RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
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User ID: 317
RandomRanger
Just build nuclear plants!
19hr ago
You are, once again, performing an update to "sheer power crushes all" with the same lab as an example, now with a spin that xAI is a second-rate lab anyway (it's much less of a second-tier lab now, you clearly see that Grok is close to the frontier).
The labs with the most compute are Anthropic and OpenAI, they're in the lead and by a significant margin. Grok is an example of how second-rate AI talent + lots of compute can beat China's best and brightest. But the central case is OpenAI and Anthropic, who have the most compute. If Kimi was ahead of Anthropic/OpenAI for a month or two, then compute supremacy is disproven.
No, achieving provably secure hardware is not harder than even the current state of AI. Your objections are of the same nature as dismissal of AGI.
Do you realize how much they'd need to do to get a provably secure hardware/software stack? They'd need to replace all the CPUs across a myriad of critical infrastructure (or at a bare minimum the entire CPC digital apparatus), probably other little chips on the motherboard too. They'd need a new CPU design by something superintelligent to get a CPU that was performant but also secure. How the hell does this happen before the US has superintelligent hacking? Cyberattack skills don't need a giant fabrication/logistical miracle before they come online. You can't RSI your way into secure systems like you can with offense.
Can you articulate your vision of how this works in more detail? It seems to me like you're suggesting China will invent, test and put on a full-body bulletproof vest before America can invent, draw and fire a pistol, when the barrel-forging is nearly done and we haven't seen more than a few scraps of kevlar anywhere on the planet.
And they (CPC) don't even believe in ASI. They're with you on the 'ASI is mostly a nothingburger' idea and are playing a balanced strategy: fusion, rockets, missiles, carriers, robots, ports, infrastructure... Like you I think they know they don't have the compute and so are hoping that it doesn't matter that much. You don't want to see US AI hegemony. I'm not too keen either. But reality has no need to appeal to us.
Nothing man-made is immensely complicated when attention is bought at the cost of electricity.
At the cost of compute, not electricity. And who has the compute? Who has the best models at any given time?
Almost all cases so far were the same sandbox from the same EA Israel company "Irregular" that got its contracts for basic reasons of nepotism and undue respect for ex-IDF intelligence officers in Western organizations. They are either inept or malicious, or both. Look up how it actually went. The rest is mostly because OpenAI is very irresponsible and bad at infra. Yes, they are bad, they hire random incompetents to do security-sensitive work and YOLO prompt everything to agent swarms.
You're saying the AI companies are incompetent, the Israelis are incompetent and US intelligence agencies too (I agree fully)... I'll add 'Frontier security' where Kimi escaped and looked stuff up on github. Qwen bitcoin mining you raised before.
So who is competent? Crowdstrike (a textbook example of how seizing just a few critical pieces of infrastructure can blow open the rest)? Windows Defender? Their Chinese equivalents? Some tired call-centre operator who doesn't want to be shouted at by an eminent official demanding a password reset? I don't think anyone's too competent and take this as supporting evidence for my point.
Incidentally, China is the only nation with a sizable quantum cryptographic communication network and is scaling up DI-QKD domains
Key exchange alone isn't enough. Plus there are all kinds of vulnerabilities or ways to bypass that: photon-number-splitting attacks, detector blinding, and time-shift attacks. Or more that a superintelligence thinks up. Everything is back and forth, defence and offence.
Grok 6 makes a comeback, edging out Kimi K5 and 3 months behind OpenAI
Grok probably can't make up the gap at this point, Anthropic and OpenAI are quite close to RSI by this point. But Grok is closer to making up the gap than anyone in China.
If by then we're still talking about "Grok 6 makes a comeback, edging out Kimi K5 and 3 months behind OpenAI", will you simply move the projected Software Supremacy moment forward, when a few weeks of a gap are just as fatal?
I believe in RSI kicking in by the end of 2027 (it'll be very dramatic, we won't miss it) so by then you can quote me and I'll be wrong.
Yes, very lucky how Americans went all in on this decisive super-nuke weapon right before their industrial capability became insufficient for power projection to East Asia.
The whole of the last 250 years of history was blatantly biased towards America. Hack writing. 'Very lucky' is a repeating theme, you have to admit.
I don't think I've been proven wrong. Grok seems to be slightly smarter, more token efficient, faster and cheaper than Kimi K3. I personally prefer Grok 4.6's personality to Kimi K3, Grok's not nearly as cringe as it used to be and boy was it cringe. Meanwhile Kimi K3 went down the Claude route of personality, more censorious and without the raw INT to render that tolerable. See figures here:
https://artificialanalysis.ai/agents/coding-agents
And with all that compute Musk can actually serve his models at scale, he doesn't need NovitaAI or whoever else to serve it. It was pretty tragic in the first few days when the requests would take aeons to come through. How much of K3 output is running on US servers?
Admittedly I am slightly biased towards Grok because it's not so politically skewed like the other AIs.
Impressive to see things so early by Deepdream. Took me a lot longer, till GPT-2/3 and some of the later proto-ChatGPTs. There were so many signs out there for those to see especially by mid-2022. Some legendary /g/ threads when people were marvelling over getting a couple paragraphs out of a 'business idea review' site based on GPT-3. And AI Dungeon of course, that was 2020.
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