PokerPirate
1d ago
I don't think this is true. (But would very much appreciate a correction if I am wrong.)
I recall following these negotiations closely when they were occurring and don't remember anyone citing upfront concessions as a reason not to do JCPOA. Everyone of the negotiators was familiar with the failure of KEDO in North Korea (for promising nuclear reactors now in exchange for disarmament later), and a lot of effort was spent to avoid this failure mode. Skimming the Congressional Actions section of the wikipedia article on JCPOA, I don't see any mention of legislators saying they won't vote for JCPOA because of upfront concessions, and this wapo article from the time about reasons people won't vote for it does not mention upfront concessions.
There are of course other reasons that Republicans did not vote for and eventually withdrew from the treaty, but again I do not think time-based concessions was one of them.
PokerPirate
1d ago
No, I'm observing that many governments think that the US acted in bad faith with previous inspections. This naturally results in these governments being skeptical of granting the US "anywhere/anytime" inspections even if they would be otherwise warranted.
These "other governments" don't include just Iran, but most of the UN.
PokerPirate
1d ago
Well do you agree with the criticism that the JCPOA contained a sunset clause, i.e. the restrictions on Iran ended after 10-15 years?
Is this an actual criticism that anyone levied? It's pretty standard practice for treaties/laws/contracts to sunset after a period of time with the understanding that they will be renegotiated before the term of the contract ends.
PokerPirate
1d ago
The JCPOA was negotiated after the US invaded Iraq due to patently false claims of WMD. It is widely understood that the WMD inspections led by the US/IAEA helped the US invasion in identifying/destroying military targets.
Therefore given the US's actual behavior, this restriction did (and still does) seem pretty reasonable to a majority of the outside world.
PokerPirate
1d ago
I think you are technically incorrect. Which wouldn't be a problem except that you were so pedantically annoying to the other poster.
Here is the text of FISA. It does not contain the word PRISM anywhere. PRISM is a code name for one of the tools that Section 702 authorized. (I believe your comments are blurring the distinction between being something and authorizing something.) The fact that PRISM is a code name and was classified justifies calling it a "black program". Also, I interpreted the phrase line item from OP to be budgetary, since I have only ever heard that term used in a budgetary context before.
In general I'm sympathetic to the idea that most pro-Snowden/anti-NSA folks don't actually know what they are for/against. But I don't think you ranting at them in only semi-correct formalisms is helpful.
PokerPirate
1d ago
There's no statutory line item for PRISM
I'll just jump in here to say that this is the first outright false thing in this comment.
Are you sure? I would love to see the congressional budget that funded PRISM. I genuinely don't see how there could be one for a classified program like this. My understanding has just been that NSA gets $XXX billion in the budget with nothing else said.
PokerPirate
2d ago
It seems very unlikely to me that Anthropic is going to grant random security researchers access to private logs of a 3rd party on claims that a government was hacked. If the security researchers could tie a particular API key to the hack, that alone would be impressive, and I don't see how that could be done without counterhacking the original attacker.
PokerPirate
4d ago
I looked around at a number of articles, and nothing I could find said how the security researchers were able to get their hands on the chat logs. If anyone has a source for this I would very much appreciate it!
(I'm basically curious how much access the security researchers had to the attacker's systems vs how sloppy the attacker was in leaving api keys/chat logs behind on systems they compromised. There are lots of automated tools to leave behind false flag style breadcrumbs in compromised systems, and I'm wondering if they're including chat logs now... it would surprise me if they weren't but it'd be nice to have some "evidence".)
PokerPirate
5d ago
It means "truth" in greek. The implication is that it is a system for generating/discovering truth.
Greek-derived names is a pretty standard convention in these types of projects.
PokerPirate
6d ago
LLM's doing otherwise is the product of them being deployed to the mass market, as the masses want the machine to reply more than they want the reply to be 100% correct. This is thus an inrehent flaw of LLMs, them bullshitting baselessly, but a consequence of post-training/RL.
I don't think this is technically correct. My understanding of Aletheia is that it is using the same base models available via the various web-interfaces/API and so has the same post-training/RL. It just is inside an event loop that prevents the bullshitting.
My own experience is that it's "trivial" to get any base model to self-evaluate correctness into a well-calibrated state with the right system prompts + agentic loops. Of course, I mean trivial in the mathematician-sense of "possibly dozens of hours of expert level work".
PokerPirate
6d ago
I think the paper does a decent job explaining how hard these problems are, but there's admittedly not a clear 1-sentence description anywhere and it's written for a mathematician audience.
My summary is:
- These are good graduate level textbook problems that a mid-program phd student specializing in the area should be able to solve after studying the appropriate background. (But I'm not a specialist in any of these areas so I could be underestimating their difficulty.)
- They are easier than what a phd advisor would assign to a phd student as a research problem. That's mostly because they are already perfectly well formulated to be known to be solvable. The First Proof paper makes the case that the more interesting part of mathematics is actually coming up with these questions in the first place or refining them by adding/removing conditions (something most mathematicians would agree with).
PokerPirate
6d ago
The first proof paper stating the problems was published in Feb 6. Google's solution was published in Feb 10. Human solutions were published Feb 13.
Google had an impressively fast turn around time. Even just writing the paper in 4 days is impressive work without regard to the actual experiments. I don't think there is any possibility of data leakage here.
