensive. If you compare says banks or industrials (bulk of foreign stocks) their far more similar performance.
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7d ago
You lost on trade. Trump did tariffs and nothing bad happens, the economy did as good as before, stocks boomed, and a bunch of tax revenue was created.
We can quote some old dead guy. Or we just did an experiment and have results.
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7d ago
You can’t turn Iran into Afghanistan because Iran is populated by Persians and Afghanistan is populated by Afghan. That’s like saying you can turn Japan into Afghanistan.
Think you should do an excel dcf model one time before investing. One time profits from (like a oil price surchage boosting prices) is an incredible small part of a stocks valuation.
Jane St will gap the oil stocks down on “war ended” before you even see the headline.
I don’t love the term “terrorism” here since the electronics were clearly aimed at military targets and not civilians. No one calls it terrorism when you bomb an army base but some collateral damage kills civilians too. Terrorism I think by definition is causing civilian harm to change politics.
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