OracleOutlook
🇺🇸 Fiat justitia ruat caelum
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User ID: 359
OracleOutlook
🇺🇸 Fiat justitia ruat caelum
21hr ago
Americans just find Europeans annoying.
Except the data showed the opposite effect. Americans think Europeans are more capable than Europeans believe themselves to be.
Or maybe that's the crux, Americans think, "Europe is about the same size as the US when considered together, they coordinate together through this EU thing. Even working individually, European nations conquered half the world in the recent past. Europe is capable of doing more, but they are not for some reason." Which is frustrating to Americans.
Meanwhile, Europeans think, "America is so big and we're so little, they are so rich and we're so poor, their military so dominating and ours so stagnating. We fall over at the smallest breeze and America blowhards keep puffing."
OracleOutlook
🇺🇸 Fiat justitia ruat caelum
1d ago
I think we need to keep in mind the specific strategic goals Rubio laid out at the beginning and has been sticking two whenever he gives a speech:
- Destroy their weapons factories
- Destroy their navy
- Destroy their air force
- Destroy their chances of ever having a nuclear weapon
We've done the middle two very comprehensively. We're doing the first pretty thoroughly. The last one is hard to define a victory condition of, how do you destroy a "chance?" But the US can say, 3/4 isn't that bad, and take that as a win given the primary goals the leadership has been sticking to this whole time.
OracleOutlook
🇺🇸 Fiat justitia ruat caelum
1d ago
I have never watched Mad Men, but there is this meme where two men are in an elevator. The first says, "I feel bad for you." The second says, "I don't think about you at all."
If you had two stickers, one labeled US and one UK/EU, which sticker would you put on the first man, and which on the second?
On the first thought, maybe you'd put the US sticker on the guy who says, "I don't think about you at all." Because after all, the US is a superpower that just Leeroy Jenkins its way through foreign affairs and seems to have grown increasingly disinterested in what Europeans have to say about it.
When people are polled, however, something interesting emerges: https://ecfr.eu/publication/how-trump-is-making-china-great-again-and-what-it-means-for-europe/
Here is one poll question: Generally speaking, thinking about the US, which of the following best reflects your view on what they are to your country?
In Switzerland, 21% of people view the US as "An adversary—with which we are in conflict" compared to just 8% as, "An ally—that shares our interests and values." They seem to be on the extreme for Europe. The UK seems to be on the other (European) extreme: 25% view the US as "An ally—that shares our interests and values." The EU10 is in the middle at 16% seeing the US as an ally.
The reverse was polled to Americans: Generally speaking, thinking about the EU which of the following best reflects your view on who they are to your country?
The total for the US was 40% who would agree that the EU is "An ally—that shares our interests and values." This percentage is higher in Harris voters than Trump voters, but importantly, Trump voters were still at 30%, which is higher than even the UK's rosy view of the US compared to the rest of Europe.
Another interesting question is: Which of the following best reflects your view on the EU's global standing?
46% of Americans said, "The EU is a power that can deal on equal terms with global powers, such as the US or China." Comparatively, EU10, Switzerland, and UK were all in the 30s of percentage points. There seems to be a gap between how important/capable the US thinks Europe is compared to Europe's self-perceptions.
The pattern emerges that people in the US are more likely to think that the people of Europe are both capable and share our interests and values, while the people of Europe disagree. I don't know who is right, but I think it is important for both groups to be aware of this emerging dynamic.
OracleOutlook
🇺🇸 Fiat justitia ruat caelum
2d ago
Can you give an example of that?
In 2012, President Barack Obama stated that the use of chemical weapons by the Syrian government would be a "red line" that would make us likely to intervene militarily. A major sarin gas attack in Ghouta happened August 2013. President Obama pivoted to a diplomatic deal brokered by Russia. Hooray, we can't possibly have made the Europeans mad by not doing something!
However, you'd be surprised. France was particularly incensed. President Hollande had already authorized French jets to prepare for takeoff, expecting a coordinated strike with the U.S. When the US pulled back at the last minute, French officials felt humiliated and "left in the lurch." Foreign Minister Fabius later remarked, "We regret it because we think it would have changed many things," and suggested that this perceived American weakness emboldened Russia's later annexation of Crimea.
British PM Cameron remained frustrated that the world's response was being "contracted out" to a Russian veto at the UN. He argued that the failure to act would damage the credibility of international prohibitions on chemical weapons.
Germany was happy, so I guess we can make the Germans happy if we just stayed in our borders.
This event is often cited by European leaders as the moment they realized they could not always rely on U.S. security guarantees, fueling the modern push for European "strategic autonomy." Which, to be honest, more power to them.
