SerialStateLineXer
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User ID: 1345
SerialStateLineXer
5mo ago
The stuff I was doing last week is all out of bounds, I'm not going to be doing KBs or Olympic lifts for a while.
I don't know exactly what's wrong with your back, but two-handed kettlebell swings have actually really helped when I've tweaked my back, as I do every five years or so.
What I do is start with a conservative range of motion, and then after several reps the pain-free range of motion increases a bit. I continue until I can do the full range of motion pain-free. Usually the pain comes back after a while, but it gives me short-term pain relief and probably accelerates healing.
Not sure if this works as well for the upper back, but it's worth a try. Generally you want to use the injured muscles ASAP to increase blood flow to the injured tissue, rather than just resting it completely.
SerialStateLineXer
5mo ago
This would have to be a defect in mitochondrial proteins that are coded for in nuclear DNA, right? The mother obviously doesn't have the disease, or she would never have lived long enough to reproduce. Since mitochondrial DNA is inherited from the mother without recombination, then it can't be carried in mitochondrial DNA, unless it's a de novo mutation.
Many (most?) mitochondrial genes have migrated into nuclear DNA, so an autosomal recessive disease could explain how she was able to inherit the disease without either of her parents having it.
SerialStateLineXer
6mo ago
AFAIK Mizrahim don't have especially high average IQ (as I understand it their lower average SES is a point of contention in Israel), so they don't really count for purposes of measuring the size of Israel's Jewish talent pool. I also wonder about self-selection of Israeli Ashkenazim. Maybe they didn't get the cream of the crop?
SerialStateLineXer
6mo ago
The impression I seem to get from the internet is that lawyers are all miserable alcoholics who wish they had become software engineers.
20 years ago, my girlfriend's CS professor told me I should quit working at Microsoft and go to law school because that's where the real money is. I almost did it, too, until I found out that you have to work like 80 hours a week for years to make partner and start making said real money. Tech is best for smart lazy people.
Interesting guy, though. He taught theory of computation, but I don't think he actually knew anything about software engineering. I can't believe he's still alive; back then he weighed at least 300 pounds and had recently had a stroke.
SerialStateLineXer
7mo ago
And interest rates were kept artificially low for 14 of those years.
I see this claim a lot, and it's based on a misunderstanding of what the Fed actually does. If the Fed tries to lower interest rates below the natural rate of interest and hold them there, we get inflation. Now, not after 14 years.
What the Fed actually does is help markets clear faster by targeting the natural rate of interest, i.e. the rate at which the amount of money people want to lend is equal to the amount other people want to borrow. This results in savings being efficiently channeled into investments. If the Fed sets rates too high, there are excess savings that don't get borrowed, causing a recession. If the Fed sets rates too low, it causes inflation.
The fact that inflation was unusually low in the 2010s tells us that the Fed was more or less correctly targeting the natural interest rate, or even a bit above it; the natural interest rate may have actually been negative in the early 2010s.
The huge spike in inflation in 2021 was not the chickens coming come to roost after 14 years of artificially low interest rates. It was the result of a sharp increase in the money supply that made the early rounds of QE look like anthills, combined with excessive stimulus, and pandemic savings burning holes in the pockets of middle-class consumers.
SerialStateLineXer
7mo ago
I'm currently about 154lbs, and by the numbers, in order for me to exercise enough to lose a whole pound I have to run a literal marathon.
That actually might not be enough. The usual estimate is 100 calories burned per mile, which means that a marathon should burn 2,600 calories, which is not enough to lose a pound of fat.
SerialStateLineXer
7mo ago
Now you make me want to quit drinking. The only problem is that I never started.
SerialStateLineXer
8mo ago
Yeah. The math is a bit counterintuitive if you're used to thinking about income taxes. For example, a 100% sales tax only creates a tax wedge of 50%, and a sales tax can go over 100%. To create the 95% tax wedge that inspired the song "Taxman," you'd need a 1,900% sales tax.
SerialStateLineXer
8mo ago
That chart is not actually the median mortgage payment, but what a mortgage for the median home sale price at current mortgage rates would be, correct?
SerialStateLineXer
8mo ago
The reason to use free weights rather than machines is that you activate all kinds of smaller stabilizing muscles that aren't hit when using a machine because the machine guides the path of the weight for you.
Why do so few people take this to its logical conclusion and use dumbbells instead of barbells for presses? Dumbbells require more stabilization than a barbell does. At some point you get too strong for the heaviest dumbbells at your gym, but most people never get there.
SerialStateLineXer
8mo ago
Note that shitty parenting likely correlates with heritable psychopathic tendencies. It's like ACEs (adverse childhood experiences). There's a ton of research showing that ACEs are correlated with had life outcomes, with the researchers and media glibly asserting causality, but if you actually look at the canonical list of ACEs, it's markers of bad parenting like "abused by parents" and "parent went to prison," not random bad luck like "raped by a stranger on the way home from school" or "injured in a serious car accident."
So there's an obvious genetic explanation that's being almost totally ignored by the people who are supposed to be the experts.
