Shakes
10d ago
The "Clavicular Thesis" would be closer to "Looks are the most important thing, more important than everything else." You could say, yeah, everyone knows looks are important, but since you're not currently a looksmaxxer, clearly your preference for looks is weaker than Clav's. And he'd say your preference was wrong.
In a way it's almost saintly, of course everyone knows virtue is good but are you actively cultivating your virtue? So you become a hero by embodying virtue at a higher level than everyone else. I guess in some sense that's just what it means to be an idol.
As for scam courses and money, the modal donation to a streamer is in the $5-$10 range. The scam courses are almost a separate category of behavior. (I think the problem is actually somewhat class-coded, participating in that world is low-status, it's like Alex Jones advertiser supplements, Trump University, influencer bodybuilding routines, etc. There's nothing wrong in principle with paying for any of these things but we think of it as low-status.)
Shakes
11d ago
"Iran will stop enrichment they just won't allow inspectors in their country to prove they aren't doing enrichment. (They can't do enrichment anyways because US bombs destroyed their capacity to do enrichments, but bombs don't work and are a bad idea.)"
Please explain why this is evidence that Kushner and Witkoff were incorrect, that Iran is a good boy who was turning his life around, and that we should actually take the word of an anonymous official in a Guardian Article that Witkoff and Kushner are instead traitors manipulating America for their own sectarian benefit.
Shakes
11d ago
“It appears diplomatic options were still viable and there was no evidence of an imminent missile threat to Europe or of Iran obtaining a nuclear weapon,” Saville Roberts told Cooper.
America and Israel bombed Iran and they immediately started bombing other countries, so what does Saville Roberts know anyways?
Kent's resignation might be meaningful for all sorts of political-coalitional reasons but it begs the question -- who was right, Joe Kent or Donald Trump? In other words, is Iran a threat to America's interests, or only a threat to Israel's interests? Well, I don't think that's a very hard question. There's a new rising right-wing that is totally isolationist and really would pull out of the Middle East entirely but Trump has never been of that school and we don't need to resort to The Israel Lobby for an explanation. Theocratic Iran is one of America's deepest enemies. They fund Hezbollah and Hamas, they threaten America constantly. "Iran is not a threat" has never been Trump's position, even if it's the position of some of those allied with MAGA, and in this case it's not hard to decide who has the better argument.
Shakes
11d ago
Kent goes above and beyond trying to paint over it being the president's own choices and he still gets treated this way, cause of course.
Yes because that's how that works. What is Trump supposed to say, "Maybe Kent has a point maybe I have been duped and lied to?" Don't be ridiculous. Trump's criticism is extremely mild here, which is about what you deserve when you leave with a big dramatic announcement while at least not criticizing the boss in harsh terms. But what exactly did you expect? Kent could have left quietly, he didn't have to put out a big statement saying, Donald Trump made a huge mistake, let's consume a news cycle with a high-profile resignation about how Donald Trump made a huge mistake. You resign in situations like this for your own sense of integrity and maybe the hope that this stores up goodwill for some other political endeavor in the future. That's all priced in to what it means to resign for reasons of conscience. If anything "he was weak on security" is about on the same level as "Trump was duped" -- which is to say this is not so far an escalation on Trump's part and this is just how men disagree with each other.
Shakes
11d ago
Yesterday he said he talked to a former President who disclosed to Trump that the president regretted not attacking Iran like Trump did. A claim that was promptly disputed by every single living President.
This is just "he said she said". None of the presidents even denied it as such, it was just statements from their aides. Do you feel even a little dishonest characterizing this in the maximally negative way while yourself complaining about bullshit and lies?
Shakes
11d ago
Well, from the Guardian article you link:
Powell has long experience as a mediator, and one source said Powell brought an expert from the UK Cabinet Office with him. One western diplomat said: “Jonathan thought there was a deal to be done, but Iran were not quite there yet, especially on the issue of UN inspections of its nuclear sites.”
Ok, so Iran offered this great deal where they concede on everything except the most important point that proves they're actually following through on their concessions -- why won't mean evil Donald Trump and the Israel Lobby do a deal?
Shakes
11d ago
I am irreverent in the extreme. I don't subscribe to language being "coded" to signal tribal loyalty.
Well no you don't get to decide whether language is interpreted because it already is. You don't have to subscribe to any particular interpretation yourself but obviously when we read comments on the internet we use limited information to interpret what perspective is being communicated. That's how language works. So when you say "Donny" as opposed to "Donald Trump" or "Trump" or any alternative you are obviously putting some kind of spin on what could be described in some other term. And the word "Donny" is a diminutive or even a pejorative compared to just "Trump". This is all priced in, this is how language works inherently. I'm just explaining this because this informs my approach in treating your first comment to me as more hostile than neutral.