But then if you look at the parallels to the current situation, it's striking. Trump gives a red line, "Don't harm protestors." Iran kills them by the thousands. This time, we act. Now like before there is wailing and gnashing of teeth.
OracleOutlook
🇺🇸 Fiat justitia ruat caelum
2d ago
Iran blockading the Strait of Hormuz is not rationally ensuring their survival. It makes regime change more pressing. It is confirmation that they are indeed lead by a doomsday death cult, justifying the US treating them like that.
I'm tired of the US (or I guess Israel) being treated like the only country that has any agency in the world. We do something, it's our fault. We don't do something, it's our fault. Our enemies do something, it's our fault. If we didn't attack Iran and they went on a nuclear rampage in 10 years, it would be our fault. What does Europe even want from us? Why should we keep trying to seek their approval when it's just impossible to get? If we acted like Europe we'd all be dead or Soviets. Don't they want us to act differently? Don't they want us to be the Yang to their Yin? And if not, I think we just need to stop caring about what Europe wants at all.
OracleOutlook
🇺🇸 Fiat justitia ruat caelum
2d ago
I don't think of myself as MAGA.
In 2008 Greenland held a referendum on self-governance, which Denmark agreed to honor. A 2009 law guaranteed Greenland the right to leave altogether, if they so chose, and in fact that's the direction Greenland is currently headed in. Greenland's governance has been up in the air as a potential opportunity for almost two decades now. It doesn't seem entirely contrary to Greenland or Denmark's preferences for the US to turn Greenland into a US protectorate. At least, up until the wrong person started trying to talk about it openly.
Consider that us approaching Denmark instead of going straight to Greenland itself was a sign of respect, which was completely misinterpreted.
OracleOutlook
🇺🇸 Fiat justitia ruat caelum
2d ago
Danes already have about 150 permanent personnel in Greenland. That would have served as a tripwire force by itself. Adding more, and making a big show of it, but not enough to actually fight back, was manifestly ridiculous.
OracleOutlook
🇺🇸 Fiat justitia ruat caelum
2d ago
Danes already have about 150 permanent personnel in Greenland. That would have served as a tripwire force by itself. Adding more, and making a big show of it, but not enough to actually fight back, was manifestly ridiculous.
OracleOutlook
🇺🇸 Fiat justitia ruat caelum
2d ago
Meanwhile you've killed scores of civilians, support displacement of millions, bomb population centers with impunity, and your president is threatening to escalate to committing large scale war crimes with childlike glee, as a Tough Negotiation tactic that he finds very clever. Let me cite it in full:
Proactively provide evidence in proportion to how partisan and inflammatory your claim might be. By scores do you mean dozens? We have certainly killed fewer than the Iranians own government did a couple months back. Most Iranians are not displaced. Most homes are in tact. The Iranians I see who can still get the occasional internet access say that they aren't afraid of the bombs, they're afraid of the bombs stopping because that means the war is over and the IRCG is still in charge.
Targeting mixed-use infrastructure is not actually a war crime and there are ways to target infrastructure without permanently destroying it. Trump might actually be legitimately senile and I hope he gets replaced soon, but the military is still run by competent good people. Don't pay any attention to anything on Truth Social ever and you'll probably have a clearer view of world events.
OracleOutlook
🇺🇸 Fiat justitia ruat caelum
2d ago
The problem isn't interdependence, but interdependence is going out on a limb. We are all stronger for it, but it makes us vulnerable as well. Europe ignored those vulnerabilities and didn't care to protect against attacks to the supply chain. The US at least has a Navy protecting commerce around the world.
OracleOutlook
🇺🇸 Fiat justitia ruat caelum
2d ago
Iran retaliated in the most predictable manner, indeed the manner that's been predicted for decades.
You mean, they retaliated with war crimes. And there's just no desire from the rest of the world to punish them for it. Ok then, enjoy the world you're making.
OracleOutlook
🇺🇸 Fiat justitia ruat caelum
2d ago
I thought the Greenland thing was a sign Vance should take over but in the end it was bluster. I'm not lying that the European response was literally more insane than the actions I took to be the death rattle of a decaying mind.
OracleOutlook
🇺🇸 Fiat justitia ruat caelum
2d ago
Yeah, the US should not take any territory by force outside of a just war situation.
Economic levers are more of a gray area. Just saying, "hey I'd buy this land from you," is an economic lever. Tariffs are getting a bad rap but weren't all that weird too long ago. Denmark doesn't technically have any right to sell things to Americans, though I would like them to be able to do so. I think tariffing Denmark would be imprudent but not strictly immoral if the President had that power reserved to him. (He does not, at least not to the extent he has been trying to use them.)