SerialStateLineXer
11mo ago
It's not about what the revenues are used for. It's about internalizing the externalities. When you use roads, that imposes a certain cost on society, because it costs money to build and maintain the roads, and only so many people can use them at the same time. When you burn fuel, you impose a certain cost on society by contributing to global warming, and also emitting other pollutants.
US gas taxes might be high enough to cover one of these, but are probably not high enough to cover both of them. So maybe burning a gallon of gas has a total social cost (including the cost of extracting the gas, road upkeep, and pollution) of $3.50, but you only have to pay $2.75. Or whatever. This means that if you get $3 of value out of burning a gallon of gas, you'll do it, even though it does $3.50 worth of damage. That's a bad outcome. We want an incentive structure in which you only do $3.50 of damage if you get at least $3.50 in value from it.
SerialStateLineXer
1yr ago
Now that you mention it, I'm having trouble finding it now, but I remember reading about some Chinese neighborhood in the US or Canada that ostensibly had a very high poverty rate, but was full of million-dollar houses, the explanation being that there was a ton of tax evasion going on.
SerialStateLineXer
1yr ago
I do think it's best for very old works to be in the public domain just because the marginal impact on incentive to create of the hundredth year if royalties is virtually nil, but I've always kind of rolled my eyes at claims that inability to crib famous character designs is holding back a tsunami of creativity. Who are these people who are so creative but can't come up with their own characters?
SerialStateLineXer
1yr ago
It's not a question of how wide the confidence interval is, but of how much of the interval is greater than 1. For a 95% confidence interval, a one-tailed p of 0.025 should correspond to a CI with an upper (or lower) bound of 1.0. Since the p value is only slightly greater than 0.025, I would expect the upper bound of the CI to be closer to 1.
I checked confidence intervals of hazard ratios for several other published studies and found that the CIs were consistently geometrically symmetrical (i.e. upper/point = point/lower) around the point estimate, but now that I think about it, they all had large samples. I'll have to look into why small sample can result in asymmetric confidence intervals.
SerialStateLineXer
1yr ago
In Merck's recent press release for the results of their phase 2 melanoma trial, they said this:
Adjuvant treatment with mRNA-4157/V940 in combination with KEYTRUDA reduced the risk of recurrence or death by 44% (HR=0.56 [95% CI, 0.31-1.08]; one-sided p value=0.0266) compared with KEYTRUDA alone.
Does that confidence interval look wrong to anyone else? It should be geometrically symmetrical around the point estimate, right?
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0.56/0.31 = 1.81
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1.08/0.56 = 1.93
Even making the most accommodating assumptions about rounding, I can't make the math work out:
0.5649 / 0.3050 * 0.5649 = 1.046
Also, 1.08 is weirdly far from 1 given that the one-tailed p value is only 0.0266. I would expect it to be just barely greater than 1.
SerialStateLineXer
1yr ago
A fat teenage boy tried to sell me a blowjob, and then just grabbed my crotch when he realized that telling me that he gave straight men blowjobs all the time wasn't working. I smacked his hand away and he left me alone. Like you, this freaked me out more than I would have expected it to, but only for the rest of the day or so. I didn't really do anything special to take my mind off it.
SerialStateLineXer
1yr ago
Well, some people eat chicken sashimi.
Torisashi, it's called. People expect it to taste bad, but it actually tastes better than cooked chicken, IMO.
It's probably dangerous in the sense that you're more likely to get food poisoning by eating it raw than by eating it cooked, but the chances are still low in absolute terms, at least based on my experience of eating raw chicken several dozen times and never getting sick.
SerialStateLineXer
1yr ago
What I would do myself: I'd go "yeah I knew it, wireless earbuds are a stupid product" and go back to wired forever.
I use wired headphones with a USB dongle on my Pixel 6. There's a loud white noise effect that plays whenever the volume falls below a certain threshold.
SerialStateLineXer
1yr ago
Are Canadian Muslims high achievers like in the US, or an underclass like in Europe?
SerialStateLineXer
1yr ago
If it makes you feel any better, both major parties are pretty hard at work on ruining the US, so it may not be the best place to live for much longer.
SerialStateLineXer
1yr ago
Canned fish is the main source of edible bones. The canning process makes them brittle and easy to chew. You want ones that haven't been completely deboned.
I imagine there's something you could do to get the calcium out of bird or mammal bones, but it's probably a lot of work. You might as well just take supplements.
Actually, that's not a perp walk. The article says that they were put on home detention. That seems really weird for someone accused of trying to sell secrets to Russia.
SerialStateLineXer
1yr ago
This is a problem that I don't think has a good solution. For example, consider the principle of academic freedom. On the one hand, there are major benefits to academics having the ability to conduct research without being constrained by the government. On the other hand, this can also go horribly wrong, as in the current situation where we have entire fields that have flushed rigor down the toilet and are just churning out straight-up propaganda. It's not clear to me that there's a way to have the benefits of academic freedom without the pitfalls.
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