@OracleOutlook's banner p

OracleOutlook

Fiat justitia ruat caelum

2 followers   follows 2 users  
joined 2022 September 05 01:56:25 UTC 

				
User ID: 359


				
				
				

			

		

	














	


		


			



	

		

			

			

				

					

						

							
						

						

							
							

								
OracleOutlook


								

								

								
								
								

								
							
					
 
				


				
Fiat justitia ruat caelum

				
				
				

				

					2 followers  

					follows 2 users  

					joined 2022 September 05 01:56:25 UTC
				


				
					

					
No bio...

				

				

				

				

				

					

					

					
					
					

					
User ID: 359


					
					
					
				

			


					

						
					



		

	

 











			
			

			
			

			




	


		

			
‎

			

				
				

					Hour
					Day
					Week
					Month
					Year
					
				

			


			
‎

			

	
	

	 Hot Bump Top Bottom Old Controversial Comments
	



		

	






	

		
		

		
		
	

	

  







		

			
			
				Wellness Wednesday for January 31, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I tried working 6 hour days once.  The problem is that businesses are bad at dividing how much work to give someone.


I'm responsible for a whole domain.  Sometimes it might take 30 hours one week to respond to things in a timely fashion, produce everything that needs to be produced, attend the meetings, etc.  Sometimes it take 60 hours.  I could tell work, "I'm only working 30 hours, dock my pay accordingly," but I would still be responsible for the same amount of work, I'll just fall behind faster.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Wellness Wednesday for January 31, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
What platform do you use to freelance?


For Au Pair: A shared bathroom is fine.  Currently costs are about 35k a year, with about 10k given to the agency, 15k to the Au Pair directly (The minimum is around 10k), and 10k from education (there is a mandatory stipend for them to attend schoool,) increased utilities, food, toiletries, etc.  If your kids are older and in school, I think paying the minimum works fine.  Some people have Au Pairs drive their school-aged kids to and from school and to extra curriculars.


However, we expect the costs to double if the state department rules go into affect.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Wellness Wednesday for January 31, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
We would need to turn in logs to the regional coordinator.  The Au Pair system in the US works through Agencies, you cannot get an Au Pair Visa without going through an Agency.  That Agency will need to hire extra people to maintain the level of paperwork that will be required of them.  Right now we pay our Agency 10k a year to handle the current paperwork to get the Visa, get the Au Pair in country, work with Embassies, and do the legally required checking up on the Au Pair (she meets with our Area Coordinator once a month in person.)  It's expected that the cost of the program might double or triple with the changes.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Wellness Wednesday for January 31, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I'm currently a Project Manager.  There are freelance opportunities, but I'm a little hesitant to go that route because I don't want to be in front of a screen while taking care of my kids, I want to be active with them.  I crochet while they play sometimes, and they don't mind at all.  I think I could manage something like one of these a day without the kids interfering.


If I get on a computer, suddenly all the kids want to sit next to me and watch, talk, and touch things, and I can't PM at the same time.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Wellness Wednesday for January 31, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I've mentioned on here a few times that our family has an Au Pair and I work from home most days.  This happy arrangement is going to come to an end and I'm of mixed feelings.


First, for those who don't know, there is a program in the State Department that is designed to connect families with young women across the world who would be interested in taking care of children in exchange for living in America for a year.  The host family has to provide a separate room and pay a weekly stipend.  It's a "cultural program."  As part of it they are supposed to take a couple college courses every year.  There is a lot of abuse, but I pay my Au Pair more than the minimum, don't ask her to do more than just keep the kids alive, and buy her whatever she asks for that seems reasonable.


When interviewing Au Pairs (it's a lot like an online dating service, with profile pages and matches) I always asked, "What are you hoping to get out of becoming an Au Pair?  What benefit are you looking for?"  The answer was almost always, "More experience speaking English."  This seems reasonable, as a good American accent probably gives people a huge advantage in business.


Anyways, the State Department is reviewing the Au Pair program, and has proposed a series of rules that will break it for most families.  I don't want to count every toothbrush I buy her, or make sure that she only eats $10.88 worth of food every day.  Regardless of what is financially feasible, I'm not going to do it.  There's just no way to live with someone in your house, monitor them to this extent, and then still trust them with your kids.


But then the question turns to, "Who is going to watch my kids?"  I have four kids, ranging from 10 months to 6 years.  There is a preschool we send one child to for 1/2 day socialization, and she likes it well enough.  I could send the others to their Summer Camp.  But the 10 month old would be too young, and daycare for a 1 year old is already booked up for a year.