They're called the hypernaturals and are a fascinating object of study, completely divorced from the ordinary "counting" way people think about numbers
I've never understood why mathematicians say nonsense like this. My 3,4, and 8yo boys regularly get into "who loves daddy more" fights, and as soon as one of them says "I love daddy infinity", the next one immediately says "I love daddy infinity plus one!". Obviously to them infinity plus one is an entirely different and meaningfully bigger quantity than infinity. My experience is that kids universally understand this simple concept, and that it takes a calculus teacher to beat such sensible reasoning out of them.
Don't get me started on the 0.9999... = 1 nonsense, where non-mathematicians are obviously reasoning using hyperreals and the stupid mathematicians insist on limiting themselves to the ordinary reals.
(I have a math phd and teach in a college math dept, so I feel like this is a fair insider criticism.)
PokerPirate
12d ago
Frankly, your so-called argument is just complete bullshit.
I prefer mierda. But you're probably right.
PokerPirate
12d ago
Yes, I am going to "No True Hispanic" this.
I'm not calling these people "weird". I am calling them "not hispanic"[1] because they are not using Spanish. And I am making a prediction on their backgrounds based on this observation. For example, "True Hispanics" write "furros" instead of "furries" because furros conforms with Spanish orthography. My understanding is that the word "furry" first entered the Spanish lexicon through American heritage Spanish speakers and then native hispanics started using the word furro (although I admit to not being an expert on the linguistics of Spanish sex fetish vocabulary), and I expect a similar phenomenon to be happening here.
[1] In all my posts I'm using the word hispanic to mean Spanish speaking as that is literally what the word means in Spanish. I'm not trying to use the word to imply racial/ethnic ties or to mean latam-culture-adjacent the way it is sometimes used in the US.
PokerPirate
12d ago
Fortnite/Roblox are examples of Western imperialists pushing their culture on the global south, not an indigenous cultural phenomenon. I'm using this language ironically because it is a famous fail-mode of the American-left to insist on calling hispanic people latinx. You can tell that the latinx word is not native to spanish culture because it doesn't use spanish orthography, and so native-speaking spanish people don't know what to do with the term.
I'm not doubting that there are people in Argentina calling themselves "therians". What I am doubting is that these therians are people that could meaningfully be called hispanic. In the same way, I am sure there are people in Argentina who call themselves latinx, but these people are not meaningfully hispanic. They are people who grew up in the US and were forced to re-immigrate back to their latam home for whatever reason and are trying to reconcile with the fact that everyone in their "home country" considers them foreign gringos.
To the extent that there exist therians in latam, my prediction is that they are people who got removed from the US and have tied their identity to American leftist politics. I do not believe that any "grassroots" movement in a hispanic country would come up with this term. The correct Spanish of this from-greek-word would be "teriano", and that's what real hispanic (tm) personas would actually call themselves.
PokerPirate
12d ago
Spanish uses plenty of greek roots too. They just adapt them to Spanish orthography, and this has not been adapted.
PokerPirate
12d ago
Here's the technically correct version: Spanish doesn't have any native words with a "th" in them pronounced as /θ/. The Castillian dialect pronounces "c" as /θ/ sometimes, but that's not relevant here.
PokerPirate
12d ago
PokerPirate's quote makes me think this is all just a semantic misunderstanding.
Everything about this Pro-D/Anti-D nonsense is definitely semantic misunderstanding and we're all wasting our energy on the right dressing for this stupid word salad. Let's get back to more interesting material.
PokerPirate
12d ago
In the US, we have a common trope of the C-suite executives hiring "leadership training" from former Navy SEALs. So it doesn't surprise me that you've had them trying to instill warrior ethos in software devs.
And to say that the US Army's idea of a warrior ethos "has little to do with anything that would historically be recognized as such" seems ridiculous to me.
PokerPirate
12d ago
This doesn't pass the *ahem* sniff test. The word "therian" isn't pronounceable in Spanish because Spanish doesn't have the /θ/ phoneme. So a bunch of Argentinians calling themselves "therians" sounds about as likely as them calling themselves "latinxes" (which is equally unnatural in Spanish and a phenomenon that native Spanish speakers are either unaware of or mock us gringos for). My guess is that to the extent this phenomenon exists in the hispanic world, it is pure "cultural imperialism" from the ultra-online-left imposing "therian values" on the backwards latams.
Of course, I didn't watch the youtube videos, so I could be way off base.
PokerPirate
13d ago
You don't want your artillery man to have a warrior ethos.
The United States Military Academy at Westpoint has literally been training artillery men to have a "warrior ethos" since forever. They define it as
I will always place the mission first.
I will never accept defeat.
I will never quit.
I will never leave a fallen comrade.
I graduated from USNA and I can testify that the Navy/Marines very much try to instill a warrior ethos as well in their officers.
PokerPirate
19d ago
What's wrong with publication order? "The Cage", TOS, TAS, the first six movies, TNG, DS9, VOY, Generations, First Contact, Insurrection, Nemesis, Galaxy Quest, done.
Only that this is like watching two hours of tv everyday for a year. That's way more tv than is appropriate for a kid.
PokerPirate
19d ago
Whoa... I didn't know about the Heinlein juveniles. Thanks!
Thank you for the reference! I concede that there were people who said that the JCPOA "front loaded" the benefits. I do think, however, that it is disingenuous of this group (and you) to call lifting sanctions a "front loaded" benefit.
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