ser
8d ago
Have you tried reframing your conversations about this topic? Instead of saying focusing on her weight gain, how about taking a health angle? If your wife (and maybe you too) have unhealthy eating habits like eating too much processed foods/takeout, you could say that you're worried for your (collective) health and want to eat healthier. That way you'd be both addressing the problem of her gaining weight, but also involve yourself so that she doesn't feel she's getting attacked by you.
ser
1mo ago
You're not wrong. But the goal of this technique is to make myself feel better in the moment. I'm much better at managing bad mindset on a good day.
I'm in my mid twenties, and I've recently realized that all the friends I've made after getting out of high school have been of superficial/situational type. I've had gym friends, with whom I'd hit the gym with. I've had party friends, with whom I'd hit the bars and clubs with. Then I've had hobby X/Y/Z friends, with whom I'd do those hobbies with. Those relationships never went beyond those common interests, and once either I or them stopped participating in our common interest, our relationship would fizzle out. I have the opposite experience with my childhood friend group. We barely have anything in common nowadays, but I know I can call any of them up and ask for help or talk about something absolutely random. I've never achieved that level of trust/closeness with friends I've made as I've gotten older. Is it what adult friendships are like or is it just me not being able to navigate social games? On one hand, I've been thinking it's on me - I've realized that all these new friendships require effort to maintain and progress. If I don't invite my gym bro friends to do other things with me, then our friendship will stay at the gym bro level forever. On the other hand, it seems a lot of people take that passive position, so always having to be the one that organizes things feels forced and doesn't grant much confidence in that relationship.
ser
1mo ago
The biggest thing that helped me cope with bad days is realizing that there will be good days in the future. I just think of the good times I've had recently and tell myself I'll experience those feelings again in the near future. It doesn't even have to be complex experiences, even just thinking about a song I really enjoyed recently usually helps. It doesn't cure depression/sadness but at the very least it prevents me from getting sucked into the doomer spiral. That way my shitty days don't turn into shitty weeks.
As for other things, I can relate to some of them. I'm not sure how to get out of that mindset though, so can't really help, sorry.
ser
2mo ago
Have you tried intentionally progressing your exposure therapy methods?
See, making it intentional would add an extra source of anxiety for me. While I've probably done ~80% of the things you've listed, I've never intentionally went out to perform these tasks. In general, I just try to catch my anxious thoughts and reflect on how they affect my decision making in the moment. E.g. If I don't know how to get to X place, my brain instantly starts looking for solutions that avoids social contact, I catch that thought and instantly force myself to do the opposite and ask a random person for directions. That way my brain doesn't have time to react and get anxious. With things like public speaking, I've noticed that I'm most anxious right before the event rather during it. It's kind of ironic, I think someone spontaneously putting me on the spot to make a speech would be less triggering than being told 3 days in advance to prepare a speech.
ser
2mo ago
Hey, just want to say big thank you for mentioning Ideal Parent Figure. As I was researching it, I stumbled upon EMDR (Eye movement desensitization and reprocessing therapy) and tried a virtual session last night. It's most likely a placebo effect, but I've had 0 social anxiety symptoms today. It was probably my first time feeling like this in my whole adult life. Will continue with it and see how it goes.
Exposure therapy, lots of it. Public speaking in my case.
Yeah I do plenty of that in my daily life, but I think I need to do something more out of the ordinary, maybe take an improv class.
And lots of meditation. Including a guided style of meditation called Ideal Parent Figure. It can help you emotionally reconsolidate the difficult memories of episodes/life situations that contributed to your developing the anxiety.
That sounds interesting, thanks. Especially considering I attribute my social anxiety issues to one of the parents being extremely neurotic in my youth...
ser
2mo ago
The first was realizing that I was approaching the world with the mindset that everybody hated me and thought I was a loser. I decided to pretend instead that everybody was my friend, and surprise surprise, people respond to that and I started to believe it myself.
Oh trust me, I've had similar realization long time ago too. I think it did help me a bit, but my current problems come from physical social anxiety symptoms. I can come into a social situation with confident mental, but my physical symptoms still present themselves and it turns into a positive feedback loop. Increased heartbeat --> sweating & shaking --> 'oh my god, i hope they don't notice i'm a fucking wreck' --> more sweating & shaking. That's why I think sleep and exercise has made such a big difference for me, my physical symptoms have reduced significantly.
The second is less inspiring - an SSRI.