Then there's the reality that I'm not giving my kids the attention I want to.  Work takes over too much.  I might technically be off work at 4:30, but someone puts a meeting on my calendar at 5, or I really need to finish these three five emails, and before I know it it's Dinner Time.  I have all these worksheets I want to do with my two oldest and practice penmanship (which they really struggle with.) I want to take my kids outside to play.  I want to go for walks.  But I also want to be held in esteem at work.  As long as work is there, I will put off my kids because kids can wait but work can't.  But that is a LIE.  Kids grow up, and toil is forever.


I don't want to send them off to a church preschool from 7 to 5, and then pick them up, feed them dinner, do homework, and kiss them good night.  That's not how I was raised.  That's not what I want for my family.


So I will likely become a stay at home Mom, once my Au Pair's contract ends.  I'm looking forward to taking my kids to parks, splash pads, libraries, festivals, and other public areas around my city.  My city is actually really family friendly.  I know it is hard work.  I took half a year off work when I had my second child.  I know it can be isolating.  But I have the example of my mother, who make lots of mom friends and seemed to have a blast when my siblings and I were young.  Thinking about  making this change fills me with excitement and hope.


The two downsides - and they are huge - is money and the Future.  Money is easy enough to explain - we will have less of it.  My husband makes enough for us to live on, if we had no debt we would have a good amount left over after all the mandatory bills (food, mortgage, utilities, etc.) Unfortunately, we have debt.  There are some student loans that are almost paid off and we are in a payment plan with the children's hospital after three of my children were hospitalized for a cumulative of 27 days, 10 of which were in the ICU.  With this debt, we are still able to make due, and live a good quality of life, but we would need to be careful to limit things like how much meat we buy, how many clothes we get the kids, etc.  Once the debt is paid off in a couple years, it's all fine.  But we will have to live frugally for a couple years, or risk falling into more debt.


The Future one is harder to explain, but I can't stay home with the kids forever.  By the time the youngest is 10, if not sooner, I need to go back into the labor force.   I think that is where my mother messed up.  She put her foot down on her identity as a homemaker, ended up not doing much during the school day, driving us around to sports in the afternoon (until I was able to drive, and then she had even less to do.)  The cognitive decline you see retirees experience, she seemed to get when she was 50.  She kept the public areas of the house clean, cooked dinner (badly), and otherwise watched Masterpiece Theater.  Shortly after I graduated college, my parents divorced.  Now she is a real estate agent with no sales and sometimes manages to convince her friends to pay above market rates to clean their house.


I see a few possibilities.  I have a Master's degree, and can probably get a certification and find work as a school teacher once the children are in school.  I don't have any particular interest in this.  I think of schools as enemy territory, so to speak.  It would be nice if I could instead home school my kids (I'm not going to leap straight into that, but it's a possibility now.)  Maybe I could teach at a Catholic School.  The benefit of being a school teacher is obvious, I would be off work most of the same days that my children would be.


The other idea I'm entertaining is to start my own business.  I've been thinking up a small catalog of things I could crochet. Things that could only be done by hand, look unique, and would take me less than two hours a piece.  I could buy a stamping kit for 1k and sell personalized jewelry.  I could lean into the Mommy space, and sell "calming jars" and other kid trinkets.


The idea would be to do something for a few hours a week, just enough to keep a storefront and a tax ID.  If I actually turn a small profit I can use to buy a zoo membership or something, that would be a bonus.  As the kids get bigger, I can spend more time on it, eventually either actually making it a full time job, or pivoting back into being a wage worker.  It seems like it will be easier for me to get hired if I can say I started a small business, rather than I took time off work to care for small kids.


I'm open to any and all suggestions.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of January 29, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I love America.  I love George Washington.  I love Thomas Jefferson.  I love Betsy Ross.  I love our stupid national anthem with notes that most people can't reach.  I love the Constitution, and the Liberty Bell, and our National Parks.  I love the Bill of Rights, the Declaration of Independence, and the Federalist Papers.  I love our aircraft carriers and our war planes.  I love the Grand Canyon and the Bald Eagle.  I love supermarkets and farmer's markets.  I love our long and fraught journey to secure each citizen the greatest freedoms enjoyed by man on Earth.


I love them in the same way I love my parents, who I didn't choose and aren't necessarily the best, but they raised me as best as they were able.  To say that one country is the same as another to me would be to say that one random couple is the same as my parents to me.


Is this something only people raised in America feel, or does anyone else feel that way about their homeland?


