Shakes
1mo ago
The centrifuges we knew about were mostly destroyed in the July 2025 12-day war. I'm not aware of any additional centrifuges being destroyed in the 2026 war.
I’m not sure that’s true:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/3/iaea-confirms-some-damage-to-irans-natanz-nuclear-facility
Either way I’m not convinced the relevant details would be public. All the details we could discuss are going to be classified.
My assumption is that the American military knew where all of Iran’s nuclear sites were and bombed them. I don’t know that that translates to 100% destruction but I’m pretty confident we would have gotten most or all of what matters.
In which case, all that’s left is to destroy the remaining nuclear dust.
The sanctions relief and reconstruction funding in the MOU probably moves the date forward by more than this by making it easier for Iran to rebuild the destroyed centrifuges.
They can’t rebuild anything without American satellites and intel knowing about it. And we would just be back here again, and America could bomb them all again.
I think the idea is to break out of the cycle and give Iran a stake in something greater than Nuclear Development. It’s possible it won’t work out, but I don’t think that’s a flaw with the deal as such.
Shakes
1mo ago
l think this is somewhere between moon landing conspiracies and Holocaust denialism.
Forget Trump, what was Obama doing trying to restrict Iran’s nuclear programs? This is absurd.
Shakes
1mo ago
This is not a “pinky swear”. We destroyed their nuclear facilities and now we are destroying their nuclear material.
Shakes
1mo ago
I would dispute even "conditional surrender", at least as far as the Iranian side is concerned. It is (or will or would be) a negotiated peace. Both sides make some concessions, so both sides have some points they can try to sell as victory.
I was with you for the first paragraph.
In your scorekeeping you’re leaving out the major point: Iran’s nuclear weapons program is being destroyed! This was a major explicit goal of US foreign policy for the last 50 years. The centerpiece of Iran’s foreign policy is gone.
Shakes
1mo ago
People on this forum were confidently predicting that Iran would toll the strait and this would be evidence that Iran had won. I predicted it would not happen and that this would be evidence that Iran lost.
So far the strait remains untolled.
Shakes
1mo ago
upon the implementation of this MoU.
Iran will get temporary waivers until the sanctions expire. The sanctions will expire when a final deal is reached (see point 7).
What quick blow did he strike against North Korea?
We didn’t even get that far because the Norks agreed to talks after Trump threatened them.
Shakes
1mo ago
The Islamic Republic of Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran have agreed to resolve the disposition of stockpiled enriched material pursuant to a mechanism that will be mutually agreed upon, in accordance with the schedule mentioned in paragraph 7, with the minimum methodology to be down blending on-site, under the supervision of the IAEA.
We destroyed their nuclear facilities and now we’re going to destroy the material that remains.
They'll just pretend they're enriching
Well now you’re just arguing that Iran isn’t going to follow the deal. If that’s the argument it doesn’t even matter if the deal is good or bad.
Shakes
1mo ago
We are going to acquire Iran’s nuclear dust and destroy it. Iran will not pursue nuclear weapons. I think this is a huge victory, because it solves one of the largest problems of American foreign policy of the last 50 years.
The money and sanctions and aid are contingent on a round credibly abandoning their nuclear aims.
In fact, Iran will begin to become a normal nation. It will not happen as quickly as it did when we conquered Japan. But that is what is being advanced here. If I ran no longer seeks nuclear weapons, and is no longer pursuing war with its neighbors, why are they our enemy? We can’t exactly become allies overnight. But we can at least figure out what regional problems remain to be discussed, and solve them at the negotiating table. In peace.
This is similar to what Trump did with North Korea, and it’s similar to what Trump did with Venezuela. Neither of those countries can be understood as allies. In fact, they both still pose enormous threats. But they are now working within normal diplomatic relations that fall short of war. And if they continue to cooperate, relations will continue to develop, and then they can become rich.
This is the Trump Doctrine. You establish overwhelming force over an adversary, strike a quick blow, then negotiate.
Shakes
1mo ago
but perhaps some plan trusters can help me out.
Sure yeah I'd be happy to.
Iran hands over the uranium and pinkie promises not to make a nuke [...] Those are the kind of things that would make me say the war was a success. Now it's your turn!
The MOU:
The Islamic Republic of Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons.
Shakes
1mo ago
The Islamic Republic of Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons.
No toll on the strait, Iran's nuclear material will be destroyed, and diplomatic relations between Iran and America are approaching normal status. Iran's military has been substantially reduced by American bombs. In exchange Iran will be allowed to rejoin the global economic system and begin redevelopment. Matters relating to Israel and broader regional peace will be postponed for the future, but are clearly progressing in a good direction. This is broadly what I have been predicting for months now.
