Quantumfreakonomics
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User ID: 324
Quantumfreakonomics
6hr ago
I am most familiar with the ACX-comments-section arguments which inevitably go like this:
Gallant: "AI capabilities progress is incredibly dangerous. We should stop/pause/slow down."
Goofus: "But China is developing AI too. If we stop or slow down, then China will beat us and we'll die anyways, or worse, be conquered by the CCP. This is why all regulations are evil."
Gallant: "Well if you're concerned about China, then surely you support chip export restrictions. That's one regulation that isn't evil right?"
Goofus: "No, chip export restrictions are regulations and therefore evil."
Gallant: "It sounds like you don't actually care about the geopolitical implications of China having acess to advanced AI systems. I think you are arguing disingenuously because you want to make lots of money."
Goofus: "How dare you! You haven't even engaged with the many arguments in favor of selling chips to China."
The arguments in favor of selling chips to China are only ever aluded to, never stated or linked. Having now heard the arguments from Jensen Huang, I understand why they were never explicitly invoked. They presuppose that China having access to advanced AI systems is no big deal, which undermines the Xi-risk argument against X-risk mitigation.
Quantumfreakonomics
8hr ago
The blockade is the first good idea that Trump has had the entire war. It accomplishes the same strategic objective as capturing Kharg Island, can be maintained indefinitely, and is low-risk. Makes you wonder what the hell they were thinking for the first six weeks.
"You can always count on Americans to do the right thing - after they've tried everything else."
Quantumfreakonomics
4d ago
There was a Manifold market: “Will Donald Trump tweet an image of himself as Jesus Christ?” Resolved yes
Quantumfreakonomics
5d ago
I guess all those people handwringing about democratic backsliding were full of shit. Orban used to be popular, and now he's not. Simple as.
The real question is, what changed since 2022? The main things are the prolonged invasion of Ukraine and the return of Trump. Was this a foreign policy election?
Quantumfreakonomics
6d ago
America destroyed 80-90% of Iran’s military in weeks
80-90% of what?
80-90% of missiles? No.
80-90% of drones? No.
80-90% of IRGC troops? No.
80-90% of fast attack craft? No.
Hamas is Sunni
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