And in this case you are in fact critical of Trump so my read seems more than justified. (Outside any other debate at the object-level about Trump and Minneapolis, where I think you're wrong.)
Shakes
12d ago
We are two weeks into a war and you are declaring that Trump must be blind to “obvious flaws” because Iran hasn’t totally collapsed. Get some perspective. If Trump wanted to we could bomb Iran back to the Stone Age by destroying all their electrical infrastructure. Meanwhile, we are sitting at home.
the opposite on a high profile promise
Trump has always promised to fight Iran and so far this is not another Iraq Forever War.
Shakes
12d ago
Your use of “Donny” is coded a certain way so perhaps I am over-reacting but generally I’m tired of the pattern where some blame Republicans for the shutdown(s) while explicitly advocating for pressing the defect button. I mean nothing personally, this is just an arguing forum and we can all shuffle around next debate
Shakes
12d ago
Sounds like you’re in favor of not funding DHS then — great, thanks for proving my point!
Shakes
12d ago
Trump has done more to follow through on his promises to voters than any president in memory. Immigration tariffs deportations taxes emissions regulations vaccine mandates Paris climate accords government layoffs birthright citizenship. He pardoned the J6ers, he moved our Israeli embassy. This is the first net-negative period of migration in fifty years. Like it or not this is what it looks like when Trump keeps his promises — mostly it looks like the base likes it. Which isn’t just to appeal to popularity but to say there is a fairly simple measure of whether Trump’s voters feel betrayed. They do not.
slavish obedience to the latest batch of Israeli 'intelligence'
If you think Trump is taking Israeli intelligence over American intelligence you have crazy priors about what is going on in the Oval Office.
Shakes
12d ago
It’s just unfortunately not something MAGA can change.
The Alt Right has no avenue to influence the 80yo Trump like that
Ok yeah MAGA is weak and powerless Trump has betrayed us you’re right all we can do is post on Twitter. The key thing is that this explanation absolves us of having to do anything differently, because if it were the case that Trump isn’t beyond influencing and we gave up for nothing boy that would be a shame
Shakes
12d ago
Yes I would like to see it ended too but it changes this calculus of who is to blame. “The Republicans”? Trump called for eliminating the filibuster. MAGA wants to end the filibuster. Blaming “the Republicans” makes it sound as though MAGA is to blame, too extreme, maybe they should abolish ICE so Democrats feel comfortable letting planes flies again?
Shakes
12d ago
I was there before anyone, I was there from escalator day and faced a lot of doubters and social consequence. The arguments I could recount… The nationalist current was formless. It was there but it had no shape. In Britain it arrived in Brexit and then was squandered for ten years because there was no other figure or leader to champion it — look at Britain for an idea of where America could be without Trump, look to Britain for an idea of what “squandering MAGA” would actually mean.
He’s on Fox News. That’s pretty much it. Unfortunately he is 80 years old.
I don’t really believe this “Trump gets everything from Fox News” meme mostly spread by left-wing journalists painting a picture of Trump the simpleton. (By other accounts he consumes a lot of news in all forms.)
However that’s not really my point; if Trump does just get all his idea direct from Fox News, then it’s a failure of the alt-right not to fight for it. Who’s in the editing rooms, who’s in scheduling? Ten years on the feeling is that Fox is basically no better no worse than it used to be — well at least we still have shitposts and memes!
This does allows Tucker to continue the true “alt right” spirit though.
Tucker is a grifter and not a very successful role model for how a political movement should function.
I think there are those like myself who will be voting straight D.
Well if you support unlimited immigration and Minneapolis daycare fraud and never arresting criminals on the trains I don’t really trust your opinions on the original MAGA spirit.
Shakes
12d ago
Trump is right, MAGA is Trump. He created the whole political movement. The broader alt-right was inchoate and without any opportunity before Trump gave it form.
It’s actually the failure of the alt right that Trump is in power and they can’t get more of what they want. Remember that Scott Adams meme about how Democrats successfully branded Trump as Hitler, then Hitler won? Time for reflection. Mark Levin opposed Trump, now Trump likes him. Time for some reflection.
What I mean is, these impotent Twitter squabbles actually don’t mean anything. The broad base of MAGA still supports Trump and the Republican Party loves Trump. The people braying that Trump has betrayed them, however influential they might be in the small world of right-wing New York / SF influencers — don’t matter. Objectively they don’t matter because Trump has no compunctions about disappointing them. He doesn’t think about them at all. Mark Levin apparently does matter because Trump is thinking about him.
the 2016 alt-right energy that propelled Trump into office is out
The alt-right is not why Trump won in 2016 at all. It is simply what was easiest for this insular media ecosystem to write about. Insofar as that definition of “MAGA” died it died a long time ago when Milo got canceled for being a pervert and Bannon got fired for leaking like a sieve. But again that’s not what actually matters.
hopefully the "plan trusters" now can stop pretending otherwise.