I'm sure that many are going to balk at the $300 Billion and proclaim that this is a bad deal. But if Iran gives up its nuclear program and stops threatening regional war and international trade, the Iran concern is over.
Shakes
1mo ago
I've been to Vibecamp a few times so I'll take the opposite side: I don't see the big deal.
I've certainly never seen anything weird at Vibecamp of the kind that is imagined here. If I had seen that, or thought it was a realistic possibility, I would probably change my answer.
However, most of what happens is fairly normal. A large group of twitter nerds and postrats spent a weekend in the woods camping and playing games. There are campfire games and marshmallows. There's are a few traditional entertainments. Usually somebody sets up a "tea room" decked out with mattresses and decorations where everyone lays on the floor. Someone sets up a rotating "secret bar" that starts operating in some hitherto-unused location after the sun sets. Probably somebody is running a workshop where everybody practices writing tweets. There's a cafeteria with regular meals but the food sucks so some campers will set up their own provisions. I became very friendly with the guy who does a crawfish boil every year.
The campground is large and the families who bring their kids are given cabins and tents on one side of it. Adult activities are placed far away at the other end of the camp. And in my experience these two kinds of activity never intersected anyways: the children are long in bed by the time people really start drinking in earnest.
Maybe the good nerds of twitter can't explain themselves without opening broader discussions about morals and sexuality and tolerance of drugs. But in practice it's a little like complaining that the same internet has websites with Bluey and websites with porn.
Shakes
1mo ago
Vibecamp just an annual convention where people from this scene rent a campground in the woods for a long weekend and hang out. Dancing, cooking, kayaking, cabins and tents, various workshops and physical games. By "this scene" I mean rationalists, "tpot," tech nerds who read Scott Alexander, etc. A good number of the people there would be familiar with The Motte, although probably not a majority.
Shakes
1mo ago
Well, no. The fact that the people who listened to Iranian claims have been proven wrong is good evidence against listening to Iranian claims yet again.
Shakes
1mo ago
No my point is that even the rumors of what a “Losing” deal looks like are better than what was confidently predicted three months ago by critics. Iran was supposed to be in control of the straits right now.
Shakes
1mo ago
Space datacenters are probably inevitable if we keep increasing the compute power available in space as satellites get cheaper. The question probably is whether it will make anything efficient outside of orbit.
Shakes
1mo ago
I actually think this is true across a lot of topics. I observe that leftists generally have a better intuition for beauty than conservatives do -- because liberals know exactly what to deface. I.e., if we participate in a body-positivity movement with slogans like "Health At Every Size," we all know which sizes are being promoted. You don't have to promote that it's ok to be healthy and fit. Likewise the climate genocide paint-throwers will try to deface Van Gogh and Leonardo, not Piss Christ.
Shakes
1mo ago
Reality Winner has been a literal pink-hair although not at the time of her arrest.
Shakes
1mo ago
A few months ago I was assured that Iran was going to acquire nuclear weapons and toll the strait. Now that that seems unlikely to materialize the unsubstantiated rumor is something else. Because the aim of the war, which is the same thing everyone has said for 30 years, is that Iran could never be allowed to acquire nuclear weapons. Which they are now further away from than ever.
Shakes
1mo ago
But is that how we really want the main industry holding up the American economy right now to be treated? The stakes are so much higher here than his traditional shenanigans.
Maybe Anthropic could hire Don Jr. to its board of executives?
Shakes
1mo ago
Yeah this is extremely standard export-control, the novelty is in applying it to an AI model.
Shakes
1mo ago
TSA has a very good idea of which passengers are most likely to be terrorists, but because of this proto-woke "Everyone is a security risk" dogma we make everyone take off their shoes. (Or used to, before we invented more invasive scanners.)
It's the same for the police and law enforcement: profiling works because risk is not uniformly distributed through human populations.
And there are always exceptions and sometimes the risk isn't what a naive stereotype would assume. But between a Catholic and a pink-haired SJW I think we all know which description is likelier to press the defect button out of adherence to an all-encompassing creed.
Shakes
1mo ago
We don't even have the terms of the deal and you're already declaring it a loss. I also don't think you actually know how many munitions were actually expended because the true size of America's arsenal is going to be classified. It seems like you're getting all your information from a social media fog of war that isn't all that accurate -- it's not true that Iran controls the strait when the American navy can blockade it and run ships through it against Iranian interference. It sounds like you just want to declare it an American loss and have decided that the only reliable information is the Iranian propaganda that declares it is one.
I had mice in my apartment. I guess pest control didn’t solve the problem because they could always come back.
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