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birb_cromble  2d ago (text post)   644 thread views

Weekly Finance Thread - 2026-08-08

A weekly thread to discuss financial matters - from personal all the way up to global.

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I’m up about $800 on my NFLX bet. Nothing to write home about, but maybe I’ll write about it in this thread.

My confidence has not yet been vindicated (I don’t plan to exit until 2028), but to extremely briefly explain my gut feeling: I doubted Netflix the first time it puked in 2022. Its subscriber growth slowed, and competition was closing in from all sides (remember CNN+?). I thought maybe it’s the end of an era. Since then, Netflix has remained profitable, and other streamers learned that it’s a tough business. Netflix also realizes that live sports have a future in internet streaming.

So, seeing the price back at levels observed in 2021, I don’t expect investors to allow the price back into its 2022 bear market. Neither do I expect them to replicate their 2023-2025 performance. However, if it at least rhymes I should do okay.

I don’t plan to exit until 2028

What happens in 2028?

The contracts expire, lol.

It's a synthetic long. I paid $465 net premium to simulate owning 100 shares of Netflix (the entire downside and upside).

At that point, why not just buy the stock?

I ain't got the cash. 😬

The 100 shares would have been somewhere around $7,000. Most is tied up in other positions (predominantly VTI), and what little cash I do have I need in case I get assigned on any of the other options I've sold. I only need the full $7,000 if Netflix goes to literal zero (0) dollars. So I'm happy telling my broker I'll get the money to them if Netflix actually falls that much.

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