Quantumfreakonomics
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Quantumfreakonomics
2d ago
(This is for Variant 1:) The number that Alice should put into the computer is not her credence that in her side of the experiment, right now, the coin came up tails. Alice should put p, the weight of the coin, into the computer. All of the weird anthropic probability shifting only occurs because Alice doesn't know what day it is. Because of the way the computer works, it will only transmit the message to Bob if it is Monday. This is why the probability that Alice should put into the computer is the naive weight of the coin, and not the anthropically shifted probability that she should bet herself.
Quantumfreakonomics
2d ago
I guess if you want to get metaphysical about the idea of probability and statistics at all then you can dismiss the problem as underspecified, but you'd have to apply the same radical skepticism to coin flip odds, dice rolls, and all other stochastic phenomena. I mean, can you really say that a coin has a 50% chance of coming up heads? Any given coin flip is a completely determanistic process, only capable of coming up heads, or only capable of coming up tails. Probability is just a shorthand we use to make sense of pseudorandomness beyond our control or comprehension.
When one uses the same tools of probability and statistics that we use to analyze every other stochastic phenomenon to analyze the Sleeping Beauty problem, one finds that there are three equally likely states that are indestinguishable from Beauty's point of view. Two of them correspond to tails, and the other one corresponds to heads. The math is simple.
Quantumfreakonomics
2d ago
There were localized spikes to that level, but that’s different from a a global continuous price that high.
There are military options available to force the strait open if it comes to that. They won’t be easy or politically friendly to Trump, but they are possible.
Quantumfreakonomics
2d ago
That’s not really what I was getting at. Public display of religious attitudes isn’t forbidden in Western culture, but different neighborhoods having completely different rules kind of is.
It’s becoming more common as our culture becomes less Western, but that’s the point
Quantumfreakonomics
3d ago
There is no equilibrium oil price in the current political environment. If the strait stays closed, then the price will go up. But if the price goes up too much, then Trump will chicken out and do whatever needs to be done to open the strait back up. If the strait opens up, then the price of oil will crash. This means that there is almost no upside to speculating that the price will go above ≈ $125/barrel.
Quantumfreakonomics
3d ago
Quantumfreakonomics
3d ago
You're right that he's a bit cagey about it, but if you dig-in you can find what he would actually guess if you drugged him and ran the experiment.
"The 1/3-view is right that Beauty’s posterior credence in HEADS after being informed that it is Monday should be one-half. The 1/2-view is right that Beauty’s prior credence in HEADS, after awakening but before learning that it is Monday, should be one-half."
Quantumfreakonomics
4d ago
I can no longer look at Nick Bostrom the same way after finding out he’s a halfer in the Sleeping Beauty Problem.
Quantumfreakonomics
6d ago
This is incredibly fake. The New York Post is putting their defamation defense in the body of articles about it now:
No trial date has been set. The lawsuit remains reportable because court filings in the United States enjoy absolute privilege against defamation claims, shielding media outlets from liability as long as they fairly and accurately describe the allegations.
It grants media outlet immunity from liability provided they reproduce the allegations fairly and truthfully, meaning they cannot be sued even if the claims in the complaint later prove false or malicious.
Quantumfreakonomics
6d ago
What on Earth is wrong with these people? Why did Martin do this interview if he was just going to give obviously false and disingenuous answers to the questions that he knew were coming? Do they not know how bad this looks?
Having heard nothing about this controversy before this thread other than that it had something to do with a video game, I simply could not believe the cover art was real. I still kinda don’t.
You buried the lede. They made the little girl look like an age 9 version of the hottest chick in the college sorority, complete with makeup, bedroom eyes, and long flowing hair.
Spec Ops: The Line was controversial for intentionally making the player feel like a war criminal. Is part of the artistic vision of Pragmata to make the player feel like a pedophile?
I appreciate the resistance to ideological uglification in games, but that doesn’t mean we need to make preteen girls look like Kate Upton.
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