A weekly thread to discuss financial matters - from personal all the way up to global.
Ground Rules
- Remember that we're all just Internet randos. Don't bet your life savings on a hot tip from this thread.
- Keep culture war in the culture war thread. Yes, global events may impact our personal finances, but that does not mean we have to incessantly harp on culture war aspects here. If you are going to discuss it, please stick to the practical impacts of it on an individual level.
- Be kind. Remember that everyone here comes from different circumstances. We all have different resources available and different risk tolerances.
- Don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good. Better is better. Celebrate people when they take a step up and work to move their finances in the right direction. Don't flame out because they haven't followed what you consider the optimal path. Everybody has to start somewhere.
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Notes -
A while ago, I predicted that we would see one modest federal rate increase before the end of the year.
Since then, I've seen evidence for and against that prediction. Evidence in favor of a rate increase is that there were three votes in favor of an increase at the last meeting. Evidence against it is the recent weak jobs report, which pushes on the other side of the Fed's dual mandate.
Overall, I'm starting to lean against even that one token rate increase. What are your predictions?
Supposedly the bond market rates are rising, fed target rates be damned. I've seen predictions that the fed won't raise rates because the bond markets will have defacto raised rates for them anyways. So the question is actually, will the fed launch into more QE to take the edge off the bond market?
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