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of January 22, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
In Indiana, marriage is still on the books defined as between an man and a woman and does not recognize same sex marriages from other states, it's just currently superceded by Obergefell.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Wellness Wednesday for January 24, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I'm willing to bet that chart is used to diagnose hoarders, and it gives that much variation to trick people into being more comfortable saying, "I'm a six," because six is towards the middle and there are worse options. My grandparent's house had rooms that were between 5 and 10. My grandmother had Alzheimers and would purchase things for her 'baby' (all her children were grown adults) and stuff them in one of the vacated bedrooms until you couldn't enter the room, then start over again in a different bedroom.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of January 22, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Could be fixed by adding a simple line, "after signature by the President the bill becomes law." or something.


Any of the proposed amendments should be looked over by 10 dozen different lawyers to see what they can munchkin out of it before making it to the floor.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of January 22, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
This series has a list of interesting proposals for amendments that are not policy-based but rather attempt to fix some of the areas where governance has fallen apart. For example:




    

  1. All Bills which raise or appropriate money, or which issue or limit the size of the public debt, or which fix the salaries of Officers of the Government of the United States, shall originate in the House of Representatives, and shall not be altered or amended by the Senate.
    2. 

  2. The Senate shall vote on all such money bills within one year, voting by the Yeas and Nays, and the affirmative vote of a majority of the Senators duly chosen and sworn shall cause the bill to be passed. If, after one year, this vote has not been taken, the House may present the money bill to the President of the United States for signature, in like manner as if it had been passed by the Senate.
    3. 

  3. These provisions may be enforced by judicial proceedings.
    4. 





But even something as anodyne as this would probably become polarized once one group of people took up its cause.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of January 15, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Thank you for the correction, like I said it was a vague memory.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of January 15, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I vaguely remember that he wasn't allowed to talk after Jan 6th.  He lost Twitter, I don't remember any press conferences, there was the impeachment, but I don't think he was permitted to talk to the public or sign anything.


Legally he should have been able to issue pardons up until his last day, that is a power the president has.  But I don't know if he was allowed near a pen.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Small-Scale Question Sunday for January 14, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
He made it clear that useful meant, "measurably impacts my day to day life, all else is mental masturbation."


For example,  most historical details were also considered false, regardless of how sure we are that they really happened.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of January 15, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I think the 'fed' modifier turns it from "honest person encouraging protestors to enter the Capitol (true)" to "dishonest person sets other people up to get arrested."  It's not the working for the government that is defamation, it's the claim that he orchestrated a false flag.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Small-Scale Question Sunday for January 14, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I remember someone made the claim that something was only true to the extent it was useful. To this I replied that some math concepts were discovered long before they were useful in physics, and there are still many math concepts that we don't have an application for yet. Some of these might be applied in the future, but it's not impossible that some math concepts are never useful. Does that make a valid theorem as false as 2+2=fish?


I didn't get a response back but I have wondered since if it changed their mind at all.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Friday Fun Thread for January 12, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
https://thequantuminsider.com/2024/01/04/its-back-researchers-say-theyve-replicated-lk-99-room-temperature-superconductor-experiment/


If I wanted to bet that some variation of (refrigerated-room) temperature Super Conductors will be available in the next ten years, what would I invest in?


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of January 8, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					


I feel like this incident reflects far more poorly on Biden




Exactly.  Anyone at any moment could end up unconscious in an ER or worse.  I really hope that the security of our nation does not rely on a dead person calling in sick.  Either it does, or the Commander in Chief and the Secretary of Defense have no impact on the day to day security of our nation.  Which is worse?


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of January 8, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
It all seems bizarre to me.  Before this incident, I had an idea that if a member of the cabinet or other high-ranking government official was unaccounted for, even for a couple hours, Secret Service would be notifying the President, intelligence agencies would be tasked with tracking them down, and we'd know by the end of the day if they were kidnapped by an adversary, fell into a sink hole, whatever.


I'm not clear yet how this scenario updates my priors.  Could the Defense Secretary have been kidnapped by Russia without anyone knowing?  His top staffers didn't know he was hospitalized until the next day, how did they find out and why didn't they find out sooner?


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of January 8, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
About 57% of highschool students play sports.
https://www.edweek.org/leadership/statistics-on-school-sports-how-many-students-play-sports-which-sports-do-they-play/2021/07


Why do you insist athletes in general are a stastical outlier? I don't think anyone understood you were arguing this because it's really hard to realize someone is arguing that a behavior the majority of people do is an outlier.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of January 1, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I think the problem with the COVID lockdowns is that parents were still working full-time from home while 'caring' for their kids.  I have an Au Pair, so I avoided a lot of the problems, but I have coworkers who were blatantly ignoring their kids.  Many meetings had a 2-3 year old crying in the background.  The parents would yell at the kid, threaten to take away their tablet, etc.  I think even a neglectful daycare with other kids would be a better environment than forcible tablet addiction and a parent ready to explode in anger at every noise.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of January 1, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
You definitely know more on the topic than I do, my background is a class I took on copyright that only tangentially spoke on this.