Meds will be my last resort. Really don't want to be hooked on something for the rest of my life
ser
2mo ago
People with social anxiety, how have you managed to cope or manage it? I've had it since 12 years old, I'm 25 now. The biggest impact for me has come from consistent sleep and exercise. Went from having hard time calling customer support and going to public places with a lot of people to having a slightly increased heartbeat when talking to people I'm not familiar with. I've also tried meditation, but couldn't stay consistent with it. I know some people swear by CBT, thinking of trying it out next.
Ukranians are adults who can make their own decisions too.
Earlier today Maryana Bezuglaya, a deputy of Ukrainian parliament, ran some polls on her facebook.
"Only for men now. In order not to be mobilized, am I ready to renounce Ukrainian citizenship?"
Results (in progress): 74% yes / 26% no
"The survey is only for women. Would I be ready to become a military account with the possibility of mobilization to rear and defense enterprises (combat positions optional) if it leads to demobilization of those who serve 24 months?"
Results (in progress): 21% yes / 79% no
"Only for women. Am I ready to become a military account with the possibility of mobilization to rear positions and defense enterprises (combat positions only optional anyway) if it opens borders to men?"
Results (in progress): 15% yes / 85% no
"Only for women. In order not to be mobilized to rear positions and to defense enterprises (combatant positions only optional) am I ready to renounce citizenship?"
Results (in progress): 65% yes / 35% no
Yes, facebook polls is not the best source of polling due to possibility of brigading (which definitely happened - poll was posted in anti-conscription telegram group, where I found it). But the fact that a deputy is having this discourse, which is something I wouldn't imagine a year ago, on her public page is indicative enough of the public's concerns and grievances.
And the 'Ukrainian adults' you're speaking of don't have many options to 'make their own decisions'. If one doesn't want to get conscripted, here are his options: illegally crossing the border, while running the risk of getting spotted by a border patrol drone (oh by the way, they are planning to make a 5km no go zone near the border, I wonder why), paying a bribe to a medical professional/conscription officer/border guard (at the start of the war could get away with $2k for a volunteer pass that would allow you to leave the country easily, but now that amount could maybe get you a delay from conscription aka 'the conscription officer will close his eyes while you leave the building'-style, rates for better options now start at $5k), or have his wife/mother/sister do chores for him while he doesn't leave his living space, although that may soon not be an option since a few regions in Ukraine have announced plans for allowing conscription officers to go door to door to looks for refuseniks.
One of the things about the war I've been thinking about lately is how hard it has been to predict what's going to happen next
Only reason for this is how hard it's been to gather real data from the piles of propaganda that's coming from each side, although Ukrainian side has been more perverse with this. Even well respected sources that should be highly analytical seemed to have drank the koolaid.
For the start of the invasion, I think the reason I got it wrong (I thought that Russia would not invade Ukraine, but would officially take the separatist regions) was because of low number of troops that were prepared for the invasion. The Guardian reported 190k troops, which is comically low for any serious invasion of such a large country like Ukraine. Hell, it may not even be enough to take over a city like Kiev with so few troops given that defenders put up a real fight. Some estimates put the total number of troops fighting for Russia at the very start at approx. 250k, that's including the separatist regions that conducted a pretty harsh mobilization a week prior.
Then, I expected Ukraine to have some success simply because of the manpower advantage, but I had no clue how that success would materialize so I didn't make any predictions on that. Ukraine had roughly 250k active military personnel at the start of the war and a robust reservists and territorial defense systems that could mobilize quickly since they've had 'ATO' (anti terrorist operation) since 2014.
For the counteroffensive, I admit that I got completely psyoped by the pro-Ukraine 'experts' and journos. I bought into the western weapons wunderwaffe thesis and that Russian mobilized troops would not have enough experience to withstand the push of well trained and well equipped Ukrainians. I also thought that Russia blundered by wasting their time with Bakhmut, which I assumed lost them a sizeable chunk of wagner reserves that could've been used for strengthening up defense. I thought that volunteer numbers coming out of Russia were completely made up (part of that is because anecdotal evidence - I have Russian friends that still live in Russia and out of my whole circle not one had a close relative or friend that has been mobilized or has volunteered, the result that most likely occurred because of selection bias), making the frontline understaffed on the Russian side once again. The Russian sources I read supported my thoughts - they were heavy in doom and gloom about how they are outnumbered and outgunned, how the defensive line they are building is nothing but a money laundering grift for the big wigs (which given the track record for Russian big wigs sounds pretty true). I expected a Kherson style pace where there's small progress here and there until Russia has to flee to more advantageous line of defense. And well, that clearly didn't happen.
