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Are you aware of the fact that the same genes that convey resistance to the Black Plague also cause increased risk of autoimmune disease?
Are you aware those genes don't simply convey resistance to the Black Plague, they provide more generalized resistance against lethal infectious diseases?:
These results suggest that the Black Death influenced the evolution of the human immune system. “When a pandemic of this nature—killing 30 to 50% of the population—occurs, there is bound to be selection for protective alleles in humans,” Poinar says. “Even a slight advantage means the difference between surviving or passing. Of course, those survivors who are of breeding age will pass on their genes.”
And recall the Native Americans were devastated by diseases for which Europeans had developed immunity. It provided a strong genetic advantage.
The Black Plague certainly impacted all classes of people, but the poor masses were hit harder, which yes would be another selection effect suggesting eugenic pressure. Higher immunity among higher social classes is observed even today.
Scholars cite the pressures created by the Black Plague on the Catholic Church as being decisive in the Protestant Reformation in Europe, and in the breakdown of feudalism in England towards the manorial economic system which then gave way to the market system.
I already cited the genetic trajectory of Rome (genetic decline -> civilizational decline), granted that bakes in the assumption that population replacement from North Africa was dysgenic, and the subsequent correction towards Northern Europe was eugenic. But it did happen that way.
War, starvation and apocalyptic disease are terrible ways to go about it.
If you took away war, starvation, and apocalyptic disease from our evolutionary timeline we would be devolved and unrecognizable and not human. Not saying I support all those things, but the eugenic effects of these sorts of pressures: war, disease, etc. lends credence to the "hard times create strong men" meme, but it's not always true. The pressure has to be eugenic in nature to ring true. Somalis living in a shithole isn't going to make better Somalis unless there's a eugenic selection effect. "Hard times" that are also dysgenic do not make good men.
Decadence is the cultural conditions enabled by prosperity that cause dysgenics. Hard times can be, but are not always, eugenic. The Black Death, the high mortality during the Middle Ages, the violent organization of the early Roman Republic all served eugenic functions- even the collapse of the Roman Empire served an important eugenic function. "Hard times create strong men" is a nod to the eugenic function of growth and the dysgenic effects upon realization, stagnation, and ultimate decline. Goethe:
The Godhead is effective in the living and not in the dead, in the becoming and the changing, not in the become and the set-fast; and therefore, similarly, the reason is concerned only to strive towards the divine through the becoming and the living, and the understanding only to make use of the become and the set-fast.
You can see the full "Hard times create good men, good men create week men" cycle in the genetic evolution of the Roman Empire, with the collapse of the Roman Empire forming an important eugenic function reversing the dysgenic effects of late Roman decadence.
I am very skeptical, and I generally agree with @2rafa's criticisms on there being no smoking gun for the most salacious accusations, just an (increasingly abundant) amount of suggestion and innuendo. Especially since I do believe in similar heterodox views, very hesitant to put much weight on a really outlandish claim. With that said these are probably the five strongest pieces of evidence I am aware of for the claim Epstein is still alive:
- Suicide weapon not identified, I am not a forensic expert. It seems unusual to me that they could not identify the noose used for the job since to apply the requisite amount of force necessary for a suicide would seem to leave identifiable forensic traces (skin cells, worn fabric, etc.) but I'm not an expert so maybe it's more difficult than I think even when all the evidence is conveniently sitting in a single small room.
- Witness account: Allegedly hours before Epstein's suicide was even announced (can't independently confirm that), someone posted on 4chan claiming to have worked at the prison facility and having witnessed a body swap. Normally I would attribute no weight to that, but the Epstein files showed the FBI investigated that 4chan poster and identified him as someone who was an actual MCC prison guard... the recency of that account (before wild theories about body swaps that could have influenced the perception of a bystander) adds weight, but ultimately witness testimony is highly unreliably especially in chaotic and unusual situations like this. Maybe the FBI ID'd the wrong person, maybe that person wasn't even on shift or something. Camera malfunctions add some weight here though.
- Recent Photograph in Tel Aviv: Alleged, recent photograph of someone who does look quite like Epstein in Tel Aviv. There are two versions of that photograph, one of which is more expanded and bears the Gemini watermark on the bottom right, but I myself saw that version appear later than the initial "cropped" version. If it were an authentic photograph, reprocessing it with AI and claiming the authentic photograph is a crop of the forgery would be an easy and effective way to sow doubt.
- Photograph of the body being brought out of MCC prison: Some suggest the facial features of that body do not match Epstein. I see all the time though that people don't understand faces can look very different in photographs depending on a huge number of factors, although I can also see the difference in the features between the two people that people call out (mostly nose and ears).
- Activity on gaming accounts associated with him: He's a confirmed gamer from the file drop (he was banned from Xbox live). That specific account on Fortnite is definitely associated with him and shows recent activity (even geolocates in Israel IIRC). Account was privated when people started talking about it (understandable even if he weren't the actual player) and removed from Internet Archive (not sure how unusual that is). This could be explained by somebody hacking his account, or someone else using his login or playing on a console that is authenticated under his account.
Tentative conclusion: Maybe 5% chance, I hesitate to give larger confidence to the theory because it's not something I would want to be wrong about, I have no need for it to be true to really change my opinions of the overall situation. Definitely enough there though for people to plausibly ask questions and these points should be investigated to increase public trust in the face of warranted public distrust.
Edit: Fortnite responds, was a name change by a user: https://x.com/FortniteStatus/status/2019817972831780952 - More than plausible explanation.
Edit 2: Polymarket also currently gives 5% chance, didn't see that before nice: https://polymarket.com/event/is-jeffrey-epstein-alive-498
The question is what would I have preferred my ancestor to have had who was actually living in that time and place? Obviously I'm still here, meaning all my ancestors survived all that war and disease to reproduce. If they did not have that variant there's a higher likelihood I am not here.
They were doing just fine until.... they met other people. That's a great evolutionary strategy. They didn't have to survive those apocalyptic diseases like Europeans did, and they melted on first contact with the outside world.
Yes they did, and I am saying that was a selection pressure, as ugly as it is to say. The overall quality of the survivors is higher than the population before the event. That is the definition of eugenic.
I feel like you are refusing to understand what I am trying to say. I am not trying to say "war and apocalyptic diseases are good options today to improve society." I'm saying very real selection effects from these high-mortality events lend credence to the "hard times create strong men" meme and "good times create weak men" adage, but do not guarantee that a people living in a miserable situation will always become better for it. "Hard times" are often, but not always, associated with major historical genetic changes. In the case with Rome the genetic changes follow the cycle well from end-to-end: Latin tribal upstarts raise hell on the Italian peninsula, create strong imperial genetic stock and Civilization. Civilizational success leads to decadence: importing slaves from all over the world, population replacement, decay of Noble status and lineage. Decadence creates stagnation and decline. Decline creates a genetic cleansing event that creates the modern European/Italian and progresses to the Middle Ages, where these cycles of pressure continue until we are here today.
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