This plan truster is very happy thank you very much.
Shakes
12d ago
I’m still trying to figure out how this is their fault, given the Republican trifecta;
Republicans voted to keep it open but Democrats didn’t. It takes 60 votes to avoid a filibuster. You already know that because you admit it takes two parties to negotiate.
Shakes
13d ago
If you’re not aware of the obvious importance of Kharg Island and the fact it would trivially be in any war plan with Iran you are actually displaying a disqualifying level of ignorance here. I don’t even mean this as a personal attack: you clearly do not know the first thing about which you speak.
Acquiring the site where Iran processes 90% of its oil is just a weird fixation of Trump’s? I don’t know how to parse this except as another form of TDS.
That fact that Trump is and has been aware of Kharg Island demonstrates that he does know what he’s talking about, that US military plans were not made up in the 24-second news cycle, and that the hyper-cynical take pursued by ultra-skeptics is more based in emotion than anything else. You’re wrong, the US military does have a war plan and denying that is a conspiracy on par with denying the landing on the moon.
Shakes
14d ago
The prose here is extremely clunky and betrays a cringe personality but this anecdote betrays charm and an ounce of charisma. (That’s why it was chosen for the book, which is what makes it cringe.)
Shakes
14d ago
Trump has been aware of Kharg Island for 40 years:
https://x.com/sethjlevy/status/2032516317866029535?s=46
Again and politely: I think this is a form of TDS. Every reasonable expectation of how a war works is thrown out the window because Donald Trump is in charge. How long is it supposed to take to invade Kharg Island? Did they wait to destroy Iranian air capabilities first? Were they waiting on other intelligence? Did the Americans already have war plans for this contingency? The Israelis? The Saudis?
Well, since Donald Trump is the one in charge all these questions disappear. We know from our vaunted backseat driver theoreticians’ armchairs that the invasion of Kharg Island was unexpected, or should have happened sooner, or later, or has unimaginable consequences, or can’t possibly be a good idea. Or whatever. I heard the war plans were drawn up in crayon and Trump had to have explained to him what “oil” is. Hegseth is so evil he made the plans worse, but he was also too drunk to make them effective. If only we had General Milley back he would have saved everything
Shakes
14d ago
What is the option for Europe here? Kill them all? Let them starve on the border? Create a humanitarian crisis in Jordan and Turkey?
Complaining about your own weakness as you blame America what else do you want me to say? You don’t have the heart to kick them out, you don’t have the heart to keep the from coming in, you don’t have the heart to build your own military and stop America from getting involved. (Which we do on your behalf now that we produce all our own oil.)
Look I say this with love for Europe but it’s actually not all America’s fault here. However much blame you want to give us you are a continent of sovereign peoples, some of this is actually your fault
Shakes
14d ago
This has been going around on Twitter so forgive the link to the slop account:
https://x.com/sethjlevy/status/2032516317866029535?s=46
Contrary to a lot of discussion here Trump has been aware of Kharg Island for 40 years (it would be hard not to be, it’s one of the central points in any war game over Iran)
You are welcome to still be skeptical or pessimistic or believe whatever you want… but clearly details about what to do with Iran are not news either to Trump or to the people running the military.
Given that the number floated recently by Trump was “five weeks” I’m willing to wait that long at least before proclaiming that Kharg Island constitutes some kind of spiraling out of control when — it was probably always going to be targeted. Because it has to be, because it’s one of the most important chokepoints on the map.
And like it or not there actually is a capital-P “Plan” that the 24-second news cycle isn’t really capable of judging.
Shakes
14d ago
Sub par targets? Kharg Island is one of the most important targets in any Iranian scenario because it’s where all the oil gets processed. Please stop thinking in hour-long news cycles and imagine what an Iranian operation would look like if it was planned to take five weeks and we were only halfway into it.
Shakes
14d ago
I think Kamala will have a lot of power because she presents a fantasy. If a Kamala wins 2028, it’s a mulligan, Trump was just a fluke after all, we’re back to the original timeline. She won after all it just took a while. Anybody else is an explicit acknowledgement that Trump won and we’re living in his shadow.
Iran's hostility to America starts with the hostage crisis and continued through its support for Hamas and Hezbollah, through attacks on Americans in Iraq, through its tendency to kidnap American citizens passing through Iran, through cyberattacks, through missiles and drones used to attack American allies, through dozens if not hundreds of attacks on America and its allies in the Middle East. Really, this is ridiculous, Iran is not poor little innocent Iran, they are one of America's greatest and most consistent enemies. They have been for fifty years. They call us the Great Satan. Maybe in some alternate timeline where we weren't allies with Israel we could hold hands and sing kumbayah. So what?
The Hill: Inside Iran’s long history of attacks on US: A timeline
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