OracleOutlook
๐บ๐ธ Fiat justitia ruat caelum
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User ID: 359
True, and I really do try to hold in my gasps and dismay. But there is some level where I can't help myself, it's an instinctual reaction to seeing things coming at you 60+ MPH. I wonder if there's some correlation between women being bad at throwing/catching fast balls and backseat driving.
Thanks, I deleted the other one.
One time I legitimately saved the lives of my whole family on a long trip.
We were on a highway in the mountains of Oregon, there was a "Lane Ends" sign my husband didn't notice. I saw our lane was ending and there was another car in the lane we needed to get to. I held in my, "look!" until what I thought was the last second. But it really did seem like my husband wasn't paying attention and was either going to drive us off a cliff or hit the other car.
So I spoke up, my husband braked enough that the other car got ahead, we moved behind them, and we survived. My husband confirmed that he hadn't noticed what was going on, vindicating my speaking out. We took it as a signal to stop for a rest and swap drivers.
For this one single useful time I actually possibly saved my children's lives, there have been about 100 other times where he was perfectly in control of the situation and all I did was annoy him, cause him to brake unnecessarily, etc.
I realize I'm not really good at this. A 1% effectiveness rate is very dismal. But! Considering the costs of not speaking up the one time when you really could have prevented an accident, it's better to be oversensitive than under-sensitive here.
I think men are more likely to get into deadly accidents while women are more likely to get into fender benders? That might tip the scales somewhat, a man's fight or flight instinct doesn't go into overdrive when their woman looks like she's about to side swipe that parked car at the grocery. A woman's instinct kicks in when all parties are driving 75mph.
I think Trump genuinely doesn't understand the least bit of Christianity. This is not to defend or excuse him. By itself a statement like, "The US President doesn't understand the least bit of Christianity," would have been a horrible insult just a few decades ago. Welcome to the new USA.
It's just like if someone from Japan shared a AI-Generated image of them being Jesus without realizing what they were depicting. Neon Genesis Evangelion gets away with using Christianity as an aesthetic, because it looks exotic and cool. Trump did something similar. I'm about as offended by one as I am by the other. I don't think it indicates a God Complex anymore than Hideaki Anno has shown himself to have a God Complex.
No, they didn't. The US offered to supply enriched uranium to Iran that is suitable for civilian use, a situaon similar to the UAE and Korea (two other nations that for various reasons have forfeited their ability to enrich fuel but still employ civilian nuclear programs). Iran rejected this - they want to be able to enrich their own.
Oman said, "Zero accumulation" which might be a trick of language. There is 0 accumulation if it all goes back into centrifuges. According to three other sources Iran had a 10 year nuclear enrichment plan which included:
- Completing the Khondab reactor (formerly known as Arak heavy water reactor)
- A number of other long-planned, never-built research and power reactors would be put into operation.
- Tehran demanded the ability to run 30 cascades of IR-6 advanced centrifuges and enrich up to 20% to support their 10 year plan.
Everything keeps coming back to the idea that Iran completely misread how serious Washington is being when they say, "No Nuclear Enrichment."
All the sources I have seen say the opposite - the negotiations leading up to military action was basically the US begging Iran to just give up on the nukes and Iran saying, "Nope, I'd rather die."
Laurence Norman, WSJ reporter in Germany, says, "My understanding comes from non-U.S. officials close to the talks as well as what Washington has said. This is what we have from 3 people."
Iran came to Geneva on Thursday with a draft text of a few pages as it had been asked. It did not permit the U.S. or others to keep the text. It was planning to do so Monday at the technical talks. But they talked through what was in it. But the draft text was not the key text
Attached to the text was a single piece of paper, which Iran described as its 10 year nuclear plan. The text was based around the idea that as Iran's enrichment needs expanded, it's enrichment should be permitted to expand. The paper set out an ambitious set of targets or expanding its civilian nuclear program. The new version of the Khondab reactor (formerly known as Arak heavy water reactor) would be completed. A number of other long-planned, never-built research and power reactors would be put into operation.
