Quantumfreakonomics
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Quantumfreakonomics
1d ago
If you insist on a military solution, the effects of a strait closure could have been substantially mitigated.
Refilling the strategic petroleum reserve is the obvious one in hindsight.
We could have pressured the gulf countries to invest in pipeline infrastructure to bypass the strait.
We could have waited for Venezuelan oil production to ramp up (or better yet, used the added oil security to stop worrying about the Middle East for good).
We could have brought-in Ukrainian experts to teach our forces about drone warfare before we got into another conflict.
Quantumfreakonomics
1d ago
What those who don't remember politics before Trump miss is that the people hyping-up the Mueller investigation still thought we were in the Watergate era of political scandals. Their mindset was that they just needed a fancy report in PDF format formally accusing Trump of firing Comey to cover up the Russia investigation, and then Trump would be finished.
The Supreme Court has since ruled that this is constitutionally protected conduct, but no one back in 2017 would have considered such a ruling to be possible.
Quantumfreakonomics
2d ago
This is a fully-general counterargument that can be used to defend any bad plan.
The fact is, the things that are currently going wrong in the Middle East were not unknown unknowns. They were not even known unknowns. These were well-known pitfalls that have been discussed for years. My high-school history teacher told us in a very stern voice that the Strait of Hormuz was a massively important trade route and that the reason Iran is so dangerous is that they control it.
It was not unforseeable that Iran would close the strait. It was not unforseeable that Israel would try to force America to commit by cutting-off deescalation pathways. It was not unforseeable that a ground invasion of a Middle Eastern country would turn into a quagmire.
Quantumfreakonomics
2d ago
This led to a hilarious examination where a female officer cries on the stand as "Licc'em Low Lisa" plays.
Why are the court exhibits uncropped screencaptures from YouTube? Did the cops think that having Penguinz0 thumbnails about the case in the sidebar would help them?
Quantumfreakonomics
3d ago
The doctor shortage is so bad that Emory University ended up hiring the daughter of the Iranian defense minister.
Quantumfreakonomics
5d ago
There is a difference between a uranium enrichment program and a nuclear weapons program, but there’s not that much of a difference.
Quantumfreakonomics
5d ago
and then sit on our thumbs when they renege on those promises 6-monthes later.
Is this a reference to anything? Was Iran in violation of the JCPOA prior to Trump pulling out? It looks to me like the USA was the one who reneged on their promise.
There is a trend I'm noticing where all of the "good" arguments for the war in Iran would also have applied to the war in Iraq.
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Vague suspicions of WMD-related wrongdoing.
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We've already been at war for years. We just need to finish the job.
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Killing our enemies is good actually.
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State-sponsored terrorism.
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The regime oppresses its own people.
I want to know why these arguments were wrong when applied to Iraq circa 2003, but right when applied to Iran in 2026. In the alternative, I want the case for why the Iraq War was a good idea.
Quantumfreakonomics
5d ago
I'm glad you brought up the Kharg Island thing, because it is the perfect example of showy tactical dominance that acomplishes zero strategic objectives.
All of the oil on Kharg Island is Iranian oil. The only purpose the garrison on Kharg serves is to protect the island's oil infrastructure. Drones from the mainland can still reach the Kuwaiti shipping lanes. The strategic situation before and after the airstrikes is... exactly the same.
Quantumfreakonomics
5d ago
There is enough global strategic reserve capacity to cover the missing 20% of global production for about 6 months. There will be a ground invasion of Iran if the strait is still substantially closed after 3 months (you can quote me on this). My guess is that oil stays below $125 unless Iran sinks an aircraft carrier or something.
Regarding your efficient market hyopthesis point, a lot of the guys selling futures for West Texas Intermediate are oil drillers in Midland, not geopolitics analysts. You can take their money if you're paying attention.
Quantumfreakonomics
5d ago
Zionist Twitter. Asmongold streams.
Quantumfreakonomics
6d ago
Is Bowen Yang still on SNL? I can't wait for the poorly-closeted Ayatollah Weekend Update sketch.
Quantumfreakonomics
6d ago
Maybe they’re conspiracy baiting? All of the people who would otherwise be making incisive arguments about why exactly this war is in Israel’s interest but not America’s are now wasting their time arguing about irrelevant bullshit like whether or not Netanyahu is dead.
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