If China submitted an offer to buy California I think the same Americans who supported buying Greenland would consider it, especially if there was a way to drag it closer to the Chinese mainland. (Maybe the debt crisis will be resolved that way.) Borders are not eternal. I'm surprised Denmark didn't even consider the offer, or what they could get for their far off inhospitable territory. I would be curious to know what their price is.
No, there's relatively little chance he's going to do it, and nothing you could do if he did.
That's a bizarre attitude to an American, because obviously there is something you could do - you could shoot the police officer if he started to make good on his joke. To you that might not seem obvious, but it's obvious to an American that this option is on the table, and all that is left is how to best explain the situation to 12 peers.
There is a huge difference between Americans and Europeans and this is at the heart of it. It's not just "Us/them." There is a different attitude towards force and I don't know how that difference developed because at one point I don't think we were that different.
I note that even here, "Lol, it's only a joke, calm down," is immediately followed by, "would have been a good idea though..."
I don't think it would be a good idea to take Greenland by force. I think it would be great if we could buy it from Denmark.
OracleOutlook
🇺🇸 Fiat justitia ruat caelum
2d ago
Yeah the Greenland thing is also a great example of Europe going crazy.
Trump does something great for Venezuela, removing their criminal dictator and his foreign security, and a reporter asks if he is going to take Greenland, dredging up an old offhand comment He says it's not off the table, because for a negotiator nothing is ever off the table. Suddenly a huge freakout. America bought Louisiana off the French and it's a sign of our eternal love for each other. America says, half-seriously, "Hey Denmark, what would you demand in exchange for Greenland?" and the world loses it's mind.
And it's stupid. Europe sends dozens of guys to Greenland to protect it? If protecting Greenland was actually the goal there that is a pathetic show of force. But even Europe could probably dredge up more guys. So what was the point there? It's the Greta Thunberg of military actions. It's gluing yourself to a painting. You know America's not going to attack. Some Americans tried to explain why it's in the global interest to sell Greenland to America but the overreaction prevented any kind of rational conversation about this.
But all the people saying that America doesn't need Greenland because we'd be allowed to build and use any military base we wanted there anyways... they have been proved obviously wrong over the past month. And I was one of them.
OracleOutlook
🇺🇸 Fiat justitia ruat caelum
2d ago
Huh, I read it "Would absolutely blame the American response [on China]" with "American response" as the object of the sentence. Sorry.
As an American citizen I would totally blame America instead of China.
OracleOutlook
🇺🇸 Fiat justitia ruat caelum
2d ago
It's so weird then that they didn't do that until you bombed them.
It's so weird America didn't block the Panama canal before China bombed us! But you rightfully recognize that it would be our fault if we did.
OracleOutlook
🇺🇸 Fiat justitia ruat caelum
2d ago
the people who make the stuff my civilisation needs to stay alive.
The point is you created a civilization that needs these things to stay alive, created this reliance and dependency, without putting in any effort to ensure its protection. The default human condition is lack. The default is for things to fall apart if they are not maintained.
If the response to that situation is to kiss up to Iran, then that is at least a rational response. If the response was to kiss up to the US to encourage us to protect your boats, that would be preferred. If the response was to come in with a super-awesome EU Fleet of anti-mine drones and clear the strait yourselves, that would be amazing.
But the situation you are in is that you have leaders decrying the US, who have no power of their own to fix the mess, but recognize the hazard of showing your belly to Iran. They can't have all three.
Now because I can tell it's sounding harsh, I really like Europe. In some part of my heart I view Europe as a museum. A precious, amazing museum. To the extent that Europe deviates from that perception, it creates dissonance. The rational part of my mind recognizes that Europe is not a museum, it is a whole continent of people who are obviously changing and doing commerce and living lives. But there is some level where I expect Paris, London, Berlin, Vienna to be static, for the French to be stereotypical, for the Italian coffee to be great. This is my own personal failing.
Europe has a privileged position in America. You're our foil. We didn't create a government in opposition to Chinese governance, or Ottoman governance. We were Europeans trying to improve upon European political theory. We think we succeeded, or at least wound up with something better than what was there in the 18th century.
But man, the World Wars followed by the Cold War did something to you guys and not all of it was good. It's a continent with self-righteous PTSD. I don't view Europe as "Just like America, but better in every way!" the way some Americans and Europeans do.
But then when I talk to Europeans for work, I often slip into a, "I"m trying to impress you guys because I'm not like other Americans! I'm cultured enough to realize that you think that my willingness to get up at 5 AM to talk to you guys as a form of unpaid overtime is ridiculous, so I will poke fun at my willing self-enslavement to my boss." I'm totally the younger sibling with something to prove, "Look, Ma! Be proud of me!"