My current prediction is that there won't be an official ceasefire in 2024 because:
-
I believe the main goal for Russia is Ukraine not 'joining' NATO. 'Joining' is in quotes because I think even more cooperation between Ukraine and NATO without the former officially joining would be considered a threat. And all the talk from pro-ceasefire Ukrainian side right now is about 'exchanging' the lost land for quick NATO accession. I think Russia would not agree to that, and if I'm right then continuing the fight is considered more beneficial by the Russian regime
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If Ukraine gets funding from it's allies for 2024, no ceasefire is also a more beneficial position for Zelensky because the war keeps the public from confronting the government about the undemocratic draconian measures that have been bestowed upon them. There's no data on this, but anecdotal evidence suggests that a lot of men are going to leave the country the moment they have an ability to do so. The current street price for a get-out-of-Ukraine-as-a-healthy-male card is anywhere between $5k to $12k, a sum many cannot afford. Leaving the border closed after the war is over or on hold would not only raise eyebrows in the West for being undemocratic (how significant this is is debatable, but would definitely not score any democracy PR points for Ukraine) but also anger own constituents. EDIT: not to mention the fact that I believe Zelensky has no chance of winning post war elections. All the losses, corruption, and so on will be pinned on him, so unless he pulls a Putin and elects himself in post war elections, keeping the war going and postponing election is the move for him if he wishes to keep his power (and based on his actions he does wish so)
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If Ukraine doesn't get funding (my prediction is it will, maybe just enough to keep in the fight), there's no reason for Russia to agree to a ceasefire. Ukraine has nothing without funding from US, I don't believe EU is willing/able to provide enough for the war.
So I think Ukraine will get funded, the fight will continue into 2024 and probably 2025 with very slow net Russian advances. The wildcard event that I think is possible but highly unlikely is regime change in Ukraine to a pro-Russian (it wouldn't be exactly puppet style pro-Russian, it would probably be more like a regime that's more accepting of negotiations on Russian terms, read Arestovych's recent takes) regime. I put odds of this happening at 3-5% and increasing as war drags on
ser
1yr ago
Given that purpose of NATO was to counter Russia
The original purpose of NATO was to counter USSR, not Russia. There was no country called 'Russia' in 1949 when it was created.
Fortunately it has not happened.
Ukraine is going to be an economic and demographic shithole after this is over and the EU is stuck being dependent on US for at least the next half a century. Is that the price worth paying for not accepting Russia into NATO and acknowledging its interests? Why am I even asking, for a pole it for sure is.
Have you read source that you provided? This is untrue claim and contradicted by your own source.
I have. Have you? Here's words directly from horse's mouth.
Putin told Frost he would not rule out joining Nato “if and when Russia’s views are taken into account as those of an equal partner”.
ser
1yr ago
Russia is a special snowflake compared to all the countries that joined around that time
ser
1yr ago
I've got some bad news for you, we're already living in a world like that. Always have
ser
1yr ago
Why be fearful? What exactly is the fear?
A military alliance set up specifically to contrast you comes closer and closer to your borders while taking over your sphere of influence and completely ignoring your voicing of concerns. Would US be ok with Mexico or Canada seeking closer military ties with China? Hell, let's not even go that far. What if China starts forming military partnerships with SK or Japan, how would US react? You know the answer.
If you are fearful, how does invading Ukraine help?
It doesn't. I have multiple theories why that happened, but I'm too lazy to write out a full thesis. In short: It was getting clear Ukraine is not gonna budge on staying neutral (not abiding by Minsk agreements, pro-peace politicians in Ukraine being pressured by pro-war factions to not back down, US getting more involved into Donbas conflict as time went on), so it was a now or never situation for Putin if he wanted to hold any influence over countries around Russia's borders. I doubt the war we have now was planned - analysts, even Western ones, didn't predict Ukraine would hold off that long. Also think Putin didn't expect EU to get as involved as it did. US's involvement was expected, but it wouldn't be able to do much if Germany or France lobbied against involvement within EU.
ser
1yr ago
I just find it hard to take fear over self preservation seriously when the guy has a fleet of nuclear armed submarines.
Would the US of A get uneasy if China starts forming military partnerships with Mexico or Canada?
In my personal opinion, I don't think Putin was worried about NATO invasion. But being rejected a seat at the table and not having your concerns heard time and time again would probably induce some paranoia.
But Russia bears responsibility in the moral sense because resolving to control your neighbors trade policies when you have less GDP than Brazil or Italy means you're going to have to resort to force or skullduggery because you can't compete economically.