In order to fuel those supplies, Iran would need to run 30 cascades of IR-6 advanced centrifuges Tehran said. That's more than 5,000 advanced centrifuges. Iran would need to be able to enrich up to 20% to meet the demands. That is what Iran was proposing.
Let's compare that for a moment to JCPOA. For the first decade under that accord, Iran was permitted around 6.000 IR-1 basic centrifuges. For 15 years, its enrichment purity cap was 3.67%. In other words, Iran was saying the enrichment deal shld be weaker than the Iran deal.
I don't know why there are two such diametrically opposed narratives. I don't think there is any reason to believe the WSJ, which tends to be center left in the US, would try to run propaganda for Trump. I don't know what reason Oman might have to lie, except perhaps to increase their importance by making it sound like negotiations were going well.
Given Iran's past behavior regarding nuclear enrichment, I tend to believe the WSJ story as it is more in line with their past and present actions.
I'd rather be Spain or France than Qatar, so that's still pretty true.
You may not like the US, but I would rather be arrested in the US for suspicion of killing my father than arrested in Iran for suspicion of not wearing a head covering.
I would rather be an enemy of the US than an ally of Iran. Iran has responded to attacks by bombing civilian infrastructure of previously friendly countries. Meanwhile, the US is very precisely (as far as these things go) targeting enemy combatants and the infrastructure of war.
There is a huge moral difference between the two regimes which cannot be conflated and it really does color the rest of the analysis.
You said Iran was stockpiling conventional weapons to take Israel hostage to buy time for themselves to make a nuclear weapon.
I mean yes, it is clearly a purpose of Iran to stockpile conventional weapons until the point where attacking them would be too costly to consider. You do not dispute that their long term goal is to make a nuclear weapon.
You do not have to be a conspiracy theorist to just think, if the first objective was achieved, how would it impact the second? It's not a conspiracy, even if absolutely no one in the regime was thinking on these terms it would still be true. If Iran had enough weapons they could hold the whole Middle East hostage and we would have no ability to intervene in their Nuclear ambitions.
And they are willing to do so as we can see with their present actions. It seems that the only fallacious thinking on my part is that they would be content to hold Israel hostage, when clearly they would also turn on the Gulf Coast as well.
[Cardinal Pierre][https://x.com/BrianBurchUSA/status/2042307511504519366] also denies it.
Don't launch or abet wars of aggression (extermination?) against Iranians, and you're good.
Which is why Iran armed and trained Hamas and Hezbollah to attack Israel. Israel, which was on Iran's side during the Iraq-Iran war.
They also kill civilians en masse along with rape, torture and executions of prisoners.
When is the last time the United States of America shot over ten thousand of its own unarmed citizens for protesting? When is the last time the United States of America had as part of it's legal code a requirement to rape female prisoners before execution to prevent them from having a good afterlife? In what jurisdiction can you receive torture as a sentence in the United States of America?
Execution is fine and just but only for murder and only after a fair trial.
Is Iran intending on nuking eastern Europe?
No, that is to demonstrate how far their current delivery systems have been proven to reach, since most people don't know how far Diego Garcia is from Iran. They have been working on delivery systems to reach the US. That is the direction they are heading.
And yeah, I feel comfortable saying I want the US to be able to attack wherever it needs to, and I do not want Iran to attack me. This is only hypocrisy if you view the US government and the IRGC on equal moral footing. You seem to. I don't.
It's not a conspiracy theory that Iran has nuclear material and is working towards making nukes. This is something everyone has known and the framework everyone has been operating under for the past 20+ years.
Well yeah. The IRGC literally talks like Saturday Morning Cartoon Villains out of GI Joe. They are behind October 7th, the Houthi's, Hezbollah, etc. They are a major source of instability and terrorism in the region (not the sole source, but one of the two big ones.)
A year ago 85% of Iranians did not support the IRGC and that was before the Basaji killed 45,000 protestors. Presumably the number is higher now. You are conflating the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps with the people of Iran, who largely want their 2,500-year-old monarchy back and permission to do TikTok dances without getting raped then executed.