That said, I think about medical malpractice lawsuits, which are notoriously difficult to win, expensive for everyone, etc.  And yet the tiny amount of medical malpractice lawsuits that go anywhere have had a huge effect on how every doctor and hospital system conducts business.  I guess the main difference is that medical procedures take place in a specific location in the US, and so jurisdiction is simple?


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of January 1, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
Yep.  I sorted into the group where romance was interesting, but sex was pointless and unappealing at our stage of life.  At one point I asked my mother (in the context of abortion), "Why do people have sex if they don't want to have a baby?" and she stuttered, "Some people find it pleasurable."


I was aware of the people who talked about sex while playing Truth or Dare, but I had long ago labeled these people as "not friend material" before I even knew what sex was.  They were the kids who thought Bs were a good grade, or didn't listen to adults when they forbade us from doing things, and being near these kids made me uncomfortable.


I've seen the phrase "time preference" thrown around here, I think it correlates strongly to the two groups.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of January 1, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
It is kind of backwards, but medical and safety recommendations have changed in the last thirty years.  My parents were told to put me on my front to sleep and they were at a loss to help me with getting my first baby to sleep.  Today there is a huge campaign where "Back is best" and babies are laid in their bassinets on their back.


It has also been 20 years since they last held a baby and I don't think they remember most of it.  They also thought things like spanking a six month old for crying was ok, and that babies cried to get sympathy and attention.


I guess I turned out ok and I survived to adulthood (despite my mother at one point handing me off to a complete stranger because the stranger said she looked tired and offered to help.)  But is it complete hubris to hope I can do better?


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of January 1, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
I agree that the policies targeting websites are more nebulous and throw a wrench into the matter.  But most people don't even seem aware what the current legality of pornographic content even is.  That people think pornography is protected shows that most people (even well-educated people on the Motte) have no idea what is currently on the books.  This is an area where it seems the law and the culture have diverged dramatically without much attempt to update the laws.  Alternatively, many very-online people have no idea what the average US citizen thinks of Porn use and how available it ought to be.


The only sane application of the law to me would be to streamline a system where parents can sue content distributors or individuals for serving a specific pornographic image to their specific minor without sufficient age verification.  That keeps half the burden of proof on the parent to show A) their kid saw porn, B) the party being sued is responsible for the child viewing the porn and C) the party being sued did not use sufficient age verification (defined by the state.)  Depending on the damages and how simple this is to file, this could have a dampening effect on even less-than-legit-venues and individual actors on Discord.


				

				

						

							

								
							

						


						
					

				
			


			

	


			
			
				

			
		

	






		

			
			
				Culture War Roundup for the week of January 1, 2024
			
		

	

	

	

		
			

			

				

			

		

			


				

					
The experimental research Ferguson and Hartley mention are mainly varieties of showing a college student a video and asking them to answer a survey immediately after.  I would not expect that this experimental design is able to detect the effects anti-porn activists are concerned with.  Many of these college students likely regularly engage in porn, muddying the waters.


The studies on pornography showing positive effects on attitudes towards women explicitly exclude violent porn.  "It is important to note that in the present paper, the focus of our literature review and research is on pornography represented by examples such as Playboy, sexually explicit but nonviolent videos, and adult movie channels."  Garos, Beggan, Kluck, and Easton (2004)  Are parents supporting these bills worried that their children might stumble on a Playboy magazine, or are they worried their kids are watching an 18 year old girl in a simulated gang rape?




Research by Scott (1985), however, found no correlation between semi-hard-core pornographic magazine consumption and rape rates, but consumption of more soft-core magazines were correlated with rape.




They were studying such a different phenomena from what we are experiencing today.


Regarding the correlational studies, 98% of men in America have watched internet porn in the last six months.  When there are so many people in one group, and so few people in the other group, correlational statistics get wonky.  Looking at kids is the only way to get a large sample of people who haven't been exposed yet.


It also seems weird to blame the decrease in violent crime in the US on the proliferation of pornography, when there are so many other things to blame, like decreasing lead levels in childhood, increased abortion rates among impoverished groups, etc.  I am not familiar with what happened in Denmark during this time, maybe they had a lead problem as well?  But being able to cherry pick three other countries that match the correlation does not hold a huge amount of weight.  One hypothesis that fits the evidence could be that we would see even less rape if pornography had not proliferated.