Don't think morals and world politics fit together. Overall, this is a correct statement. Not applicable to Ukraine though. In 2013, the EU deal Ukraine was offered (and which was rightfully rejected) was downright disrespectful. Russia's terms included trade agreements and cold hard cash amounts Ukraine couldn't even think of getting from EU at the time. So the carrot attempts were attempted before the stick came out. Didn't prevent Maidan from happening though.
ser
1yr ago
They weren’t happy with Ukraine becoming a full western member and their ego wanted Ukraine to be their junior partner.
That's true. The fear may not be about NATO attacking Russia's land, but it's about attacking its sphere of influence. Is Russia entitled to the sphere of influence it inherited from USSR? We're finding it out now.
ser
1yr ago
Disagree Russia had any strategic fear of NATO.
I find it really curious how it's hard for you to believe this rather than Putin being afraid that his kids will turn gay and do the nae nae on tiktok (aka the culture war).
The Russian ruling class are made of westophiles. All of them own(ed) properties in the West. They send(t) their kids to study at Western institutions. Their wives start(ed) designer brands to try to buy their way into Paris fashion week, and host(ed) museum installations to get clout. They enjoy(ed) traveling to Davos on their private jet every year to mingle with all the western thought leaders.
All the cultural anti-west rhetoric is just for show. The culture was already getting watered down by the western influence to the point where American pop/hip hop future stars would cultivate cult-like fanbases in Russia early on in their careers before getting any recognition on their own turf.
Putin and everyone around him don't give a fuck about the culture war. Putin loved the west. Hell, he even idolized Bush Jr. in 2003.
NT: How is Putin coming in in 2003?
Putin appears to be maneuvering. He is now dependent on his inner circle and does not trust them. Yes, an artist is born. There was also such a factor as the idolizing of U.S. President Bush Jr. One of the elements that swept Putin into the empire was the fact that he found himself in the club of world leaders. And which ones! Chirac, Tony Blair, Schroeder, Bush. That was a stronger team than the ones we have today. Although there was also a downward trend in that level. Source - Gleb Pavlovskiy, advisor to Putin from 1996 to 2011
Putin desperately wanted 'in'. He wanted Russia to be accepted into 'the West' (or I should say NATO). Not as another vassal, but as a peer (Source).
So here's my interpretation of Putin's POV. Institutions that were created solely to contrast USSR militarily don't disappear after USSR's collapse. They don't want to include you as a peer. They also start expanding. Does that justify being fearful about it? You tell me
ser
1yr ago
"Stole client funds" appears to have solidified as a meme much the same way "crossed state lines" had in the Rittenhouse case.
He legit stole client's funds though. They were supposed to be idle just sitting in cold storage. Instead the guy directly routed them to Alameda (For FTX US, the bank account that you would deposit your money to is Alameda's) and gambled with them by placing huge directional bets. And that's ignoring all the real estate and donations that he has done that also came from these funds too.
ser
1yr ago
I say take Kaliningrad.
I sincerely hope that people that say things like this are gonna be the first ones to sign up for occupying the trenches. Unlikely though
ser
1yr ago
Elon said that paid accounts will get priority in replies. So, these spam messages will still be there, just at the bottom of the thread, which lowers engagement. Currently, if you check replies under tweets of some prominent figures, in the first few mins after the tweet all replies are bots
In contrast to the belief that this is bad for scammers and spammers, I think it's the opposite.
You may be right in that it may not fully stop spammers, but I would argue it would definitely reduce how many there are. There's different types of twitter scams, but the most annoying and most prominent one is when a bad actor spams either replies of tweets of prominent people/tags pre selected accounts in their own tweets. This type of spam requires thousands of accounts per round because twitter actually locks such accounts pretty quickly if you abuse it, so they usually make a dozen tweets per account and then move to the next account. So if someone were to pay $8 per account for such campaign, that would be $8000 per 1000 accounts. Even though it could be profitable to pay this much, that's a much more expensive start up cost for these spammers. Currently, one new twitter account can be bought for around $0.25 and software to spam costs anywhere from a few hundred for shitty ones and thousand for good ones. So that raises startup costs from a few hundred bucks to thousands. And if scammers were to actually pay this much, this is a win for twitter because they would be getting a lot of money from these spammers.
I can recommend you an interesting pub. It's cowboy themed, ran by an old Japanese gentleman that's obsessed with country music. It's tiny, seats like 5 people at once, so it's likely it will be just the 2 of you + the owner there, but it's worth it if you wanna sing some country songs and hear about owner's country music lore (went to America, was in a band, etc.). Name is 'PINE FIELD', address: 3-2, yotsua, shinjuku-ku, Tokyo. Owner's name is SunShine Matsuno.
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