What are the priorities of the "Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp?" You might be able to guess it, given that the I doesn't stand for Iran but for Islam. The Iranian people, the country of Iran, is not their priority. Instead, they see it as their primary purpose, "to prepare the world for the emergence of Imam of the Age.โ Mahdism is their stated purpose, and Mahdism requires that they destroy the US and Israel to bring about the return of Mahdi.
If you doubt me, why do you think the Iranian internet has been mostly shut off except for members of the regime for the duration of the protests and war? The people of Iran do not support the IRGC, the IRGC does not exist for the benefit of the people of Iran.
Iran even before the war was on the verge of collapse. Even before the war, Iran was looking to relocate the capital because they mismanaged their water supply so badly. "Iran is looking to relocate the nationโs capital because of severe water shortages that make Tehran unsustainable. Experts say the crisis was caused by years of ill-conceived dam projects and overpumping that destroyed a centuries-old system for tapping underground reserves."
Droughts lead to food shortages, food shortages lead to famine, famine leads to millions of dead people. Yes, even in the 21st century.
As far as the actions the US took during the Cold War, people forget that the Soviet Union and Communism were legitimately bad and that communists were and still are existential threats. Sure, if you take all the actions the US did during the Cold War out of context of the Cold War, remove the enemy from the descriptions of events, they sound bad. You can do that for any conflict. "Did you know in the 1940s, the US and Britain invaded Normandy Beach in France and killed 10,000 people. Can you believe it? What did Vichy France do to the US to justify that treatment?"
Meanwhile, the IRGC has enough enriched uranium to make several nukes and had delivery systems that could reach Eastern Europe (as shown by that they were able to target Diego Garcia recently.) They were working rapidly on stockpiling conventional weapons to overwhelm Israel and hold them hostage the same way North Korea is able to hold Seoul hostage. Once that was complete, they could complete their nukes in peace, just like North Korea. They aren't doing this for the love of science! There's only one reason to have these expensive and risky programs and to keep increasing the range.
I was around five years old when my mom first told me, "I love your father, I just don't like him very much." I wasn't really great at setting firm boundaries at the time.
Just War is so interesting, because we have the historical record where it is interpreted as, "My clerics say the throne is rightfully mine by both our laws, therefore I will wage war to press my claim," as just, but now we quibble about, "Sure they are destroying the weapons and weapon factories of a regime that is hellbent on killing us/our allies and executing their own citizens, but do we understand and believe our leaders' justification for doing so?"
New Polity did a podcast on the Iranian war and although they were very harsh on the war I came away believing that the war was not only just but that not prosecuting it would have been a wrong. Because they were just ignorant on the basic details of the whole matter, and when you substitute in the facts the argument goes the other way.
how we like to interact in social settings
I think this is something where it is good to have differences. One partner more gregarious, one partner more reserved. The reserved partner makes sure the gregarious partner gets rest and gives them an excuse to bow out of social gatherings. The gregarious partner makes sure the reserved partner gets to escape their own head from time to time.
How men and women communicate will always be different. The question isn't if you can learn to communicate the same way. The question is can you learn how to understand and respect each other even when you communicate your feelings differently.
But of course, I'm just a stranger on the internet spitballing based on key phrases you throw my way. I don't really know what you and your partner are like. My sole credentials are that I'm happily married after ten years and four kids, and my parents were miserably married and I got to see that up front and personal because my mom saw me as her confidante.
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I've posted here often enough and have been honest and genuine. Sometimes the weird niche forum really does attract the upper class investor, two doctors, and other crazy weirdos like the weird gal who talks too much about parenthood and has been on more than the average number of long road trips and all that comes from that. I posed on here a few months ago that I would have loved to be a truck driver, so an anecdote about a road tip is pretty on brand for me.
I also verified just now that my husband remembers it the same as I do, that he does also think I saved our lives that one time which is why he's trying to be patient for all the other times.
I can't show absolute proof though so whatever. For what it's worth, I don't think my comment "contradicts the generalization." I openly admit that I have interrupted my husband on many more occasions where it wasn't so helpful.
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