RenOS
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User ID: 2051
RenOS
something is wrong
4d ago
I've looked into this a bit, and the politics of having children. Conservatives are also doing fine-ish in most places, still usually below replacements but only at like 1.8 or 1.9. As @IdiocyInAction says, immigrants in western countries are closer to natives in number of children than one may think, but it's kind of a fools errand to put a number on it since they are a mix of different ethnicities from different source countries, some of which are already substantially below replacement themselves. Generally speaking, though, if you restrict it to immigration from high-birth-rate countries specifically, they're still AFAIK above replacement. Urban vs rural is also a very noticeable difference, which also correlates with politics.
Taken together, the implication is that moderates might be more close to one, and especially progressive, urban whites probably have east asian style birth rates. Scott once mentioned that rationalists and polyamorists have substantially < 1 TFR, and I don't think they are exceptional compared to progressives.
RenOS
something is wrong
5d ago
I am surprised (again I'm not a good predictor) that such an economically disenfranchised college graduate population (if that 43% is accurate) haven't solidified into any kind of a political movement yet.
Depending on how you see it, it already has, or can't. It's a group that, collectively, has wasted spent a substantial part of the prime of their life, maybe even substantial debt, for credentials of dubious value. They already overwhelmingly vote for parties (generally green & left-wing) that promise them exactly what they want (positions based on "merit, as measured by their credentials", and a fallback of welfare). What should they do, vote for right-wing parties that call their degrees fake & gay?
Also, from their PoV, the economic immigration overwhelmingly doesn't compete with them. After all, they are the ones with the impressive credentials. Only someone who didn't get those would feel threatened by immigrants. You're not one of those losers, are you?
They're not even wrong. Not getting a degree really is strongly correlated with being a loser. For this reason, employers do look at whether you have one. Especially public institutions outright require them. Underemployed also doesn't mean the job is terrible, just below what you might have hoped for.
Depends on the data and variable, as usual. TFR specifically is a rather synthetic approach that looks at all the women in a given year, records how many had a birth in that year and their respective age, and then creates a synthetic women that sums through these average birth rates for the current year to get a total number of children. This is why it is a lot less stable than actual numbers of children and very sensitive to delayed child birth, at least in theory (in practice, delayed child birth and reduced birth rates are so highly correlated that it doesn't really matter). So no, it doesn't include children they brought with them. But it still shows that after entering western countries, they reduce the rate at which they're having children quite quickly.
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