My father was born on a US Airbase in West Germany. I hold our historical partnership in high regard and would find it worthwhile to give my life for you. I don't actually believe Europe would fight for the US if we were attacked directly, especially if someone with (R) next to their name was president at the time. I know you guys pulled through after 9/11 but I think that soured Europe on the concept as well.
OracleOutlook
🇺🇸 Fiat justitia ruat caelum
2d ago
I'm confused at the selection. Personally I find Vonnegut easy reads, and though I don't agree with him in the slightest about almost anything, I appreciate the propositions his novels create and the challenge they pose to my worldview.
Meanwhile Infinite Jest is... you have to have a motivation to read it because the book doesn't create the motivation to read the next page by itself. At least that's my experience. I like shorter essays by the author but Infinite Jest itself is a thing in itself. Like House of Leaves. What are you reading it for? To be one of those who read it.
OracleOutlook
🇺🇸 Fiat justitia ruat caelum
2d ago
But Iran's wrecking your stuff. The US isn't mining the strait, Iran is. It turns out Iran thinks you're their enemy too!
If China bombed Pearl Harbor, and in response the US bombed the merchant ships of every nation in the Pacific regardless of where they were going or who they were selling to, you would say, "The US is not our friends here. The US is our enemy now." And act accordingly. You wouldn't blame China for the US's actions, especially if they had a half-decent reason to bomb Pearl Harbor (say we were in a fight over Taiwan or take-your-pick.)
Iran is telling you , "I am your enemy! I will do whatever is in my power to cause you pain!"
Europe's response is, "America, control Iran better!" When the response should be, "Oh geez, these Iran fellas are harming our interests. I should protect our national interests better."
America isn't going to keep the seas safe on its own. Other countries that like having a global ship trade need to step up and protect their interests on the waters.
Everything Konrad publishes sounds like AI. Even things that I'm 100% certain cannot be AI, like this article.
Edit: or this one published before Generative AI: https://gcaptain.com/what-the-sea-has-taught-me-about-covid-19/
Though I would not be surprised in the least if he writes a few paragraphs and asks AI to expand it and make it snappy.
OracleOutlook
🇺🇸 Fiat justitia ruat caelum
2d ago
The article itself says, "The strongest version of this thesis is not “Trump is playing 4D chess.” It is that the administration holds more options than anyone realizes, and the insurance mechanism, not the Navy, is the real lever of power."
OracleOutlook
🇺🇸 Fiat justitia ruat caelum
3d ago
Yeah, Laura's aunt Eliza tells a story at Christmas:
Eliza was walking to the spring to get a pail of water. Her dog was with her and started growling and pulling on her skirt with his teeth when she got near the path. He tore her skirt and snarled. Frightened, Eliza ran back home and closed the door to her house, leaving the dog outside. All day she and her three young children were stuck inside, unable to leave the house. Every time they tried to open the door, the dog snarled at them. They had no water the whole day and were unable to cook or drink anything. In the afternoon the dog calmed down and acted like nothing happened. They walked to the spring together and in the ground Eliza saw large panther tracks.
The books are great because Laura realized that her life exemplified a lot of people's experiences, but also that the past was vanishing and very few in the future would understand what it was like. She's not the best writer, but her books have stayed in print for a good reason.
OracleOutlook
🇺🇸 Fiat justitia ruat caelum
3d ago
I'm homeschooling my 2nd grade daughter this year due to her autism not being accommodated in the classroom in 1st grade.
Naturally a lot of curriculum is "conservative" and describes itself as "classical." One thing I notice is the emphasis on how little people in the past had. The capstone book of the year is "Little House in the Big Woods," which is basically a woman's memoirs of how she had to live as a little girl on a homestead where all the food had to be made, water brought in from far away every day, wild animals to contend with, etc. Before that was "The Courage of Sarah Noble," a story about a little girl who traveled with her father to cook for him while he build a house by hand on new land they bought from Indians.
Lots of the short stories cover living off the land, working hard, making gifts instead of buying them, being content with little.
If I compare myself with my parents I feel impoverished, but compared to my grandparents I'm ahead and compared to my great-grandparents I might as well be royalty.
There is a lot wrong with modernity but I don't have to haul water on a daily basis or make my own soap and that means I'm better off than so many people, both in the past and now.
I have the sense that conservatives are more aware of this than others (both liberals and moderates) though I don't have hard data.
If I recall correctly, carriers typically dock for maintenance every six months, this one's been adventuring for a year now.
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