Quantumfreakonomics
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User ID: 324
Quantumfreakonomics
1d ago
As always, the answer is written in the scriptures. Conservatism is an audiovisual culture. The fact that Somalis in Minnesota were milking billions of dollars out of the government was knowable by reading and research. Some people did know it. Some people tried to spread the word (with some success). Knowing the truth of the proposition, "Somalis in Minnesota are milking billions of dollars out of the government," is much less powerful than seeing what these milking factories actually look like in person. No amount of text-based reporting on spreadsheets can elicit the same sense of deep cultural offense as seeing what presents outwardly as a normal American buisiness degenerate into hooded figures barking in Star Wars language in response to the slightest inquiry. The New York Times would never report that.
Quantumfreakonomics
2d ago
AI:
- Yudkowski declares AGI/ASI Achieved 10%
- We have federal regulation passed through congress to regulate AI 30%
- Anthropic announces IPO 35%
- A Chinese model is released that is widely considered to be the best coding model(not just on price per token) 15%
- AI System wins an award for a significant contribution in mathematics 30%
- A lab releases a fully autonomous drop-in worker agent that at least five fortune 200 companies implement 20%
- OpenAI revenue exceeds $30 billion 25%
- A frontier lab experiences a security incident that requires public disclosure 50%
US Domestic politics:
- Democrats have a majority in the House 80%
- Democrats have a majority in the Senate 30%
- Trump Approval rating exceeds 50% at any point 15%
- A government shutdown exceeds 14 days 15%
- total deportation in 2026 exceed 500k 50%
- Mamadani implements fare free busses city wide 60%
- Mamdani implements at least three state run grocery stores 30%
- Trump is impeached 10%
- A Major political figure is assassinated(Congress/SCOTUS Judge/Executive cabinet member) 20%
Wars:
- Israel-palestine conflict reignites 30%
- Ukraine war ceasefire lasts greater than 30 days at any point 40%
- China invades Taiwan 15%
- US officially at war with Venezuela at any point 15%
China:
- Official GDP growth below 4% 35%
- Youth unemployment (16-24) reported above 15% at any point in 2026 Lol idk
- Major Chinese property developer (top 20) enters formal bankruptcy Lol idk
- SMIC achieves volume production at 5nm or below Lol idk
Economics:
- US enters recession (2 consecutive quarters negative GDP growth) 20%
- S&P 500 higher on 12/31/26 than 12/31/25 55%
- US unemployment rate exceeds 5% at any point 40%
- Bitcoin above $150k at any point 25%
- YoY inflation exceeds 4% 35%
Technology:
- Starship upper stage (Ship) successfully lands (caught or propulsive landing) Lol idk
- Blue Origin New Glenn completes 5+ successful launches Lol idk
- Tesla releases vehicle with SAE Level 4 autonomy to consumers 40%
- US approves new nuclear reactor construction (not SMR) 20%
Quantumfreakonomics
3d ago
It was a major policy priority in Minnesota to help families financially by increasing access to childcare. If it turns out that certain demographics prefer to recieve that help in the form of kickbacks for locking their kids in a shitty warehouse every day, well, who are we to say that the policy is not working as intended?
Quantumfreakonomics
3d ago
Lets talk about the amateur expose of the Somali day-care industry in Minnesota.
This video and associated clips have been taking the right-wing internet by storm. The format is new and interesting; a charismatic zoomer social media influencer teamed up with an angry obsessive boomer autist. Their idea was to show up in person to various government-subsidized "child care centers" to see if there was any meaningful economic activity going on. The results are certainly interesting if nothing else.
The most notable finding is the complete absense of evidence of child activity at all but one of the facilities. I'm not sure how definitive this is that fraud is occuring (especially since we don't know what time of day or week these visits were made), but it is certainly suggestive. I wouldn't be eager to display my entrusted children to a group of strange men who seem oddly interested in seeing them either.
One might get the impression that these facilities are completely unregulated and uninspected. This appears to be wrong. You can look up the licenses of Hennepin County child care centers and find annual inspection results, usually with violations! The laundry list of violations found with each annual inspection did not seem to prevent these facilities from recieving 7 figures annually in taxpayer funds.
Quantumfreakonomics
5d ago
A lot of people (especially among the Reddit demographic) see this technology as fundamentally anti-human. I'm not sure if I've seen a comprehensive treatment of the issue in any one place, but this is a common opinion especially around leftist spaces. It is worth taking a moment to contemplate the assumption we all grew up with that all generated content corresponds to some sort of human experience. What happens when this assumption dissapears? Is there any meaning at all from digital content anymore?
Quantumfreakonomics
6d ago
Which American elite circles like it?
Capital holders. They benefit a lot from having a workforce that is more skilled and less lazy.
I'm not going to sugarcoat it. The next few months are going to be the worst part of your life (so far). It really is that bad. People don't like to talk about things like this. I am only doing it because I'm a few drinks in on New Years Eve.
The one bright spot is that doctors tend to be pretty liberal with prescribing pain meds for stage 4 cancer patients. It helps if you and/or whoever accompanies your father to his doctor's appointments presents as not being the kind of person who would misappropriate generous opioid prescriptions.
You are going to be visiting him every weekend. Every chance you get to see your father is a treat. This is what will get you through the week.
Work will be the only time you will be able to get your mind off of the situation. In time, you will find this as something also to be cherished.
Things will be particularly hard on the primary caretaker. Dealing with the physical consequenses of the disease will be left mostly to her. I notice you said "his wife" instead of "my mother". Whatever her relationship to you, she is now the second most important person in your life.
Everything is going to suck for a while, and then you'll be fine. You don't have cancer. You have the rest of your life in front of you once this is over. You will survive.
Good luck. Your family is counting on you.
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